本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 今年以来，A股、港股、美股等股票市场均因关税问题出现了较大的波动，但在流动性宽松和AI技术不断取得突破的助力下， 主要股指在今年 1-11月均录得不同程度的上涨 。A股主要指数中，创业板指以超42%的涨幅领涨。港股的恒生指数、恒生科技指数涨幅均超25%。美股三大指数 中纳斯达克相对领涨，涨幅约为21%。 | 证券市场 | 指数名称 | 今年1-11月 涨跌幅 | 今年1-11月 最大涨幅 | 今年1-11月 最大回撤 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 上证指数 | 16.02% | 30.13% | -9.71% | | | 深证成指 | 24.67% | 46.57% | -14.98% | | | 创业板指 | 42.54% | 83.95% | -20.79% | | A股 | 沪深300 | 15.04% | 32.27% | -10.49% | | | 中证500 | 22.81% | 42.78% | -13.80% | | | 中证1000 | 23.10% | 39.15% | -16.8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of controlling drawdowns in investment, especially in the context of recent market fluctuations, highlighting that achieving low drawdowns alongside high returns is a challenging goal for investors [2]. A-share Market Performance - As of October 2025, the A-share market has experienced varying levels of drawdown, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing the smallest drawdown of nearly 10%, while the ChiNext Index faced a maximum drawdown of approximately 21% [2]. - The performance of major A-share indices from January to October 2025 is as follows: - Shanghai Composite Index: +17.99% with a maximum drawdown of 9.71% - Shenzhen Component Index: +28.46% with a maximum drawdown of 14.98% - ChiNext Index: +48.84% with a maximum drawdown of 20.79% [3]. Private Fund Performance - In the "quantitative long" category, 27 products ranked in the top 30% for both returns and drawdown control, with a total of 825 products analyzed [4]. - The top five performing products in the quantitative long category for the year are from Jiuming Investment, Shengguanda, Evolutionary Asset, Beijing Guanghua Private Equity, and Qianhai Xuhui Asset [4]. - In the "subjective long" category, 29 products ranked in the top 20% for returns and drawdown control, out of 2156 products analyzed [9]. - The top five performing products in the subjective long category are from Junzhou Private Equity, Liangli Private Equity, Shanghai Ruixin Investment, Meigang Capital, and Fengyu Investment [9]. CTA Strategy Performance - In the CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) category, 22 products ranked in the top 30% for returns and drawdown control, from a total of 557 products analyzed [13]. - The top five performing products in the CTA category are from Hangjingxinghe Asset, Yidao Asset, Zhixin Rongke, Fubeng Investment, and Alpha Private Equity [13]. Multi-Asset Strategy Performance - In the multi-asset strategy category, 29 products ranked in the top 20% for returns and drawdown control, from a total of 710 products analyzed [16]. - The top five performing products in the multi-asset category are from Guoyuan Xinda, Yiqiao Asset, Xiamen Zhendao Private Equity, Shanghai Congrong Investment, and Qianming Asset [16].

Core Insights - The number of private equity firms managing over 10 billion yuan has surpassed 100, indicating a new phase of growth in the industry driven by market conditions and structural changes [1][2][3] - The shift from subjective to quantitative strategies marks a significant evolution in the private equity landscape, with quantitative firms now outnumbering subjective ones [4][5][6] Industry Growth - As of October 2023, the number of billion-yuan private equity firms reached 101, up from 96 at the end of September, with notable new entrants and returning firms [2] - The average return for billion-yuan private equity firms in the first three quarters of 2023 was nearly 30%, with over 98% of firms reporting positive returns [2][3] Performance Comparison - Quantitative private equity firms achieved an average return of 66.8% from September 2024 to October 2025, significantly outperforming subjective strategies, which returned 41.98% [5] - The average return for all private equity funds in the market was 25%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [3] Strategy Evolution - The current market environment has led to a preference for stable and reliable investment strategies, with investors increasingly favoring established firms with robust risk management and operational compliance [3][9] - The integration of quantitative methods into traditional subjective strategies is becoming common, as firms seek to enhance their investment capabilities and adapt to market changes [11] Investor Behavior - Investors are shifting from self-directed investments to allocating funds to private equity products, reflecting a growing trust in established firms [3][9] - There is a notable change in investor preferences, with a focus on stable returns and risk-adjusted performance rather than solely on high excess returns [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the high confidence among private equity firms in maintaining high stock positions during the upcoming long holiday, reflecting a belief in the resilience of the A-share market despite potential uncertainties [1][2][8]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Over 65% of private equity firms plan to hold high or full positions (over 70% equity) during the long holiday, with an average stock position of 71.44% [2][8]. - A survey indicates that 70.19% of private equity firms are optimistic about the A-share market post-holiday, expecting a gradual recovery [3][8]. - The average stock position among private equity firms reached a new high of 78.41% as of September 19, 2023 [2]. Group 2: Macro Economic Factors - The chief strategist of Heisaki Capital believes that the beginning of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle and a shift towards a loose global liquidity environment will benefit capital markets in the long term [3]. - Domestic economic policies are supportive, with monetary and fiscal policies providing ample funding for the market [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Focus - A significant 59.62% of private equity firms favor technology growth sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and smart driving for post-holiday investments [5]. - The investment strategy of "core + satellite" is suggested, combining high-growth technology stocks with defensive low-valuation sectors to mitigate risks [5][6]. - There is a noted divergence in investment strategies, with some firms cautious about high valuations in technology stocks, while others remain committed to growth sectors [4][5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article highlights a consensus among private equity firms that the market will experience a rotation between technology growth and value stocks, with 62.50% expecting a balanced market style [4]. - The potential for a "high-low cut" in market performance is acknowledged, where previously lagging sectors may catch up [6]. - Overall, despite differing views, there is a strong belief in the market's ability to generate returns in the medium to long term, particularly in technology sectors [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in August experienced significant structural differentiation, with the CSI 300 index rising by 10.33%, led by technology sectors such as electronics, computers, communications, and non-ferrous metals, while other sectors lagged behind [2][4]. Performance of Private Equity Funds - In August, 5,098 private equity products reported an average return of 6.50%, with an average excess return of -1.56%. Quantitative long-only products had an average return of 8.96%, but an excess return of -2.36%, indicating challenges in outperforming the index in a highly differentiated market [4][5]. - Subjective long-only products also underperformed, with an average return of 9.21%, which was still below the CSI 300 index's performance [4][5]. Top Performing Private Equity Firms - Among large private equity firms (over 100 billion), only two firms, Fusheng Asset and Xuanyuan Investment, managed to outperform the market in August, with average returns of approximately 3.42% and 15.89% year-to-date [5][7]. - In the 50-100 billion category, five firms, including Tongben Investment and Huaxin, achieved an average return of 12.16% in August, outperforming the market [10][11]. - In the 20-50 billion category, seven firms, led by Zige Investment and Shengqi Asset, reported an average return of 11.11% in August [15][16]. - In the 10-20 billion category, nine firms, including Liangli Private Equity and Jiuge Investment, managed to outperform the market with an average return of 8.90% [19][21]. - In the 5-10 billion category, twelve firms, led by Yijiu Private Equity, achieved an average return of 10.47% [22][23]. - In the 0-5 billion category, 37 firms, with Huichuang Fuxiang at the forefront, reported an average return of 9.56% [25][27]. Investment Strategies and Insights - Fusheng Asset focuses on a "compound interest victory" investment philosophy, emphasizing stable excess returns through a deep understanding of underlying business barriers [8][9]. - Xuanyuan Investment adopts a multi-strategy approach based on industry profitability and market conditions, maintaining a positive outlook on the market while managing risks [9]. - Shengqi Asset's founder has expressed optimism about gold prices, which have risen significantly this year [15][16]. - The overall sentiment among private equity firms indicates a cautious yet optimistic view on market conditions, with a focus on identifying undervalued companies and managing risk effectively [14][19].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown sustained active sentiment since the "9.24" market event last year, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs, indicating a potential investment opportunity in the market [2] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of August 22, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3800 points, marking a nearly 10-year high, with a one-year cumulative increase of 34.03% for the index and 73.41% for the ChiNext Index [2] - The margin financing balance has also exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan for the first time in 10 years [2] Fund Performance - As of August 15, 2025, there are 1713 subjective long products with a total scale of approximately 1507.99 billion yuan, with an average one-month return of 9.62%, outperforming quantitative long products which averaged 8.47% [3] Top Performing Private Equity Firms - In the category of private equity firms with over 100 billion yuan, the top three firms based on average one-year returns are: - Fusheng Asset - Jiuqi Investment - Rido Investment [4][5] - Fusheng Asset has six qualifying subjective long products with a total scale of approximately 1.912 billion yuan, achieving a notable one-year return [5] - Rido Investment has 19 qualifying products with a total scale of approximately 12.09 billion yuan, also showing strong performance [5] Performance by Scale - For private equity firms with a scale of 20-100 billion yuan, the top three are: - Tongben Investment - Haokun Shengfa Asset - Shenzhen Dream Factory Investment [6][8] - In the 10-20 billion yuan category, the top three are: - Nengjing Investment Holdings - Jiuge Investment - Longhang Asset [11][13] - For the 5-10 billion yuan category, the top three are: - Yijiu Private Fund - Beijing Xiyue Private Fund - Fuyuan Capital [15][16] - In the 0-5 billion yuan category, the top three are: - Qinxing Fund - Binli Investment - Zhaoyi Investment [17][19] Investment Strategies - The investment strategies of top-performing firms include focusing on sectors such as entertainment, finance, healthcare, and traditional high-dividend assets, indicating a diversified approach to capitalizing on market opportunities [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a significant upward trend since the U.S. tariff impact on April 7, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching above 3600, indicating a favorable environment for subjective investment strategies to outperform the market [1] Group 1: Performance of Subjective vs. Quantitative Funds - As of July 25, 2023, the average return for 1,231 quantitative private equity products was 4.74%, while 2,303 subjective private equity products achieved an average return of 5.74% over the same period [1] - The average return for subjective long-only products from private equity managers with assets over 5 billion reached 11.91%, with 96.30% of products showing positive returns [1][2] Group 2: Top Performing Fund Managers - The top three subjective private equity fund managers for the year include Tong Xun from Tongben Investment, Lu Hang from Fusheng Asset, and Wang Yiping from Evolutionary Asset, with their respective products achieving significant returns [1][3] - Tong Xun manages three products with a total scale of approximately 302 million yuan, while Lu Hang oversees five products totaling about 1.109 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Performance by Fund Size Categories - For funds sized 20-50 billion, the average return was 15.32%, with 91.16% of products showing positive returns, led by Xu Hongbing from Shenzhen Dream Factory Investment [5][6] - In the 10-20 billion category, the average return was 27.08%, with all products achieving positive returns, led by Sun Jie from Nengjing Investment [7][8] - The 5-10 billion category saw an average return of 22.88%, with Liu Xianglong from Fuyuan Capital leading the performance [10][11] - For the smallest category (0-5 billion), the average return was 18.36%, with Yao Yong from Qinxing Fund achieving the highest performance [13][14] Group 4: Investment Strategies and Focus Areas - Tong Xun and Lu Hang have successfully captured the "new consumption" trend, focusing on sectors that are expected to benefit from economic stabilization and differentiation [3][4] - Xu Hongbing emphasizes traditional business logic in investment, while Chen Yu from Shennong Investment focuses on innovative pharmaceuticals, which have seen significant market interest [7][9] - The investment philosophy of Yao Yong from Qinxing Fund is rooted in extensive company research, leveraging over 20 years of experience in the field [15]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a revitalization through various themes such as artificial intelligence, robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption, leading to new opportunities for stock strategy private equity products [2] Summary by Categories Stock Strategy Products Performance - As of July 25, there are 2,758 stock strategy products with nearly one year of performance data, averaging a return of 49.04% and a dynamic drawdown of 13.23% [2][3] - Among the four secondary strategies, quantitative long and subjective long products have the highest average returns of 65.01% and 48.24%, respectively [2][3] - Quantitative long products exhibit a lower dynamic drawdown of 10.99% compared to subjective long products at 15.06% [2][3] - The stock market neutral products have the lowest dynamic drawdown at 5.54%, primarily due to their use of shorting to hedge beta risk [2] Top Performing Products - In the quantitative long category, the top three products are managed by Shengguanda, Hainan Shengfeng, and Liangchuang Investment [4][5] - Among 674 quantitative long products, 368 have a dynamic drawdown below the average of 10.99%, accounting for 54.6% [4] - The top products in the quantitative long category are primarily from private equity firms with assets under management between 20-50 billion [4] Subjective Long Products - In the subjective long category, 1,098 out of 1,810 products have a dynamic drawdown below the average of 15.06%, representing 60.66% [10] - The top three products are managed by Qinxing Fund, Beiheng Fund, and Youbo Capital [10][12] Stock Market Neutral Products - In the stock market neutral category, 136 out of 208 products have a dynamic drawdown below the average of 5.54%, which is 65.38% [15] - The top three products are managed by Jiaji Fund, Saisuo Fund, and Liangkui Private Equity [15][17] Stock Long-Short Products - In the stock long-short category, 36 out of 66 products have a dynamic drawdown below the average of 10.47%, accounting for 54.55% [18] - The top three products are managed by Yihua Yinghe Fund, Shengquan Hengyuan, and Beijing Jintai Fund [18][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of subjective private equity funds in the A-share market, highlighting the advantages of subjective investment strategies over quantitative approaches in capturing structural opportunities and achieving superior returns [2][4]. Group 1: Performance of Subjective Private Equity Funds - As of July 25, 2023, the average return of subjective private equity funds was 5.74%, compared to 4.74% for quantitative funds [2]. - The average return for subjective long-only products in the top tier (over 5 billion) was 11.91%, with 96.30% of products showing positive returns [2][3]. - The top three fund managers in the over 50 billion category were Tong Xun from Tongben Investment, Lu Hang from Fusheng Asset, and Wang Yiping from Evolutionary Asset [2][3]. Group 2: Fund Manager Rankings by Size - In the 20-50 billion category, the average return was 15.32%, with 91.16% of products showing positive returns. The top managers were Xu Hongbing from Shenzhen Dream Factory Investment, Chen Yu from Shennong Investment, and He Xiao from Orange Capital [5][6]. - In the 10-20 billion category, the average return was 27.08%, with all products achieving positive returns. The leading managers were Sun Jie from Nengjing Investment, Zhai Jingyong from Rongshu Investment, and Ding Yushuang from Chenyao Private Fund [8][9]. - In the 5-10 billion category, the average return was 22.88%, with 91.99% of products showing positive returns. The top managers were Liu Xianglong from Fuyuan Capital, Chen Long from Youbo Capital, and Han Yongfeng from Jiu Private Fund [11][12]. - In the 0-5 billion category, the average return was 18.36%, with 90.24% of products showing positive returns. The top managers were Yao Yong from Qinxing Fund, Xian Lisheng from Weifang Fund, and Li Linkai from Xinjing Investment [15][16]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Market Trends - Tong Xun and Lu Hang successfully captured the "new consumption" trend, leading to their top performance in the market [4]. - Chen Yu from Shennong Investment focused on innovative pharmaceuticals, benefiting from the sector's strong performance this year [7][8]. - Liu Xianglong from Fuyuan Capital emphasized high-growth new consumption companies, indicating a strategic focus on sectors poised for recovery [12][13].

Core Insights - The private equity industry has witnessed three significant phenomena in the first half of the year, primarily centered around quantitative investment and AI advancements [2] - Quantitative private equity has outperformed subjective strategies, with average returns of 17.54% for 592 quantitative long products compared to 11.57% for 1,758 subjective long products [21] - The number of quantitative private equity firms managing over 10 billion yuan has surpassed that of subjective firms for the first time, with 41 quantitative firms compared to 40 subjective firms [2][28] Group 1: AI Breakthroughs in Quantitative Investment - The launch of the DeepSeek AI model has marked a new era for quantitative investment, gaining significant attention both domestically and globally [3] - DeepSeek has topped the download charts in China and the US, surpassing even ChatGPT in the US [3] - Several quantitative private equity firms have made notable advancements in AI, such as Jiukun Investment's collaboration with Microsoft and NianKong Technology's new training framework [3][4] Group 2: Advantages of Quantitative Private Equity in AI - Quantitative investment benefits from rich data resources accumulated over time, which aids in training and optimizing AI models [5] - The effectiveness of AI models can be validated through real-time performance tracking in quantitative strategies, allowing for timely adjustments [6] - The high demands of quantitative investment drive continuous innovation in AI technology, enhancing computational capabilities and processing speeds [8] Group 3: Performance Comparison - In the first half of the year, the average return for 194 quantitative long products from billion-yuan private equity firms was 18.84%, significantly outperforming the 4.80% average return of 171 subjective long products [21] - The top three billion-yuan private equity firms based on excess returns for quantitative products were Longqi Technology, Stable Investment, and Xinhong Tianhe [22] Group 4: Growth of Billion-Yuan Quantitative Firms - As of June 30, the number of billion-yuan quantitative private equity firms reached 41, surpassing subjective firms for the first time [28] - The overall number of billion-yuan private equity firms has increased to 90, with both quantitative and subjective firms showing growth [28][29]