广发证券资深金工分析师 张超 SAC: S0260514070002 zhangchao@gf.com.cn 广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 国内CTA产品三季度发行数量回落： 根据Wind统计数据，2025年三季度新发行CTA产品52只。从近一年风险收益情况来看，三季度公布数据的CTA产品样本数量41只（剔除6 个月没有净值的产品），年化收益率中位数为7.34%，Sharpe Ratio中位数为1.26，近一年最大回撤率中位数为-4.99%。三季度CTA产 品总体盈利比例72.7%。 股指CTA策略短期具备盈利机会： A股三季度大幅上涨，虽然估值已较贵，但在资金和市场情绪推动下，目前上行趋势良好，有利于趋势类CTA策略盈利。与此同时，风险资 产高位往往伴随高波动特征，也是CTA策略相对更容易产生盈利的市场环境。因此对于四季度股指CTA策略，我们持有较为乐观的态度。 国债期货把握高波动阶段机会： 国债到期收益率目前整体处于历史低位，利率下行空间有限，而上行空间又受制于国内通胀水平，国债期货价格后期 ...

Core Insights - The asset management business of futures companies has shown significant growth in 2023, with a total scale of private asset management products reaching 383.97 billion yuan by the end of July 2025, up from 314.32 billion yuan at the end of 2024, marking an increase of 69.65 billion yuan [1] - The number of futures and derivatives products has increased by 364 to 1,730, with a total scale of 130.19 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of approximately 26% in quantity and 29% in scale compared to the end of 2024 [1] - The average management scale of private asset management products by futures companies has risen significantly from 2.86 million yuan at the end of 2024 to 4.04 million yuan by July 2025 [1] Industry Trends - Since the implementation of the new asset management business registration rules on January 17, 2023, the number of futures companies engaged in asset management has decreased from 110 to 94, indicating a tightening of industry standards [2] - The Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) strategy has gained popularity due to its stable returns and low correlation with stock and bond markets, becoming a key tool for investors to diversify risks and optimize portfolios [2] - The fixed income market has entered a correction phase, leading to a decline in returns on fixed income products, which has further increased the appeal of CTA strategies as a standard allocation rather than an optional one [2] Company Developments - Ruida Futures has focused on active management and research empowerment, achieving a 36.5% growth in asset management equity scale by mid-2025, with CTA product scale increasing by over 40% [3] - CITIC Futures has developed various derivative investment strategies, including a "fixed income + gold options" strategy, aimed at providing clients with better participation in precious metal investments while controlling volatility [3] - CITIC Futures has emphasized the unique characteristics of futures asset management, leveraging its research advantages to create innovative "fixed income +" products, thus filling market gaps and exploring differentiated development paths for futures companies [4]

Core Insights - The asset management business of futures companies has shown significant growth in 2025, with total private asset management product scale reaching 383.97 billion yuan, an increase of 69.65 billion yuan from the end of 2024 [1] - The number of futures and derivatives products has increased by 364 to a total of 1,730, with a scale growth of 29.39 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024 [1] - The average management scale of private asset management products by futures companies has risen to 4.04 billion yuan, up from 2.86 billion yuan at the end of 2024 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The implementation of the new asset management business registration rules has raised the entry threshold for futures companies, resulting in a decrease in the number of companies engaged in asset management from 110 to 94 [2] - The Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) strategy has gained popularity due to its stable returns and low correlation with stock and bond markets, becoming a key tool for risk diversification and portfolio optimization [2] Group 2: Company Strategies - Ruida Futures has focused on active management and research empowerment, achieving a 36.5% growth in asset management equity scale, with CTA product scale increasing by over 40% [3] - CITIC Futures has developed various derivative investment strategies, including a "fixed income + gold options" strategy to capitalize on long-term opportunities in gold during interest rate cuts [3] - CITIC Futures has emphasized the unique characteristics of futures asset management, creating innovative "fixed income +" products to provide diverse asset allocation options and fill market gaps [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the futures market, particularly focusing on the dramatic price fluctuations of commodities like coal and polysilicon, highlighting the impact of speculative trading and the emotional responses of traders in the context of a "反内卷" (anti-involution) sentiment [2][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The futures market experienced a rapid surge, with polysilicon prices increasing by over 70% in a month, while coking coal hit a rare five consecutive limit-up days [2][3]. - Following the Dalian Commodity Exchange's position limits on coking coal on July 25, prices plummeted, leading to significant losses for many traders and investment firms [3][4]. - The trading environment in Hangzhou is characterized by a strong commodity culture, with numerous trading firms and a high level of engagement from local investors [5][6]. Group 2: Impact on Traders and Firms - Many traders, including those from Hangzhou, faced substantial losses, with reports of some firms losing billions during the market turmoil [3][4]. - The article notes that the Hangzhou trading community, which includes both industrial players and speculative traders, was caught off guard by the rapid market changes, leading to a collective downturn in performance [4][10]. - The volatility has led to a reevaluation of trading strategies, with some firms struggling to adapt to the emotional and speculative nature of the current market [15][20]. Group 3: Structural Insights - The Hangzhou trading scene is dominated by three main types of capital: trading firms, the Yong'an system, and prominent individual investors [6][9]. - Yong'an Futures has played a significant role in shaping the trading landscape, emphasizing a research-driven approach to trading and risk management [9][10]. - The article highlights the interconnectedness of traders in Hangzhou, where many firms operate within a close-knit community, leading to a tendency for similar trading behaviors and strategies [10][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the current market dynamics are influenced by a mix of emotional trading and speculative behavior, which may not align with fundamental economic indicators [12][22]. - The future of the market will depend on whether the expectations of demand improvement can translate into actual market realities, as the current sentiment is heavily driven by speculation rather than solid data [22].

Group 1: CTA Product Overview - In Q2 2025, 100 new CTA products were issued, indicating a continuous upward trend in issuance [5][10] - The median annualized return for the reported CTA products was 16.37%, with a median Sharpe Ratio of 1.60 and a median maximum drawdown of -4.28% [10][11] - The overall profitability ratio of CTA products in Q2 was 69.4% [10][11] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Analysis - Stock index futures experienced a trend decline in volatility during Q2, reaching near historical lows [2][40] - The market outlook suggests limited upward space for A-shares due to valuation pressures, with stock index futures expected to remain volatile in Q3 [2][40] - The average daily trading volume for major index futures contracts showed a decline compared to the previous quarter [12] Group 3: Government Bond Futures Outlook - The yield levels for medium to long-term government bonds are at historically low levels, limiting downward potential [3][51] - Economic weakness and insufficient demand are suppressing the upward movement of interest rates, leading to a forecast of a primarily oscillating market for government bond futures in Q3 [3][51] - The performance of government bond CTA strategies is expected to be negatively impacted by low volatility in the absence of extraordinary market events [3][51] Group 4: Commodity Market Insights - Commodity volatility is currently low, with significant price movements in precious metals and energy sectors during Q2, followed by a return to oscillation [4][65] - The overall lack of trading signals in the commodity market is attributed to ongoing deflation in China and slow interest rate cuts in the U.S., leading to a wait-and-see approach for CTA strategies [4][65] - The average return for commodity trend-following strategies was -1.5% in Q2, indicating underperformance across major commodities [64]

Group 1: Company Overview - COFCO Capital is a holding company involved in various sectors including life insurance, futures, trust, and banking, providing comprehensive financial support to its parent company COFCO Group and a diverse client base [1] - In 2024, COFCO Capital achieved total operating revenue of CNY 25.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.32%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 1.21 billion, up 18.55% [1] - In Q1 2025, COFCO Capital reported operating revenue of CNY 2.35 billion and net profit of CNY 392 million, maintaining healthy cash assets [1] Group 2: Trust Business Development - COFCO Trust is focusing on the core of trust services, adhering to the service of the real economy and the main responsibilities of the group [3] - The company is advancing structural optimization and risk management to ensure steady growth in its main business [3] - COFCO Trust has developed a comprehensive asset management product system, including cash management, pure debt, and yield-enhancing products [3] Group 3: Futures Business Development - COFCO Futures aims to be a leading domestic provider of industry-specific derivative financial services, focusing on market-oriented, professional, and product-driven principles [4] - The company is enhancing its integrated operational capabilities and providing tailored services to clients in the agricultural sector [5] - COFCO Futures is also expanding its international business and risk management services, adapting to market fluctuations and competitive pressures [5]

Group 1 - The issuance of domestic CTA products significantly increased in Q1 2025, with 73 new products launched, showing a notable rise compared to previous quarters in 2024 [5][6] - The median annualized return for the reported CTA products was 12.40%, with a median Sharpe Ratio of 1.03 and a median maximum drawdown of -5.18%, indicating a healthy performance overall [6][7] - The overall profitability ratio of CTA products in Q1 was 66.0%, suggesting a majority of products generated positive returns [6] Group 2 - The expected returns for stock index CTA strategies are declining due to wide fluctuations in major indices, with small-cap indices performing relatively better [2][34] - A short-term downward price trend is anticipated, particularly in April when annual reports are disclosed, which historically leads to weaker market performance [2][34] - The uncertainty surrounding short-term tariff policies is likely to contribute to a predominantly volatile market in Q2 [2][34] Group 3 - The outlook for government bond CTA strategies is weak, as significant declines were observed in Q1, ending a two-year streak of quarterly gains [3][46] - The yield to maturity (YTM) for government bonds was at historical lows at the beginning of the year, indicating a potential for reversal in market conditions [3][46] - External factors, such as increased global tariff policies, may lead to rising inflation, further impacting the bond market negatively [3][46] Group 4 - The commodity market showed a strong upward trend in Q1, with inflationary signs emerging, although there was internal differentiation among sectors [4][55] - Agricultural products began to rebound, indicating potential for further price increases, while metals, despite leading gains, are at historically high price levels [4][55] - The overall positive trend in commodity prices is expected to enhance the profitability of commodity CTA strategies in Q2 [4][55]