2025年，在海外宏观预期变化、产业 变革 与地缘政治等因素交织影响下，国内商品市场呈现出显著的结构性分化行情 。从指数表现来看，南华 商品指数全年小幅上涨但波动较为明显。 贵金属指数成为领涨板块， 全年涨超 81%， 有色金属指数同样表现突出， 上涨幅度超 18%， 其中 铜、锡因供需错配延续趋势性上涨 。相比之下，黑色系受国内政策及需求预期影响，呈现宽幅震荡格局；能化板块则整体走势疲软。（可参 考： 黄金、白银走牛，CTA策略又火了！一文详解CTA策略！ ） 在此环境下， 部分管理 CTA产品的基金经理通过多品种布局、多周期配置及复合策略运用，能够灵活调整在不同板块上的风险暴露，从而有效 应对结构性行情 。根据私募排排网统计， 2025年有业绩展示的551只CTA产品全年平均收益约24.79% 。为能更清晰了解私募基金经理CTA策 略收益情况，笔者按照所属私募规模分类（20亿以上、20亿以下），分别梳理出在CTA策略上做的比较突出的私募基金经理，供读者参考。 （统计样本：在私募排排网上至少有3只CTA产品展示业绩且符合排名规则的私募基金经理。） 0 1 20亿以上：双隆投资李隽、洛书投资谢冬、宏锡刘锡斌位 ...

以下文章来源于领航配置 ，作者莱卡 领航配置 . 应对 > 预测，帮认可分散配置理念的私募投资者做好资产配置。 同样的年份，为什么有的 CTA产品 收益高涨，有的却表现疲软。 这种分化的背后，是CTA内部不 同的产品分类。 CTA其实是一个非常笼统的称呼，一箩筐什么都往里装，实际上它内部是包含了许多不同类别产 品。 我们可以从四个维度来定位一个具体的CTA产品到底是什么： 将四个维度串起来，就可以对CTA产品进行准确的定位，比如商品+趋势+量化+低杠杆CTA、多资 产+趋势+主观+中高杠杆CTA等。 维度一：资产类别 不同的交易标的，决定了策略不同的发展空间。 股指CTA面对的是相对有限的市场，股指期货只有沪深300、中证500、中证1000等少数品种。 它们之间虽有分化但整体依然高度相关，走势接近，导致股指CTA的策略空间进一步受限。 股指期货受政策影响也较大，2015年监管层对股指期货实施严格限仓，相关政策压制了股指CTA 的生存空间。 但股票市场的趋势性和系统性会更加明显，不容易像个别商品一样被刻意扭曲交易结构，策略的稳定 性会相对更好。 股指CTA在特定阶段的作用也不可忽视，比如2024年就是股指CT ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, commodities such as gold, silver, copper, and aluminum performed well, leading to strong performance in private CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) strategies, with many private funds capitalizing on opportunities in gold and silver [3]. Group 1: CTA Strategy Overview - The core feature of CTA strategies is the use of derivatives like futures and options for investment, rather than direct investments in stocks or bonds. These strategies can go long or short and aim for absolute returns, seeking profit opportunities regardless of market conditions [3]. - According to data from Private Placement Network, there were 551 CTA products displayed in 2025, with an average return of 24.79% and a median return of 13.22%. Among these, quantitative CTA products accounted for 375, with an average return of 20.21%, while subjective CTA products numbered 176, achieving an average return of 34.55% [3]. Group 2: Performance Rankings - For private funds with over 1 billion in assets, the top three quantitative CTA products in 2025 were from companies including Gongqingcheng Guangju Xinghe Private Fund, Shuanglong Investment, and Zhixin Rongke [8]. - In the category of private funds with less than 1 billion in assets, Jingying Zhito and Huacheng Private Fund had the top two quantitative CTA products, while Fanxu Asset and Farmer Private Fund led in subjective CTA products [9].

Group 1 - The private equity market in China is experiencing a "good start" in 2026, with significant interest in quality subjective strategies and continued popularity of quantitative strategies [1][3] - Shanghai Fusheng Asset's actively managed stock private equity product raised 1 billion yuan in a single day, becoming the first "daylight" private equity hit of the year, reportedly selling out in seconds [1][3] - There is a structural characteristic in the current market recovery, with long-term performance-validated quality subjective managers regaining attention while quantitative strategies remain mainstream [3][4] Group 2 - The private equity issuance market has shown a "structured good start" trend, primarily driven by quantitative blue-chip institutions and some outstanding subjective private equity products [3][4] - As of January 9, 2026, 238 private equity securities products have been registered this year, with quantitative products accounting for 47.48% [4] - The sales pace of private equity products has accelerated compared to last year, driven by market policies and increased capital activity, leading to a higher demand for allocations [6][7] Group 3 - Existing clients remain the main source of funding, with new client entry being relatively slow but showing a growth trend [9] - High-net-worth individual clients, especially ultra-high-net-worth clients, are significantly increasing their allocation intentions [9] - Investment strategies are focusing on high-growth sectors, with companies like Shen Nong Investment and Tong Ben Investment targeting AI applications and new consumption as key areas for 2026 [11][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of domestic CTA products in Q4 2025, with an overall profitability ratio of 80.6% among the analyzed products [1][9][10] - In Q4 2025, 57 new CTA products were issued, maintaining a stable issuance rate [5] - The median annualized return for the analyzed CTA products was 5.82%, with a median Sharpe Ratio of 0.89 and a maximum drawdown of -3.78% [9][10] Group 2 - The A-share market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations in Q4, with weak profitability for trend-based CTAs, as the overall valuation level remains high [2][36] - The bond market is expected to remain in a range-bound state, with limited downward space for interest rates and upward pressure from domestic inflation [3][48] - The commodity market saw a significant price increase driven by metals, with a notable divergence among different sectors [4][62] Group 3 - In the stock index futures market, the average daily trading volume for major contracts showed a slight decline, with the basis reflecting a mild backwardation [11][20] - Various trading strategies, including trend-following and style arbitrage, faced challenges, with the trend strategy yielding a loss of 2.97% in Q4 [25][26][28] - The bond futures market's volatility remained low, with historical data indicating a stable trading environment [37][40] Group 4 - The commodity market's volatility increased in Q4, with precious metals and industrial metals leading the gains, while energy and agricultural products faced declines [49][52] - The average return for commodity trend-following strategies was 2.9%, with copper and asphalt showing particularly strong performance [60][61] - The outlook for Q1 2026 suggests continued high volatility in metal prices, with a focus on related products [62]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of finding a suitable asset allocation strategy rather than chasing after high-performing investment products, highlighting that a well-structured portfolio can yield better results than focusing solely on individual product performance [20][44]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The article references the legendary trader Jesse Livermore, who experienced both immense wealth and significant losses throughout his life, illustrating the volatility of investment strategies [5][7]. - It contrasts Livermore's approach with that of Ray Dalio, who has successfully navigated market cycles through a diversified "All Weather" strategy, which includes cross-asset, cross-country, and cross-industry allocations [9][48]. - The narrative suggests that most investors, like Livermore, often spend excessive energy searching for the next big investment opportunity, which can lead to poor timing and decisions [12][18]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Importance - The article argues that asset allocation is more critical than selecting individual products, stating that even average-performing products can yield satisfactory results when combined effectively [20][45]. - It provides a mathematical example showing that a balanced portfolio of three average-performing strategies could achieve a return of nearly 60% over three years, despite individual products experiencing significant drawdowns [32][35]. - The text emphasizes that the maximum drawdown of a well-allocated portfolio can be significantly lower than that of individual high-performing products, which can lead to better overall investment experiences [39][41]. Group 3: Tailoring Asset Allocation - The article outlines the importance of aligning asset allocation with individual risk tolerance, return expectations, and liquidity needs, providing examples of different investor profiles [51][56]. - It suggests that a well-considered asset allocation strategy is akin to a balanced diet, where the focus should be on the overall structure rather than specific components [58][60].

Core Viewpoint - The impending deadline for the transformation of "publicly offered large collective" products is leading to significant changes in the asset management landscape for securities firms, with many products being transferred to public funds or facing liquidation [1][2]. Group 1: Transformation of Large Collective Products - The 2018 asset management regulations require securities firms to complete the public offering transformation of "publicly offered large collective" products by the end of 2025, leaving limited time for existing products [2]. - Many securities firms are transferring their large collective products to affiliated public funds, such as Everbright Fund taking over products from Everbright Securities Asset Management [2]. - Some firms are also transferring products to public funds without direct equity relationships, as seen with Wanlian Securities transferring its money market fund to Ping An Fund [2]. Group 2: Liquidation and Private Fund Transition - For products that do not meet the public offering transformation criteria or are smaller in scale, securities firms often opt to convert them into private fund plans or liquidate them, with liquidation being the more common outcome [3]. - Several securities firms, including Everbright Securities and Huatai Securities, have announced the liquidation of some of their products in the fourth quarter [3]. Group 3: Public Fund Opportunities - Public funds view the acquisition of large collective products as an opportunity to enhance their management scale and diversify their product offerings, particularly favoring money market and large equity products [4]. - For instance, Shenyin Wanguo Securities' two money market funds, with a combined scale of approximately 29 billion yuan, are set to be transferred to Shenwan Hongyuan Fund, potentially bringing significant new capital [4]. Group 4: Challenges for Smaller Products - Smaller products, especially those in the bond category, are often not considered by public funds due to low management fees that do not cover operational costs, leading to a higher likelihood of liquidation [5]. - The recent phase of securities firms transitioning to public offerings appears to be concluding, as evidenced by the removal of the last securities firm from the approval list for public fund management [6]. Group 5: Future Strategies for Securities Firms - Securities firms are now focusing on developing smaller collective products, which often have self-operated or customized attributes, but face stability challenges [7]. - Many firms are working to establish multi-strategy investment departments and are exploring overseas investment products to attract more capital [7].

Core Viewpoint - The transition of large collective products to public fund management has reached a critical phase, with many asset management companies facing significant challenges due to regulatory changes and market dynamics [1][2][4]. Group 1: Industry Changes - The number of fund managers in the public fund department of companies has decreased from a peak of twenty to around seven or eight, indicating a contraction in the workforce [1]. - The final name of a broker's asset management company, "Guojin Asset Management," has been removed from the list of applicants for public fund management qualifications, signaling the end of the "public fund rush" among broker asset management firms [1]. - The deadline for transforming large collective products into public funds is approaching, with many firms either transferring products to affiliated public funds or opting for liquidation [1][2]. Group 2: Product Transition - Several asset management companies have successfully transferred their large collective products to public fund institutions with "blood relationship," such as Everbright Fund taking over products from Everbright Securities Asset Management [2]. - Some firms have also transferred products to public institutions without direct ownership ties, as seen with Wanlian Securities transferring its money market fund to Ping An Fund [2]. - Many broker asset management firms are choosing to convert non-compliant or smaller products into private asset management plans or liquidate them, with liquidation becoming a common outcome [2][3]. Group 3: Profitability and Future Strategies - The loss of large collective products represents a significant profit loss for broker asset management firms, which need to explore new profit growth points [3]. - Broker asset management firms are focusing on developing multi-strategy investments and creating quantitative products to provide a more stable investment experience [3]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with licensed institutions leveraging their comprehensive resources to create differentiated offerings, while unlicensed firms may focus on private and customized solutions to build niche brands [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of controlling drawdowns in investment, especially in the context of recent market fluctuations, highlighting that achieving low drawdowns alongside high returns is a challenging goal for investors [2]. A-share Market Performance - As of October 2025, the A-share market has experienced varying levels of drawdown, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing the smallest drawdown of nearly 10%, while the ChiNext Index faced a maximum drawdown of approximately 21% [2]. - The performance of major A-share indices from January to October 2025 is as follows: - Shanghai Composite Index: +17.99% with a maximum drawdown of 9.71% - Shenzhen Component Index: +28.46% with a maximum drawdown of 14.98% - ChiNext Index: +48.84% with a maximum drawdown of 20.79% [3]. Private Fund Performance - In the "quantitative long" category, 27 products ranked in the top 30% for both returns and drawdown control, with a total of 825 products analyzed [4]. - The top five performing products in the quantitative long category for the year are from Jiuming Investment, Shengguanda, Evolutionary Asset, Beijing Guanghua Private Equity, and Qianhai Xuhui Asset [4]. - In the "subjective long" category, 29 products ranked in the top 20% for returns and drawdown control, out of 2156 products analyzed [9]. - The top five performing products in the subjective long category are from Junzhou Private Equity, Liangli Private Equity, Shanghai Ruixin Investment, Meigang Capital, and Fengyu Investment [9]. CTA Strategy Performance - In the CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) category, 22 products ranked in the top 30% for returns and drawdown control, from a total of 557 products analyzed [13]. - The top five performing products in the CTA category are from Hangjingxinghe Asset, Yidao Asset, Zhixin Rongke, Fubeng Investment, and Alpha Private Equity [13]. Multi-Asset Strategy Performance - In the multi-asset strategy category, 29 products ranked in the top 20% for returns and drawdown control, from a total of 710 products analyzed [16]. - The top five performing products in the multi-asset category are from Guoyuan Xinda, Yiqiao Asset, Xiamen Zhendao Private Equity, Shanghai Congrong Investment, and Qianming Asset [16].

Group 1 - The 2025 Global Futures Traders Conference and the 19th National Futures (Options) Real Trading Competition attracted nearly 170,000 traders, with 196 outstanding participants emerging after months of competition [1] - The competition has evolved beyond a simple contest to become a core platform connecting market demand, talent cultivation, and industry ecosystem development, fostering a multi-win ecological value chain [2][3] - The competition serves as a mirror reflecting the dynamics and needs of traders, showcasing the evolution of trading behaviors and the modern risk management market [2][3] Group 2 - The futures industry is tasked with high-quality development and the creation of a specialized talent pool to provide efficient risk management services for the real economy [3] - The competition assists futures companies in grasping market trends and pressures them to innovate in technology and services, acting as a comprehensive stress test for their capabilities [3] - The event is positioned as a historical mission to promote the healthy development of the futures market, with future iterations expected to incorporate financial technology and artificial intelligence [3] Group 3 - The competition is recognized as a significant platform for observing market dynamics and driving industry innovation, having been held for 19 years [4] - The event provides an opportunity for futures companies to showcase their professional service capabilities and attract talented traders, enhancing brand recognition [5] - The competition is seen as a microcosm of the Chinese futures market, facilitating the exchange of diverse trading styles and strategies, and promoting overall improvement in derivative trading levels [6] Group 4 - Gold has become a focal point for traders, with significant central bank actions supporting its price increase, and a structural low allocation in asset management portfolios indicating potential for future growth [7] - The market dynamics suggest that gold's bullish trend is likely to continue unless significant geopolitical or monetary policy changes occur [7] - The recognition of the importance of understanding market logic and personal risk tolerance is emphasized as crucial for successful trading strategies [8] Group 5 - The CTA strategy is characterized by low correlation with traditional assets, providing a diversified source of returns and opportunities in both bull and bear markets [9] - The recent shift from a tightening to a loosening monetary policy environment is favorable for trading strategies, particularly for CTA products [9] - The performance of CTA products has shown a diversification in sources of returns across various sectors, including equities, bonds, and commodities [9]