2025年06月19日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 9 | | 原木：基差修复，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 19 日 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com （1） 财联社 6 月 16 日电，国家统计局数据显示，1—5 月份，全国房地产开发投资 36234 亿元，同 比下降 10.7%。(来自财联社 APP) 【趋势强度】 铁矿石趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the industrial silicon market is experiencing weak demand, with the futures market showing a weak and volatile trend, while the polysilicon market is also weak due to the fermentation of news. The trend strength of both industrial silicon and polysilicon is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of Si2506 and PS2506 decreased compared to previous periods. Si2506's closing price dropped by 980 yuan/ton compared to a month ago, and PS2506's by 640 yuan/ton compared to a week ago. Trading volumes and open interest also showed varying degrees of decline [2]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premiums or discounts showed different trends compared to different benchmarks, and polysilicon's spot premium (against N - type recycled feedstock) increased by 610 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - **Prices**: The prices of industrial silicon (such as East - China oxygen - passing Si5530 and Yunnan Si4210) and polysilicon (N - type recycled feedstock) decreased to varying degrees. The prices of related products in the photovoltaic industry chain also generally declined, like silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [2]. - **Profits**: The profits of silicon factories (both in Xinjiang and Yunnan) and polysilicon enterprises were mostly negative, and the profit margins of DMC and recycled aluminum enterprises also changed [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social, enterprise, and industry inventories decreased to varying degrees, while polysilicon's factory inventory increased [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials for industrial silicon, such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes, showed different trends, with some remaining stable and some changing slightly [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News As of the end of March, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.43 billion kilowatts, with solar power and wind power showing significant year - on - year growth. The national power generation equipment's average utilization hours decreased, power source project investment declined, and grid project investment increased [2][4].