Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for soybeans (DCE bean - 1) is "shock" [2] - The investment rating for soybean meal is "shock, avoid risks during the long holiday" [3] Core Viewpoints - On September 29, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower due to the expected high - yield of US soybeans and insufficient demand from China. The warm and dry weather in the US Corn Belt accelerated the autumn grain harvest, and the weather is expected to remain similar this week. Analysts predict that the US soybean inventory as of September 1 will be 323 million bushels, a 5.6% decrease from the previous year, and lower than the USDA's September forecast. As of September 28, the US soybean harvest was 19% complete. Brazil, the world's largest oilseed exporter, has started soybean planting, with 3.2% of the sowing completed as of last Thursday, higher than 2% in the same period last year [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - DCE bean - 1 2511: The daytime closing price was 3938 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (-0.05%); the night - time closing price was 3926 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (-0.13%) [2] - DCE soybean meal 2601: The daytime closing price was 2933 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan (-0.54%); the night - time closing price was 2931 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan (-0.20%) [2] - CBOT soybean 11: The price was 1009.25 cents/bushel, down 4.75 cents (-0.47%) [2] - CBOT soybean meal 12: The price was 275 dollars/short ton, up 0.1 dollars (+0.04%) [2] Spot Data - Shandong: The price of 43% soybean meal was 2950 - 2980 yuan/ton, flat. The spot basis was M2601 + 0/+30, with different basis levels for different months [2] - East China: The price in Taizhou Huifu was 2920 yuan/ton, flat. Different trading companies had different basis levels for different months, and some basis levels increased compared to the previous day [2] - South China: The price was 2920 - 2990 yuan/ton, flat. With different basis levels for different months [2] Main Industry Data - Trading volume: The trading volume of soybean meal was 12.04 million tons/day on the previous trading day, compared to 8.05 million tons/day two trading days ago [2] - Inventory: The inventory data was not available, and the inventory two trading days ago was 117.04 million tons/week [2] Macro and Industry News - On September 29, CBOT soybean futures declined due to the expected high - yield of US soybeans and insufficient demand from China. The US autumn grain harvest accelerated, and the weather is expected to remain warm and dry. Analysts predict a year - on - year decrease in US soybean inventory as of September 1. The US soybean harvest progress was in line with market expectations, and Brazil has started soybean planting with a higher sowing progress than last year [2][4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and the trend intensity of soybeans (DCE bean - 1) is 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main contract in the daytime on the report day [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various commodities in the black series are expected to show wide - range fluctuations. Specifically, iron ore will experience range - bound oscillations due to fluctuating expectations; rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal will be affected by macro - sentiment or sector - wide sentiment resonance; thermal coal's demand remains to be released; and logs will undergo basis repair [2][4][6][10][14][18][22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 695.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.50%. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores remained unchanged. Some basis and spread values decreased slightly [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to May, national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 2,986 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase; for hot - rolled coil HC2510, the closing price was 3,102 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase. Spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and some basis and spread values also changed slightly [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In early June 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel increased by 3.2% month - on - month, pig iron by 2.6% month - on - month, and steel decreased by 6.4% month - on - month. From January to May, infrastructure investment increased by 5.6% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year [7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices and trading volumes varied. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia increased. Some basis, near - far month spread, and cross - variety spread values changed [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions, and a silicon - manganese plant in Inner Mongolia newly ignited a furnace, while a silicon - iron furnace in Qinghai was shut down [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price of coking coal JM2509 was 790.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase; for coke J2509, it was 1375 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan/ton with a 0.70% increase. Some spot prices remained unchanged, and some basis and spread values decreased [14]. - **Price and Position Information**: There were price quotes for coking coal in northern ports and CCI metallurgical coal index changes. On June 18, in the top 20 member positions of DCE, the long positions of coking coal JM2509 decreased, and the short positions increased; for coke J2509, both long and short positions increased [14][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [16]. Thermal Coal - **Previous Day's Inner - Market Situation**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading the previous day. The opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.4 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price [19]. - **Fundamentals**: There were price quotes for imported thermal coal in southern ports and domestic thermal coal in production areas. On June 18, in the top 20 member positions of ZCE, the long and short positions of the ZC2507 contract did not change [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions had different degrees of changes, and some basis and spread values changed significantly [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to May, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the industrial silicon market is experiencing weak demand, with the futures market showing a weak and volatile trend, while the polysilicon market is also weak due to the fermentation of news. The trend strength of both industrial silicon and polysilicon is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of Si2506 and PS2506 decreased compared to previous periods. Si2506's closing price dropped by 980 yuan/ton compared to a month ago, and PS2506's by 640 yuan/ton compared to a week ago. Trading volumes and open interest also showed varying degrees of decline [2]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premiums or discounts showed different trends compared to different benchmarks, and polysilicon's spot premium (against N - type recycled feedstock) increased by 610 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - **Prices**: The prices of industrial silicon (such as East - China oxygen - passing Si5530 and Yunnan Si4210) and polysilicon (N - type recycled feedstock) decreased to varying degrees. The prices of related products in the photovoltaic industry chain also generally declined, like silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [2]. - **Profits**: The profits of silicon factories (both in Xinjiang and Yunnan) and polysilicon enterprises were mostly negative, and the profit margins of DMC and recycled aluminum enterprises also changed [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social, enterprise, and industry inventories decreased to varying degrees, while polysilicon's factory inventory increased [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials for industrial silicon, such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes, showed different trends, with some remaining stable and some changing slightly [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News As of the end of March, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.43 billion kilowatts, with solar power and wind power showing significant year - on - year growth. The national power generation equipment's average utilization hours decreased, power source project investment declined, and grid project investment increased [2][4].