商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 3 日 原木：小幅探涨 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 项 目 | 价格指标 | 2026/1/28 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 2026/1/27 | | 2026/2/2 2026/1/30 | | 2026/1/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2603合约（收盘价） 795 798 785 775.5 775.5 | | | -0.4% | | | 2.5% | | | | | 2603合约（成交量） 11027 15438 9866 2751 3684 | | | -28.6% | | | 199% | | | | | 2603合约（持仓量） 9071 10123 10248 10129 10340 | | | -10.4% | | | -12% | | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） 796 796.5 789.5 784.5 786.5 | | | -0.1% | ...

李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 2 日 【基本面跟踪】 原木：小幅探涨 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 原木基本面数据 | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/1/30 | 2026/1/29 | 2026/1/28 | 2026/1/27 | 2026/1/26 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 798 | 785 | 775.5 | 775.5 | 776 | 1.7% | 2.8% | | | 2603合约（成交量） | 15438 | 9866 | 2751 | 3684 | 5068 | 56.5% | 205% | | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 10123 | 10248 | 10129 | 10340 | 10481 | -1.2% | -3% | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 796.5 | 789.5 | 784.5 | 786.5 | ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 30 日 原木：窄幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 2026/1/28 | | | | | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/1/29 | | 2026/1/27 | 2026/1/26 | 2026/1/23 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 775.5 | | | | | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 785 | | 775.5 | 776 | 776 | 1.2% | 1.2% | | 2751 | | | | | | 2603合约（成交量） | 9866 | | 3684 | 5068 | 9430 | 258.6% | 5% | | 10129 | | | | | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 10248 | | 10340 | 10481 | 11610 | 1.2% | -12% | | 7 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 29 日 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，价格震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | -5.0 | -0.63% | | | I2605 | | 783.0 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | | | | 564,613 | -6,440 | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | 前日价格（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | | | | 卡粉（65%） | 877.0 | 879.0 | -2.0 | | | 进口矿 | PB（61.5%） | 794.0 | 796.0 | -2.0 | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴 （61%） | 746.0 | 748.0 | -2.0 | | | | 超特（56.5%） | 673.0 | 675.0 | -2.0 | | | 国产矿 | 邯邢（66%） | 956. ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,123.00 | -3↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1744406 | +29747↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -82096 | -23693↓ RB5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -46 | +2↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 38283 | 0.00 HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 157 | -6↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,280.00 | -10↓ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,364 | -10↓ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,430.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,160.00 | 0.00 | | | RB 主力合约基差 (元/吨) | 157.00 | -7↓ 杭 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing increased profitability pressure as net profit margins have dropped to a critical low, while financing costs continue to decline, and the three red line indicators have reached green status for the first time [1][3][20]. Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a total contract sales amount of 26.7 billion yuan, with a contract sales area of 961,000 square meters, representing a year-on-year decrease of 6% and 13.7% respectively [2][5]. - The average contract sales price reached 27,763 yuan per square meter, marking an 8.7% increase compared to 2024 and setting a new high in recent years [8]. Inventory Management - The value of completed and available-for-sale property inventory increased by 3.2% to 46.69 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the period, with the proportion of inventory value rising from 36% to 37.4%, indicating ongoing inventory digestion pressure [2][5]. Land Acquisition Strategy - The land acquisition-to-sales ratio significantly increased to 1.26, with the company acquiring 9 new projects in key cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou, totaling a land area of 1.183 million square meters and a total acquisition cost of approximately 33.7 billion yuan [11][20]. - As of mid-2025, the total land reserve area was 13.08 million square meters, a slight decrease of 0.6% from the beginning of the period, with a land cost averaging 11,076 yuan per square meter [13]. Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for the first half of 2025 was 18.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.1%, while gross profit rose by 81.3% to 3.22 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 3.2 percentage points to 17.5% [3][23]. - However, net profit margin fell by 0.7 percentage points to 1.3%, and the core net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 92.3% to 29 million yuan, reflecting significant profitability challenges [3][17]. Financing Conditions - The company completed the issuance of three bonds totaling 4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with coupon rates below 2.7%, leading to a reduction in average financing costs by 0.48 percentage points to 2.9% [19][20]. - The net debt ratio increased by 8.4 percentage points to 85.3%, while the asset-liability ratio, excluding pre-receipts, decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 69.5%, indicating ongoing financial optimization [20].