Report Title - Iron ore: Steel mills' inventory replenishment is nearing the end, and ore prices are oscillating downward [1] Report's Core View - Steel mills' inventory replenishment of iron ore is approaching the end, leading to an oscillating decline in ore prices [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 768.5 yuan/ton, down 13.0 yuan/ton or 1.66%. The yesterday's position was 525,113 hands, with an increase of 9,456 hands [2] - **Spot Price**: Imported ores such as Carajás fines (65%), PB (61.5%), Jimbobara (61%), and Super Special (56.5%) all saw price drops, while domestic ores like Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained unchanged [2] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special remained unchanged at 92.4 yuan/ton, while the basis against Jimbobara increased by 1.1 yuan/ton to 72.1 yuan/ton. Spreads such as I2605 - I2609 and I2609 - I2701 changed slightly [2] Macro and Industry News - China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 50.1 [2] - Many real - estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real - estate enterprises need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in their headquarters cities regularly [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [3]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 3 日 原木：小幅探涨 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 项 目 | 价格指标 | 2026/1/28 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 2026/1/27 | | 2026/2/2 2026/1/30 | | 2026/1/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2603合约（收盘价） 795 798 785 775.5 775.5 | | | -0.4% | | | 2.5% | | | | | 2603合约（成交量） 11027 15438 9866 2751 3684 | | | -28.6% | | | 199% | | | | | 2603合约（持仓量） 9071 10123 10248 10129 10340 | | | -10.4% | | | -12% | | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） 796 796.5 789.5 784.5 786.5 | | | -0.1% | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The log market is showing a slight upward trend, with the trend strength of logs being rated as "1" (indicating a relatively weak bullish sentiment) [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts (2603, 2605, 2607) have shown different degrees of change. For example, the 2603 contract's closing price increased by 1.7% daily and 2.8% weekly, and its trading volume soared by 56.5% daily and 205% weekly [1]. - **Spread Data**: The spreads between different futures contracts (such as 2603 - 2605, 2603 - 2607, 2605 - 2607) have also changed, and the spreads between spot and futures have increased significantly, with the spot - 2603 spread rising by 28.9% daily and 61% weekly [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: The prices of various types of logs and wood squares in the Shandong and Jiangsu markets are mostly stable, with only a few showing slight increases or decreases. For example, the price of 11.8 - meter spruce 20 + in the Jiangsu market decreased by 0.9% daily and weekly, while the price of 3 - meter radiation pine wood squares in the Zhenjiang market increased by 2.4% weekly [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China's industrial enterprise profits in December increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual growth was 0.6% [3]. - Many real estate developers are no longer required to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled developers need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratios regularly [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of logs is 1, with the range of values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log market is in a narrow - range oscillation [1] - The log trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2603 contract, the closing price on January 29, 2026, was 785 with a daily increase of 1.2% and a weekly increase of 1.2%; the trading volume was 9866, a daily surge of 258.6% and a weekly rise of 5%; the open interest was 10248, a daily increase of 1.2% and a weekly decrease of 12%. Similar data is provided for 2605 and 2607 contracts, showing different price, volume, and open - interest changes [1] - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts (e.g., 2603 - 2605, 2603 - 2607, 2605 - 2607) and the spreads between spot and futures contracts (e.g., spot - 2603, spot - 2605) have their respective values and changes [1] - **Spot Market**: In the log and wood - square spot markets of Shandong and Jiangsu, prices of different types of logs and wood squares (such as 3.9 - meter, 5.9 - meter radiation pine, K - wood, paper pulp, etc.) have different daily and weekly price change rates, with some remaining stable and some showing slight increases or decreases [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - China's industrial enterprises above the designated size had a 5.3% year - on - year profit growth in December and a 0.6% year - on - year growth for the whole year [3] - Many real - estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real - estate enterprises need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in their headquarters cities regularly [3]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 29 日 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，价格震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | -5.0 | -0.63% | | | I2605 | | 783.0 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | | | | 564,613 | -6,440 | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | 前日价格（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | | | | 卡粉（65%） | 877.0 | 879.0 | -2.0 | | | 进口矿 | PB（61.5%） | 794.0 | 796.0 | -2.0 | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴 （61%） | 746.0 | 748.0 | -2.0 | | | | 超特（56.5%） | 673.0 | 675.0 | -2.0 | | | 国产矿 | 邯邢（66%） | 956. ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,123.00 | -3↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1744406 | +29747↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -82096 | -23693↓ RB5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -46 | +2↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 38283 | 0.00 HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 157 | -6↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,280.00 | -10↓ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,364 | -10↓ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,430.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,160.00 | 0.00 | | | RB 主力合约基差 (元/吨) | 157.00 | -7↓ 杭 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing increased profitability pressure as net profit margins have dropped to a critical low, while financing costs continue to decline, and the three red line indicators have reached green status for the first time [1][3][20]. Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a total contract sales amount of 26.7 billion yuan, with a contract sales area of 961,000 square meters, representing a year-on-year decrease of 6% and 13.7% respectively [2][5]. - The average contract sales price reached 27,763 yuan per square meter, marking an 8.7% increase compared to 2024 and setting a new high in recent years [8]. Inventory Management - The value of completed and available-for-sale property inventory increased by 3.2% to 46.69 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the period, with the proportion of inventory value rising from 36% to 37.4%, indicating ongoing inventory digestion pressure [2][5]. Land Acquisition Strategy - The land acquisition-to-sales ratio significantly increased to 1.26, with the company acquiring 9 new projects in key cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou, totaling a land area of 1.183 million square meters and a total acquisition cost of approximately 33.7 billion yuan [11][20]. - As of mid-2025, the total land reserve area was 13.08 million square meters, a slight decrease of 0.6% from the beginning of the period, with a land cost averaging 11,076 yuan per square meter [13]. Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for the first half of 2025 was 18.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.1%, while gross profit rose by 81.3% to 3.22 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 3.2 percentage points to 17.5% [3][23]. - However, net profit margin fell by 0.7 percentage points to 1.3%, and the core net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 92.3% to 29 million yuan, reflecting significant profitability challenges [3][17]. Financing Conditions - The company completed the issuance of three bonds totaling 4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with coupon rates below 2.7%, leading to a reduction in average financing costs by 0.48 percentage points to 2.9% [19][20]. - The net debt ratio increased by 8.4 percentage points to 85.3%, while the asset-liability ratio, excluding pre-receipts, decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 69.5%, indicating ongoing financial optimization [20].