Report Title - Iron ore: Steel mills' inventory replenishment is nearing the end, and ore prices are oscillating downward [1] Report's Core View - Steel mills' inventory replenishment of iron ore is approaching the end, leading to an oscillating decline in ore prices [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 768.5 yuan/ton, down 13.0 yuan/ton or 1.66%. The yesterday's position was 525,113 hands, with an increase of 9,456 hands [2] - **Spot Price**: Imported ores such as Carajás fines (65%), PB (61.5%), Jimbobara (61%), and Super Special (56.5%) all saw price drops, while domestic ores like Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained unchanged [2] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special remained unchanged at 92.4 yuan/ton, while the basis against Jimbobara increased by 1.1 yuan/ton to 72.1 yuan/ton. Spreads such as I2605 - I2609 and I2609 - I2701 changed slightly [2] Macro and Industry News - China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 50.1 [2] - Many real - estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real - estate enterprises need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in their headquarters cities regularly [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The price of logs is slightly rising. The overall trend strength of logs is 1, indicating a neutral stance, with the trend strength range being integers from -2 to 2 [-2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view] [1][4] Group 3: Summary of Related Contents by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2603 contract, the closing price was 795 on 2026/2/2, with a daily decline of 0.4% and a weekly increase of 2.5%; the trading volume was 11,027, with a daily decline of 28.6% and a weekly increase of 199%; the open - interest was 9,071, with a daily decline of 10.4% and a weekly decline of 12%. Similar data is provided for the 2605 and 2607 contracts. There are also data on the price differences between different contracts [1] - **Spot Market**: In the log spot market, prices of different types of logs in different regions showed different changes. For example, the 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in the Shandong market had a price of 750 yuan/m³ on 2026/2/2, with a daily increase of 1.4% and a weekly increase of 1.4%. In the wood square spot market, prices of different types of wood squares in different regions also showed different changes. For example, the 3 - meter radiata pine wood square in Rizhao had a price of 1,270 yuan/m³ on 2026/2/2, with a daily increase of 4.1% and a weekly increase of 4.1% [1] Macro and Industry News - China's Manufacturing PMI in January was 50.3, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 50.1 [3] - Multiple real - estate enterprise related personnel stated that currently, their companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly. However, some troubled real - estate enterprises are required to regularly report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located [3] Trend Strength - The log trend strength is 1, indicating a neutral stance, with the trend strength range being integers from -2 to 2 [-2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view] [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The log market is showing a slight upward trend, with the trend strength of logs being rated as "1" (indicating a relatively weak bullish sentiment) [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts (2603, 2605, 2607) have shown different degrees of change. For example, the 2603 contract's closing price increased by 1.7% daily and 2.8% weekly, and its trading volume soared by 56.5% daily and 205% weekly [1]. - **Spread Data**: The spreads between different futures contracts (such as 2603 - 2605, 2603 - 2607, 2605 - 2607) have also changed, and the spreads between spot and futures have increased significantly, with the spot - 2603 spread rising by 28.9% daily and 61% weekly [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: The prices of various types of logs and wood squares in the Shandong and Jiangsu markets are mostly stable, with only a few showing slight increases or decreases. For example, the price of 11.8 - meter spruce 20 + in the Jiangsu market decreased by 0.9% daily and weekly, while the price of 3 - meter radiation pine wood squares in the Zhenjiang market increased by 2.4% weekly [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China's industrial enterprise profits in December increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual growth was 0.6% [3]. - Many real estate developers are no longer required to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled developers need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratios regularly [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of logs is 1, with the range of values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log market is in a narrow - range oscillation [1] - The log trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2603 contract, the closing price on January 29, 2026, was 785 with a daily increase of 1.2% and a weekly increase of 1.2%; the trading volume was 9866, a daily surge of 258.6% and a weekly rise of 5%; the open interest was 10248, a daily increase of 1.2% and a weekly decrease of 12%. Similar data is provided for 2605 and 2607 contracts, showing different price, volume, and open - interest changes [1] - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts (e.g., 2603 - 2605, 2603 - 2607, 2605 - 2607) and the spreads between spot and futures contracts (e.g., spot - 2603, spot - 2605) have their respective values and changes [1] - **Spot Market**: In the log and wood - square spot markets of Shandong and Jiangsu, prices of different types of logs and wood squares (such as 3.9 - meter, 5.9 - meter radiation pine, K - wood, paper pulp, etc.) have different daily and weekly price change rates, with some remaining stable and some showing slight increases or decreases [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - China's industrial enterprises above the designated size had a 5.3% year - on - year profit growth in December and a 0.6% year - on - year growth for the whole year [3] - Many real - estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real - estate enterprises need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in their headquarters cities regularly [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The report focuses on the iron ore market, stating that it is in a game between expectations and reality, with prices fluctuating [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of iron ore futures decreased by 5.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.63%. The I2605 contract had a closing price of 783.0 yuan/ton, with a position of 564,613 hands and a decrease of 6,440 hands [1] - **Spot Prices**: Imported ore prices such as Carajás fines (65%), PB fines (61.5%), Jinbuba (61%), and Super Special (56.5%) all decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton. Domestic ore prices in Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained unchanged [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special and Jinbuba increased by 2.8 yuan/ton. The spread between I2605 - I2609 remained unchanged at 18.5, while the spread between I2609 - I2701 decreased by 0.5 to 12.0. The spreads between Carajás fines - PB fines, PB fines - Jinbuba, and PB fines - Super Special remained unchanged [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size in December increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual increase was 0.6% [1] - Many real estate companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies are required to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located [1] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the RB2605 contract was weakly consolidated. In the macro - aspect, at the end of Q4 2025, the balance of RMB real - estate loans was 51.95 trillion yuan, with a full - year decrease of 963.6 billion yuan; the balance of real - estate development loans was 13.16 trillion yuan, a full - year decrease of 357.5 billion yuan; the balance of personal housing loans was 37.01 trillion yuan, a full - year decrease of 676.8 billion yuan [2]. - In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar stopped falling and rebounded, rising to around 2 million tons; the apparent demand declined, and the inventory changed from decreasing to increasing. Overall, during the off - season of consumption, rebar demand continued to shrink, the increase in short positions in the mainstream holdings was greater, and the futures price was under pressure [2]. - Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were adjusting downward. It is recommended for short - term trading and attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan; the position of the RB main contract was 1,744,406 lots, an increase of 29,747 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 82,096 lots, a decrease of 23,693 lots; the spread between the RB5 - 10 contracts was - 46 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan [2]. - The daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 38,283 tons, with no change; the spread between the HC2605 - RB2605 contracts was 157 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan [2]. 3.2现货市场 (Translated as Spot Market) - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight calculation) was 3,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight calculation) was 3,364 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [2]. - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight calculation) was 3,430 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight calculation) was 3,160 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of the RB main contract was 157 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 20 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB price) was 1,490 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (ex - tax) was 2,170 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [2]. - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 167.6285 million tons, an increase of 2.1204 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 419,400 tons, an increase of 14,600 tons [2]. - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.6199 million tons, an increase of 117,900 tons; the inventory of steel billets in Tangshan was 1.562 million tons, an increase of 68,900 tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.66%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.53%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points [2]. 3.4产业情况 (Translated as Industry Situation) - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.9955 million tons, an increase of 92,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 43.75%, an increase of 2.03 percentage points [2]. - The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.4898 million tons, an increase of 63,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.0312 million tons, an increase of 77,100 tons [2]. - The operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was 70.83%, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points; the monthly output of crude steel in China was 68.18 million tons, a decrease of 1.69 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of steel bars in China was 13.75 million tons, an increase of 190,000 tons; the net export volume of steel products was 10.78 million tons, an increase of 1.3 million tons [2]. 3.5下游情况 (Translated as Downstream Situation) - The national real - estate climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion amount was - 3.80%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion amount was - 17.20%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 2.20%, a decrease of 1.10 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.5989 billion square meters, a decrease of 38.24 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 587.7 million square meters, a decrease of 53.13 million square meters [2]. - The inventory of unsold commercial housing was 402.36 million square meters, a decrease of 8.75 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On January 28, Cailian Press reporters learned from relevant personnel of multiple real - estate enterprises that their companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly. However, some troubled real - estate enterprises are required to regularly report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located [2]. - Regarding the first Fed interest - rate decision in 2026 to be announced on Wednesday afternoon US time (early Thursday morning Beijing time), Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed whisperer", wrote on Tuesday that Fed officials are expected not to cut interest rates, and the more difficult question is under what circumstances the Fed will resume interest - rate cuts [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing increased profitability pressure as net profit margins have dropped to a critical low, while financing costs continue to decline, and the three red line indicators have reached green status for the first time [1][3][20]. Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a total contract sales amount of 26.7 billion yuan, with a contract sales area of 961,000 square meters, representing a year-on-year decrease of 6% and 13.7% respectively [2][5]. - The average contract sales price reached 27,763 yuan per square meter, marking an 8.7% increase compared to 2024 and setting a new high in recent years [8]. Inventory Management - The value of completed and available-for-sale property inventory increased by 3.2% to 46.69 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the period, with the proportion of inventory value rising from 36% to 37.4%, indicating ongoing inventory digestion pressure [2][5]. Land Acquisition Strategy - The land acquisition-to-sales ratio significantly increased to 1.26, with the company acquiring 9 new projects in key cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou, totaling a land area of 1.183 million square meters and a total acquisition cost of approximately 33.7 billion yuan [11][20]. - As of mid-2025, the total land reserve area was 13.08 million square meters, a slight decrease of 0.6% from the beginning of the period, with a land cost averaging 11,076 yuan per square meter [13]. Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for the first half of 2025 was 18.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.1%, while gross profit rose by 81.3% to 3.22 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 3.2 percentage points to 17.5% [3][23]. - However, net profit margin fell by 0.7 percentage points to 1.3%, and the core net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 92.3% to 29 million yuan, reflecting significant profitability challenges [3][17]. Financing Conditions - The company completed the issuance of three bonds totaling 4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with coupon rates below 2.7%, leading to a reduction in average financing costs by 0.48 percentage points to 2.9% [19][20]. - The net debt ratio increased by 8.4 percentage points to 85.3%, while the asset-liability ratio, excluding pre-receipts, decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 69.5%, indicating ongoing financial optimization [20].