执业证书编号：S1410525120001 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -5.35 -6.9 -27.32 绝对收益 -4.06 -6.0 -4.63 数据来源：聚源 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 1. 江海证券-行业点评报告-食品饮料：鸣 鸣很忙即将上市，关注零食量贩行业 – 2026.01.20 证券研究报告·行业点评报告 2026 年 1 月 27 日 江海证券研究发展部 行业评级：增持（维持） 近日金星啤酒向港交所递交招股说明书，公司 2023 年-2025 年三季度业绩实现 高速增长，2023 年-2025 年三季度公司营业收入分别为 3.56/7.30/11.10 亿元， 2024 年和 2025 年三季度营业收入增速分别为 104.87%和 191.16%。公司 2023 年-2025 年三季度实现归母净利润 0.12/1.25/3.05 亿元，2024 年-2025 年三季 度归母净利润增速分别为 928.00%和 1095.84%。 据国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 1-12 月，中国累计啤酒产量 3536.0 万千升， 同比下降 1.1%。其中， ...

Core Viewpoint - Jin Xing Beer is seeking to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, potentially becoming the first "Chinese craft beer stock" in the market [2][3]. Company Overview - Jin Xing Beer, established in 1982, is the eighth largest brewery in China, with 16 production bases across nine provinces and an annual production capacity of 2 million tons [6][7]. - The company has shifted its focus from traditional industrial beer to Chinese craft beer, launching its first craft product, "Jin Xing Mao Jian" tea beer, in August 2024 [9][10]. Product Development - The successful launch of tea beer has led to the rapid development of over 50 craft beer SKUs, including jasmine tea and sugar-coated hawthorn flavors, creating a diverse product matrix [12][13]. - Since the launch of Jin Xing Mao Jian, the company has achieved sales exceeding 100,000 tons within approximately 10 months, expanding its market presence to international locations such as the UK, Australia, New Zealand, UAE, and Southeast Asia [14][15]. Financial Performance - Jin Xing Beer has experienced significant financial growth, with revenue projected to increase from 356 million RMB in 2023 to 730 million RMB in 2024, and further to over 1.1 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a growth of over 200% in two years [20][21]. - Net profit is expected to surge from 12 million RMB in 2023 to 1.25 billion RMB in 2024, and reach 305 million RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, marking an increase of over 24 times compared to 2023 [22][23]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio has dramatically decreased from 2250% in 2023 to 11.1% in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting improved financial health [25][26]. Market Trends - The craft beer market in China is expanding rapidly, with retail sales projected to grow from 12.5 billion RMB in 2019 to 63.2 billion RMB in 2024, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 38.4% [38][39]. - Jin Xing Beer has become the largest flavored craft beer company in China, capturing a market share of 14.6% by September 2025 [41]. Competitive Landscape - The craft beer sector is attracting significant interest from major players, including liquor giants and leading breweries, which may pose competitive challenges for Jin Xing Beer [46][48]. - The pricing strategy of Jin Xing Beer, with its craft beer priced at 20 RMB per 1000mL, is notably higher than competitors like Mijiu Ice City, which offers products at 5.9 RMB per 500mL [48][49].

Core Viewpoint - Henan Jinxing Beer Co., Ltd. has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, showcasing impressive growth figures but facing significant concerns regarding sustainability and governance issues [1][12]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to increase from 356 million RMB in 2023 to 1.11 billion RMB by 2025, while net profit is expected to surge from 12.2 million RMB to 30.5 million RMB, marking a 24-fold increase in two years [1][3]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to rise from 27.3% to 47% during the same period [1]. Product Innovation - The launch of "Jinxing Maojian" tea beer in August 2024 marked a pivotal shift for the company, contributing significantly to sales with 10 million cans sold within 10 months [2]. - By 2025, the Chinese craft beer segment accounted for 78.1% of Jinxing's revenue, establishing it as a leading player in the flavored craft beer market with a 14.6% market share [2][4]. Market Challenges - The company faces challenges from increased competition as major players like China Resources and Budweiser enter the craft beer market with similar products [6]. - Jinxing's reliance on a single product category raises concerns about sustainability, as traditional products are declining in revenue [4][6]. Governance and Compliance Issues - The company has distributed dividends totaling 329 million RMB, exceeding its profits for the first three quarters of 2025, raising questions about financial management [8][10]. - Governance concerns are highlighted by the family's absolute control over 93.45% of the shares, which may signal a lack of confidence in reinvesting in the company [10][12]. - There are significant issues regarding unpaid social security and housing fund contributions, totaling over 21.9 million RMB, which could lead to legal repercussions [11][12]. Asset Ownership Concerns - Approximately 25.7% of Jinxing's owned properties lack proper ownership certificates, which could expose the company to administrative penalties [12]. - The company acknowledges potential risks associated with these ownership issues, which could adversely affect its business and financial status [12]. Market Outlook - The craft beer market in China is projected to grow from 12.5 billion RMB in 2019 to 63.2 billion RMB by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 38.4% [6]. - The success of Jinxing's IPO will depend on its ability to manage risks and demonstrate sustainable growth potential in a competitive landscape [13].