青岛啤酒（600600） 2025 年中报点评：全渠道协同发力，持续高 质量增长 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 33,937 | 32,138 | 33,015 | 34,544 | 36,025 | | 同比（%） | 5.49 | (5.30) | 2.73 | 4.63 | 4.29 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4,268 | 4,345 | 4,741 | 5,292 | 5,823 | | 同比（%） | 15.02 | 1.81 | 9.12 | 11.61 | 10.05 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.13 | 3.19 | 3.48 | 3.88 | 4.27 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 22.30 | 21.91 | 20.08 | 17.99 | 16.35 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券研究报告·公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in the liquor sector and food products [1] Core Insights - The liquor industry is undergoing extreme pressure testing, with a significant focus on inventory clearance and bottoming out of financial reports. The second quarter has shown weak demand due to seasonal factors and regulatory impacts, leading to a notable decline in sales and pricing pressures [5][10] - High-end liquor brands like Moutai are expected to maintain growth, while mid-tier brands face challenges with declining revenues and profits. The overall industry is in a deep clearance phase, with potential for recovery as regulations stabilize [5][12] - The consumer goods sector shows mixed performance, with snacks and beverages remaining strong, while other segments like frozen foods and chain restaurants face ongoing demand pressures [20][25] Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector - The liquor industry is experiencing extreme pressure, with weak demand in the second quarter and significant inventory levels. Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to show modest growth, while others like Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao are facing declines [5][11][12] - Moutai's revenue is projected to grow by 7% in Q2, while Wuliangye is expected to see a 1% increase. In contrast, brands like Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao are forecasted to decline by 35% and 8% respectively [11][12] 2. Consumer Goods - The overall demand for consumer goods remains weak, but segments like snacks and beverages are performing well. For instance, East Peak is expected to see a 33% increase in revenue, while other snack brands are also showing positive trends [20][25] - The beverage sector is projected to see positive growth, with major brands like Qingdao Beer and Yanjing expected to report increases in revenue and profit [25][26] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-performing stocks in the short term while considering long-term investments in liquor brands that are currently at their bottom. Brands like Moutai and Gujing are recommended for their lower risk profiles [7][8] - For consumer goods, companies like Anqi and East Peak are highlighted for their growth potential, while traditional dairy brands like Yili and Mengniu are suggested for a bundled investment approach [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is focused on deepening its domestic and international market presence, with a primary goal of increasing sales volume. It employs a strategic approach that includes consolidating its market position along the Yellow River, expanding its coastal market strategy, and leveraging opportunities in the southern market [4][6] - The company is implementing a product development strategy that includes a combination of classic, pure draft, and white beer as core products, alongside premium and fresh products to capture market trends [5] - New market opportunities are being pursued through the development of diverse products catering to consumer preferences, new channel partnerships, and targeting new demographics [6] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth from a low base in 2024, with projected revenues of 331.81 billion, 339.14 billion, and 344.16 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 3.25%, 2.21%, and 1.48% [7][10] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company is 47.24 billion, 51.25 billion, and 54.76 billion for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.73%, 8.48%, and 6.85% [7][10] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.46, 3.76, and 4.01 yuan per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20, 18, and 17 times [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has issued a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (00291), projecting a 34% upside potential to a target price of HKD 33.50 based on a 2026 expected P/E ratio of 19 times, discounted to the end of 2025 [1] Group 1: Recent Performance - Management observed positive year-on-year growth in beer sales for the second quarter of 2025, with low single-digit growth achieved despite a challenging industry environment [2] - Average selling prices have seen a slight increase due to mild product mix upgrades, even in a difficult pricing environment [2] - High-end and sub-high-end products achieved mid-single-digit year-on-year growth in the first five months of 2025, with expectations for growth to accelerate to high single-digit to double-digit for the full year [2] Group 2: Profitability - Management reaffirmed the commitment to achieve double-digit profit growth in 2025, supported by a gross margin expansion of over 1 percentage point, primarily due to a decrease in unit sales costs driven by favorable raw material costs [3] - Continuous cost reduction measures are expected to contribute to a decline in sales and administrative expense ratios [3] Group 3: Brand Performance - Heineken continued its strong momentum in June, with sales growing over 20% year-on-year [4] - Pure draft beer sales recorded a mid-single-digit decline for the year, partly due to a high base in the Sichuan market, especially during the Spring Festival, while the company is undergoing channel reforms [4] Group 4: Channel Strategy - Management emphasized collaboration with three new channels (Sam's Club, Hema Instant Delivery, and Pang Donglai) to boost sales and leverage customer insights [5] - New channel partnerships currently account for a high single-digit percentage of total sales, up from a low single-digit percentage last year, with profit margins on par with non-immediate consumption channels [5] Group 5: Regional Performance - Heineken has maintained robust performance in the Guangdong market, with sales growth exceeding the national average [6] Group 6: Shareholder Returns - Management reiterated the goal of achieving a 60% dividend payout ratio by 2025, with plans to increase it to 70% within two years [7]

Core Viewpoint - The leadership transition at Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co., Ltd. marks a significant change as Wang Zhibin resigns due to retirement, and Huang Wensheng takes over as chairman, facing challenges in expanding beyond the southern market while maintaining growth in high-end products [3][6][12]. Company Overview - Wang Zhibin has served in various roles at Zhujiang Brewery since 2005, becoming chairman in 2019, and has been instrumental in the company's growth during a period of rapid development in the domestic beer industry [5][6]. - Huang Wensheng, born in 1968, has extensive experience in management and engineering, previously serving as the general manager and deputy secretary of the party committee at Zhujiang Brewery before his appointment as chairman [8][12]. Financial Performance - In the 2024 financial report, Zhujiang Brewery achieved a revenue of 5.731 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.56%, and a net profit of 810 million yuan, up 29.95% [6]. - The high-end product line, including pure draft and Xuebao beer, generated 3.904 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 13.97% increase and accounting for approximately 68% of total revenue [6][7]. - The company's revenue from the South China region reached 5.491 billion yuan, a 7.45% increase, representing 95.81% of total revenue, indicating a strong regional dependency [7]. Market Context - The overall beer industry in China is experiencing challenges, with a reported decline in beer production of 0.6% year-on-year [11]. - Zhujiang Brewery's performance contrasts with major competitors like China Resources Beer and Qingdao Beer, which have seen revenue declines, while Zhujiang Brewery and Yanjing Beer have shown double-digit net profit growth [11][12]. - The company faces the challenge of expanding its market presence outside of South China, as revenue from non-South China regions fell by 10.37% to 241 million yuan [7].

Core Viewpoint - The new management team emphasizes a consumer-centric approach and sales growth, continuing the previous strategic framework while introducing new initiatives to adapt to market demands [3][4]. Group 1: New Management Strategy - The new management strategy focuses on "beer + biotechnology + health" as strategic areas for future development [3]. - The company aims to deepen its presence in both domestic and international markets [3]. - A product development strategy termed "1+1+1+2+N" will be implemented to enhance product offerings [3]. - Brand communication will be strengthened to improve consumer experience [3]. - The "Five New" framework (new products, new channels, new scenarios, new demographics, new demands) will support the cultivation of new growth points [3]. - Digital transformation will be accelerated to adapt to changing market conditions [3]. - The company plans to solidify its core business while exploring new ventures [3]. Group 2: Focus on Consumer Demand - The beer industry is characterized by stable overall volume and structural upgrades, with a projected per capita beer consumption in China of 30.5 liters in 2024, indicating significant growth potential [4]. - There is a growing demand for mid-range and premium beers, driven by consumer preferences for quality, personalized experiences, and value for money [4]. - The company aims to meet evolving consumer needs through new products, channels, and scenarios, targeting demographics such as Generation Z, women, high-net-worth individuals, and the elderly [4]. Group 3: Emphasis on Sales Growth - The product strategy includes a focus on classic, pure draft, and white beer as core growth products, alongside the development of fresh products and high-end offerings [5]. - The southern market is identified as a growth highlight, with new consumption scenarios and product launches showing initial success [5]. - International expansion will target potential markets in South Korea, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, and West Africa to drive overall sales growth [5].

Industry Overview - The total production of the industry remains the highest globally in 2024, but the consumption side shows a trend of "stable quantity and improved quality" [1] - The five major groups, including China Resources, Qingdao, Budweiser, Yanjing, and Carlsberg, occupy over 70% of the market share, creating a monopolistic competition landscape [1] - Regional beer brands face increasing pressure from these giants, leading to a further contraction of their survival space [1] Company Performance - Huichuan Beer reported an operating revenue of approximately 647 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 5.44% [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was around 64.83 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of approximately 33.58% [2][3] - Interest income and investment income accounted for a substantial 57% of the total profit, indicating a reliance on non-core business activities for profitability [4][5] Financial Data - The net profit growth was primarily driven by non-beer business activities, as the core beer business struggled to contribute significantly to profits [2][4] - Operating cash flow from operating activities increased by 76.63% year-on-year, reaching approximately 132.64 million yuan [3] - The total assets of Huichuan Beer grew by 12.56% year-on-year, amounting to approximately 1.68 billion yuan [3] Market Challenges - Despite a 30.61% increase in revenue from mid-to-high-end products, the low-end market saw a decline, with ordinary product revenue dropping by about 21.05% [6] - Sales expenses exceeded the net profit from the beer business, indicating high costs associated with promoting mid-to-high-end products [6][7] - The company has faced intense competition from major players since 2012, leading to a decline in market share and revenue [8][10] Historical Context - Huichuan Beer has a long history dating back to 1938, transitioning from traditional liquor production to beer in the 1980s [8] - The company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2003 and has undergone several expansions to reach a production capacity of 800,000 tons [8] - Despite recent revenue growth, the company's 2024 revenue of approximately 647 million yuan is still lower than the 690 million yuan reported in 2012, indicating a long-term decline [10]

Core Viewpoint - Zhujiang Beer reported a revenue increase of 6.56% and a net profit increase of 29.95% for 2024, despite the overall beer industry facing a decline in production [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company's total revenue reached 5.731 billion yuan, up from 5.378 billion yuan in 2023, marking a 6.56% year-on-year growth [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 810 million yuan, a 29.95% increase from 623 million yuan in the previous year [3]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains was 762 million yuan, reflecting a 36.79% increase compared to 557 million yuan in 2023 [3]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share rose to 0.37 yuan, up 32.14% from 0.28 yuan in 2023 [3]. Market Position - Zhujiang Beer generated 54.9 billion yuan in revenue from South China, accounting for 95.81% of total revenue, with a growth rate of 7.45%, outperforming the regional beer production average of 3.2% [5]. - The company remains heavily reliant on the South China market, with only 4.19% of revenue coming from outside this region [6]. Industry Context - The overall beer production in China decreased by 0.6% in 2024, marking a continuous decline over five years, while Zhujiang Beer managed to achieve growth [4]. - The beer industry is experiencing a shift from scale competition to value competition, posing challenges for regional brands like Zhujiang Beer in achieving national expansion [10]. Strategic Challenges - Despite strong performance, the company faces questions regarding its nationalization strategy and the need to reduce dependence on the South China market [6][8]. - The high-end product segment saw a sales increase of 13.96%, indicating a positive trend in product structure optimization [10]. - However, mid-range products experienced a revenue decline of over 10%, highlighting struggles in maintaining market share [10].