Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bearish [3] - Option strategy: Sell calls [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market is in the off - season of demand, with no obvious signs of recovery in downstream demand after the holiday and a strong wait - and - see attitude. Therefore, the current operation should focus on selling hedges on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On June 5, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$21.98/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,500 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -15.00 yuan/ton, while the SMM Guangdong and Henan lead spot prices increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,525 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,025 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,325 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Market**: On June 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,680 yuan/ton, closed at 16,695 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 30,915 lots, a decrease of 4,095 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 50,484 lots, a decrease of 2,012 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,765 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,645 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,720 yuan/ton, closed at 16,650 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Inventory**: On June 5, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 54,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last week. As of June 5, the LME lead inventory was 282,650 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Strategy - **Absolute Price**: Due to the off - season of lead demand and no obvious improvement in downstream demand after the holiday, the operation strategy is to sell hedges on rallies [3]. - **Option Strategy**: Sell call options [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead has slightly increased, but it is expected to be unsustainable. Currently, it is the off - season for lead consumption, and downstream demand is weak. Therefore, it is recommended to use sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to sell calls [3] Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 17.34 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,575 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to - 20.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price remained unchanged at 16,600 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,225 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,400 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On May 29, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,730 yuan/ton and closed at 16,750 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 37,075 lots, an increase of 4,378 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 45,996 lots, a decrease of 3,025 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,825 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,705 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,700 yuan/ton and closed at 16,600 yuan/ton, down 0.93% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged from the previous trading day. In Henan, some rigid demand transactions occurred with suppliers offering discounts of 200 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract. In Hunan, smelters offered discounts of 40 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price, and some suppliers offered discounts of 60 - 50 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, suppliers offered premiums of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead or discounts of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract. The lead price was consolidating, and due to the approaching Dragon Boat Festival holiday, downstream inventory - building intention was low, resulting in light trading in the spot market [2] Inventory - On May 29, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 49,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the same period last week. As of May 29, the LME lead inventory was 288,550 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons from the previous trading day [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [3] - Arbitrage: On hold [3] 2. Core View - In the off - season for consumption, the supply and demand of lead may show a pattern of weakness on both sides, and macro uncertainties will continue to interfere with the trend of non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging operations around 17,200 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On May 7, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$17.64/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,550 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,525 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton, the waste white shell remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the waste black shell decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,500 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On May 7, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,740 yuan/ton and closed at 16,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 44,962 lots, an increase of 8,816 lots from the previous day. The position was 36,929 lots, a decrease of 1,525 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,875 yuan/ton and a low of 16,650 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,720 yuan/ton and closed at 16,830 yuan/ton, a 0.57% decrease from the previous afternoon's close [1] Spot Market Transactions - The SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton. In Henan, traders offered discounts of 100 - 120 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Jiangxi, smelters offered premiums of 50 - 150 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price and had some transactions; in Hunan, smelters offered discounts of 50 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price, and traders offered discounts of 60 - 50 yuan/ton, with sparse spot transactions; in Yunnan, holders offered discounts of 250 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price and had some transactions. Lead smelters sold according to the market, downstream buyers generally waited and watched, and only made a small amount of purchases for rigid demand. The overall spot market transactions were relatively light [2] Inventory - On May 7, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 46,000 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 256,700 tons, a decrease of 4,800 tons from the previous trading day [2]