Report Basics - Report Date: August 4, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ji Xianfei [1] - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0012691 [1] - Email: jixianfei@gtht.com [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The firm spot premium of copper restricts the decline of its price [1] Summary by Directory Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,400 with a daily increase of 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 78,170 with a decline of 0.29%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 9,633 with a daily increase of 0.27% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 80,943, a decrease of 28,068 from the previous day, and the open interest was 167,671, a decrease of 8,522. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 26,400, a decrease of 20,146, and the open interest was 272,000, an increase of 986 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 20,349, an increase of 727, and the LME Copper inventory was 141,750, an increase of 3,550. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 10.07%, a decrease of 2.21% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME Copper spread was - 49.25, an increase of 1.51 from the previous day. The bonded - area warehouse receipt premium was 51, an increase of 2, and the bonded - area bill of lading premium was 64, an increase of 4. The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper was 73,100, a decrease of 100 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: Weak US non - farm payroll data has led to a sharp increase in interest - rate cut expectations. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in July was 48, showing the fastest contraction in nine months, and the employment index reached the lowest in more than five years [1] - **Micro**: Peru is evaluating 134 mining exploration and exploitation projects with an expected investment of $6 billion. Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivative products starting from August 1. The tariff may trigger competition among US domestic traders. Codelco has cut copper mining operations at its flagship project El Teniente due to an accident [1][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Group 1: Market Reaction - Following President Trump's exclusion of refined copper from the tariff plan, New York copper prices plummeted over 18% within minutes, marking the largest single-day drop in history [1][2] - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. saw its stock price decline by approximately 10%, while Southern Copper's stock fell over 6% due to the announcement weakening the premium on U.S. copper prices [2] - The decision is viewed positively by Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper company, as it benefits their exports to the U.S. market [2] Group 2: Tariff Details - Starting August 1, a 50% tariff will be imposed on various imported copper products, including semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives [3][5] - Copper input materials and scrap copper will not be subject to the tariffs, which is a significant distinction in the policy [3][6] - The tariffs are part of a broader strategy to boost U.S. domestic industries and address trade imbalances, following previous tariffs on steel and aluminum [5][6] Group 3: Industry Implications - The exclusion of refined copper from tariffs is expected to disrupt global copper trade flows, as refined copper is crucial for various applications, including electrical wiring [7][8] - Analysts suggest that the removal of refined copper from the tariff list eliminates arbitrage opportunities, leading to a convergence in market prices [9] - The U.S. relies heavily on copper imports, with about half of its copper needs being met through imports, primarily from Chile [10]