在商界，王文银的名字曾经如雷贯耳，头顶"世界铜王"的光环，掌控着全球5%的铜矿资源，其正威集团在2021年更是以7227亿的年营收傲视群 雄，力压华为，荣登广东民企榜首，世界500强排名第68位。然而，仅仅四年光景，这位曾经风光无限的千亿富豪，却陷入了连1亿工程款都难 以支付的窘境，被法院32次列为"老赖"，私人飞机被查封，豪华别墅无人问津，甚至连最后一家上市公司的股票也被强制划走抵债。 这位从安徽农村走出的传奇人物，究竟是如何一步步走向深渊的呢？时间倒回至1993年，26岁的王文银揣着满是汗渍的500元人民币，蜗居在深 圳罗湖口岸的廉价旅馆里，潜心研究着《矿产资源分布图》。白天，他在一家港资工厂担任仓库管理员，凭借着惊人的记忆力，将上万种物料 编码烂熟于心，很快便被一家日资企业高薪挖走。两年后，他用积攒下来的500万元创办了正威集团，开启了他人生中的第一场豪赌。 2003年，非典疫情席卷全国，铜价一落千丈，跌至冰点。在众人避之不及的时候，王文银却做出了一个惊人的决定——抵押全部身家，买下江 西一座濒临破产的铜矿。当时，所有人都认为他疯了，然而，仅仅一年后，铜价暴涨8倍，这笔投资为他带来了上百亿的巨额财富。 ...

关税风云下的铜铝 五矿证券研究所 有色金属行业 分析师：王小芃 登记编码：S0950523050002 邮箱：wangxiaopeng@wkzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-61102510 证券研究报告|行业跟踪 2025/08/21 | 有色金属行业 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | 分析师：于柏寒 登记编码：S0950523120002 邮箱：yubaihan@wkzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-61102510 Contents 目录 01 铜铝价格走势复盘 03 供应端偏紧的铝市场 04 铜铝价格展望总结 02 关税风云下"割裂"的铜市 场 今年铜铝在交易什么？ 复盘：关税预期扰动今年铜价 图表1：2025年初至今的铜价走势复盘：关税、冶炼厂减产成为主线 8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 11000 11500 12000 12500 13000 2025-01-08 2025-01-10 2025-01-12 2025-01-14 2025-01-16 2025-01-18 2025-01-20 2025-01-22 2025- ...

包括Southwire Co. LLC和Cerro Wire LLC在内的美国主要电线生产商正在上调铜线产品价格。此前，美 国总统特朗普决定免除基本铜进口关税，预计这将使美国铜加工企业受益。分析师表示，关税决定可能 会对美国消费者造成通胀压力。CRU集团的Aisling Hubert指出，本土生产商将拥有更大的定价权，而 伍德麦肯兹的Peter Schmitz则表示，"最终有人会为此买单，那就是美国消费者"。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price is expected to continue the pattern of being stronger in the domestic market and weaker in the international market, as well as being weaker in the near - term and stronger in the far - term. Currently, the macro - environment is favorable for copper prices, while the industrial side shows a neutral - to - bearish trend [2][3][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Impact of US Tariff Policy - On July 30, the US President announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi - products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1. The New York copper price dropped by over 18% on the same day, and the spread between COMEX copper and LME copper quickly narrowed to the pre - tariff - expectation level. Copper ores and cathode copper were exempted from the tariff, which is beyond market expectations. This exemption is bullish for copper prices from a global supply - demand perspective. After the spread convergence, US copper imports may decline in the second half of the year, increasing non - US copper supply and being bearish for LME and SHFE copper [2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The current high global market risk appetite and the good performance of domestic and foreign equity markets are bullish for copper prices. The unexpectedly weak US non - farm data and lower - than - expected non - manufacturing PMI at the beginning of the month increased the expectation of a US economic slowdown and Fed rate - cut expectations, causing the US dollar index to fall. The market expects the Fed to cut rates three times this year, with a cumulative cut of 75 basis points [2]. - There is a risk of a macro - environment shift. If the US economy continues to weaken, copper prices will be under pressure; if the US economy stabilizes and the Fed cuts rates, it will be bullish for copper prices [3]. Domestic Market Conditions - In July, the domestic macro - environment was positive. With the "anti - involution" policy, domestic - priced commodities generally rose. The strong trend continued in late July but cooled down at the end of the month, and commodities entered an adjustment phase. The current spot industry is in the off - season, with limited impact on copper prices. Supported by the macro - environment, far - month copper contracts are stronger than near - month contracts. Domestic electrolytic copper inventory de - stocking has slowed down, while overseas copper inventory has been accumulating at a high level, resulting in the pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international copper prices. Domestic upstream smelters maintain high production, and refined copper imports are expected to increase, putting pressure on the domestic industry [3]. Trade Agreement and Its Impact - In August, the new US tariff policy was implemented, and the US reached new trade agreements with major global economies, possibly extending the current tariff policy for 90 days. This reduces global economic uncertainty and is expected to keep the market risk - appetite high, which is bullish for copper prices [3]. - The joint statement of the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks on August 12, 2025, involving a 90 - day tariff extension and non - tariff measure adjustment, indicates an improvement in Sino - US trade relations and is also bullish for copper prices [4].

Core Viewpoint - The global financial markets experienced significant volatility due to a series of tweets from former President Trump, leading to an unprecedented 18% drop in copper prices, the largest single-day decline since 1986 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On July 31, global copper prices fell sharply, impacting commodity markets and leading to slight declines in global stock markets [1][2]. - The sudden drop in copper prices was attributed to Trump's announcement that only semi-finished copper products would be subject to tariffs, excluding raw materials [3][4]. - Following the announcement, major banks like Citibank and Morgan Stanley issued reports predicting a drastic reduction in U.S. copper imports and a significant drop in copper prices [3][4]. Group 2: Employment Data Manipulation - Trump accused the former head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics of manipulating employment data to benefit political interests, leading to her dismissal [9][12]. - The revised employment data revealed a much worse job market than previously reported, indicating a severe economic downturn [12][9]. - The manipulation of employment statistics was cited as a reason for the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, which Trump argued was detrimental to the economy [12][4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged added pressure to global markets, although it was largely anticipated [4][7]. - Trump's reaction to the Fed's decision included calls for resignations and accusations of mismanagement, which contributed to market uncertainty [17][19]. - The probability of a rate cut increased significantly following Trump's comments, leading to a drop in the U.S. dollar index and increased volatility in the markets [17][19]. Group 4: A-shares Market Response - Despite global market declines, the A-shares market showed resilience, with expectations of minimal impact from the U.S. market's volatility [23][26]. - The A-shares market had previously experienced a strong upward trend, and the recent adjustments were viewed as a healthy correction rather than a panic response [23][28]. - The anticipated U.S. rate cuts and the subsequent release of capital were seen as potential long-term benefits for the A-shares market [28][27].

Report Basics - Report Date: August 4, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ji Xianfei [1] - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0012691 [1] - Email: jixianfei@gtht.com [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The firm spot premium of copper restricts the decline of its price [1] Summary by Directory Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,400 with a daily increase of 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 78,170 with a decline of 0.29%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 9,633 with a daily increase of 0.27% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 80,943, a decrease of 28,068 from the previous day, and the open interest was 167,671, a decrease of 8,522. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 26,400, a decrease of 20,146, and the open interest was 272,000, an increase of 986 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 20,349, an increase of 727, and the LME Copper inventory was 141,750, an increase of 3,550. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 10.07%, a decrease of 2.21% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME Copper spread was - 49.25, an increase of 1.51 from the previous day. The bonded - area warehouse receipt premium was 51, an increase of 2, and the bonded - area bill of lading premium was 64, an increase of 4. The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper was 73,100, a decrease of 100 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: Weak US non - farm payroll data has led to a sharp increase in interest - rate cut expectations. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in July was 48, showing the fastest contraction in nine months, and the employment index reached the lowest in more than five years [1] - **Micro**: Peru is evaluating 134 mining exploration and exploitation projects with an expected investment of $6 billion. Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivative products starting from August 1. The tariff may trigger competition among US domestic traders. Codelco has cut copper mining operations at its flagship project El Teniente due to an accident [1][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives, citing national security concerns, which has caused significant volatility in the global copper market [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Copper Market - The announcement of the tariff led to a 20% drop in copper futures prices on July 30, following a period of rising prices due to market speculation about the tariffs [2][3]. - Prior to the tariff announcement, copper futures had reached a record high of $5.8955 per pound, driven by expectations of the tariffs [2]. - The tariff policy has disrupted the previous premium for U.S. copper over London Metal Exchange (LME) prices, which had reached a 28% premium [2][3]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Inventory Dynamics - U.S. copper inventories at the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) have surged to 232,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21,900 tons, indicating a significant buildup of stock [3]. - The U.S. imported 864,000 tons of copper in the first half of the year, up 514,000 tons from the previous year, reflecting increased demand amid tariff speculation [3]. - The potential for excess inventory in the U.S. market may suppress COMEX copper prices, with concerns about inventory outflows impacting LME prices and domestic prices in China [3]. Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - Despite short-term pressures on copper prices, long-term demand for copper is expected to rise due to trends in electric vehicles, data centers, and grid modernization, which may support higher copper prices [3][5]. - The U.S. is the second-largest consumer of copper globally, with projected consumption of approximately 1.6 million tons in 2024, while domestic production remains limited [5]. - The U.S. relies heavily on imports for refined copper, with 46% of its refined copper needs met through imports, highlighting a critical gap in its supply chain [5]. Group 4: Future Policy Considerations - The U.S. government is considering further tariffs on refined copper, with potential rates of 15% starting in 2027, increasing to 30% in subsequent years, which could impact domestic production and investment [6]. - The proposed export licensing for high-quality copper scrap aims to ensure a stable supply of raw materials while promoting domestic refining capacity [6]. - The effectiveness of the tariff policy in fostering domestic copper industry growth remains uncertain, as significant capital investment and time are required to develop new refining capabilities [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The rising spot premium restricts the decline of copper prices [1] - The trend strength of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,040 with a daily decline of 1.13%, and the night - session closing price was 78,010 with a decline of 0.04%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,607 with a decline of 1.26% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 109,011, an increase of 53,123 from the previous day, and the open interest was 176,193, an increase of 4,504. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 46,546, an increase of 30,514, and the open interest was 271,000, an increase of 221 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 19,622, a decrease of 351, and the LME Copper inventory was 138,200, an increase of 1,350. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 12.28%, a decrease of 1.87% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME Copper spread was - 50.76, a decrease of 3.96 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 73,600, an increase of 100. The spot - to - near - term futures spread was 165, an increase of 55 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The US core PCE price index in June was 2.8% year - on - year, reaching a 4 - month high. Trump said the US - Mexico tariff agreement would be extended by 90 days, and the US Commerce Secretary claimed to have reached trade agreements with Cambodia and Thailand [1] - **Micro News**: Chile expects to get Trump's tariff exemption, causing New York copper to fall more than 6% and copper mining stocks to decline generally. Peru is evaluating 134 mining exploration and development projects with an expected investment of $6 billion. Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1 [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing significant volatility due to the U.S. government's unexpected tariff policy, leading to a sharp decline in copper prices and a mass exit of long positions from the market [1][2][4]. Tariff Policy Impact - The U.S. announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1, while exempting refined copper and scrap copper, which contrasts sharply with previous expectations of a blanket tariff on all copper products [2][3][4]. - This targeted approach has led to a rapid liquidation of previously accumulated copper inventories in the U.S., as the market adjusts to the new tariff structure [4][10]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, COMEX copper futures plummeted to $4.33 per pound, a 21% drop from the previous close, while London and Shanghai copper prices also fell by 0.8% and 1.3%, respectively [1][2]. - The market had previously anticipated a broader tariff application, leading to a surge in copper imports into the U.S. to capitalize on expected price increases [10][12]. Inventory Dynamics - As of July 30, COMEX copper inventories reached 250,000 tons, a significant increase from less than 100,000 tons in February, indicating a major shift in supply dynamics due to tariff expectations [9][10]. - In contrast, LME copper inventories have decreased sharply, highlighting a divergence in inventory trends between the two markets [9]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the U.S. copper market will face downward pressure on prices due to the potential for excess inventory to be re-exported to international markets [10][12]. - The tariff policy is expected to disrupt global copper supply chains, with major copper-exporting countries potentially redirecting their shipments to Asia and Europe [12][13]. Industry Implications - The tariff's impact on copper prices may increase costs in sectors such as automotive and renewable energy, prompting companies to consider domestic alternatives or adjust their supply chains [12]. - The long-term effects of the tariff policy on the copper market will depend on how well downstream industries can adapt to the new pricing environment and whether they can mitigate the impact of increased costs [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on various imported copper products, effective August 1, which has led to significant market reactions, particularly a sharp decline in COMEX copper prices [1][3]. Market Reaction - COMEX copper prices plummeted over 18% on July 30, with the decline continuing, while LME copper showed minimal reaction, resulting in a significant narrowing of the price spread between COMEX and LME copper [1][4]. - The collapse of the abnormal premium structure for U.S. copper means that traders will lack incentives to transport copper from other regions to the U.S., leading to concerns about limited copper inflow into the U.S. market [4]. Implications for Supply and Demand - The U.S. copper import volume has nearly reached last year's total, and without price incentives, the inflow of copper from other regions may be restricted, potentially leading to a re-export scenario [4]. - LME copper inventories have accumulated nearly 50,000 tons since early July, with expectations of further increases in inventory levels due to the reduced impact of tariffs on refined copper [4]. Future Considerations - President Trump has not ruled out the possibility of imposing tariffs on refined copper in the future, with potential phased tariffs starting in 2027 [5]. - The U.S. administration's directive includes measures to support the domestic copper industry, such as requiring that 25% of high-quality scrap copper produced domestically must be sold within the U.S. [5].