证券研究报告·有色金属年度策略·工业金属 2）全球精炼铜需求2024年中国占比58%，美国占比6% 。2016-2024年，全球精炼铜消费量呈现稳健上升态势，CAGR为2%，2024年中国/美国消费精炼铜 1557/162万吨，yoy+1.3%/+0.5%，贡献全球总消费量58%/6%。2025年1-8月需求量增量主要贡献国家为中国、日本、德国等，墨西哥、芬兰需求量有所减 少。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心观点 1）2025年1-8月全球供需持续维持紧平衡态势，铜价整体高位运行或抑制需求。供需角度，根据ICSG数据来看，2025年1-8月精铜持续维持紧平衡态势，除 了需求淡季外，上半年铜价高位、矿端扰动增强推动冶炼加速生产，精铜供给较为饱满，2025年1-8月月均供给过剩0.8万吨。 2025年铜价高位运行，1-11月 铜价均价为9704美元/吨，yoy+6%。 我们判断2025年上游矿端供给短缺主要在矿端扰动、现货冶炼端加工费过低体现，并非下游需求真实产生显著短缺缺口，情绪角度反应高于基本面角度，2026 年铜价走势我们预计仍需重点关注上游矿山情况。 3）2025年中国需求稳健增长，分品类来看，精 ...

铜周报 2025/11/22 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 地缘层面对市场情绪有所压制 CONTENTS 目录 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 利润库存 06 资金端 01 ◆ 供应：铜精矿现货加工费下滑，粗铜加工费持平，冷料供应边际偏宽松。消息面，智利国家铜业（Codelco）对2026年CIF韩国电解铜长单报 价在330美元/吨，较2025年85美元/吨上涨245美元/吨。 ◆ 库存：三大交易所库存环比增加3.8万吨，其中上期所库存增加0.1至11.1万吨，LME库存增加1.9至15.5万吨，COMEX库存增加1.7至36.2万吨 上海保税区库存增加0.5万吨。现货方面，周五国内上海地区现货升水期货90元/吨，LME市场Cash/3M升水1.1美元/吨。 ◆ 进出口：国内电解铜现货进口亏损缩窄，洋山铜溢价反弹。海关总署数据显示，2025年10月我国精炼铜进口量32.3万吨，净进口量为25.7万 吨，环比减少9.0万吨 ...

资料显示，浙江海亮股份有限公司位于浙江省杭州市滨江区协同路368号海亮科研大厦10楼，成立日期 2001年10月29日，上市日期2008年1月16日，公司主营业务涉及铜管、铜棒、铜管接件、铜铝复合导 体、铝型材等产品的研发、生产制造和销售。主营业务收入构成为：铜管61.25%，原材料等23.03%， 铜棒7.25%，铜箔4.51%，铜排3.59%，其他0.37%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，交银施罗德基金旗下1只基金重仓海亮股份。交银慧选睿信一年持有期混合(FOF)A （015326）三季度持有股数47.78万股，占基金净值比例为1.49%，位居第二大重仓股。根据测算，今日 浮盈赚取约29.15万元。 交银慧选睿信一年持有期混合(FOF)A（015326）成立日期2022年7月27日，最新规模2.86亿。今年以来 收益18.11%，同类排名189/342；近一年收益17.6%，同类排名175/330；成立以来收益3.16%。 11月21日，海亮股份涨5.3%，截至发稿，报12.12元/股，成交3.67亿元，换手率1.39%，总市值277.76亿 元。 交银慧选睿信一年持有期混合(FOF)A（015326 ...

Company Overview - Hailiang Co., Ltd. is located in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, and was established on October 29, 2001. The company was listed on January 16, 2008. Its main business involves the research, production, and sales of copper pipes, copper rods, copper fittings, copper-aluminum composite conductors, and aluminum profiles [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Hailiang achieved a revenue of 65.018 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.56%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.925 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.21% [2]. - Cumulatively, Hailiang has distributed 2.486 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.065 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Performance - As of November 13, Hailiang's stock price increased by 2.06%, reaching 11.41 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 26.149 billion yuan. The stock has risen by 8.86% year-to-date, with a 4.49% increase over the last five trading days, but has seen a decline of 7.86% over the last 20 days and 5.66% over the last 60 days [1]. - The number of shareholders as of September 30 was 30,600, an increase of 83.72% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 37.65% to 72,273 shares [2]. Shareholding Structure - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the fifth-largest circulating shareholder, holding 57.3828 million shares, an increase of 33.5988 million shares from the previous period. The Southern CSI 500 ETF exited the list of the top ten circulating shareholders [3]. Market Activity - Hailiang's stock has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with the most recent occurrence on August 4 [1]. - The stock's trading activity showed a net outflow of 1.6901 million yuan from main funds, with significant buying and selling activity from large orders [1]. Industry Classification - Hailiang is classified under the industrial metals sector, specifically in the copper category, and is associated with concepts such as copper foil, Industry 4.0, seawater desalination, specialized and innovative enterprises, and mid-cap stocks [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resurgence of copper arbitrage trading as traders bet on the potential reintroduction of high tariffs on copper by the Trump administration in the coming year [1][2] - Major trading firms, including Mercuria Energy Group, Vitol Group, and Trafigura Group, are negotiating annual agreements for copper supply to the U.S. for 2026, with offers exceeding the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark price by over $500 per ton [1][2] - The expectation of renewed tariffs has led to a significant increase in the price of copper on the New York Comex, which is now substantially higher than LME prices, indicating a potential continuation of market volatility [1][2] Group 2 - Earlier this year, traders like Mercuria and Trafigura profited significantly by shipping large quantities of copper to the U.S. before the initial tariff announcement, which resulted in record import levels and pushed copper prices to historical highs despite weak demand [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has suggested delaying the implementation of tariffs until 2027, with a proposed 15% tariff increasing to 30% by 2028, creating uncertainty that traders are eager to exploit [2] - The willingness of traders to pay high premiums for copper is driven by the potential for higher resale prices in the U.S. market [2]

被特朗普之前雷声大雨点小的关税令暴击才过去三个月，曾被称为"现代史上最赚钱大宗商品交易之 一"的铜套利交易就卷土重来了。新近消息显示，交易商再次押注特朗普政府明年将对铜征收高关税。 交易商们之所以愿意支付如此高昂的溢价，是因为他们可以在美国市场以更高价格转售这些货物。 传出上述周五的媒体消息后，Mercuria和Trafigura的代表拒绝置评，Vitol发言人未回复置评请求。 三个月前 "史上最赚钱"交易一日崩塌 据美东时间11月7日周五的媒体报道，近几周，包括Mercuria Energy Group、维多（Vitol Group）和托克 （Trafigura Group）在内，多家贸易巨头近期与智利生产商接洽，以求锁定2026年向美国供应铜的年度 协议，部分交易商的支付价较伦敦金属交易所（LME）的基准铜价高每吨500美元以上。这些贸易商的 出价约为中国制造商现货采购价的10倍。 纽约Comex期铜价格已再次大幅高于LME的伦铜期货价。这反映了投资者对特朗普政府明年可能重启商 品级铜关税计划的预期，意味着今年震动全球铜市的大规模押注铜关税交易可能明年继续搅动市场。 关税阴影仍在 交易商豪赌关税重启 今年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hailiang Co., Ltd. is transitioning from a traditional copper supplier to a "technology co-creation materials service provider," focusing on AI computing power chips, data centers, robotics, and new energy vehicles, aiming to enhance its technological barriers and value chain in high-performance non-ferrous metals and new materials [1][2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 925 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.21% - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 995 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 46.59% - The net cash flow from operating activities was 77 million yuan, up 102.30% year-on-year [1] Strategic Initiatives - The establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary, Hangzhou Hailiang Precision Technology Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 300 million yuan, aims to provide customized solutions in precision cooling for emerging fields [1][2] - The company is committed to becoming a "co-development partner" and "technical problem solver" for clients in the materials sector, enhancing customer stickiness and building a robust technological barrier [2] Market Trends - The demand for cooling solutions in sectors such as consumer electronics, data centers, new energy vehicles, and humanoid robots is diversifying and upgrading [2] - Copper, known for its excellent thermal conductivity and reliability, is becoming a core material in thermal management systems across various fields, with its application depth and breadth expanding with technological iterations [2] Industry Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2030, global power grid and infrastructure construction will contribute 60% of the growth in copper demand, with AI computing infrastructure expected to drive an additional 120,000 tons of copper demand in 2025 [3] - Hailiang Co., Ltd. is actively involved in the research and development of copper materials for new energy vehicles, energy storage batteries, and AI data centers, promoting technological innovation and efficient development [3] Global Expansion Strategy - The company has defined a global development strategy, becoming the largest and most competitive manufacturer of copper pipes and rods globally [4] - Hailiang Co., Ltd. is leveraging opportunities in the Indian market and has obtained BIS certification for its factories in Vietnam and Thailand, enhancing its global footprint [4] - The company has seen over 100% growth in order volume in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year, driven by the surge in demand for copper-based materials for cooling solutions [4]

Core Viewpoint - Hailiang Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the copper processing industry, with significant revenue and profit rankings, but faces challenges in debt levels and profitability compared to industry averages [1][2][3]. Company Overview - Hailiang Co., Ltd. was established on October 29, 2001, and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on January 16, 2008. The company is headquartered in Zhejiang Province and is the largest copper tube and rod processing enterprise globally [1]. - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of copper tubes, rods, fittings, copper-aluminum composite conductors, and aluminum profiles, categorized under the non-ferrous metals industry [1]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Hailiang reported revenue of 649.33 billion yuan, ranking 8th among 16 companies in the industry. The top competitor, Jiangxi Copper, achieved revenue of 3960.47 billion yuan [2]. - The main business segments include copper tubes (272.42 billion yuan, 61.25%), raw materials (102.42 billion yuan, 23.03%), copper rods (32.24 billion yuan, 7.25%), copper foils (20.05 billion yuan, 4.51%), and others [2]. - The net profit for the same period was 9.16 billion yuan, also ranking 8th in the industry, with the leading company, Zijin Mining, reporting a net profit of 457.01 billion yuan [2]. Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Hailiang's debt-to-asset ratio was 59.61%, down from 62.12% year-on-year, but still above the industry average of 54.12% [3]. - The gross profit margin was reported at 3.68%, an increase from 3.06% year-on-year, yet below the industry average of 10.36% [3]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 16.55% to 16,700, while the average number of circulating A-shares held per shareholder increased by 20.01% to 115,900 [5]. - The top ten circulating shareholders included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 33.6 million shares [5]. Business Highlights - Hailiang is actively expanding its overseas operations, with growth in copper processing revenue and sales outpacing domestic figures. The Texas plant is expected to reach a production capacity of 90,000 tons by the end of 2025 [5]. - New product developments are promising, with expectations for the copper foil business to break even by 2026 and a significant increase in demand for heat dissipation copper-based materials [5][6].

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Jintian Copper - **Industry**: Copper and Rare Earth Materials Key Financial Performance - **Net Profit Growth**: The company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 104% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a non-recurring net profit growth of 205.69% [2][4] - **Revenue**: Main business revenue reached 84.827 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.54% [4] - **Production and Sales**: Total production exceeded 1.4 million tons, and sales surpassed 1.3 million tons, remaining stable compared to the previous year [2][4] Business Segments - **Rare Earth Permanent Magnet Materials**: Gross margin improved from 7%-8% to nearly 15% [2][4] - **Overseas Market Performance**: Sales in overseas markets grew by 14.5% to 151,300 tons, with products like copper busbars, electromagnetic wires, and copper rods showing significantly higher profitability than domestic sales [2][6] - **New Energy Sector**: Sales of copper products in the new energy vehicle, photovoltaic, and wind power sectors totaled 170,600 tons, with a 20% growth in new energy vehicle-related products [2][7] Strategic Developments - **High-End Product Development**: The company is focusing on high-end applications, with 48 projects in new energy vehicle drive motors and plans to mass-produce 1,200V and 1,500V platforms by early 2026 [7] - **Green Low-Carbon Recycled Copper**: Sales doubled year-on-year, exceeding 1,000 tons, with applications in laptops, smartphones, and new energy vehicle battery connections [2][8] - **Cooling Solutions**: The company achieved over 50% growth in the cooling sector, with significant quarterly increases and a 20% rise in overseas revenue [2][10] Future Outlook - **Strategic Planning**: The company is committed to internationalization, high-end development, and green initiatives, with a five-year strategic plan developed in collaboration with Roland Berger [9] - **Capacity Utilization**: Current capacity utilization is over 85%, expected to rise to 90%-95% by 2026 [16] - **Expansion Plans**: Plans to expand production capacity in Thailand and Vietnam, with the Thai copper tube project expected to release part of its capacity in 2026 [2][6] Market Challenges and Opportunities - **Regulatory Environment**: Recent policy changes are expected to enhance industry concentration and provide pricing power to larger enterprises [30] - **Recycled Copper Market**: The market for recycled copper is anticipated to grow significantly, with the company positioned as a leader in using recycled materials [24] - **Taxation Disadvantages**: The company faces higher tax costs compared to some domestic competitors, impacting profitability in the recycled materials segment [25][26] Conclusion - **Investment Potential**: The company's strong financial performance, strategic focus on high-end and green products, and expansion plans present significant investment opportunities, particularly in the context of evolving market dynamics and regulatory changes [9][30]

Core Insights - Hailiang Co., Ltd. reported impressive internationalization results in its 2025 semi-annual report, with a 50.77% year-on-year increase in revenue from the U.S. market and a 25.35% increase in overseas copper processing revenue, reaching 13.984 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Internationalization Strategy - The company has been pursuing internationalization for 20 years, establishing production bases in 23 countries and regions, which reflects a deep integration of technology, management, and culture [1] - The initial step in its globalization strategy was to set up a base in Vietnam, chosen for its geographical advantages, market potential, and favorable policies [9][8] - The company aims to enhance its capabilities through competition and cooperation, while also building a global production layout to mitigate trade friction risks [7][6] Group 2: Operational Achievements - Hailiang's production capacity in Vietnam has increased from 7,000-8,000 tons to 80,000-90,000 tons, growing over tenfold, with annual growth rates of 20-30% [15] - The company has established three regional headquarters in North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia, creating a comprehensive global production and sales network [19] - The overseas revenue proportion has risen to 40.95%, with total revenue reaching 87.387 billion yuan in 2024 [21] Group 3: Future Plans - The company plans to deepen its internationalization strategy over the next five years, focusing on maximizing the potential of its U.S. base and expanding into the African and Middle Eastern markets [30] - Hailiang aims to leverage its Southeast Asian bases to capture growth opportunities in emerging markets like India [30] - The company emphasizes that internationalization is not merely about capacity transfer but optimizing global resource allocation [30]