新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-27 高库存下 铜价暂时难有靓丽表现 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2026-02-26，沪铜主力合约开于 102880元/吨，收于 102670元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.20%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 102,880元/吨，收于 102,550 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.15%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨沪铜现货贴水预计延续承压。日内下游复工带动采销情绪小幅回暖，询价采购增多，但供应端持 续放量压制市场。隔月Contango月差维持在420-350元/吨，持货商交仓意愿分流现货流动性。进口及国产铜陆续到 货，下游复工进度滞后，社会库存增至53.17万吨历史高位，未匹配交割仓单亦形成压力。整体看，供应压力主导 下，今日现货贴水或仍将走扩。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，伊美第三轮间接谈判结束。伊朗外长称，双方在某些领域接近达成共识，下周一在维也纳举行 技术谈判。斡旋方阿曼的外长称谈判"取得重大进展"。媒体称双方分歧仍很大，美方坚持要求伊朗彻底拆除核设 施，所有浓缩铀转移出境；伊方提出铀浓缩在有限年限内停止核活动，之后浓缩活动在受监管的区域框架内恢复 ...

分析师 1: 好的。 袁澎 长江证券金属分析师: 好的，各位投者，大家下午好，我是长江金属王浩涛团队的于峰。那今天 3 点钟我们也是 邀请到咱海亮股份的董秘彭总跟我们做个最新的开门红的电话会议，也祝愿咱开门大吉， 金马腾飞。下面有请童总这边先大致回顾一下我们整个 25 年经营情况，然后也可以对我 们 26 年以及 27 年做一个大致掌握。 海亮股份董秘彭总: 各位老师，叶叶老师新年好，祝大家开工大吉。25 年你给我出了个小难题，叫我回顾 25 年的，咱不是今天，现在是在说这个开工的情况吗？我没有特别去准备，然后确实也不太 方便。但是我想其实结合着，要不就结合着这个，我本来给你准备的，因为方便你了解我 们这个今年 26 年的整个几个板块的一些情况，然后再结合着 25 年我们大概来说一下，你 看这样可以吗？哦。好的，那我们好的。对，是的，反正我们长江做做这个研究都是很扎 实的，所以我还是很认真的去跟我们的几个板块，那我是在昨天，因为想着初期，就是跟 大家把这个一二月份的情况，还有过年的一个情况，可以跟大家先做一下报告。 那么还是分成几块吧，就是，因为海亮现在我们主要是一个铜管铜棒，对吧？然后还有一 个铜箔。那我其 ...

Group 1 - The company held its ninth board meeting on February 11, 2026, where all nine directors were present, and the meeting was conducted in accordance with legal requirements [1][2][3] - The board approved the establishment of a technology joint research center with Tsinghua University, with an investment of 50 million yuan, which is not expected to have a significant short-term impact on the company's performance [2] - The board also approved the proposal for the company to conduct commodity futures hedging business for the year 2026, which will be submitted for shareholder approval [4][9] Group 2 - The purpose of the hedging business is to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations of raw materials such as copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead, which are essential for the company's production [10] - The company plans to invest up to 3 billion yuan in the hedging business using its own funds, with the investment period lasting for 12 months from the date of shareholder approval [11][13] - The hedging activities will be limited to raw materials directly related to the company's operations, and the company will implement strict internal controls and risk management measures [12][18] Group 3 - A second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders is scheduled for March 3, 2026, to discuss the approved proposals from the board meeting [6][20] - The meeting will allow for both on-site and online voting, with specific timeframes for participation [23][24] - Shareholders must register to attend the meeting, and detailed procedures for voting and registration have been outlined [30][31]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is neutral, and the recommendation for arbitrage is to hold off, while the option strategy is to sell put options [8] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand is decreasing, and the price of precious metals is still volatile. The price of copper is expected to range between 97,800 yuan/ton and 106,600 yuan/ton. It is not recommended to hold heavy positions during the Spring Festival holiday [8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On February 11, 2026, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 101,660 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 102,180 yuan/ton, a 0.61% increase from the previous trading day's close. The opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract in the night session was 103,620 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 101,840 yuan/ton, a 0.26% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 100 yuan/ton to par against the current 2602 contract, with an average discount of 50 yuan/ton, a 55 yuan/ton decrease from the previous trading day. The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper ranged from 101,100 to 101,530 yuan/ton [2] 2. Important Information Summary Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - In January, the US seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000, the largest increase since April last year. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, and the average hourly wage increased by 3.7% year - on - year. Traders now fully expect the Fed to cut interest rates in July, instead of June as previously expected. There are uncertainties regarding the North American trade agreement due to Trump's potential withdrawal [3] Mine End - Codelco's El Teniente project will have low production for about the next five years after a fatal accident last year. It is expected to produce 301,000 tons of copper this year. In December 2025, Codelco's copper production increased by 3.7% to 181,400 tons, while Escondida's production decreased by 16.5% to 111,500 tons, and Collahuasi's production decreased by 12.1% to 36,200 tons [4] Smelting and Import - The US has built up its largest copper inventory in decades. Traders are shipping copper to the US due to concerns about potential import tariffs. As of February 6, Comex copper inventory was about 534,405 tons, more than five times the level of a year ago. The total US copper reserve is estimated to be about 1 million tons, which can meet about 7 months of demand [5] Consumption - Spot trading was dull yesterday. Downstream enterprises are on holiday and inventory preparation is almost complete, leading to weak demand. The futures spread is in a contango structure, and holders are selling casually. In January 2026, the domestic copper rod production was 107,800 tons, a 3.21% decrease from December, with a comprehensive capacity utilization rate of 54.89%, a 1.83% decrease from the previous month [6] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 4,800 tons to 192,100 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 12,958 tons to 178,897 tons. On February 11, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 331,300 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous week [7]

Core Viewpoint - Hailiang Co., Ltd. has experienced a decline in stock price recently, with a notable drop of 11.84% over the past five trading days, despite a year-to-date increase of 1.74% [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of February 6, Hailiang's stock price was 12.88 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 29.518 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has seen a 15.21% increase over the past 60 days, contrasting with an 8.33% decrease over the last 20 days [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Hailiang reported a revenue of 64.933 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 4.52%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.925 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.21% [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 2.486 billion CNY, with 1.065 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 30,600, up by 83.72%, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 37.65% to 72,273 shares [2]. - The fifth largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 57.3828 million shares, an increase of 33.5988 million shares from the previous period [3].

Core Viewpoint - Short-term copper prices are fluctuating, but the outlook for copper prices in 2026 remains positive due to ongoing supply-demand tightness [4]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of January 30, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 103,680 CNY/ton, up 2.31% from January 23, while LME copper closed at 13,071 USD/ton, down 0.44% [4]. - The market perceives a low probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in March 2026, which may affect overall commodity sentiment [4]. Group 2: Inventory Analysis - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 2.2%, while LME copper inventory increased by 2.6% [5]. - As of January 30, 2026, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 673,000 tons, down 6.8% from the previous week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 986,000 tons, up 2.8% from January 23 [5]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper increased by 765 CNY/ton this week [6]. - In October 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year [6]. Group 4: Smelting and Production - China's electrolytic copper production in January 2026 was 1.1793 million tons, up 0.1% month-on-month and 16.3% year-on-year [7]. - The TC spot price as of January 30, 2026, was -50.30 USD/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.3 USD/ton from January 23 [7]. Group 5: Demand Insights - Cable manufacturing, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw an increase in operating rate to 59.46%, up 0.75 percentage points from the previous week [8]. - Air conditioning production, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to decline year-on-year by 31.6% in February, 6.5% in March, and increase by 4.0% in April [8]. Group 6: Futures Market - As of January 30, 2026, the open interest for SHFE copper active contracts was 223,000 lots, down 2.6% from the previous week [9]. - The non-commercial net long position on COMEX was 48,000 lots, down 8.0% from the previous week [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the global copper market hit a new high but with significant fluctuations. The rise was mainly driven by market sentiment and capital inflow, and the price increase was also affected by the changes in the US dollar index and the nomination of a new Fed chair. The domestic copper market showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with increased inventory and alleviated structural contradictions [5][8]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the global copper market is expected to shift from a tight - balance to a supply - shortage situation, with a projected shortage of 150,000 tons of refined copper. The supply of copper concentrates will remain tight, while the demand from the power grid, new energy, and AI sectors is expected to grow [48][89]. - The long - term upward trend of copper prices is clear. Financially, the US dollar index is likely to decline in the long - term, and copper is expected to be an important asset allocation for macro funds. Fundamentally, although the short - term supply is abundant, the long - term supply of copper concentrates is tight, and demand is expected to increase [118]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Copper Market Review in January - The global copper market in January 2026 hit a new high with significant fluctuations. London copper briefly broke through the $14,000 mark but then fell back. The monthly gains of LME copper and SHFE copper were both around 5%, with the outer market slightly stronger than the inner market. Market sentiment and capital inflow were more important factors than fundamentals. The rise in gold and silver prices led to capital overflow into the copper market, and the high gold - copper ratio provided upward momentum for copper valuation [5][8]. - Macroeconomically, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged in January, and the US dollar index fell to a nearly 4 - year low, boosting the prices of gold, silver, and copper. However, Trump's nomination of a new Fed chair at the end of the month caused a shock in global assets, and the US dollar index rebounded strongly, dragging down copper prices [8]. - Domestically, China's manufacturing PMI in December 2025 rose back to the expansion range but fell below 50 in January 2026. Liquidity was further relaxed, inflation recovered moderately, and market risk appetite increased [8]. - Fundamentally, domestic electrolytic copper production reached a new monthly high, while demand entered the off - season. The global copper market showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with increasing inventory and alleviated structural contradictions [8]. 3.2 Global Macro and Copper Market - China's inflation is expected to recover moderately in 2026. The manufacturing PMI in December 2025 rose back to the expansion range but fell below 50 in January 2026. The consumer price index and core CPI increased, and the PPI showed signs of recovery. The domestic economy is expected to continue the transformation trend of 2025, and copper will benefit from the strong demand in new energy, power grid investment, and AI data center construction [11][13]. - China's copper demand is likely to reach its peak and the growth rate will gradually slow down in the long - term, while the US copper demand has great growth potential due to the reshoring of manufacturing and the expansion of AI capital expenditure. The US is entering a new inventory replenishment cycle, which is positive for copper prices in the medium - term. Although Nvidia's downward revision of the copper demand forecast in data centers caused short - term negative sentiment, the impact on the overall supply - demand balance is limited [18]. - The US dollar index has weakened, which has boosted the prices of gold and silver. The Fed's interest rate decision and Trump's nomination of a new Fed chair have affected the US dollar index. In the long - term, the US dollar is likely to enter a downward cycle [20]. 3.3 Copper Supply Situation Analysis - **Mine End**: The global copper mine faces the problems of slow growth and decreasing grade. The annual compound growth rate of global copper mine production has declined from about 5% during 2015 - 2016 to about 2% in recent years. Major mining companies such as Southern Copper and Glencore have lowered their future production forecasts. The global copper concentrate supply shortage is difficult to alleviate in the short - term, and the supply gap is expected to widen in 2026 and may not be alleviated until 2028 [23][25][27]. - **Domestic Smelting End**: In 2025, China's electrolytic copper production reached a new high, mainly due to the release of new capacity, the high price of by - products such as sulfuric acid, and the substitution of scrap copper. In January 2026, domestic electrolytic copper production increased slightly, but it is expected to decline in February. In 2026, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to be about 13 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%, and global electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by 4% [31][33]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fees**: The long - term processing fee (TC/RC) of copper concentrates in 2026 has been set at $0/ton and $0 cents/lb, indicating a tight supply situation. The competition for global copper concentrates will become more intense, and the import copper concentrate index (TC) in China is expected to continue to decline [36]. - **Scrap Copper and Anode**: In 2025, China's recycled copper raw material imports and domestic recycling volume increased. The proportion of recycled copper raw materials flowing to the smelting end continued to rise. In January 2026, the spread between refined and scrap copper widened, and the supply of scrap anodes increased, boosting electrolytic copper production [37][39]. - **Electrolytic Copper Import and Export**: In 2025, China's electrolytic copper import volume decreased, and the export volume increased, achieving a tight supply - demand balance. In 2026, the adjustment trend of the import - export structure is expected to continue, and the net import volume may continue to decline [40][42]. 3.4 Copper Demand Situation Analysis - **Domestic Copper Products Production**: In 2025, China's copper products production reached a new high. In January 2026, production was in the seasonal off - season. In 2026, China's copper products production is expected to maintain double - digit growth, and global total demand is expected to increase by 4 - 5% year - on - year [45][48]. - **Refined Copper Rod**: In 2026, the production of refined copper rods is expected to increase significantly, mainly due to the strengthening of domestic power grid investment. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period will see a significant increase in power grid investment, and 2026 is expected to achieve double - digit growth [49][51]. - **Copper Tube**: In 2025, the output of copper tubes increased slightly. In 2026, the output is expected to decline slightly due to the limited effect of consumption - stimulating policies and the high - base effect of exports [52][54]. - **Copper Bar**: In 2025, the production of copper bars decreased, and in 2026, it is expected to continue to decline, becoming a drag on copper consumption due to factors such as the real estate downturn, high copper prices, and policy uncertainties [55][57]. - **Copper Plate and Strip**: In 2025, the production of copper plate and strip was lower than the average in recent years, and it is expected to continue to decline in 2026 due to the impact of the real estate cycle [58][60]. - **Copper Foil**: In 2025, the output of copper foil increased significantly, and in 2026, it is expected to maintain high - speed growth due to the development of the new energy vehicle and energy storage industries [61][67]. - **Power Grid Investment**: In 2025, power grid investment reached a new high. In the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, power grid investment is expected to increase significantly, and in 2026, the investment of the State Grid and Southern Grid is expected to reach 70 billion yuan and 19 billion yuan respectively, with a year - on - year growth rate of over 7% [68][71]. - **Real Estate Investment**: In 2025, real estate investment continued to decline, and in 2026, it is expected to remain a drag on copper consumption [72][74]. - **Home Appliance Consumption**: In 2025, the policy of replacing old home appliances with new ones boosted consumption, but the growth rate slowed down in the second half of the year. In 2026, the policy will continue, which is expected to support home appliance consumption [75][77]. - **New Energy Vehicles and AI**: In 2025, the production of new energy vehicles increased significantly, and it is expected to maintain high - speed growth in the future. The copper demand in the new energy and AI fields is expected to increase rapidly, and the combined copper demand is expected to account for 22% by 2030 [78][80]. 3.5 Copper Inventory Change Analysis - In 2025, the total inventory of the three major global exchanges increased, but the inventory structure was contradictory. In 2026, the global copper market shifted to a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the total inventory increased, with the structural contradiction alleviating. The domestic social inventory has entered the inventory accumulation cycle [83][85]. 3.6 Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance - In 2025, the global refined copper market was in a state of supply surplus. In 2026, it is expected to shift to a supply - shortage situation, with a shortage of 150,000 tons [89]. 3.7 Copper Position Analysis - As of January 20, 2026, the total position of COMEX copper futures and options increased, but the net long position decreased. The long - position of LME copper investment funds decreased in January, indicating that the market's bullish sentiment has become more cautious [97]. 3.8 Arbitrage Analysis - In January, the Shanghai - London ratio of copper decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline in 2026. The copper - zinc ratio has been rising and is expected to continue to rise in 2026 [102]. 3.9 Copper Option Market - In January, the historical volatility and implied volatility of copper options rose to a nearly 3 - year high. The market showed signs of over - buying in the short - term, and it is suitable to sell options. The option strategy suggests constructing a short - position of slightly out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums. The PCR ratio shows that the option market's expectation of copper prices has turned bullish [107][109]. 3.10 Copper Market Outlook and Operation Suggestions - Technically, copper has broken through the long - term shock range and formed a 20 - year cup - and - handle pattern, which is a bullish signal [116]. - In January, the rise of copper prices was mainly due to the repair of valuation. In the long - term, the downward trend of the US dollar index is clear, and copper is expected to be an important asset allocation for macro funds. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing. The operation suggestion is that downstream demanders can conduct long - term hedging operations, and the option strategy can consider selling slightly out - of - the - money put options or constructing a short - straddle strategy to short volatility. The short - term support range of the SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is expected to be 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton [118].

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：002203 证券简称：海亮股份 公告编号：2026-008 浙江海亮股份有限公司 第九届董事会第七次会议决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 浙江海亮股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第九届董事会第七次会议通知于2026年1月22日以电子邮 件、电话传真或送达书面通知的方式发出，会议于2026年1月23日下午在浙江省杭州市滨江区协同路368 号海亮科研大厦公司会议室召开，本次会议以现场表决和通讯表决相结合方式召开，会议应到董事九 名，实到董事九名，公司高级管理人员列席本次会议。本次会议由董事长冯橹铭先生主持。 本次会议出席人数、召开程序、议事内容均符合《中华人民共和国公司法》和《浙江海亮股份有限公司 章程》的规定，决议合法有效。 经全体董事认真审阅并在议案表决书上表决签字，会议审议通过了如下议案： 一、审议通过了《关于拟在意大利购买资产的议案》 具体内容详见公司同日在巨潮资讯网(www.cninfo.com.cn)披露的《关于拟在意大利购买资产的公告》 具体内容详见公司同日在巨潮资 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hailiang Co., Ltd. is advancing its global strategy through the Morocco project, which aims to leverage international operational advantages and mitigate domestic market competition risks [2] Group 1: Global Strategy - The Morocco project is a significant step in the company's comprehensive global layout strategy [2] - The project will help the company expand its experience and market resources while entering international markets [2] - The company aims to implement differentiated competition through this initiative [2] Group 2: Project Development - The construction of the Morocco base is currently progressing steadily [2] - Once completed, the facility is expected to cover multiple high-end copper processing products, including copper foil, copper rods, and copper fittings [2]

Group 1: Company Overview and Market Position - The company has been involved in aluminum material business since 2015, producing aluminum pipes and micro-channel flat tubes for various applications, including air conditioning and new energy sectors [1] - The company is a leading supplier of copper pipes and has not been affected by the recent aluminum substitution standards due to its diverse product offerings [1] Group 2: Global Expansion and Project Updates - The Morocco project is a key part of the company's global strategy, aimed at leveraging international operational advantages and mitigating domestic market risks [2] - The construction of the Morocco base is progressing steadily and will include high-end copper processing products such as copper foil, rods, and fittings [2] Group 3: Production Capacity and Demand - There is a current shortfall in copper foil production capacity due to high market demand, but the company is enhancing capacity utilization through technology upgrades [2] - Future capacity expansion will be based on customer orders and market demand, with plans to add new production lines if necessary [2] Group 4: Supply Chain and Procurement - The company has a global procurement strategy for raw materials, supported by a network of 23 production bases to ensure efficient and secure supply chains [2] Group 5: Research and Development Collaborations - The company is actively engaging in partnerships with universities for research in AI and new energy sectors, including the establishment of joint laboratories with West Lake University and Zhejiang University [3] Group 6: Employee Incentives and Performance Metrics - The 2026 employee stock ownership plan is designed to align the management team's efforts with industry trends and includes a clear assessment system based on 2025 operational data [3]