Company Overview - Jin Xun Resources (03636) saw a significant stock price increase of over 15% on its second day of trading, reaching a high of 46.16 HKD, which is more than a 50% rise from its IPO price of 30 HKD [1] - As of the latest update, the stock is up 16.03%, trading at 43.86 HKD with a transaction volume of 133 million HKD [1] Production and Market Position - Jin Xun Resources is a high-quality cathode copper manufacturer, ranking fifth among Chinese cathode copper producers based on production in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia, as per its prospectus citing Frost & Sullivan data [1] - The company is the only Chinese firm in the top five producers in both jurisdictions, with an estimated production of approximately 16,000 tons in DRC and 5,000 tons in Zambia for 2024 [1] - In the private sector in China, the company ranks third in DRC with a market share of 0.9% and holds the top position in Zambia [1] Industry Context - Cathode copper is a core raw material for copper processing, which can be further processed into copper rods, pipes, and foils, widely used in consumer electronics, infrastructure, construction, and transportation industries [1] - The global copper industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance driven by downstream sectors such as AI, new energy, consumer electronics, and infrastructure [1] - The company has cornerstone investors including Glencore, which provides significant backing from industry giants [1]

报告摘要 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 （1）铜矿：2025年10月中国铜精矿产量为13.0 万吨，环比-8.1%，同比-12.1%；10月全球铜精矿产量为 193.8万吨，同比-2.4%，环比+1.9%。（2）废铜：截至2026年1月9日，精废价差为4401 元/吨，环比1月2 日+1023 元/吨。 冶炼：本周TC现货价为-45.1美元/吨，创历史新低 1）产量：2025年12月SMM中国电解铜产量117.81万吨，环比+6.8%，同比+7.5%。（2）TC：截至2026年 1月9日，TC现货价为-45.10 美元/吨，环比1月4日-0.1 美元/吨，处于2007年9月以来低位。（3）进出口： 11月电解铜进口27.1 万吨，环比-3.9%，同比-24.7%；出 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hailiang Co., Ltd. has shown a mixed performance in stock price and financial metrics, with a notable increase in shareholder numbers and a slight decline in revenue [1][2][3] Group 2 - As of December 18, Hailiang's stock price increased by 2.08% to 11.80 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 27.043 billion CNY [1] - The company has experienced a year-to-date stock price increase of 12.58%, with a recent 5-day increase of 0.60% and a 20-day increase of 2.52%, while it has seen a 60-day decline of 2.59% [1] - For the period from January to September 2025, Hailiang reported a revenue of 64.933 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 4.52%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 5.21% to 0.925 billion CNY [2] - The company has distributed a total of 2.486 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.065 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 83.72% to 30,600, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 37.65% to 72,273 shares [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Hailiang Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price decline of 2.03% on December 2, with a current price of 12.06 CNY per share and a market capitalization of 27.639 billion CNY [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Year-to-date, Hailiang's stock price has increased by 15.07%, but it has decreased by 3.05% over the last five trading days [2] - The stock has shown an increase of 11.87% over the last 20 days and a slight increase of 0.38% over the last 60 days [2] - Hailiang has appeared on the stock market's "龙虎榜" once this year, with the most recent occurrence on August 4 [2] Group 2: Company Overview - Hailiang Co., Ltd. was established on October 29, 2001, and went public on January 16, 2008 [2] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of copper pipes, copper rods, copper fittings, copper-aluminum composite conductors, and aluminum profiles [2] - The revenue composition includes copper pipes (61.25%), raw materials (23.03%), copper rods (7.25%), copper foils (4.51%), copper bars (3.59%), and others (0.37%) [2] - Hailiang is classified under the industrial metals sector, specifically in copper, and is involved in concepts such as seawater desalination and specialized new products [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Hailiang reported a revenue of 65.018 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 4.56% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.925 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.21% [2] Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 30,600, up by 83.72% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 37.65% to 72,273 shares [2] - Hailiang has distributed a total of 2.486 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.065 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3]

Core Insights - The copper market is expected to maintain a tight balance in supply and demand, with prices projected to rise, reaching historical highs by the end of 2025, driven by financial factors and market sentiment rather than actual demand shortages [2][4][15] - Global refined copper demand in 2024 is anticipated to be dominated by China, accounting for 58% of total consumption, while the U.S. will contribute 6% [2][24] - China's copper demand is expected to grow steadily in 2025, with significant increases in the production of copper rods and tubes, while copper foil shows exceptional performance [3][25] Supply and Demand Dynamics - From January to August 2025, the global copper supply and demand remained in a tight balance, with an average monthly surplus of 0.8 thousand tons, despite high prices suppressing demand [2][19] - The refined copper consumption in 2025 is projected to increase, primarily driven by China, Japan, and Germany, while demand from Mexico and Finland is expected to decline [20][24] - The supply side is characterized by a slow increase in C1 costs and ongoing shortages in the mining sector, with refined copper production growth lagging behind that of copper concentrate [3][19] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The copper price is expected to experience fluctuations, with a projected average of $9,704 per ton in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [4][12] - The price movements in 2025 are influenced by traditional commodity attributes, with financial attributes showing a negative correlation, particularly as the U.S. dollar fluctuates [4][13][15] - The anticipated tight supply and steady demand are expected to keep copper prices on an upward trajectory, potentially reaching $10,500 per ton in 2026 [5][15] Investment Strategies - Investment opportunities are identified in upstream mining resources, particularly in companies with significant resource advantages, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [5] - Downstream processing companies with high barriers to entry are also recommended, including Hailiang Co., with a focus on those performing well in their respective sectors [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The valuation of copper is slightly bearish with a neutral bias. The global manufacturing PMI has a neutral driving force, the short - term decline in copper concentrate processing fees is bullish, and the rise in the US dollar index is bearish. Geopolitical factors suppress risk appetite, while copper raw material supply remains tight. Although domestic smelting maintenance is decreasing marginally, downstream operating rates remain strong, and the short - term pressure on inventory accumulation in China is not significant. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. The trading range for the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be between 84,800 - 87,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is expected to be between 10,550 - 11,000 US dollars/ton [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: Spot processing fees for copper concentrates declined, and those for blister copper remained flat. Codelco's 2026 CIF South Korea electrolytic copper long - term contract offer increased by 245 US dollars/ton compared to 2025 [11]. - Inventory: The combined inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 38,000 tons, with SHFE inventory rising to 111,000 tons, LME inventory to 155,000 tons, and COMEX inventory to 362,000 tons. Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 5,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 90 yuan/ton over futures, and the LME Cash/3M premium was 1.1 US dollars/ton [11]. - Imports and Exports: The loss on domestic electrolytic copper spot imports narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium rebounded. In October 2025, China's refined copper imports were 323,000 tons, with net imports of 257,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90,000 tons and a year - on - year decline of 31.6%. From January to October, cumulative imports were 3.225 million tons, and net imports were 2.676 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [11]. - Demand: The operating rate of domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises increased, and spot transactions remained warm. The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread narrowed, reducing the substitution advantage of scrap copper, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises declined further [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: Copper prices fluctuated downward. The main SHFE copper contract fell 1.43% for the week, and LME copper fell 0.63% to 10,778 US dollars/ton [22]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices of electrolytic copper and copper products showed different degrees of change, and the price spreads also varied [24]. - Premiums and Discounts: The spot premium of copper in East China was 90 yuan/ton over futures. The LME Cash/3M premium first declined and then rose, reaching 1.1 US dollars/ton on Friday. The loss on domestic electrolytic copper spot imports continued to narrow, and the Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) rebounded [27]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: The spot TC for imported copper concentrates declined to - 42.3 US dollars/ton, and the price of sulfuric acid in East China increased, positively boosting copper smelting revenue [35]. - Import - Export Ratio: No specific information on the change trend is provided. - Import - Export Profit and Loss: The loss on copper spot imports narrowed [40]. - Inventory: The combined inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 38,000 tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 5,000 tons. The increase in SHFE inventory came from Shanghai, and the decrease came from Guangdong and Jiangsu. The number of copper warehouse receipts decreased by 40 to 49,790 tons. The increase in LME inventory came from Asian warehouses, and European inventory decreased slightly. The proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts declined [43][46][49]. 4. Supply Side - Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output: According to SMM, China's refined copper output in October 2025 decreased by about 30,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to decline slightly in November. According to NBS data, domestic refined copper output in October was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%, and the cumulative output from January to October was 12.295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [54]. - Import and Export Situation: In October 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.451 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. From January to October, cumulative imports were 25.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. Unwrought copper and copper products imports were 438,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 52,000 tons but a year - on - year increase of 2%. Anode copper imports were 55,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons but a year - on - year decline of 8.6%. Refined copper imports were 323,000 tons, with net imports of 257,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90,000 tons and a year - on - year decline of 31.6%. Refined copper exports were 66,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons. The profit from domestic spot copper feed - processing exports narrowed. Recycled copper imports were 197,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. From January to October, cumulative imports were 1.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [57][60][63][69][72]. 5. Demand Side - Consumption Structure: China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs in October both weakened. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies was divided, with improvements in the Eurozone, India, and the UK, and weakening in the US and Japan [79]. - Downstream Industry Output Data: In October, the year - on - year output of automobiles, color TVs, and power generation equipment increased, while that of refrigerators, air conditioners, washing machines, freezers, and AC motors decreased. From January to October, the cumulative output of power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and AC motors increased, while that of color TVs and freezers decreased [82]. - Real Estate Data: Domestic real estate data in October continued to be weak, with new construction, construction, sales, and completion all declining year - on - year. The decline in construction remained the same, while the decline in new construction, sales, and completion widened. The National Housing Climate Index continued to decline [85]. - Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates: In October, the operating rates of refined copper rod, enameled wire, wire and cable, copper tube, brass rod, and copper strip enterprises declined, while the operating rate of copper foil enterprises increased. It is expected that the operating rates of these enterprises will rebound or increase slightly in November [88][91][94][97]. - Refined - Scrap Price Spread: The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread narrowed, reaching 2,675 yuan/ton on Friday [100]. 6. Capital Side - SHFE Copper Positions: The total SHFE copper positions decreased by 71,216 to 1,034,950 lots (bilateral), and the positions of the nearby 2512 contract were 249,184 lots (bilateral) [105]. - Foreign Fund Positions: As of October 7, CFTC funds maintained a net long position, with a net long ratio of 13.3%. The proportion of long positions of LME investment funds stabilized as of November 14 [108].

Group 1 - Hailiang Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 5.3%, reaching 12.12 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 367 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.39%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 27.776 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on October 29, 2001, and listed on January 16, 2008, is located in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, and specializes in the research, production, and sales of copper pipes, copper rods, copper fittings, copper-aluminum composite conductors, and aluminum profiles [1] - The main revenue composition of Hailiang includes copper pipes (61.25%), raw materials (23.03%), copper rods (7.25%), copper foils (4.51%), copper bars (3.59%), and others (0.37%) [1] Group 2 - According to data from the top ten holdings of funds, one fund under Jiao Yin Schroder has a significant position in Hailiang Co., Ltd. The Jiao Yin Hui Xuan Rui Xin One-Year Holding Period Mixed Fund (FOF) A (015326) held 477,800 shares, accounting for 1.49% of the fund's net value, making it the second-largest holding [2] - The Jiao Yin Hui Xuan Rui Xin One-Year Holding Period Mixed Fund (FOF) A (015326) was established on July 27, 2022, with a current scale of 286 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 18.11%, ranking 189 out of 342 in its category; the one-year return is 17.6%, ranking 175 out of 330; and since inception, the return is 3.16% [2]

Company Overview - Hailiang Co., Ltd. is located in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, and was established on October 29, 2001. The company was listed on January 16, 2008. Its main business involves the research, production, and sales of copper pipes, copper rods, copper fittings, copper-aluminum composite conductors, and aluminum profiles [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Hailiang achieved a revenue of 65.018 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.56%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.925 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.21% [2]. - Cumulatively, Hailiang has distributed 2.486 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.065 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Performance - As of November 13, Hailiang's stock price increased by 2.06%, reaching 11.41 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 26.149 billion yuan. The stock has risen by 8.86% year-to-date, with a 4.49% increase over the last five trading days, but has seen a decline of 7.86% over the last 20 days and 5.66% over the last 60 days [1]. - The number of shareholders as of September 30 was 30,600, an increase of 83.72% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 37.65% to 72,273 shares [2]. Shareholding Structure - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the fifth-largest circulating shareholder, holding 57.3828 million shares, an increase of 33.5988 million shares from the previous period. The Southern CSI 500 ETF exited the list of the top ten circulating shareholders [3]. Market Activity - Hailiang's stock has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with the most recent occurrence on August 4 [1]. - The stock's trading activity showed a net outflow of 1.6901 million yuan from main funds, with significant buying and selling activity from large orders [1]. Industry Classification - Hailiang is classified under the industrial metals sector, specifically in the copper category, and is associated with concepts such as copper foil, Industry 4.0, seawater desalination, specialized and innovative enterprises, and mid-cap stocks [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resurgence of copper arbitrage trading as traders bet on the potential reintroduction of high tariffs on copper by the Trump administration in the coming year [1][2] - Major trading firms, including Mercuria Energy Group, Vitol Group, and Trafigura Group, are negotiating annual agreements for copper supply to the U.S. for 2026, with offers exceeding the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark price by over $500 per ton [1][2] - The expectation of renewed tariffs has led to a significant increase in the price of copper on the New York Comex, which is now substantially higher than LME prices, indicating a potential continuation of market volatility [1][2] Group 2 - Earlier this year, traders like Mercuria and Trafigura profited significantly by shipping large quantities of copper to the U.S. before the initial tariff announcement, which resulted in record import levels and pushed copper prices to historical highs despite weak demand [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has suggested delaying the implementation of tariffs until 2027, with a proposed 15% tariff increasing to 30% by 2028, creating uncertainty that traders are eager to exploit [2] - The willingness of traders to pay high premiums for copper is driven by the potential for higher resale prices in the U.S. market [2]

Core Insights - The copper arbitrage trading, previously impacted by tariffs, is resurging as traders bet on potential high tariffs on copper by the Trump administration next year [1][2] - Major trading firms like Mercuria, Vitol, and Trafigura are negotiating annual supply agreements for copper with Chilean producers for 2026, with offers exceeding the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark price by over $500 per ton [1][2] - The expectation of renewed tariffs has led to a significant increase in New York Comex copper prices, which are now substantially higher than LME futures prices [1][2] Group 1 - Earlier this year, traders like Mercuria and Trafigura profited significantly by shipping large quantities of copper to the U.S. before the initial tariff proposal by Trump in February [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has suggested delaying the imposition of a 15% tariff until 2027, increasing to 30% by 2028, creating uncertainty that traders are capitalizing on [2] - Traders are willing to pay high premiums for copper as they anticipate being able to resell it at higher prices in the U.S. market [2] Group 2 - In July, the Trump administration's unexpected exemption of raw copper from tariffs led to a dramatic market reaction, with Comex copper futures dropping 22% in a single day, marking the largest decline since at least 1988 [3][4] - The exemption caused a rapid disappearance of the price premium that Comex copper had over LME prices, leading to a shift to a discount [3] - Following the exemption announcement, the number of profitable put options surged, indicating a significant market shift [4]