中金估计今年香港银行财富管理业务仍将保持增长态势，增速受境内外投资回报率预期以及全球经济影 响。新加坡、印度、中东也是财富业务增长较快的区域，中国香港银行在上述区域的网点布局也将推动 收入增长。 中金又预计今年市场仍处于降息周期，美联储12月点阵图显示2026年或降息1至2次，2027年降息0至1 次，此后来到3%的水平。基于此背景，预计香港银行净息差或继续收窄，但符合预期的降息幅度下， 叠加小幅的资产增长，净利息收入降幅或维持低单位数。 中金发布研报称，过去一年香港银行股价表现较优，主要由于有形净资产回报率ROTE的超预期抬升。 展望2026年，中金预计上市香港银行资本回报率或仍能维持10%至17%的较高水平，分红及回购回报率 仍有7%左右，存在配置价值。 中金续指，预计今年香港银行信用成本或有小幅上行，但仍可控制在30至50基点的范围。主要关注内地 房地产和中国香港房地产市场演化、海外中高利率环境下的散发式风险暴露，以及金融市场波动带来的 潜在风险。但预计香港银行成本收入比或继续下降。 ...

Core Insights - The banking sector is experiencing positive signals, with a recovery in wealth management business driven by a warming capital market, leading to expected revenue growth [1] - The central bank governor has proposed policies to support personal credit repair, which is anticipated to expand retail loans once implemented in early 2026 [1] - Financial asset risk classification regulations are set to transition in 2025, allowing for more robust provisioning by listed banks, with expectations of declining credit costs in 2026 [1] Banking Sector Overview - Wealth management income for a major bank is projected to grow by 18.8% year-on-year by Q3 2025 [1] - Listed banks are expected to achieve stable performance in 2026, with both revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders anticipated to show positive year-on-year growth [1] - Net interest income growth is expected to outperform that of 2025 [1] Investment Strategy - There is a clear trend of improvement in the fundamentals of bank stocks, although individual performance may vary [1] - It is suggested to consider investing in bank sectors with strong earnings certainty through index investment tools such as bank ETFs (515020) [1]