中金估计今年香港银行财富管理业务仍将保持增长态势，增速受境内外投资回报率预期以及全球经济影 响。新加坡、印度、中东也是财富业务增长较快的区域，中国香港银行在上述区域的网点布局也将推动 收入增长。 中金又预计今年市场仍处于降息周期，美联储12月点阵图显示2026年或降息1至2次，2027年降息0至1 次，此后来到3%的水平。基于此背景，预计香港银行净息差或继续收窄，但符合预期的降息幅度下， 叠加小幅的资产增长，净利息收入降幅或维持低单位数。 中金发布研报称，过去一年香港银行股价表现较优，主要由于有形净资产回报率ROTE的超预期抬升。 展望2026年，中金预计上市香港银行资本回报率或仍能维持10%至17%的较高水平，分红及回购回报率 仍有7%左右，存在配置价值。 中金续指，预计今年香港银行信用成本或有小幅上行，但仍可控制在30至50基点的范围。主要关注内地 房地产和中国香港房地产市场演化、海外中高利率环境下的散发式风险暴露，以及金融市场波动带来的 潜在风险。但预计香港银行成本收入比或继续下降。 ...

机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：郑庆明/林颖颖/冯思远/李禹昊 2）只要"零利率"不再现，息差就不会断崖受挫；叠加利率对冲工具，降息扰动有限。本轮美联储"预防 式"降息始于2025 年9 月，本质在于"防衰退"，这对稳信贷需求是积极的；目标利率也是中性水平（约 3%）而非"零利率"。渣打2Q25 结构性对冲工具（利率掉期、长期限债券等）750 亿美元，平均利率水 平3.6%。极端假设下若继续降息100bps，对净利息收入冲击仅5.7 亿美元，内部测算仅影响净息差10bps （3Q25 渣打净息差1.94%，汇丰为1.57%）。 3）渣打对中国商业地产的风险资产敞口有限且拨备计提充分，信用成本保持低位。2Q25 渣打内地、中 国香港房地产贷款合计占总贷款0.6%，相关不良拨备覆盖率高达89%（2021:18%），地产风险无需过 虑。3Q25 集团不良率为1.93%，较2015 年下降近300bps，拨备覆盖率80%（计算口径为"总拨备/阶段三 贷款"）为过去10 年新高，也明显领先其他同业（汇丰仅43%），预计后续信用成本仍将稳居低位 （2024 年约0.2%，中期审慎指引为0.3%-0.35%）。 4）通过精简机 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [2] Core Viewpoints - The overall operating income, pre-provision profit, and net profit growth rates for listed banks in the first three quarters of 2025 are 0.91%, 0.56%, and 1.48% respectively, indicating a recovery in performance driven by scale and an ongoing improvement in fee income [4][12] - The growth rate of interest-earning assets for listed banks is 9.40% year-on-year, with loans and debt investments increasing by 7.83% and 13.94% respectively [4][5] - The net interest margin for listed banks is stable at 1.35%, with a slight decline in state-owned banks, while other types of banks have stabilized [5] - Non-interest income has increased by 5.02% year-on-year, although it has seen a quarter-on-quarter decline due to adjustments in the bond market [5] - The asset quality is improving, with the non-performing loan ratio at 1.23%, showing a slight decrease from the previous half-year [5] Summary by Sections 1. Performance Recovery Driven by Scale and Fee Improvement - In the first three quarters of 2025, listed banks showed a growth in operating income, pre-provision profit, and net profit, with respective growth rates of 0.91%, 0.56%, and 1.48% [12] - City commercial banks outperformed other types of banks, while state-owned banks also showed positive growth [12] 2. Growth of Interest-Earning Assets and Slower Expansion of Liabilities - The year-on-year growth rate of interest-earning assets for listed banks is 9.40%, with loans and debt investments increasing by 7.83% and 13.94% respectively [4][5] 3. Stabilization of Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin for listed banks is stable at 1.35%, with a slight decline in state-owned banks [5] 4. Non-Interest Income Performance Affected by Bond Market Adjustments - Non-interest income increased by 5.02% year-on-year, but saw a quarter-on-quarter decline due to bond market adjustments [5] 5. Improvement in Asset Quality and Declining Credit Costs - The non-performing loan ratio for listed banks is 1.23%, showing a slight decrease from the previous half-year, with a significant decline in credit costs [5][12] 6. Investment Recommendations - Focus on banks with significant deposit maturities and potential for interest margin improvement, such as Chongqing Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Bank of Communications [6] - Attention to city commercial banks that will benefit from improvements in fixed asset investment, such as Jiangsu Bank, Qilu Bank, and Qingdao Bank [6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" and has been maintained from the previous rating [5]. Core Viewpoints - The retail loan quality is under pressure, with growth slowing down, and the overall retail loan bad debt ratio has been on the rise since 2022, reaching 1.29% in Q2 2025, an increase of 13 basis points from Q4 2024 [2][12]. - Retail loan growth is weak, with a year-on-year increase of only 3.5% in Q2 2025, which is a further slowdown compared to 2024 [20]. - Banks are increasing efforts to dispose of retail bad debts, which is expected to mitigate the impact of retail loan risk exposure on overall asset quality [3][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Retail Loan Asset Quality Under Pressure, Growth Slowing - As of Q2 2025, the total retail loan amount of listed banks reached 63.3 trillion yuan, accounting for 34.3% of total loans [2][11]. - The retail loan bad debt ratio has continued to rise, with the overall bad debt ratio for listed banks at 1.23% [12][19]. - The increase in retail bad debts is attributed to weak consumer demand and a decline in repayment capacity, with the retail bad loan balance growing by 28.7% year-on-year [20][21]. 2. Retail Loan Risk Exposure Easing, Credit Cost Pressure Marginally Reduced - The bad debt generation rate for retail loans in H1 2025 was 1.18%, slightly up from 2024, but the increase is less pronounced compared to previous years [34][35]. - The marginal easing of credit cost pressure is reflected in the credit cost for retail loans, which increased by only 1 basis point to 1.02% in H1 2025 [35][41]. - The overall retail loan risk exposure is expected to remain manageable due to banks' proactive measures in bad debt disposal [33]. 3. Retail Asset Quality Outlook: Policy Support, Risks Expected to Continue Easing - The overall credit risk of retail loans is expected to continue easing under supportive policies, particularly in consumer credit [4]. - The asset quality of consumer credit, including housing loans, is anticipated to stabilize marginally, while the asset quality in the small and micro-enterprise sector may continue to face pressure [4].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the life insurance industry in China, highlighting its evolution, challenges, and market dynamics [1][12][17]. Key Points and Arguments Life Insurance Product Characteristics - Life insurance products are not merely contracts but also convey values, necessitating continuous business expansion to meet diverse customer needs [1][2]. - The distinction between life insurance and property insurance lies in underwriting subjects and risk management; life insurance involves complex demographic and actuarial models, introducing interest rate risks [1][4]. Mergers and Acquisitions - Life insurance companies are increasingly engaging in mergers and acquisitions to expand market share, acquire customer resources, and enhance product diversity [2][3]. - The financial metrics indicate that mergers can optimize balance sheets, improve capital return rates, and achieve economies of scale [3]. Market Dynamics - The Chinese insurance industry has experienced three significant development phases: 1. Rapid growth driven by critical illness insurance starting in 2013. 2. Expansion following the cancellation of agent exams in 2015. 3. Disruption from the introduction of low-cost "惠民保" (Huiminbao) products post-2020, which significantly impacted traditional critical illness insurance [12][13][14]. Pricing Logic - The pricing logic for insurance products is based on a cost-plus model, incorporating death benefits, operational costs, and time costs [6][21]. - Key pricing factors include mortality differences, expense differences, and interest differences, with actuaries analyzing historical data to forecast future cash flows [6][8]. Sales and Distribution - Life insurance products require a substantial number of agents for sales due to their intangible nature, necessitating face-to-face interactions to convey the product's value [7][29]. - The sales process emphasizes the transmission of values, such as family responsibility, rather than straightforward product pricing [5][7]. Financial Performance and Challenges - The current new business value of life insurance companies in China is less than 5% of their existing liabilities, indicating difficulties in re-pricing liabilities in response to market interest rate fluctuations [22][23]. - The life insurance sector is characterized by rigid liability costs, making it challenging to adjust quickly to changing market conditions [21][25]. Investment Trends - The ongoing decline in fixed-income product yields has led insurance funds to increase equity asset allocations, driving a systemic valuation recovery [27][28]. - The preference for low-valuation stocks among debt-like funds is a core logic for recommending investments in the insurance sector [27][19]. Future Outlook - The life insurance industry is expected to face continued pressure on return on equity (ROE) due to declining interest rates, with 2023 ROE at 9% and projected to rise to 17% in 2024 [26]. - The shift towards savings-type products and the need for stable liability coverage will be critical for the industry's future performance [31][17]. Regulatory and Market Environment - The regulatory environment and macroeconomic conditions significantly influence the life insurance sector, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of these factors for effective analysis [45][46]. Additional Important Insights - The introduction of "惠民保" has altered consumer perceptions of critical illness insurance, leading to a decline in traditional product sales [13][14]. - The life insurance industry's reliance on long-term stability strategies rather than rapid market responses is emphasized due to the challenges in adjusting liability costs [22][23]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the life insurance industry's current state and future prospects.

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 40.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.9% [1] - Net profit from continuing operations reached 5.5 billion yuan, up 19.7% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 6.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.7% increase [1] - The annualized ROE was 21.1% and ROA was 1.1% for the first half of 2025 [1] Financial Performance - Total assets at the end of Q2 2025 amounted to 1.01 trillion yuan, a 2.7% increase from the beginning of the year, but a 4.2% decrease year-on-year [1] - The non-performing asset management segment saw a 2.7% increase in total assets compared to the beginning of the year, while the asset management and investment segment's total assets grew by 1.6% [1] Segment Performance - The non-performing asset management segment's revenue increased by 58.3% year-on-year, primarily due to approximately 21.3 billion yuan in income from investments in China Bank and Everbright Bank [2] - Revenue from the asset management and investment segment decreased by 85.1%, with its share of income before group offset dropping to 5.6% [2] - Within the non-performing asset segment, income from acquisition and disposal business and acquisition and restructuring business declined, while income from rescue and revitalization business and equity business increased year-on-year [2] Credit Costs and Risk Management - The credit cost rate for the first half of 2025 was 15.3%, significantly up year-on-year, primarily due to increased credit impairment on debt instruments measured at amortized cost [2] - The overall provision coverage ratio for debt instruments measured at amortized cost and those measured at fair value, with changes included in other comprehensive income, was 270% as of June 2025, an increase of 44 percentage points from the beginning of the year [2] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to ordinary shareholders of 10.4 billion yuan, 10.9 billion yuan, and 11.0 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.5%, 4.1%, and 1.1% respectively [3] - The estimated EPS for the same period is projected to be 0.13 yuan, 0.14 yuan, and 0.14 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 7.6, 7.3, and 7.3 times, and PB ratios of 1.70, 1.38, and 1.16 times [3] - The reasonable stock price range is estimated to be between 1.16 and 1.28 HKD, indicating a premium of 6% to 17% compared to the closing price on September 12 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities initiates coverage on CITIC Financial Assets (02799) with a "Neutral" rating, projecting net profit for ordinary shareholders to reach 10.4 billion, 10.9 billion, and 11.0 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 8.5%, 4.1%, and 1.1% respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.13, 0.14, and 0.14 yuan, and PE ratios of 7.6, 7.3, and 7.3 times, while PB ratios are 1.70, 1.38, and 1.16 times, suggesting a reasonable stock price range of 1.16-1.28 HKD [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, CITIC Financial Assets achieved operating revenue (including performance from joint ventures and associates) of 40.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%, and net profit from continuing operations of 5.5 billion yuan, up 19.7%, with net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders reaching 6.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.7% increase, while annualized ROE stood at 21.1% and ROA at 1.1% [1] Asset Growth - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total assets of the company amounted to 1.01 trillion yuan, marking a 2.7% increase from the beginning of the year but a 4.2% decrease year-on-year. The total assets in the non-performing asset management segment grew by 2.7% compared to the beginning of the year, while the asset management and investment segment saw a 1.6% increase [2] Segment Performance - The non-performing asset management segment reported a revenue increase of 58.3% year-on-year, primarily due to approximately 21.3 billion yuan in income from investments in China Bank and Everbright Bank. Conversely, the asset management and investment segment experienced an 85.1% decline in revenue, with its share of income before group offsets dropping to 5.6% [3] Credit Cost and Risk Management - The credit cost rate for the first half of the year was 15.3%, significantly up year-on-year, attributed to increased credit impairment on debt instruments measured at amortized cost. The substantial provisioning has enhanced the company's risk resilience, with the overall provision coverage ratio for debt instruments measured at amortized cost and those measured at fair value, with changes recorded in other comprehensive income, reaching 270% by the end of June 2025, an increase of 44 percentage points from the beginning of the year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of East Asia Bank in 1H25 showed a decline in operating income but an increase in net profit, primarily due to lower impairment losses [1][2]. Financial Performance - 1H25 operating income decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, mainly due to the decline in HIBOR compressing interest margin [1]. - 1H25 net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders increased by 24.7% year-on-year, outperforming expectations due to reduced impairment losses [1]. - Net interest income in 1H25 fell by 10.7% year-on-year and 11.5% quarter-on-quarter, slightly more than peers, due to concentrated credit exposure in Hong Kong and mainland China [1]. - Non-interest income showed strong performance, with other non-interest income up by 50.5% year-on-year, driven by foreign exchange gains; fee income reached HKD 1.65 billion, up 16.6% year-on-year, benefiting from high demand in cross-border wealth management [1][2]. Customer Growth and Credit Costs - The number of customers from mainland China increased by 62% year-on-year, and customers from Hong Kong increased by 54%, leading to a 285% year-on-year growth in retail banking fee income [2]. - Credit costs have decreased from high levels, contributing to the better-than-expected net profit; 1H25 provisioning decreased by 11.9% year-on-year and 2.9% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased by 9 basis points to 2.63%, while the provisioning coverage ratio slightly declined to 37.3% [2]. Outlook and Valuation - The company maintains a cautious outlook on credit costs, expecting levels in 2H25 to not be lower than those in 1H25 (0.95%) and for the full year 2025 to be no lower than 2024 (1.03%) [2]. - The target price has been raised by 25% to HKD 14.12, reflecting a 4.4% upside potential, with the company currently trading at 0.4X 2025E/2026E P/B [2].

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains its forecast for East Asia Bank (00023) and raises the target price by 25% to HKD 14.12, reflecting a 4.4% upside potential based on 0.4X P/B for 2025E/2026E [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's 1H25 operating income decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, in line with expectations, primarily due to the decline in HIBOR compressing interest margin [1] - Net interest income for 1H25 fell by 10.7% year-on-year and 11.5% quarter-on-quarter, slightly more than peers, due to concentrated credit exposure in Hong Kong and mainland China, where interest rate cuts have pressured margins [2] - Non-interest income showed strong performance, with other non-interest income up by 50.5% year-on-year, driven by foreign exchange gains; fee income reached HKD 1.65 billion, up 16.6% year-on-year, benefiting from high demand in cross-border wealth management [3] Group 2: Credit Quality and Provisions - Credit costs have decreased from high levels, contributing to better-than-expected net profit; provisions for 1H25 were down 11.9% year-on-year, with a credit cost of 0.95% [4] - The non-performing loan ratio decreased by 9 basis points to 2.63%, while the provision coverage ratio slightly declined to 37.3% [4] - The company remains cautious about future credit costs, expecting them to not be lower than 1H25 levels, considering potential asset quality deterioration in both Hong Kong and mainland China [4] Group 3: Dividend and Capital Management - The company maintained a stable dividend of HKD 0.39 per share for 1H25, with a dividend payout ratio of 45.3%, consistent with previous years [5] - Starting in 2025, Hong Kong banks will adopt Basel III, leading to a 25% year-on-year decrease in RWA and a 6.1 percentage point increase in the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio to 23.7% [5] - The company prioritizes maintaining a capital buffer for future economic conditions over directly increasing shareholder returns [5]

Group 1 - UBS downgraded Hang Seng Bank's rating from "Neutral" to "Sell" and lowered the target price from HKD 112 to HKD 102 [1] - The bank's net profit for the first half of the year fell by 34.6% year-on-year, with credit costs reaching a record high, resulting in performance below UBS and market expectations [1] - Management maintained a cautious outlook, indicating that expected credit losses (ECL) for the second half will be similar to the first half, suggesting that credit costs for the full year 2025 may exceed 100 basis points [1] Group 2 - Due to exposure to risks in Hong Kong's commercial real estate, UBS revised its earnings per share forecast for 2025-2026 down by 12% to 18% [1] - Despite a potential increase in the payout ratio to over 90%, the bank's dividend for 2025 is expected to be HKD 6.2, down from HKD 6.8 last year [1] - UBS noted that the HKD 3 billion share buyback plan is in line with expectations, and if loan demand remains weak next year, the buyback scale may be expanded [1]