中金估计今年香港银行财富管理业务仍将保持增长态势，增速受境内外投资回报率预期以及全球经济影 响。新加坡、印度、中东也是财富业务增长较快的区域，中国香港银行在上述区域的网点布局也将推动 收入增长。 中金又预计今年市场仍处于降息周期，美联储12月点阵图显示2026年或降息1至2次，2027年降息0至1 次，此后来到3%的水平。基于此背景，预计香港银行净息差或继续收窄，但符合预期的降息幅度下， 叠加小幅的资产增长，净利息收入降幅或维持低单位数。 中金发布研报称，过去一年香港银行股价表现较优，主要由于有形净资产回报率ROTE的超预期抬升。 展望2026年，中金预计上市香港银行资本回报率或仍能维持10%至17%的较高水平，分红及回购回报率 仍有7%左右，存在配置价值。 中金续指，预计今年香港银行信用成本或有小幅上行，但仍可控制在30至50基点的范围。主要关注内地 房地产和中国香港房地产市场演化、海外中高利率环境下的散发式风险暴露，以及金融市场波动带来的 潜在风险。但预计香港银行成本收入比或继续下降。 ...

机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：郑庆明/林颖颖/冯思远/李禹昊 2）只要"零利率"不再现，息差就不会断崖受挫；叠加利率对冲工具，降息扰动有限。本轮美联储"预防 式"降息始于2025 年9 月，本质在于"防衰退"，这对稳信贷需求是积极的；目标利率也是中性水平（约 3%）而非"零利率"。渣打2Q25 结构性对冲工具（利率掉期、长期限债券等）750 亿美元，平均利率水 平3.6%。极端假设下若继续降息100bps，对净利息收入冲击仅5.7 亿美元，内部测算仅影响净息差10bps （3Q25 渣打净息差1.94%，汇丰为1.57%）。 3）渣打对中国商业地产的风险资产敞口有限且拨备计提充分，信用成本保持低位。2Q25 渣打内地、中 国香港房地产贷款合计占总贷款0.6%，相关不良拨备覆盖率高达89%（2021:18%），地产风险无需过 虑。3Q25 集团不良率为1.93%，较2015 年下降近300bps，拨备覆盖率80%（计算口径为"总拨备/阶段三 贷款"）为过去10 年新高，也明显领先其他同业（汇丰仅43%），预计后续信用成本仍将稳居低位 （2024 年约0.2%，中期审慎指引为0.3%-0.35%）。 4）通过精简机 ...

Group 1 - The core strategy of Deutsche Bank aims to achieve a return on tangible equity (RoTE) of over 13% by 2028, up from the current target of "over 10%" for this year [1] - The bank plans to increase its profit distribution to shareholders to 60% starting next year, up from the current 50%, with excess cash allocated for growth or increased dividends [1] - Under CEO Christian Sewing's leadership since 2018, Deutsche Bank has recovered from losses and legal challenges, achieving record profits and a stock price increase of over six times from its low five years ago [1] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank will invest €1.5 billion over the next three years, with €600 million allocated for technology development, focusing on asset management, payments and services, and consulting [2] - The bank has shifted its focus from equity trading to its traditional strengths in fixed income, while also integrating Postbank's retail banking and strengthening its corporate banking division [2] - Deutsche Bank expects to meet its operational targets for the year, including €32 billion in revenue, a RoTE exceeding 10%, and a cost-to-income ratio below 65% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The banking and insurance sectors in China have shown signs of stability and growth, with improvements in net interest margins and asset quality, indicating a potential recovery phase for the industry [2][4][5]. Banking Sector Overview - As of the end of Q3 this year, the total assets of China's banking institutions reached 474.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. Large commercial banks accounted for 208.1 trillion yuan, growing by 10% [2]. - The net profit of commercial banks for the first three quarters was 1.9 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the same period last year. The net interest margin stood at 1.42%, stable compared to Q2 but down by 11 basis points year-on-year [4][5]. - The net interest margin for joint-stock commercial banks increased by 1 basis point compared to the end of Q2, indicating a trend towards stabilization [3][5]. Asset Quality and Loan Growth - By the end of Q3, the non-performing loan balance for commercial banks was 3.5 trillion yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.52%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous quarter [9]. - The balance of inclusive small and micro enterprise loans reached 36.5 trillion yuan, growing by 12.1% year-on-year, while inclusive agricultural loans increased to 14.1 trillion yuan [11]. Liquidity Indicators - The liquidity coverage ratio for commercial banks was 149.73%, up by 0.48 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating stable liquidity conditions [13]. - Other liquidity metrics, such as the net stable funding ratio and loan-to-deposit ratio, also showed slight improvements, reflecting a healthy liquidity position across the banking sector [13]. Market Position of Large Commercial Banks - The asset share of large commercial banks has risen to 43.88%, marking a new high in recent years, underscoring their dominant role in serving the real economy [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Changsha Bank reported a slight increase in revenue and a faster growth in net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating a stable financial performance despite some challenges in net interest margin and asset quality [1][2]. Financial Performance - The bank achieved an operating income of 13.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.3 billion, up 5.1% year-on-year [1]. - The annualized weighted average return on equity was 12.6%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Revenue growth rates for operating income, pre-provision profit, and net profit were 1.6%, 1.9%, and 5.1% respectively, with changes from the previous quarter of -2.2, -5.4, and +1.2 percentage points [2]. Loan and Asset Growth - As of the end of Q2 2025, the bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 10.9% and 13% year-on-year, maintaining strong expansion [3]. - New loans totaled 57.6 billion, an increase of 12.4 billion year-on-year, with the loan-to-interest-earning assets ratio rising to 56.5% [3]. - The bank focused its lending on sectors such as leasing services, water and environmental management, and manufacturing, with significant growth in green and inclusive agricultural loans [3]. Deposit and Funding Trends - By the end of Q2 2025, interest-bearing liabilities and deposits grew by 12.6% and 11.2% year-on-year, reflecting a steady increase [4]. - The bank added 36.2 billion in deposits, a year-on-year increase of 12.5 billion, with time deposits making up 61.3% of total deposits [5]. Interest Margin and Non-Interest Income - The net interest margin (NIM) for the first half of the year was 1.87%, down 24 basis points from 2024, but the decline was less severe compared to previous quarters [5]. - Non-interest income reached 3.6 billion, growing by 11.8% year-on-year and contributing 27% to total revenue [6]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was 1.17%, showing a slight decrease, while the provision coverage ratio remained strong at 310% [7]. - The bank's capital adequacy ratios were stable, with the core tier 1 capital ratio at 9.73% [7]. Future Outlook - The bank is expected to maintain a high credit growth rate and expand its asset base, with a focus on enhancing pricing resilience in the regional market [8]. - The bank's earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 2.02, 2.10, and 2.15, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating a "buy" rating [8].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangyin Bank released its 2025 semi-annual report, showing revenue, PPOP, and net profit attributable to shareholders growth rates of 10.5%, 14.7%, and 16.6% year-on-year, with respective changes from Q1 of +4.45pct, +6.27pct, and +14.40pct [1] Highlights - Steady growth in scale and optimized loan structure: As of Q2 2025, interest-earning assets and loans grew by 10.6% and 7.0% year-on-year, with changes from Q1 of 7bp and -19bp respectively. The proportion of corporate loans increased while the share of bill discounting decreased. Personal loans saw a 21bp decline in proportion, with the largest drop in housing mortgage loans at 1.13pct [2] - Stable asset quality and strengthened risk compensation ability: The non-performing loan ratio remained at 0.86% as of Q2 2025, consistent with Q1, maintaining a steady decline trend since 2024. The new non-performing loan generation rate for H1 2025 was 1.30%, down 48bp from the previous quarter, with a provision coverage ratio of 381.22%, up 31.22bp [2] - Improvement in net interest margin: The net interest margin for H1 2025 was 1.54%, up 3bp quarter-on-quarter. In Q2 2025, the yield on interest-earning assets was 3.14%, stable quarter-on-quarter, while the cost of interest-bearing liabilities decreased by 5bp to 1.53%, indicating potential for further improvement as high-cost liabilities mature [2] - Decrease in cost-to-income ratio: The cost-to-income ratio for H1 2025 was 23.74%, down 1.57pct quarter-on-quarter [2] - Continued high growth in investment income: Other non-interest income grew by 37.6% year-on-year in H1 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.95pct, driven by reduced market volatility and proactive cashing of financial investment gains, leading to an 81.44% increase in investment income [2] Concerns - Fee income remains under pressure: Net fee income decreased by 35.2% year-on-year in H1 2025, continuing the decline from Q1's -19.1% [3] - Volatility in quality forward indicators: The attention rate as of Q2 2025 was 1.10%, up 7bp from Q1. The proportion of loans in wholesale retail and construction sectors increased by 3.83% and 2.34% respectively, while the manufacturing sector's loan proportion decreased by 1.19%, necessitating further monitoring of potential non-performing loans in small and micro enterprises and real estate [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to achieve net profit growth rates of 5.68% and 6.97% for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with EPS of 0.87 and 0.94 yuan per share. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 5.29X and 4.95X for 2025 and 2026, and PB ratios of 0.56X and 0.52X. Considering the historical PB valuation center and fundamental conditions, a PB of 0.7 times the latest net asset value per share is suggested, corresponding to a fair value of 5.39 yuan per share, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank reported its strongest second-quarter performance since 2007, with a significant increase in pre-tax profit driven by a sharp decline in litigation-related costs [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2, Deutsche Bank's pre-tax profit surged to €2.4 billion, up from €0.4 billion in the same period last year, primarily due to a reduction in legal provisions [1]. - The bank released €85 million in legal provisions this quarter, compared to €1.3 billion in the same quarter last year related to the Postbank acquisition [1]. - The cost-to-income ratio improved significantly from 78.1% last year to 62.3% this year, moving towards the target of below 65% for the year [4]. Group 2: Investment Banking Division - The investment banking division contributed approximately one-third of the bank's revenue, showing mixed results [3]. - Fixed Income and Foreign Exchange (FICC) trading revenue increased by 11% year-on-year to €2.28 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [3]. - However, revenue from mergers and acquisitions advisory services declined by 29%, reflecting a slowdown in global trading activity [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Shareholder Commitment - The management expressed optimism about achieving all targets set for 2025 and plans to increase capital distribution to shareholders thereafter [6]. - Deutsche Bank confirmed it has submitted a stock buyback application to the European Central Bank, although specific amounts were not disclosed [6]. - The implementation of new capital regulations, known as CRR3, will not affect the bank's dividend strategy [6].

Group 1 - Guangxi Guigang Rural Commercial Bank plans to issue interbank certificates of deposit worth 100 million yuan for 2025 [1] - The bank's total assets reached 34.998 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 7.28%, and loan balance was 23.859 billion yuan, growing at 5.6% [1] - The bank achieved an operating profit of 716 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.77%, and as of March 2025, total assets reached 36.623 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The bank's net interest margin has been declining, from 3.25% in 2022 to 2.72% in 2024, although it slightly rebounded to 2.83% in Q1 2025 [2] - The cost-to-income ratio increased from 30.06% in 2023 to 34.59% in Q1 2025, indicating challenges in cost control [2] - The non-performing loan ratio was 3.13% in 2023, decreasing to 2.90% in 2024 and 2.80% in Q1 2025, but still remains at a relatively high level [2] Group 3 - The bank was established in March 2007, evolving from the Guigang City Rural Credit Cooperative, and was renamed several times, with the latest being Guangxi Guigang Rural Commercial Bank in June 2021 [2] - The bank is under the Guangxi Guigang Steel Group, with a registered capital of 503 million yuan [2] - The top four shareholders hold more than 5% of the shares, with Guangxi Guigang Steel Group holding 9.69% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The bank's Q1 2025 financial performance shows stable revenue growth but a decline in net profit growth, driven by various factors including interest margin contraction and rising costs [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 2025 operating revenue, PPOP, and net profit growth rates are 2.56%, -1.15%, and -2.22% respectively, with net profit growth declining compared to the previous year [1]. - Loan growth as of Q1 2025 is 8.32% year-on-year, with corporate loans increasing by 11.23% and personal loans remaining low [2][3]. - Total deposits grew by 6.24% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in deposit growth [2]. Group 2: Income Sources - Non-interest income saw a significant increase, with other non-interest income rising by 37.3% year-on-year, supported by foreign exchange gains [3]. - Fee and commission income grew by 2.1% year-on-year, indicating a return to positive growth in this segment [3]. Group 3: Asset Quality and Risk - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.25%, with a provision coverage ratio of 197.97% [3]. - The bank's net interest margin contracted to 1.29%, primarily due to pressure on asset yields [4]. Group 4: Cost and Taxation - Management expenses increased by 5.70% year-on-year, contributing to a rise in the cost-to-income ratio and effective tax rate [4]. - The effective tax rate increased by 3.46% year-on-year, further impacting overall performance [4]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The bank is expected to leverage its global and comprehensive advantages for sustainable growth, with a dynamic dividend yield of 4.22% for A shares and 5.52% for H shares [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Nanjing Bank [4] Core Views - Nanjing Bank has demonstrated robust growth in both loan and deposit scales, with loan growth rates of 14.55% for 2024 and 19.46% for Q1 2025, while deposits increased by 16.84% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [2][3] - The bank's net interest margin showed signs of recovery, with a reported net interest margin of 1.94% for 2024, and an expected increase of 6 basis points in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024 [2][3] - Asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.83% at the end of Q1 2025, and a high provision coverage ratio of 323.69% [2][3] - The cost-to-income ratio improved to 28.08% in 2024, down 2.39 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting effective cost management [2][3] Summary by Sections Performance Metrics - For 2024, Nanjing Bank reported revenue growth of 11.32%, PPOP growth of 15.02%, and net profit growth of 9.05%. In Q1 2025, revenue, PPOP, and net profit grew by 6.53%, 6.23%, and 7.06% respectively [1][8][14] - The bank's total assets reached 2,765.24 billion by Q1 2025, with total loans at 1,346.12 billion and total deposits at 1,691.82 billion [13][14] Non-Interest Income - Other non-interest income saw a decline of 10.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, primarily due to market adjustments affecting TPL [3][32] - Investment income increased by 36.5% year-on-year, helping to offset losses from fair value changes [3] Interest Margin and Asset Quality - The net interest margin for 2024 was reported at 1.94%, with expectations of a marginal recovery in Q1 2025 [2][3] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.83% in Q1 2025, with a significant improvement in personal loan quality [2][3] Capital and Shareholder Information - Nanjing Bank's total market capitalization is approximately 115.6 billion, with a dividend payout ratio of 31.74% for 2024, translating to a dividend yield of 5.45% based on the latest closing price [4][8]