Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in performance throughout 2025, with a focus on high dividend returns to shareholders [8] - The jewelry industry is currently facing significant sales pressure due to rising gold prices, which has impacted the company's performance [8] - The company has reported a significant increase in gross margin, attributed to rising gold prices and improved product mix [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 16,290 million, with a decline to 13,891 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to 15,225 million in 2025 [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from 1,316 million in 2023 to 1,010 million in 2024, with a slight recovery to 1,112 million in 2025 [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 0.92 in 2024, increasing to 1.01 in 2025 [1] Revenue and Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 20.80%, improving to 26.21% in Q1 2025 [8] - The net profit margin for 2024 is projected at 7.27%, with an increase to 9.43% in Q1 2025 [8] - The company aims for a cumulative cash distribution of at least 50% of its distributable profits over any three consecutive years [8] Channel Performance - Self-operated and e-commerce channels have shown relatively better performance, while the number of terminal stores has decreased [8] - In Q1 2025, self-operated offline revenue was 5.27 billion, e-commerce revenue was 5.34 billion, and franchise revenue was 5.84 billion, reflecting varying performance across product categories [8] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a sequential improvement in performance starting from Q2 2025, supported by a low base effect [8] - The forecast for net profit for 2025 has been adjusted to 11.1 billion, with a new projection for 2027 at 13.1 billion [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in performance throughout 2025, following a challenging 2024 due to pressures in the gold jewelry industry [8] - The company has a strong dividend policy, committing to distribute at least 50% of its cumulative distributable profits in cash over any three consecutive years [8] - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, the company anticipates a return to growth in 2025, with quarterly improvements expected starting from Q2 2025 [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 13.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.73% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, down 23.25% [8] - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be 2.673 billion yuan, reflecting a 47.3% decline year-on-year, with a net profit of 252 million yuan, down 26.1% [8] - The gross margin improved significantly, with 2024 gross margin at 20.80% (up 2.6 percentage points) and Q1 2025 gross margin at 26.21% (up 10.6 percentage points) [8] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 is 7.27%, slightly down from the previous year, while Q1 2025 shows an increase to 9.43% [8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow to 15.23 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 9.60%, and net profit is projected to reach 1.11 billion yuan, up 10.07% [1][8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.01 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.84 based on the latest diluted EPS [1][8] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 13.03 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 14.28 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.16 and a net asset value per share of 6.03 yuan [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the year 2024, with significant drops in Q4 and Q1 2025, primarily due to high gold prices suppressing consumer demand [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the year 2024, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 13.89 billion and 1.01 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 14.73% and 23.25% [1]. - In Q4 2024, revenue and net profit were 3.083 billion and 155 million yuan, with year-on-year decreases of 18.79% and 29.69% [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue and net profit were 2.673 billion and 252 million yuan, showing year-on-year declines of 47.28% and 26.12% [1]. - Gross profit for Q1 2025 was 701 million yuan, down 11.25% year-on-year [1]. Business Analysis - High gold prices have negatively impacted consumer demand, particularly for plain gold products, while embedded products showed slight growth and silver jewelry performed well [2]. - In Q1 2025, revenue from plain gold and embedded products was 128 million and 2.115 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of +0.15% and -53.15%, respectively [2]. - Revenue from silver jewelry and other auxiliary products was 150 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.5% [2]. - Franchise business revenue declined significantly due to low inventory replenishment willingness among customers, while self-operated and e-commerce segments benefited from improved product mix and profit margins [2]. - E-commerce revenue in Q1 2025 was 534 million yuan, down 6.71% year-on-year, while self-operated offline revenue was 527 million yuan, down 16.29% year-on-year [2]. - Franchise revenue in Q1 2025 was 1.584 billion yuan, down 58.63% year-on-year, with gold and embedded product revenues of 1.28 billion and 56 million yuan, down 63.31% and 9.24%, respectively [2]. Store Expansion and Brand Strategy - The company is focusing on store expansion and quality, with a net reduction of 98 stores in 2024, ending the year with 5,008 stores [3]. - By the end of Q1 2025, the total number of stores was 4,831, reflecting a net decrease of 177 stores since the beginning of the year [3]. - The company plans to promote sub-brands such as "Zhou Dasheng X National Treasure," "Zhuanzhuge," and "Zhou Dasheng Classic," with a focus on low investment and high return for "Zhuanzhuge" [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company expects net profit for 2025-2027 to be 1.085 billion, 1.232 billion, and 1.377 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 7.4%, 13.6%, and 11.8%, respectively [4]. - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 13.5, 11.9, and 10.6 times [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit margins for the first quarter of 2025, attributed to external economic uncertainties and cautious consumer behavior in the jewelry market [4][6][7]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 2.673 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 47.28% compared to the same period last year [6]. - Gross profit for the same period was 701 million yuan, down 11.25% year-on-year, with an overall gross margin of 26.21%, an increase of 10.64 percentage points from the previous year [6]. - Revenue breakdown by product category showed that embedded products generated 128 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.15%, while gold products saw a 53.15% decline to 2.115 billion yuan [6]. - Revenue from e-commerce was 534 million yuan, down 6.71%, with gold product sales decreasing by 17.61% [7]. Store Operations - As of the end of the reporting period, the company had 4,831 retail stores, a net decrease of 177 stores since the beginning of the year [7]. Profit Distribution Plan - The company proposed a profit distribution plan for 2024, with a total cash dividend of 1.031 billion yuan, representing 102.09% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [16]. - The plan includes a cash dividend of 6.5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 705.56 million yuan, with no stock dividends or capital reserve transfers [14][16]. Cash Management Strategy - The company approved a plan to use up to 1 billion yuan of idle funds for low-risk financial products to enhance fund utilization efficiency and returns [22][26]. - The investment will focus on low-risk products from reputable financial institutions, ensuring the safety of the principal and liquidity [26][28].