证券研究报告·公司点评报告·饰品 周大生（002867） 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评：持续高分 红，期待 25 年业绩逐季修复 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 16,290 | 13,891 | 15,225 | 16,739 | 18,379 | | 同比（%） | 46.52 | (14.73) | 9.60 | 9.95 | 9.79 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,316 | 1,010 | 1,112 | 1,216 | 1,307 | | 同比（%） | 20.67 | (23.25) | 10.07 | 9.33 | 7.48 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.20 | 0.92 | 1.01 | 1.11 | 1.19 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 10.85 | 14.14 | 12.84 | 11.75 | 10.93 | [Table_T ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in performance throughout 2025, following a challenging 2024 due to pressures in the gold jewelry industry [8] - The company has a strong dividend policy, committing to distribute at least 50% of its cumulative distributable profits in cash over any three consecutive years [8] - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, the company anticipates a return to growth in 2025, with quarterly improvements expected starting from Q2 2025 [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 13.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.73% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, down 23.25% [8] - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be 2.673 billion yuan, reflecting a 47.3% decline year-on-year, with a net profit of 252 million yuan, down 26.1% [8] - The gross margin improved significantly, with 2024 gross margin at 20.80% (up 2.6 percentage points) and Q1 2025 gross margin at 26.21% (up 10.6 percentage points) [8] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 is 7.27%, slightly down from the previous year, while Q1 2025 shows an increase to 9.43% [8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow to 15.23 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 9.60%, and net profit is projected to reach 1.11 billion yuan, up 10.07% [1][8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.01 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.84 based on the latest diluted EPS [1][8] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 13.03 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 14.28 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.16 and a net asset value per share of 6.03 yuan [5][6]

公司4.28 公告24 年收入/归母净利润138.9/10.1 亿元、同比-14.73%/-23.25%，其中Q4 收入/归母净利润 30.83/1.55亿元、同比-18.79%/-29.69%。 1Q25 营收/ 归母净利润26.73/2.52 亿元、同比-47.28%/-26.12%，毛利额7.01 亿元、同比-11.25%，业绩 承压主要系金价高企抑制黄金消费。 经营分析 金价高位攀升抑制消费需求、素金类承压，镶嵌类同比微增，银饰等其他辅品类表现亮眼。1Q25 素金/ 镶嵌类收入1.28/21.15 亿元、同比+0.15%/-53.15% ， 营收占比4.79%/79.11%；银饰等其他辅品类收入 1.5 亿元、同比+36.5%。 加盟业务受客户进货补充库存意愿较低影响收入端降幅较大，自营及电商受益产品结构优化利润率改善 明显。 自营：1Q25 电商收入5.34 亿元、同比-6.71%，其中镶嵌/黄金/ 辅品类收入0.38/3.27/1.45 亿元、同 比-8.17%/-17.61%/+31.59%；自营线下收入5.27 亿元、同比-16.29% ， 其中镶嵌/ 黄金收入0.33/4.85 亿 元、同比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit margins for the first quarter of 2025, attributed to external economic uncertainties and cautious consumer behavior in the jewelry market [4][6][7]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 2.673 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 47.28% compared to the same period last year [6]. - Gross profit for the same period was 701 million yuan, down 11.25% year-on-year, with an overall gross margin of 26.21%, an increase of 10.64 percentage points from the previous year [6]. - Revenue breakdown by product category showed that embedded products generated 128 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.15%, while gold products saw a 53.15% decline to 2.115 billion yuan [6]. - Revenue from e-commerce was 534 million yuan, down 6.71%, with gold product sales decreasing by 17.61% [7]. Store Operations - As of the end of the reporting period, the company had 4,831 retail stores, a net decrease of 177 stores since the beginning of the year [7]. Profit Distribution Plan - The company proposed a profit distribution plan for 2024, with a total cash dividend of 1.031 billion yuan, representing 102.09% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [16]. - The plan includes a cash dividend of 6.5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 705.56 million yuan, with no stock dividends or capital reserve transfers [14][16]. Cash Management Strategy - The company approved a plan to use up to 1 billion yuan of idle funds for low-risk financial products to enhance fund utilization efficiency and returns [22][26]. - The investment will focus on low-risk products from reputable financial institutions, ensuring the safety of the principal and liquidity [26][28].