Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the fiscal year 2025 was HKD 89.556 billion, a decrease of 17.75% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 5.916 billion, down 8.98% year-on-year. The decline in revenue was primarily due to high gold prices suppressing end demand and losses from gold lending contracts. However, after excluding the impact of fair value changes in gold lending, the operating profit was HKD 14.746 billion, reflecting a strong operational resilience with a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1][9]. - The retail value decline narrowed to 1.7% year-on-year in April-May, compared to a 11.6% decline in January-March. Notably, same-store sales of gold jewelry and products in mainland China (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) achieved a positive growth of 0.9% [1][9]. - The company has seen a significant increase in high-margin priced products, with revenue from priced gold jewelry products growing by 105.5% year-on-year to HKD 12.782 billion, accounting for 14.6% of total retail sales, an increase of 8.8 percentage points [2][11]. - The average monthly sales per store exceeded HKD 10 million, up from HKD 9 million the previous year, despite a net closure of 905 stores, bringing the total to 6,644 stores [2][11]. Financial Summary - The company's gross margin for fiscal year 2025 was 29.5%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a higher proportion of high-margin priced products and rising gold prices. The sales expense ratio was 9.7%, up 0.95 percentage points, influenced by declining revenue and increased marketing expenses [2][15]. - The company forecasts net profits for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 to be HKD 7.062 billion and HKD 8.104 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for fiscal year 2028 at HKD 9.049 billion, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18.3, 16, and 14.3 times [3][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 was impacted by fluctuations in gold prices, with a revenue of 13.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.73%, and a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, down 23.25% [1] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio in 2024, with a total cash dividend of 1.03 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend rate of 102.09% [2] - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to the franchise business and gold products, with a net reduction of 98 stores in 2024 [3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 138.91 billion yuan, with a net profit of 10.10 billion yuan, and a gross profit margin of 20.8% [1][6] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenues of 2.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.28%, with a net profit of 0.25 billion yuan, down 26.12% [1][3] - The company expects revenues of 142 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 1.12 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11% [4][6] Product and Channel Performance - Revenue from self-operated stores increased by 7.8%, while franchise revenue decreased by 23.3% in 2024 [3] - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows that gold jewelry sales decreased by 17%, while other jewelry categories saw mixed results [3] - The company had a total of 5,008 stores at the end of 2024, with a net closure of 98 stores during the year [3] Future Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth of 3% in 2025, with net profit expected to rise by 11% [4] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13, 11, and 9 times, respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in performance throughout 2025, following a challenging 2024 due to pressures in the gold jewelry industry [8] - The company has a strong dividend policy, committing to distribute at least 50% of its cumulative distributable profits in cash over any three consecutive years [8] - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, the company anticipates a return to growth in 2025, with quarterly improvements expected starting from Q2 2025 [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 13.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.73% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, down 23.25% [8] - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be 2.673 billion yuan, reflecting a 47.3% decline year-on-year, with a net profit of 252 million yuan, down 26.1% [8] - The gross margin improved significantly, with 2024 gross margin at 20.80% (up 2.6 percentage points) and Q1 2025 gross margin at 26.21% (up 10.6 percentage points) [8] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 is 7.27%, slightly down from the previous year, while Q1 2025 shows an increase to 9.43% [8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow to 15.23 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 9.60%, and net profit is projected to reach 1.11 billion yuan, up 10.07% [1][8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.01 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.84 based on the latest diluted EPS [1][8] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 13.03 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 14.28 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.16 and a net asset value per share of 6.03 yuan [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4][15] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year decline in overall retail value of 11.6% for the first quarter of 2025, with a 10.4% decline in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) and a 20.7% decline in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets. However, the decline in same-store sales has narrowed compared to the previous quarter [3][5] - The proportion of high-margin priced products has significantly increased, with the retail value of priced products in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) rising from 9.4% to 25.6% year-on-year, supporting the company's gross margin resilience [3][5] - The company continues to enhance store efficiency by closing 406 underperforming stores, with a total of 6,643 stores remaining at the end of the period. Additionally, five new image stores were opened in the Chinese market, achieving performance above the average of same-store sales [3][10] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Overall retail value decreased by 11.6% year-on-year, with a 10.4% decline in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) and a 20.7% decline in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets. Same-store sales in the Chinese market fell by 13.2%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [3][5] Product Sales Structure - The share of high-margin priced products has increased, with the retail value of priced products in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) rising from 9.4% to 25.6% year-on-year. The sales of the signature CTF Fortune and CTF Palace series reached approximately HKD 4 billion each for the fiscal year 2025 [3][5] Store Management - The company closed 406 underperforming stores, including 397 from the main CTF brand, resulting in a total of 6,643 stores at the end of the period. The company also opened five new image stores in the Chinese market, which performed better than the average same-store sales in the initial months [3][10] Financial Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast for the fiscal years 2025-2027 at HKD 52.51 billion, HKD 61.54 billion, and HKD 68.84 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.3, 15.6, and 14 times [4][15]