Core Insights - The tire industry's upstream raw material prices showed significant year-on-year declines in July 2025, with specific materials experiencing varied price movements [1][2]. Raw Material Price Summary - In July 2025, the average price of butadiene was 9116.30 CNY/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 29.87% [1][2]. - The average price of natural rubber was 1770.65 USD/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.96% and a year-on-year increase of 4.46% [1][2]. - The average price of styrene-butadiene rubber was 11964.13 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.77% but a year-on-year decrease of 21.65% [1][2]. - The average price of carbon black was 6267.74 CNY/ton, showing a month-on-month decrease of 2.30% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.25% [1][2]. - The average price of nylon tire cord fabric was 17971.40 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.33% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.31% [1][2]. Natural Rubber Supply and Demand - In June 2025, the production of natural rubber in ANRPC member countries was 883,700 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 5.37% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.94% [3]. - China's natural rubber production in June was 103,200 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 7.05% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.37% [3]. - China's natural rubber consumption in June was 619,500 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.45% and a year-on-year increase of 3.80% [3]. - The import volume of natural rubber in China for June was 436,300 tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 1.24% but a year-on-year increase of 29.43% [3]. Shipping Index Trends - The Baltic Sea freight index (FBX) averaged 2531.25 points in July 2025, indicating a month-on-month decrease of 25.46% and a year-on-year decrease of 50.19% [4]. - The CCFI index for the East Coast of the U.S. was 1247.30, showing a year-on-year decrease of 30.43% and a month-on-month decrease of 7.31% [4]. - The CCFI index for the West Coast of the U.S. was 983.60, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 40.68% and a month-on-month decrease of 14.44% [4].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for the tire industry, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [70]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the prices of most raw materials have continued to decline, which is beneficial for tire manufacturers' profit recovery. With the weather warming up, there is an expectation for improved market sales, coupled with a slight increase in foreign trade orders from Europe and the United States [65]. - Long-term, leading tire companies in China are expected to leverage their global presence and management capabilities to mitigate external risks and compete internationally. Companies to watch include Zhongce Rubber, Sailun Tire, General Tire, Shengtai Group, and Linglong Tire [65]. Summary by Sections Raw Material Prices - In May 2025, the average price of butadiene was 9725.00 CNY/ton, up 4.47% month-on-month but down 14.37% year-on-year. Natural rubber averaged 1773.42 USD/ton, up 0.04% month-on-month and up 4.27% year-on-year. Styrene-butadiene rubber was 12263.64 CNY/ton, down 1.05% month-on-month and down 9.03% year-on-year. Carbon black averaged 6462.90 CNY/ton, down 7.50% month-on-month and down 27.79% year-on-year. Nylon cord fabric was 18552.60 CNY/ton, down 4.86% month-on-month and down 17.54% year-on-year [5][6]. Production and Demand - In April 2025, China's tire production reached 102 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.03%, marking the highest level for the same period in five years, although it decreased by 5.07% month-on-month. In May 2025, the production of all-steel tires was 11.82 million units, down 9.63% month-on-month and down 1.66% year-on-year. The production of semi-steel tires was 54.15 million units, down 2.24% month-on-month and down 4.02% year-on-year [21][25]. Export Trends - In April 2025, China exported 57.39 million new pneumatic tires, a month-on-month decrease of 7.87% but a year-on-year increase of 5.42%. The export of passenger car tires was 27.39 million units, down 10.94% month-on-month and down 2.35% year-on-year [30]. Market Conditions - The logistics industry index in China for May 2025 was 50.60%, reflecting a slight decline of 0.50 percentage points. The public logistics price index was 105.03 points, indicating a month-on-month increase of 0.06 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 2.07 percentage points [43].

东海证券近日发布轮胎行业月报：2025年4月丁二烯均价9308.70元/吨，环比下降 15.34%，同比下降19.14%；天然橡胶均价1772.73美元/吨，环比下降14.17%，同比上涨 8.04%；丁苯橡胶均价12393.18元/吨，环比下降11.78%，同比下降6.90%；炭黑均价6986.67 元/吨，环比下降9.57%，同比减少21.94%；锦纶帘子布均价19500.00元/吨，环比持平，同比 减少12.61%。 4月轮胎上游原材料价格：2025年4月丁二烯均价9308.70元/吨，环比下降15.34%，同比 下降19.14%；天然橡胶均价1772.73美元/吨，环比下降14.17%，同比上涨8.04%；丁苯橡胶 均价12393.18元/吨，环比下降11.78%，同比下降6.90%；炭黑均价6986.67元/吨，环比下降 9.57%，同比减少21.94%；锦纶帘子布均价19500.00元/吨，环比持平，同比减少12.61%。 天然橡胶3月整体供应环比减少 2025年3月，ANRPC成员国天然橡胶产量为50.63万吨，环比减少30.49%，同比增长 3.07%； 3月我国天然橡胶消费量为62.21万吨 ...