东海证券近日发布轮胎行业月报： 7月轮胎上游原材料价格：2025年7月丁二烯均价 9116.30元/吨，环比下降1.14%，同比下降29.87%；天然橡胶均价1770.65美元/吨，环比上涨 3.96%，同比上涨4.46%；丁苯橡胶均价11964.13元/吨，环比上涨0.77%，同比下降21.65%； 炭黑均价6267.74元/吨，环比下降2.30%，同比减少20.25%；锦纶帘子布均价17971.40元/ 吨，环比下降2.33%，同比减少19.31%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 2025年7月波罗的海货运指数(FBX)均值为2531.25点，环比减少25.46%，同比减少 50.19%。 2025年7月CCFI（美东航线）指数为1247.30，同比减少30.43%，环比减少7.31%；CCFI （美西航线）指数为983.60，同比减少40.68%，环比减少14.44%。（东海证券 吴骏燕,谢建 斌） 2025年6月，ANRPC成员国天然橡胶产量为88.37万吨，环比增长5.37%，同比减少 5.94%； 6月我国天然橡胶产量为10.32万吨，环比增长7.05%，同比减少2.37%； 6月我国天然橡胶消费量为61 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a mixed economic outlook, with some sectors showing recovery while others face declines, particularly in exports and commodity prices [2][4][30]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has shown a slight decline, standing at 5.03% as of May 18, down from 5.15% on May 11 [4][9]. - Infrastructure remains a key driver of economic activity, particularly in asphalt construction rates, which increased to an average of 30.58% from 26.95% [10]. - The cement shipment rate has rebounded to 41.5%, up 2.2 percentage points from the previous week [17]. Group 2: Demand and Consumption - Land premium rates have significantly decreased, with a current rate of 1.37% compared to an average of 5.5% over the previous three weeks [5][14]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have shown a slight decline, with a growth rate of 12.4% as of May 18, down from 14.5% in April [13]. - The average daily subway ridership in 27 cities remained stable at 78.88 million, consistent with last year [13]. Group 3: Trade and Exports - U.S. imports from China have sharply declined, with a year-on-year drop of 8% in the first 21 days of May, compared to a 9.9% increase in April [5][23]. - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has decreased by 37.5% year-on-year as of May 24 [5][23]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has shown a year-on-year decline of 26.1% [21]. Group 4: Commodity Prices - Gold prices have rebounded significantly, closing at $3,351 per ounce, a 5% increase [3][30]. - Prices for coal and real estate-related commodities have weakened, with Shanxi thermal coal prices down 0.5% and rebar prices down 1.3% [6][30]. - The overall commodity price index (BPI) has decreased by 0.3% domestically, while the CRB index has increased by 0.2% internationally [30][36]. Group 5: Debt and Financing - New special bond issuance has accelerated compared to last year, with a total of 1.68 trillion yuan issued as of May 23, representing 38.3% of the annual target [6][37]. - The issuance of general and special government bonds has also outpaced last year's progress, with net financing rates of 39.4% and 42.1%, respectively [6][37].