Core Insights - The tire industry's upstream raw material prices showed significant year-on-year declines in July 2025, with specific materials experiencing varied price movements [1][2]. Raw Material Price Summary - In July 2025, the average price of butadiene was 9116.30 CNY/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 29.87% [1][2]. - The average price of natural rubber was 1770.65 USD/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.96% and a year-on-year increase of 4.46% [1][2]. - The average price of styrene-butadiene rubber was 11964.13 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.77% but a year-on-year decrease of 21.65% [1][2]. - The average price of carbon black was 6267.74 CNY/ton, showing a month-on-month decrease of 2.30% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.25% [1][2]. - The average price of nylon tire cord fabric was 17971.40 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.33% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.31% [1][2]. Natural Rubber Supply and Demand - In June 2025, the production of natural rubber in ANRPC member countries was 883,700 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 5.37% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.94% [3]. - China's natural rubber production in June was 103,200 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 7.05% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.37% [3]. - China's natural rubber consumption in June was 619,500 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.45% and a year-on-year increase of 3.80% [3]. - The import volume of natural rubber in China for June was 436,300 tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 1.24% but a year-on-year increase of 29.43% [3]. Shipping Index Trends - The Baltic Sea freight index (FBX) averaged 2531.25 points in July 2025, indicating a month-on-month decrease of 25.46% and a year-on-year decrease of 50.19% [4]. - The CCFI index for the East Coast of the U.S. was 1247.30, showing a year-on-year decrease of 30.43% and a month-on-month decrease of 7.31% [4]. - The CCFI index for the West Coast of the U.S. was 983.60, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 40.68% and a month-on-month decrease of 14.44% [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a mixed economic outlook, with some sectors showing recovery while others face declines, particularly in exports and commodity prices [2][4][30]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has shown a slight decline, standing at 5.03% as of May 18, down from 5.15% on May 11 [4][9]. - Infrastructure remains a key driver of economic activity, particularly in asphalt construction rates, which increased to an average of 30.58% from 26.95% [10]. - The cement shipment rate has rebounded to 41.5%, up 2.2 percentage points from the previous week [17]. Group 2: Demand and Consumption - Land premium rates have significantly decreased, with a current rate of 1.37% compared to an average of 5.5% over the previous three weeks [5][14]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have shown a slight decline, with a growth rate of 12.4% as of May 18, down from 14.5% in April [13]. - The average daily subway ridership in 27 cities remained stable at 78.88 million, consistent with last year [13]. Group 3: Trade and Exports - U.S. imports from China have sharply declined, with a year-on-year drop of 8% in the first 21 days of May, compared to a 9.9% increase in April [5][23]. - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has decreased by 37.5% year-on-year as of May 24 [5][23]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has shown a year-on-year decline of 26.1% [21]. Group 4: Commodity Prices - Gold prices have rebounded significantly, closing at $3,351 per ounce, a 5% increase [3][30]. - Prices for coal and real estate-related commodities have weakened, with Shanxi thermal coal prices down 0.5% and rebar prices down 1.3% [6][30]. - The overall commodity price index (BPI) has decreased by 0.3% domestically, while the CRB index has increased by 0.2% internationally [30][36]. Group 5: Debt and Financing - New special bond issuance has accelerated compared to last year, with a total of 1.68 trillion yuan issued as of May 23, representing 38.3% of the annual target [6][37]. - The issuance of general and special government bonds has also outpaced last year's progress, with net financing rates of 39.4% and 42.1%, respectively [6][37].