证券研究报告|行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 30 日 [Table_Title] C919 大飞机：万亿赛道，拐点到来 [Table_Title2] 国防军工 行业评级:推荐 [Table_Summary] 分析与判断: ► 商发层面：国产长江系列发动机进入取证关键周期，大飞机板块迎最大拐点 长江发动机进入研制关键阶段，航发集团重点发力商用动力。据中国航发官微，1 月 25 日至 26 日，中国 航发 2026 年工作会议在京召开，系统总结集团"十四五"期间和 2025 年工作成就，全面部署"十五五"规划 和 2026 年重点任务。中国航发商发副总经理党委委员邱超表示，2026 年长江发动机研制已进入关键阶段，他 将把工作会精神转化为履职尽责的实际行动以战时机制、战时作风、战时纪律、战时政策确保任务目标务期必 成，坚决打赢型号研制攻坚战。同时，会议提到，航发集团"十五五"及中长期发展的主要任务包括，打造 "商用动力、通航动力、民用燃机、系统机载、先进材料与制造服务业"五大支柱产业。我们认为，以 CJ- 1000 为代表的商用航空发动机测试进度、装机试飞和适航取证已经到了关键阶段 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the commercial aviation engine industry, indicating a positive investment outlook [1]. Core Insights - The commercial aviation engine is referred to as the "crown jewel" of modern industry, with engines accounting for approximately 25% of the total value of commercial aircraft [4][20]. - The report emphasizes the significant growth potential of China's commercial aviation engine market, projecting a total market size exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan over the next 20 years, with an annualized scale of over 130 billion yuan [5][11]. - The commercial aviation engine supply chain is characterized by high barriers to entry, with a global oligopoly dominated by a few major manufacturers [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report introduces the commercial aviation engine as a critical component of modern industrial capabilities, highlighting China's reliance on imported engines and the low marketization rate of domestic engines, which is less than 1% [4][21]. Commercial Aviation Engine Analysis - The structure of commercial aviation engines includes key components such as fans, compressors, combustion chambers, and turbines, with the hot section being the most critical and challenging to manufacture [26][33]. - The aftermarket services for engines can generate revenues up to four times the initial sale price, indicating a lucrative long-term profit potential [4][18]. Business Model Exploration - The primary manufacturers operate under a "super blade + long-term blade" profit model, leveraging significant discounts on initial sales to capture market share while securing long-term service contracts for profitability [5][6]. - Suppliers in the engine manufacturing chain are positioned as "hidden champions," benefiting from high entry barriers and the need for extensive certification processes [5][6]. Global Valuation Perspective - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for major engine manufacturers is reported at 30.2 times, with leading companies like GE Aerospace at 42 times, indicating robust valuation metrics driven by order backlog and aftermarket growth [5][6]. - Core suppliers exhibit an even higher average PE of 68.5 times, reflecting their scarcity and stable demand characteristics [5][6]. China's Commercial Aviation Engine Market - The report highlights the Longjiang series of engines as a key initiative to reduce reliance on foreign technology and enhance domestic capabilities [5][11]. - The projected growth of the Chinese aviation market is supported by forecasts indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4% from 2024 to 2044, with expectations of 10,175 aircraft by 2044 [5][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three key areas within the domestic aviation engine supply chain: core component suppliers, high-temperature alloy manufacturers, and raw material suppliers [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes that the Changjiang series engines are developed to meet the international standards of the fifth generation of civil aviation engines, representing advanced international levels in civil aviation engine technology [1] Group 1: Company Initiatives - The company has designated the development of the Changjiang engine as a key project for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - Various subsidiaries are enhancing communication with China Aviation Engine Corporation to ensure effective collaboration and responsibility at all levels [1] - The company is focusing its resources on the timely arrangement of product trials and testing to ensure the completion of the development tasks [1]

Group 1 - The company,航发动力, is responsible for the manufacturing of certain units and components of the Changjiang series engines [1] - The company is currently progressing with the certification work according to the project plan set by the main contractor [1]

Summary of Conference Call for Yingliu Technology Industry Overview - The demand for gas turbines, optical modules, and PCBs is driven by large-scale investments in overseas data centers, positively impacting related US stock sectors [2][4] - The domestic military aviation engine sector is expected to see growth in new model deliveries despite 2025 being a small year for military products [2][6] - The domestic civil aviation engine market exceeds 100 billion RMB, currently reliant on imports, with domestic engines like the Changjiang series maturing [2][6][7] - The global market for civil aviation engines is highly concentrated, dominated by GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney, and Rolls-Royce, with high demand but limited delivery capacity [2][7] Company Insights - Yingliu Technology has diversified its operations across military engines, gas turbines, oil and gas, mining, and nuclear power, establishing a platform development model [3][9] - The company’s order backlog increased from 150-200 million RMB at the end of Q3 last year to 1.2 billion RMB by the end of Q1 this year, indicating strong demand [3][9] - Recent long-term contracts with Siemens and other overseas clients extend production schedules to 2028-2029, expected to significantly boost future performance [3][10] Financial Performance - The company has maintained high R&D investment levels since 2017, averaging 300-400 million RMB annually, with capital expenditures rapidly increasing to 4.5 billion RMB [3][11] - The nuclear power business has shown rapid growth, with expectations of significant order releases in the next two to three years, maintaining a growth rate of around 20% [3][12][14] Future Prospects - The company is entering a harvest period, with a strong order book and expected profitability improvements in Q3 [3][13] - The low-altitude sector is being fully developed, with large orders signed in the first half of the year, anticipated to turn from losses to profits in the coming years [3][15] - The nuclear fusion business is also being explored, with collaborations for materials and equipment development, providing additional growth potential [3][14] Key Contracts and Collaborations - Significant contracts signed with major players like Siemens and GEV reflect the increasing demand for gas turbines and the need for domestic companies to support main engine manufacturers [3][8][10] Conclusion - Yingliu Technology is well-positioned for growth with a diversified portfolio, strong order backlog, and strategic investments in R&D and capital expenditures, indicating a positive outlook for future performance across various sectors [3][13][15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The appointment of Zhang Yujin as the chairman of AVIC Engine Group indicates a potential return to high growth for the engine sector, with a broad market outlook [3][7] - The core technologies in the aviation engine industry are maturing, and the pressure on profitability from high investment in model development is expected to ease [7] - The maintenance, commercial aviation, and gas turbine sectors are opening up broader development opportunities for the aviation engine segment [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The aviation engine industry has made significant progress over the past five years, achieving independence from imported engines for military applications and actively participating in the development of domestic commercial engines [7] Market Dynamics - The demand for weaponry and equipment is expected to expand due to ongoing international tensions, which will benefit the military trade market [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific segments within the aviation engine industry, including maintenance, commercial aviation, and gas turbines, as they present substantial growth potential [3][7] - Listed companies under AVIC Group include AVIC Power (600893), AVIC Control (000738), AVIC Technology (600391), and AVIC Materials (688563) [7]