Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of China's export tax - rebate policy will likely lead to a phased rush of container shipments before April 1, 2026, which is favorable for near - month contracts and unfavorable for far - month contracts, and the market may show a positive arbitrage logic [4][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Event Background - On January 8, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced an adjustment to the export tax - rebate policy for products such as photovoltaics. Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled; for battery products, the VAT export tax - rebate rate will be reduced from 9% to 6% from April 1, 2026, and cancelled from January 1, 2027 [2] Impact Assessment - **Product Scope**: Affected products include photovoltaic and battery - related products, as well as chemical raw materials and products, plastic PVC and polymers, kitchenware, ceramic products, silicone, cement, glass products, etc [3][9] - **Export Situation**: From January to November, China's photovoltaic module export volume was 227GW, with 81.7GW exported to Europe, accounting for 35.96%. China's battery export volume was 98.7GW, a year - on - year increase of 84.8%, and nearly 90% was exported to non - European and American countries [4][9] - **Shipping Impact**: Most affected products are transported by containers. Routes to Europe, the Middle East, South America, and India - Pakistan may be more affected. Before April 1, a phased rush of container shipments is expected, which is favorable for near - month contracts and unfavorable for far - month contracts [4][20]

Core Insights - The significant increase in the outbound tax refund business in Henan province indicates a strong recovery in the inbound tourism market and the effective release of benefits from the optimized tax refund policy [2] Group 1: Tax Refund Growth - In the first 11 months of this year, the number of outbound travelers in Henan who received tax refunds increased by 8.7 times year-on-year, with the actual tax refund amount growing by 10.6 times [1] - The "immediate refund" service allows foreign travelers to receive tax refunds at the point of purchase, enhancing their shopping experience [1] Group 2: Policy Optimization and Consumer Experience - The optimization of the outbound tax refund policy has significantly improved shopping convenience and consumer experience for foreign travelers, activating potential demand in the inbound consumption market [2] - Henan province has announced 41 tax refund stores across popular tourist destinations, aiming to support international brands and local products to enhance the shopping experience for foreign consumers [2] Group 3: Future Initiatives - The provincial tax authorities will continue to implement efficient tax refund processes for foreign travelers, promoting more stores to adopt the "immediate refund" service and establishing centralized refund points in popular shopping areas [2]