| 8月18日 | 8月15日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）2180.17点，较上期下跌2.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1052.5点，较上期下跌0.1% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1106.29点，较上期上涨2.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1188.7点，较上期下跌5.5% | | 8月15日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1042.91点，较上期下跌5.9% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1460.19 点，较上期下跌29.49点 | 8月15日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1820USD/TEU, 较上期下跌7.2% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1193.34点，较上期下跌0.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1759USD/FEU，较上期下跌3.5% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（欧洲航线）1790.47点，较上期下跌0.5% | | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（美西航线 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is challenging, and it's recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2] - Due to the complex situation, short - term trading strategies should be cautious, and long - term strategies should wait for the market to stabilize [3] 3. Summary by Related Content SCFIS, NCFI, and Other Shipping Indexes - On August 1st, compared with the previous period, the NCFI (composite index) was 1087.66 points, down 2.06%; the SCFIS (European route) was 2400.50 points, down 0.9%; the NCFI (European route) was 1372.67 points, down 3.53%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1301.81 points, up 2.8%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% [1] - Also on August 1st, the SCFI was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points; the CCFI (composite index) was 1232.29 points, down 2.3%; the SCFI European route price was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86%; the CCFI (European route) was 1789.50 points, up 0.1%; the SCFI US West route was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23%; the CCFI (US West route) was 876.57 points, down 0.5% [1] Economic Data of Different Regions - The Eurozone's July manufacturing PMI initial value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the service industry PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7; the composite PMI initial value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The July SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [1] - In July, the US manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7), the service industry PMI initial value was 55.2 (expected 53), and the composite PMI initial value was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [2] - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] Market and Policy Influences - Trump's tariff hikes on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, have increased the difficulty of the game in the shipping market. Some shipping companies have announced price increases, and the Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1st [2] - The spot market has set a price range and made small price increases to test the market, leading to a small rebound in the market [2] Trading and Contract Information - On August 1st, the main contract 2510 closed at 1424.0, with a decline of 0.29%, a trading volume of 35,700 lots, and an open interest of 52,400 lots, an increase of 558 lots from the previous day [2] - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take partial profits from the long positions in the 2510 contract below 1300 and short the EC2512 contract lightly and take profits. Set stop - losses [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Amid international turmoil, the market shows a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [3] - Long - term strategy: It's recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [3] - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, and the company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all 2508 - 2606 contracts is 100 lots [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS has risen significantly, fulfilling positive expectations. Market sentiment is generally pessimistic, and risk - takers can consider lightly shorting at high prices [2]. - Attention should be paid to the results of the Sino - US meeting. Without more positive news, the market is more likely to fall than rise. Key factors to watch include the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under tariff policy easing, and the final ruling result [4]. - Amid the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, although SCFIS has risen sharply, the positive sentiment has mostly subsided. The market is in a range - bound oscillation, and future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index Changes - On June 9, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1622.81 points, up 29.5% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 2185.08 points, up 27.2% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 2240.35 points, up 167.64 points from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 1667 USD/TEU, up 5.04% from the previous period; the US - West route price was 5606 USD/FEU, up 8.39% from the previous period [3]. - On June 6, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1669.44 points, down 0.41% from the previous period; the European route was 1123.64 points, up 5.25% from the previous period; the US - West route was 3259.14 points, down 9.10% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1154.98 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the European route was 1397.02 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the US - West route was 1034.94 points, up 9.6% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49); services PMI preliminary value was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1); composite PMI was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4). The May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5) [3]. - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [3]. - US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3, a three - month high (expected 49.9, previous 50.2); services PMI preliminary value was 52.3, a two - month high (expected 51, previous 50.8); composite PMI preliminary value was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6) [3]. Market and Policy Information - As of June 9, the main contract 2508 closed at 2065.6, down 2.55%, with a trading volume of 55,700 lots and an open interest of 44,100 lots, a decrease of 2100 lots from the previous day [4]. - The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism is being held in the UK, and the market is in a wait - and - see mode [4]. - Short - term strategy: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence; for the 2508 contract, it is recommended to lightly short when it rebounds above 2250 and set a stop - loss [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern. Attention should be paid to the court's ruling, and currently, a positive arbitrage structure is mainly adopted [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. - The daily price limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 16%, the company's margin for these contracts has been adjusted to 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [5]. Trade Data - In the first five months of this year, ASEAN was China's largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 3.02 trillion yuan, up 9.1%, accounting for 16.8% of China's total foreign trade. Exports to ASEAN were 1.9 trillion yuan, up 13.5%; imports from ASEAN were 1.12 trillion yuan, up 2.3% [6][8]. - The EU was China's second - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 2.3 trillion yuan, up 2.9%, accounting for 12.8%. Exports to the EU were 1.57 trillion yuan, up 7.7%; imports from the EU were 7283.3 billion yuan, down 6.1% [6]. - The US was China's third - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 1.72 trillion yuan, down 8.1%, accounting for 9.6%. Exports to the US were 1.27 trillion yuan, down 8.7%; imports from the US were 4475.1 billion yuan, down 6.3% [6]. - China's total imports and exports to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative were 9.24 trillion yuan, up 4.2%. Exports were 5.34 trillion yuan, up 10.4%; imports were 3.9 trillion yuan, down 3.2% [6].