罗志恒、马家进、孙文婷（罗志恒系粤开证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事） 摘要 当地时间10月10日，特朗普在社交媒体发文，将对中国加征100%的关税，并对"所有关键软件"实施出口管制，于11月1日生效。尽管这被视为中美新一轮 关税谈判前的极限施压手段，但若100%关税最终落地，将对中美双边贸易乃至全球贸易体系造成显著冲击，并进一步重塑美国的贸易格局。 2025年以来，特朗普持续加码"对等关税""232关税"等多重关税措施，使得美国关税收入和平均关税税率均大幅跃升，并引发进出口贸易格局调整。本文 系统梳理了2025年上半年美国关税收入变化、实际关税税率走势及进出口贸易结构演变，总结出以下主要特征： 第一，美国关税收入快速增长，超越消费税跃居联邦财政收入的第四大税种，仅次于个人所得税、社会保障税和企业所得税。 第二，关税收入取决于关税税率和进口规模，美国关税收入快速增长主要受关税税率大幅提高驱动。美国实际平均关税税率由1月的2.2%升至6月的 8.9%，税率涨幅呈现"2、3月温和、4月跃升、5、6月放缓"的走势。 第三，美国对主要贸易伙伴征收的实际平均关税税率普遍上升，但差异显著。2025年6月，美国对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has announced the inclusion of 407 categories of steel and aluminum derivative products in the tariff list, with a tax rate of 50%, raising concerns among businesses about increased costs and profit margins [1] Group 1: Tariff Announcement - The announcement expands the coverage of steel and aluminum tariffs, affecting a wide range of products including wind turbine components, mobile cranes, bulldozers, heavy equipment, rail vehicles, compressors, and pumps [1] - The increase in tariffs from 25% to 50% on steel and aluminum products imported from all trade partners except the UK will take effect from June 4 [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - The Vice Minister of Commerce for Industrial and Security, Jeffrey Kessler, indicated that this move signifies a strategic shift in the U.S. regulatory approach to steel and aluminum derivative products [1] - According to Jason Miller, a professor at Michigan State University, the current steel and aluminum tariffs impact at least $320 billion worth of imported goods based on the projected total import value for 2024 [1] - The expansion of the steel and aluminum tariff list is expected to further increase inflationary pressures on rising prices [1] Group 3: Industry Reactions - Brian Baldwin, Vice President of Customs Affairs at Swiss-based DSV International Transport, expressed that the 50% tariff will have a severe impact, indicating that this issue transcends mere tariffs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has announced the inclusion of 407 categories of steel and aluminum derivative products in the tariff list, with a tax rate of 50%, raising concerns among businesses about increased costs and profit margins [1] Group 1: Tariff Details - The newly expanded tariff list includes a wide range of products such as wind turbine components, mobile cranes, bulldozers, heavy equipment, rail vehicles, compressors, and pumps [1] - The increase in tariffs from 25% to 50% on steel and aluminum products imported from all trade partners except the UK has been in effect since June 4 [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - The expansion of the steel and aluminum tariff list is estimated to affect imports worth at least $320 billion based on the total import value for 2024 [1] - The increased tariffs are expected to further elevate inflationary pressures due to rising prices [1] Group 3: Industry Reactions - Brian Baldwin, Vice President of Customs Affairs at DSV International Transport, stated that the 50% tariff will have a significant impact, indicating a strategic shift in U.S. regulatory policy regarding steel and aluminum derivatives [1] - Jason Miller, a professor at Michigan State University, highlighted the broader implications of the tariff changes on the economy and industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has expanded its steel and aluminum tariffs to include 407 categories of derived products, imposing a 50% tax rate, which is expected to significantly impact costs and profit margins for various industries [1][1][1] Group 1: Tariff Expansion Details - The U.S. Department of Commerce has announced the inclusion of 407 categories of steel and aluminum derived products in the tariff list, with a tax rate set at 50% [1] - The expanded list covers a wide range of products, including wind turbines and components, mobile cranes, bulldozers, heavy equipment, rail vehicles, compressors, and pumps [1][1] Group 2: Economic Impact - According to estimates, the expanded steel and aluminum tariffs will affect imports worth at least $320 billion, based on the projected total import value for 2024 [1] - The increase in tariffs is expected to further elevate inflationary pressures by contributing to rising prices [1] Group 3: Industry Reactions - Companies are concerned that the 50% tariff will lead to increased costs and significantly impact profit margins [1] - Industry experts view this move not just as a tariff issue but as a strategic shift in the U.S. regulatory approach towards steel and aluminum derived products [1][1]