➢ 价格：本周钢材价格下跌。截至 8 月 22 日，上海 20mm HRB400 材质螺 纹价格为 3270 元/吨，较上周降 30 元/吨。高线 8.0mm 价格为 3420 元/吨， 较上周降 50 元/吨。热轧 3.0mm 价格为 3420 元/吨，较上周降 40 元/吨。冷轧 1.0mm 价格为 3830 元/吨，较上周降 50 元/吨。普中板 20mm 价格为 3470 元 /吨，较上周降 50 元/吨。本周原材料中，国产矿市场价格稳中有升，进口矿市 场价格稳中有跌，废钢价格下跌。 ➢ 利润：本周钢材利润下降。长流程方面，我们测算本周行业螺纹钢、热轧和 冷轧毛利分别环比前一周变化-58 元/吨，-50 元/吨和-42 元/吨。短流程方面， 本周电炉钢毛利环比前一周变化-34 元/吨。 钢铁周报 20250824 美国钢铝关税扩围，钢价有所承压 2025 年 08 月 24 日 ➢ 产量与库存：截至 8 月 22 日，五大钢材产量上升，总库存环比上升。产量 方面，本周五大钢材品种产量 878 万吨，环比升 6.43 万吨，其中建筑钢材产量 周环比减 3.71 万吨，板材产量周环比升 10.14 万吨， ...

大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20690，基差100，升水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周增7093吨至 120653吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向下运行；中性。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，美再扩大钢铝关税，多空交织，铝价震荡运行. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Maanshan Iron & Steel Company (马钢股份) on August 20 was 3.80 yuan, down 0.01 yuan or 0.26% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 817,301 hands and a transaction amount of 310 million yuan [1] - Maanshan Iron & Steel operates in the steel industry, primarily engaged in the production and sales of steel products, which are widely used in construction and machinery manufacturing [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on August 15 that 407 categories of steel and aluminum derivative products would be included in the tariff list, imposing a 50% tariff on these products; however, data shows that in the first half of 2025, China's steel exports to the U.S. will only account for 0.7% of total exports, indicating limited direct impact on domestic steel companies [1] Group 2 - Maanshan Iron & Steel recently indicated in its performance forecast that it has reduced its losses in the first half of the year [1] - On August 20, the net outflow of main funds for Maanshan Iron & Steel was 13.8779 million yuan, accounting for 0.06% of its circulating market value; over the past five days, the net outflow of main funds totaled 161.9163 million yuan, representing 0.71% of its circulating market value [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has unexpectedly expanded the 50% steel and aluminum tariffs to 407 additional product categories, impacting various industries and raising concerns among importers and businesses [3][4][6]. Group 1: Tariff Expansion Details - The recent tariff increase is part of a series of measures initiated by the Trump administration to strengthen the U.S. steel and aluminum industries, with tariffs raised from 25% to 50% [5][12]. - The newly affected products include wind turbine components, heavy machinery, furniture, and various consumer goods, with an estimated 673 steel and 188 aluminum derivative products now subject to tariffs [6][8]. - The rapid implementation of these tariffs has left many importers unprepared, leading to significant operational challenges [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The expansion of tariffs is expected to affect approximately $328 billion worth of imports, significantly increasing inflationary pressures on prices already rising due to previous tariff measures [12][13]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicates a 0.9% month-on-month increase in July, the largest in three years, suggesting that the tariffs will exacerbate existing inflation trends [13]. - Industries such as construction, automotive, and packaging are projected to face the most severe impacts, with the cost of manufacturing a vehicle potentially increasing by over $2,000 due to the tariffs [13][14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Gold main contract fluctuated during the session, while the Shanghai Silver contract weakened significantly. The US Department of Commerce's tariff - increasing policy has caused the precious metals market to experience a correction due to the spill - over effect of steel and aluminum tariffs. However, the tariffs have no substantial impact on silver, and the probability of silver being additionally taxed is extremely low. The current correction may be mainly driven by market sentiment. The S&P's confirmation of the US sovereign credit rating has supported the US dollar, and the dollar index has continued its rebound from a low level. The market is currently focusing on the cease - fire expectation between Russia and Ukraine and the expected trading around the Fed's interest - rate cuts at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. If Fed Chairman Powell further releases hawkish signals, the dollar index and US Treasury yields may continue to rebound, putting pressure on the upward movement of gold prices. In the short term, if there is no significant progress in the geopolitical situation, the precious metals market is expected to continue to trade within a range, and mid - term interest - rate cuts provide strong support for the bottom of gold prices. The negotiation between Russia and the US may affect the gold price. If the negotiation makes substantial progress, it may further relieve the downward pressure on the gold price; if it fails to meet expectations, it may increase the demand for safe - haven buying. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards gold in the short term, and pay attention to short - term rebound trading opportunities for silver as it approaches the oversold range. The recommended trading range for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract is 9000 - 9100 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 772.68 yuan/gram, down 2.38 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 9042 yuan/kilogram, down 145 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 191,474 lots, up 39 lots; the main - contract positions of Shanghai Silver were 318,678 lots, down 23,822 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 160,754 lots, down 1365 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract were 114,342 lots, down 5142 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse - receipt quantity of gold was 36,582 kilograms, up 249 kilograms; the warehouse - receipt quantity of silver was 1,140,199 kilograms, down 9247 kilograms [2]. 3.2现货市场 - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 768.7 yuan/gram, down 4.2 yuan, and the basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 3.98 yuan/gram. The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's silver spot price was 9026 yuan/kilogram, down 128 yuan, and the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 16 yuan/kilogram, down 17 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holdings were 962.21 tons, down 3.15 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15,339.66 tons, down 16.94 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 229,485 contracts, down 7565 contracts; the silver CFTC non - commercial net positions were 44,268 contracts, down 6390 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Volumes**: The total quarterly supply and demand of gold were both 1313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.84 tons in supply and 54.83 tons in demand. The annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces, and the annual global total demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.17%, down 0.53%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.6%, up 0.12% [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for gold was 17.36%, up 0.33% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The US Department of Commerce added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a 50% tax rate. The new list covers a wide range of products, including wind turbines and their components, mobile cranes, railway vehicles, furniture, compressors, and pump equipment [2]. - US President Trump said the US would help Ukraine defend but would not send ground troops, and reiterated that Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO [2]. - The US and Japan plan to conduct in - depth consultations on implementing a $550 billion investment in the US. The investment involves important fields such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, steel, and shipbuilding, and a mechanism to verify national interests will be established [2]. - S&P confirmed the US "AA+/A - 1+" sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook, reflecting the expected continuous resilience of the US economy [2]. - The European Central Bank President Lagarde said the trade agreement between the US and the EU was slightly higher than expected but far from the severe scenario of US tariffs exceeding 20% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has expanded its steel and aluminum tariffs to include 407 categories of derived products, imposing a 50% tax rate, which is expected to significantly impact costs and profit margins for various industries [1][1][1] Group 1: Tariff Expansion Details - The U.S. Department of Commerce has announced the inclusion of 407 categories of steel and aluminum derived products in the tariff list, with a tax rate set at 50% [1] - The expanded list covers a wide range of products, including wind turbines and components, mobile cranes, bulldozers, heavy equipment, rail vehicles, compressors, and pumps [1][1] Group 2: Economic Impact - According to estimates, the expanded steel and aluminum tariffs will affect imports worth at least $320 billion, based on the projected total import value for 2024 [1] - The increase in tariffs is expected to further elevate inflationary pressures by contributing to rising prices [1] Group 3: Industry Reactions - Companies are concerned that the 50% tariff will lead to increased costs and significantly impact profit margins [1] - Industry experts view this move not just as a tariff issue but as a strategic shift in the U.S. regulatory approach towards steel and aluminum derived products [1][1]

Group 1 - The Trump administration has significantly expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum products, imposing a 50% tariff on over 400 product categories, including firefighting equipment, machinery, construction materials, and specialty chemicals made from steel and aluminum [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce stated that the new measures cover 407 new product categories, aiming to close loopholes and support the revival of the U.S. steel and aluminum industries [1] - Experts predict that the impact of these tariffs will be extensive, with the current steel and aluminum tariffs covering at least $320 billion in imported goods, which is expected to further increase inflationary pressures in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [1] Group 2 - S&P Global indicated that the substantial revenue generated from the broad tariff policy will largely offset the recent significant tax cuts and spending reductions, maintaining the U.S. long-term sovereign credit rating at AA+ [2] - The report warns that if the U.S. deficit continues to expand over the next two to three years without effective spending control or addressing the fiscal gap caused by tax cuts, there may be a downgrade in the rating [2] - Despite the increase in customs tariff revenue, the federal budget deficit still widened by approximately 20% during the same period [2]

全球货运巨头德迅集团海关副总裁Brian Baldwin评论称："汽配、化工、塑料、家具零件，只要闪烁金 属光泽、或与钢铝沾边，基本都在清单上，这是一种在钢铝衍生品监管方式上的战略转变。" 不过，商务部发布的清单仅以具体的海关编码标注新增产品，而非产品名称。例如，灭火器这一类产品 在清单中仅被标注为"8424.10.0000"，是数百个10位编码中的一项。这种呈现方式让公众难以全面了解 究竟哪些产品受到了本轮关税扩展的影响。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间周二(8月19日)，美国商务部宣布，将407个产品类别纳入钢铁和铝关税清 单，适用税率为50%。 据美国商务部周二确认，新关税已于本周一生效，大幅扩张了此前特朗普针对关键大宗商品宣布的征税 范围。 据悉，此次新增清单涵盖范围广泛，包括风力涡轮机及其部件、移动起重机、铁路车辆、家具、压缩机 与泵类设备等数百种产品，这些产品要么由钢铝制成，要么包含钢铝部件。 美国商务部工业与安全事务副部长杰弗里·凯斯勒声明称："今天的行动扩大了钢铁和铝关税的覆盖范 围，旨在堵住规避通道，持续振兴美国钢铝产业。" 特朗普政府已多次强调要扩大钢铝关税覆盖范围，以保护国内制造业并遏制进口依 ...

当地时间8月19日，美国商务部宣布，将407个产品类别纳入钢铁和铝关税清单，适用税率为50%。 商务部声明称，此次新增清单涵盖范围广泛，包括风力涡轮机及其部件、移动起重机、铁路车辆、家 具、压缩机与泵类设备等数百种产品。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 特朗普政府已多次强调要扩大钢铝关税覆盖范围，以保护国内制造业并遏制进口依赖。 此前，美国商务部15日晚间发布公告表示，工业与安全局已将407个产品编码加入《美国协调关税 表》，这些产品将因所含钢铁和铝成分而被加征额外关税。公告称，这些产品中非钢铁和铝的部分，将 适用特朗普总统对特定国家商品所征收的关税税率。扩大的关税清单将于8月18日正式生效。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on August 15 that it will expand the list of products subject to a 50% import tariff on steel and aluminum, adding hundreds of derivative products [1] - The Federal Register published by the Department of Commerce indicates that the Bureau of Industry and Security will add 407 tariff codes to identify products that require additional tariffs due to containing steel or aluminum components [1] - The expanded tariff list will officially take effect on August 18 [1]