【环球时报驻日本特约记者 严格 环球时报记者 马梦阳】"日本公司正面临美国政府钢铁和铝关税的广 泛影响。"《日经亚洲评论》28日报道称，美国政府将以钢铁和铝为原材料的商品作为"衍生商品"，纳 入征税对象，"（日本）企业需要承担比最初想象更重的负担，从建筑设备到叉子、刀具等餐具，已经 涉及至少720种产品"。 今年7月，日美达成协议，日本输美产品的"对等关税"、汽车及汽车零部件税率为15%。明确关税税率 让企业更容易制定策略，以消化额外成本，但钢铁和铝关税"改变了游戏规则"，因为企业继续面临更多 类别被纳入"衍生商品"清单的风险。9月19日，日本经济产业大臣武藤容治在谈到扩大钢铁和铝关税产 品时说："我们将努力确定影响，同时与相关行业进行协调。" 面对复杂的钢铝关税，向美出口割草机的日企山彦表示，由于关税的计算方式不清晰，公司目前无法详 细核算自身会受到多大影响。日本一家轴承制造企业有关人士表示："如果不能明确征收钢铁和铝关税 的零部件，转嫁成本也很难。" 此外，美国商务部本月还启动了一项调查，以判断是否需要对机床、工业机器人和医疗设备征收特定行 业的关税或限制进口。据报道，日本机床行业正屏息观望最终的关税税率 ...

申请窗口自美东时间2025年9月15日开启，并于2025年9月29日晚11点59分关闭。 当地时间9月16日，美国商务部在《联邦公报》中发布通知称，美国工业和安全局（BIS）已建立流程，以便将更多钢铝制品衍生产品纳入美国总统特朗普 依据《1962年贸易扩展法》第232条授权的关税范围。 上述通知并宣布，2025年9月的申请窗口已开放。具体而言，申请窗口自美东时间2025年9月15日开启，并于2025年9月29日晚11点59分关闭。 窗口开启 此前在2025年2月10日，特朗普政府发布了第10895号公告"调整美国铝进口"（《铝公告》）和第10896号公告"调整美国钢铁进口"（《钢铁公告》）。这两 份公告分别对进口铝钢制品以及某些衍生钢铝制品征收特定税率的关税（统称"纳入公告"）。 今年2月，特朗普宣布自3月12日起将钢铝关税税率提高至25%，同时取消了原依据第232条款实施关税中的多项豁免条款，并加强打击关税错误分类及逃税 行为。 如前所述，他还指示美国商务部在90天内建立机制，将更多钢铁和铝衍生产品纳入第232条款关税范围。美国商务部于5月将约300种钢铁相关产品列入征税 清单，涵盖马蹄铁、推土机刀片等多种 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others in the special steel and pipe sectors [5]. Core Insights - The expansion of U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs has put pressure on steel prices, leading to a notable contraction in steel mill profits [5]. - The report highlights that the long-term focus will remain on capacity management, with a combination of market-oriented and administrative measures expected to optimize crude steel supply [5]. - The report indicates that the seasonal decline in steel demand, coupled with a vacuum in supply-side policies, has resulted in a significant narrowing of steel mill profits [5]. Price Trends - As of August 22, 2025, steel prices have decreased, with Shanghai's 20mm HRB400 rebar priced at 3,270 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from the previous week [3][11]. - The prices for various steel products have shown a downward trend, with hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel also experiencing price reductions [3][11]. Production and Inventory - As of August 22, 2025, the production of five major steel products increased to 8.78 million tons, with total inventory rising by 264,300 tons to 10.1621 million tons [4]. - The apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 1.948 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 48,600 tons [4]. Profitability - The report notes a decline in steel profitability, with margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel decreasing by 58 CNY/ton, 50 CNY/ton, and 42 CNY/ton respectively [3][5]. Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel in the general steel sector, and Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel in the special steel sector [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are neutral due to carbon - neutral policies controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market, along with volatile short - term macro sentiment. The basis shows a neutral state with a spot price of 20690 and a basis of 100, indicating a premium over the futures. The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 7093 tons to 120653 tons, also neutral. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is moving downwards, a neutral signal. The main positions are net long but the long positions are decreasing, showing a slightly bullish tendency. In the long run, carbon - neutral policies will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry and benefit aluminum prices, but the US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs creates a situation where bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, leading to an oscillating aluminum price [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Daily View - Fundamentals: Carbon - neutral policies control capacity expansion, downstream demand is not strong, the real - estate market remains weak, and short - term macro sentiment is volatile; neutral [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 20690, basis is 100, premium over futures; neutral [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory increased by 7093 tons to 120653 tons; neutral [2]. - Disk: Closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is moving downwards; neutral [2]. - Main Positions: Main net long positions, long positions decreasing; slightly bullish [2]. - Expectation: Carbon - neutral policies will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry and benefit aluminum prices in the long run, but the US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs creates a situation where bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, and the aluminum price will oscillate [2]. b. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish Factors: Carbon - neutral policies control capacity expansion; geopolitical disturbances between Russia and Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply; interest rate cuts [3]. - Bearish Factors: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products is cancelled [3]. - Logic: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. c. Daily Summary - Spot Prices: Shanghai's yesterday's spot price was 70770, down 375; Nanchu's was 70690, down 450; today's Yangtze River's was 70870, down 400 [4]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 699 to 70798 tons; LME inventory decreased by 425 to 74750 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory (weekly) increased by 29728 to 136300 tons [4]. d. Supply - Demand Balance | Time | Production (10,000 tons) | Net Imports (10,000 tons) | Apparent Consumption (10,000 tons) | Actual Consumption (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Balance (10,000 tons) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2018 | 3609 | 7.03 | 3615.03 | 3662.63 | - 47.61 | | 2019 | 3542.48 | - 0.64 | 3541.84 | 3610.44 | - 68.61 | | 2020 | 3712.44 | 105.78 | 3818.22 | 3816.92 | 1.3 | | 2021 | 3849.2 | 150.33 | 3994.63 | 4008.83 | - 14.2 | | 2022 | 4007.33 | 46.55 | 4053.88 | 4083.86 | - 29.98 | | 2023 | 4151.3 | 139.24 | 4290.51 | 4294.81 | - 4.31 | | 2024 | 4312.27 | 196.16 | 4502.5 | 4487.5 | 15 | [22]

Group 1 - The stock price of Chongqing Steel is reported at 1.51 yuan as of August 21, 2025, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.5953 million hands and a transaction amount of 241 million yuan [1] - Chongqing Steel operates in the steel industry, primarily engaged in the production and sales of steel products, which are widely used in construction and machinery manufacturing [1] - The recent announcement by the U.S. to impose a 50% tariff on 407 categories of steel and aluminum derivatives is expected to have a limited direct impact on Chinese steel companies, as only 0.7% of China's steel exports went to the U.S. in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Chongqing Steel indicated in its semi-annual report forecast that losses have decreased in the first half of the year [1] - On August 21, 2025, the net inflow of main funds into Chongqing Steel was 23.7737 million yuan, accounting for 0.19% of the circulating market value, with a cumulative net inflow of 48.1723 million yuan over the past five trading days, representing 0.38% of the circulating market value [1]

Group 1 - The stock price of Maanshan Iron & Steel Company (马钢股份) on August 20 was 3.80 yuan, down 0.01 yuan or 0.26% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 817,301 hands and a transaction amount of 310 million yuan [1] - Maanshan Iron & Steel operates in the steel industry, primarily engaged in the production and sales of steel products, which are widely used in construction and machinery manufacturing [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on August 15 that 407 categories of steel and aluminum derivative products would be included in the tariff list, imposing a 50% tariff on these products; however, data shows that in the first half of 2025, China's steel exports to the U.S. will only account for 0.7% of total exports, indicating limited direct impact on domestic steel companies [1] Group 2 - Maanshan Iron & Steel recently indicated in its performance forecast that it has reduced its losses in the first half of the year [1] - On August 20, the net outflow of main funds for Maanshan Iron & Steel was 13.8779 million yuan, accounting for 0.06% of its circulating market value; over the past five days, the net outflow of main funds totaled 161.9163 million yuan, representing 0.71% of its circulating market value [1]

Core Points - The U.S. government has unexpectedly expanded the 50% steel and aluminum tariffs to 407 additional product categories, impacting various industries including wind turbines, heavy machinery, and consumer goods [3][4][6] - The rapid implementation of these tariffs has left importers and customs brokers unprepared, leading to significant operational challenges [3][6][7] - The expansion of tariffs is part of a broader strategy by the Trump administration to strengthen the domestic steel and aluminum industries, with previous increases in tariffs and the removal of exemptions [4][5][10] Industry Impact - The new tariffs are expected to increase costs for a wide range of products, including consumer goods and industrial items, potentially leading to higher prices for consumers [6][11] - The tariffs are projected to affect approximately $328 billion worth of imports, significantly increasing inflationary pressures on the economy [11] - Industries such as construction, automotive, and packaging are likely to face the most severe impacts due to rising steel and aluminum costs, with estimates suggesting that the cost of manufacturing a vehicle could increase by over $2,000 [12] Company Responses - Major steel producers like Cleveland-Cliffs and Steel Dynamics have reported rising product prices, with average steel prices increasing from $998 to $1,134 per ton [12] - Companies like Daimler Trucks North America are attempting to pass on increased costs to consumers, reflecting the broader trend of rising production costs due to tariffs [12]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has unexpectedly expanded the 50% steel and aluminum tariffs to 407 additional product categories, impacting various industries and raising concerns among importers and businesses [3][4][6]. Group 1: Tariff Expansion Details - The recent tariff increase is part of a series of measures initiated by the Trump administration to strengthen the U.S. steel and aluminum industries, with tariffs raised from 25% to 50% [5][12]. - The newly affected products include wind turbine components, heavy machinery, furniture, and various consumer goods, with an estimated 673 steel and 188 aluminum derivative products now subject to tariffs [6][8]. - The rapid implementation of these tariffs has left many importers unprepared, leading to significant operational challenges [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The expansion of tariffs is expected to affect approximately $328 billion worth of imports, significantly increasing inflationary pressures on prices already rising due to previous tariff measures [12][13]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicates a 0.9% month-on-month increase in July, the largest in three years, suggesting that the tariffs will exacerbate existing inflation trends [13]. - Industries such as construction, automotive, and packaging are projected to face the most severe impacts, with the cost of manufacturing a vehicle potentially increasing by over $2,000 due to the tariffs [13][14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Gold main contract fluctuated during the session, while the Shanghai Silver contract weakened significantly. The US Department of Commerce's tariff - increasing policy has caused the precious metals market to experience a correction due to the spill - over effect of steel and aluminum tariffs. However, the tariffs have no substantial impact on silver, and the probability of silver being additionally taxed is extremely low. The current correction may be mainly driven by market sentiment. The S&P's confirmation of the US sovereign credit rating has supported the US dollar, and the dollar index has continued its rebound from a low level. The market is currently focusing on the cease - fire expectation between Russia and Ukraine and the expected trading around the Fed's interest - rate cuts at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. If Fed Chairman Powell further releases hawkish signals, the dollar index and US Treasury yields may continue to rebound, putting pressure on the upward movement of gold prices. In the short term, if there is no significant progress in the geopolitical situation, the precious metals market is expected to continue to trade within a range, and mid - term interest - rate cuts provide strong support for the bottom of gold prices. The negotiation between Russia and the US may affect the gold price. If the negotiation makes substantial progress, it may further relieve the downward pressure on the gold price; if it fails to meet expectations, it may increase the demand for safe - haven buying. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards gold in the short term, and pay attention to short - term rebound trading opportunities for silver as it approaches the oversold range. The recommended trading range for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract is 9000 - 9100 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 772.68 yuan/gram, down 2.38 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 9042 yuan/kilogram, down 145 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 191,474 lots, up 39 lots; the main - contract positions of Shanghai Silver were 318,678 lots, down 23,822 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 160,754 lots, down 1365 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract were 114,342 lots, down 5142 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse - receipt quantity of gold was 36,582 kilograms, up 249 kilograms; the warehouse - receipt quantity of silver was 1,140,199 kilograms, down 9247 kilograms [2]. 3.2现货市场 - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 768.7 yuan/gram, down 4.2 yuan, and the basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 3.98 yuan/gram. The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's silver spot price was 9026 yuan/kilogram, down 128 yuan, and the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 16 yuan/kilogram, down 17 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holdings were 962.21 tons, down 3.15 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15,339.66 tons, down 16.94 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 229,485 contracts, down 7565 contracts; the silver CFTC non - commercial net positions were 44,268 contracts, down 6390 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Volumes**: The total quarterly supply and demand of gold were both 1313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.84 tons in supply and 54.83 tons in demand. The annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces, and the annual global total demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.17%, down 0.53%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.6%, up 0.12% [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for gold was 17.36%, up 0.33% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The US Department of Commerce added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a 50% tax rate. The new list covers a wide range of products, including wind turbines and their components, mobile cranes, railway vehicles, furniture, compressors, and pump equipment [2]. - US President Trump said the US would help Ukraine defend but would not send ground troops, and reiterated that Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO [2]. - The US and Japan plan to conduct in - depth consultations on implementing a $550 billion investment in the US. The investment involves important fields such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, steel, and shipbuilding, and a mechanism to verify national interests will be established [2]. - S&P confirmed the US "AA+/A - 1+" sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook, reflecting the expected continuous resilience of the US economy [2]. - The European Central Bank President Lagarde said the trade agreement between the US and the EU was slightly higher than expected but far from the severe scenario of US tariffs exceeding 20% [2].

Core Points - The U.S. government has unexpectedly expanded the 50% steel and aluminum tariffs to 407 additional product categories, impacting various industries including heavy machinery, furniture, and energy infrastructure [1][3][4] - The rapid implementation of these tariffs has left U.S. customs brokers and importers unprepared, leading to significant operational challenges [1][4][5] - The expansion of tariffs is part of a broader strategy by the Trump administration to strengthen the domestic steel and aluminum industries, with previous increases in tariff rates and product inclusions [3][6] Industry Impact - The newly affected products include consumer goods packaging, industrial tools, heavy machinery, and automotive parts, indicating a strategic shift in regulatory approaches to steel and aluminum derivatives [4][5] - The tariffs are expected to increase costs for U.S. manufacturers, with estimates suggesting that the tariffs could affect $328 billion worth of imports, significantly raising inflationary pressures [8][9] - The price of steel has already seen a notable increase, with domestic steel producers reporting a 16% rise in prices this year, which will likely impact various sectors including construction and automotive manufacturing [9][10] Company Responses - Companies like Daimler Trucks North America are attempting to pass on the increased costs from tariffs to consumers, with significant price adjustments made to their products [10] - The operational burden on companies has increased as they must now collect detailed data on aluminum content and origin to comply with the new tariff regulations [5][6] - The unexpected nature of the tariff expansion has particularly affected smaller importers, who may struggle to adapt to the new compliance requirements [1][4]