Group 1 - The U.S. Senate is advancing a temporary funding bill, indicating a potential end to the prolonged government shutdown, which has lasted for 35 days and caused an estimated loss of $7 billion [3][6] - The temporary funding bill aims to provide funding until January 31, 2024, and includes key projects like food stamps and veterans' affairs [3][6] - The market is reacting positively to the potential passage of the funding bill, which is expected to stabilize basic services and provide a more predictable environment for businesses and consumers [3][6] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding the potential for interest rate cuts in December, with some members advocating for continued cuts due to low inflation and stable employment, while others express caution [6][8] - Concerns are raised about the U.S. economy potentially facing a stagflation scenario reminiscent of the 1970s, with rising inflation expectations and slowing growth [6][8] - Recent economic data, such as the October ISM manufacturing PMI at 48.7 and a modest increase of only 42,000 jobs in the private sector, indicate a weakening economic landscape [6][8] Group 3 - Gold prices have surged, with spot gold exceeding $4,130 per ounce, reflecting a flight to safety and concerns over long-term monetary credibility [8][11] - Central banks globally, including China's, have been increasing their gold reserves, with China's reserves reaching 74.09 million ounces, marking a continuous increase for 12 months [8][11] - The market is advised to manage gold investments carefully, as while the long-term outlook is bullish, volatility may increase [11][15] Group 4 - The relationship between high interest rates, inflation expectations, and fiscal policy is critical for assessing the attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets [15][16] - The upcoming Senate vote, data releases, and the Federal Reserve's December meeting are pivotal events that will clarify the market's direction regarding gold, the strength of the yuan, and the pricing of dollar assets [16]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its fourth week, causing significant economic losses estimated at $7 billion per month, which cannot be recovered once the government reopens [3][4]. Economic Impact - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that if the shutdown lasts for 4 weeks, the U.S. GDP will decrease by $7 billion; if it lasts for 6 weeks, the loss will be $11 billion; and if it extends to 8 weeks, the total loss could reach $14 billion [4]. Political Dynamics - There is a growing pessimism among senators regarding the possibility of reaching a bipartisan agreement to reopen the federal government, as highlighted by North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis [5]. - Senate Democratic leaders insist that negotiations on healthcare subsidies must occur before they agree to reopen the government [5]. SNAP Benefits and Legal Actions - A coalition of 25 states and the District of Columbia has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration for halting the distribution of food stamps (SNAP) during the shutdown, arguing that this decision is illegal and jeopardizes food security for millions [6][7]. - The SNAP emergency fund, estimated to be between $5 billion and $6 billion, is insufficient to cover the anticipated $8 billion in benefits for November, but it could provide partial support [7].