Market Overview - The market's risk appetite has significantly improved, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September rising to 94%[4] - The Nasdaq led the gains with an increase of 3.87%, while gold prices rose by 1.72% due to geopolitical tensions and tariffs[4] - Brent crude oil experienced a sharp decline of 4.81%[4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Fixed Income: Favor high-grade credit bonds and adjust duration flexibly, focusing on bank and insurance sector movements[5] - Overseas Equities: Suggest long-term investment opportunities in the US tech sector, particularly AI, given the resilience of economic data[5] - Gold: Strengthened as a safe-haven asset due to geopolitical conflicts and economic slowdown, serving as a hedge against inflation[5] - A-shares: Current liquidity supports the market, but valuation pressures are evident; focus on low-valuation sectors[5] - Commodities: Overall underweight due to weak supply and demand; consider opportunities in new energy sectors[5] Risk Factors - Policy adjustment risks, market volatility risks, geopolitical shocks, economic data validation risks, and liquidity transmission risks are highlighted[6]

当地时间7日，美国政府此前公布的经过调整的"对等关税"生效，对数十个贸易伙伴征收10%至41%不 等的关税。随后，印度、日本、瑞士等多方发声，表达对关税的不满。 日本：强烈要求美国修改行政令 日本面对的"对等关税"税率为15%。当前，日本方面"强烈"要求美方修改总统行政令。 据《日本经济新闻》网站报道，日本首相石破茂7日向记者表示，美方没有落实此前双方达成的协议中 有关"税收减轻"的内容。 印度与美国之间的贸易谈判经过五轮谈判后宣告破裂，原因是双方在开放印度庞大的农业和奶制品行 业，以及停止购买俄罗斯石油等方面存在分歧。 印度外交部经济关系部长拉维表示，"美国提高关税缺乏逻辑，因此这只是一个暂时的异常现象，是印 度将面临的一个暂时问题，但随着时间的推移，我们相信最终会找到解决方案。" 瑞士：希望继续谈判 7日生效的"对等关税"中，瑞士面临的税率为39%，是发达国家中最高的。 瑞士内阁当天召开紧急会议后发布声明说，政府"仍致力于与美国进行磋商，力求降低这些关税。联邦 委员会正与美方主管部门以及受影响的行业保持密切联系。" 报道称，美方此前在谈判中承诺，日本在被加征"对等关税"时可获得"税收减轻"：如果日本输美商 ...

Group 1 - The dollar index has fallen below 100, while the 30-year Treasury yield has surged past 5%, leading to an additional $50 billion in annual interest payments [2] - The U.S. is experiencing a wave of de-dollarization, primarily driven by actions from the Trump administration, including a recent executive order imposing 100% tariffs on key exports from 23 countries [2][4] - Countries like Russia, Brazil, and Iran are increasingly using alternative currencies for trade, with 92.3% of Russia's trade with BRICS partners now settled in currencies other than the dollar [4] Group 2 - The U.S. sanctions have prompted a significant shift away from the dollar, with China selling $74 billion in U.S. Treasuries, marking a 16-year low in holdings [4] - The SPFS system in Russia, which bypasses SWIFT, is now connected to 159 countries, indicating a growing trend towards alternative payment systems [5] - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped below 55%, the lowest level since 1995, signaling a decline in dollar dominance [7]

Group 1 - The total scale of bond ETFs has surpassed 350 billion yuan, indicating the arrival of an index-based investment era in the bond market [1] - Public funds in the first half of the year distributed a total of 127.5 billion yuan, with bond funds accounting for over 85% of the total distribution [1] - International gold prices increased by over 25% in the first half of 2025, driven by safe-haven demand, and are expected to continue rising [1] Group 2 - Several bank convertible bonds are facing mandatory redemption due to strong stock performance, leading to a contraction in the convertible bond market [2] - Chinese banks are increasingly investing in bonds, with small and medium-sized banks' bond investment balances rising to 46.41 trillion yuan, and large banks reaching 49.54 trillion yuan [2] Group 3 - The production of forest food in China has exceeded 200 million tons annually, with significant contributions from various regions [3] - The "thermal quenching" technology developed by researchers allows for precise switching of quantum materials between conductive and insulating states, potentially increasing electronic product speeds significantly [3] Group 4 - Leading photovoltaic glass companies are planning to reduce production by up to 30% due to a significant drop in prices [4] - *ST Yuancheng is under investigation for suspected financial data misrepresentation, which could lead to forced delisting [4] Group 5 - Lenovo Holdings plans to reduce its stake in Lakala by up to 3%, equating to approximately 23.64 million shares, due to business arrangements [5] - The actual controller of Baichuan Co., Ltd. is under investigation, but the company's operations remain normal [6] Group 6 - *ST Aowei reported an asset loss of approximately 25.04 million yuan due to poor storage management by a processing partner [6] - Shida Shenghua expects a net loss of 52 to 60 million yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to production issues and declining product prices [7] Group 7 - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq down 0.82% and the Dow Jones up 0.89%, influenced by a strong labor market and reduced interest rate expectations [8] - Tesla's stock fell over 7% amid legislative changes, while solar and wind energy stocks rose [9]