上 市 公 司 商贸零售 2025 年 08 月 20 日 若羽臣 (003010) —— 自有品牌爆发驱动高增，新品&全球化打开新空间 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 19 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 54.03 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 82.50/10.90 | | 市净率 | 11.1 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.93 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 8,554 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,727.29/11,821.63 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-19 09-19 10-19 11-19 12-19 01-19 02-19 03-19 04-19 05-19 06-19 07-19 08-19 -200% 0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 若羽臣 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 王盼 A0230523120001 wangpan@swsresearch. ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The consumer demand in the food and beverage industry is shifting from functional consumption to emotional value consumption, indicating a growing interest in cultural and emotional experiences such as concerts and movies [1][2][9][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Emotional Value Consumption**: The transition towards emotional value consumption is driven by the fulfillment of material needs, leading consumers to seek emotional connections and self-identity [2][9]. - **Brand Importance**: Brands are increasingly seen as symbols of cultural and emotional connections. Companies should leverage emotional value in marketing to strengthen ties with consumers and enhance sales conversion [5][11]. - **Price Elasticity**: There is a notable decline in price elasticity, making it difficult for companies to rely solely on low prices for sales growth. Instead, differentiation in products, particularly in emotional value, is essential to attract consumers [6][21]. - **Generational Influence**: The Y and Z generations, totaling approximately 500 million people, are significant drivers of emotional value consumption. They possess strong purchasing power and unique consumption philosophies, emphasizing aesthetics and pet-related products [7][19]. - **Technological Advancements**: Improvements in technology and social productivity have led to a wider variety of market offerings, allowing for personalized services that cater to specific market segments [8][22]. Additional Important Insights - **Types of Emotional Consumption**: Emotional consumption can be categorized into three types: addictive consumption (e.g., alcohol, tobacco), social consumption (e.g., luxury goods), and self-pleasing consumption (e.g., perfumes, pet products) [3][15][17]. - **Cultural Consumption Trends**: The rise of cultural services, such as concerts and movies, reflects an increasing consumer demand for cultural experiences, indicating a shift from product-based to service-based consumption [9][10]. - **Market Adaptation**: Companies are adapting to these changes by innovating products and enhancing brand emotional value to resonate with consumers, particularly the younger demographic [11][12]. - **Online Channel Growth**: There is a significant shift towards online channels, with platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu playing crucial roles in content marketing and consumer engagement [12]. - **Future of Emotional Value**: Emotional value is expected to become increasingly important in the market, influencing product innovation and investment strategies in the capital market [22]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the evolving landscape of consumer behavior and the strategic responses required from companies in the food and beverage industry.

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading global digital management firm for consumer brands, transitioning from e-commerce agency services to self-owned brand incubation, which is experiencing rapid growth [1][13]. - The dual-driven strategy of "agency services + self-owned brands" is leading to an increasing proportion of revenue from self-owned brands [1][15]. - The e-commerce agency industry has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 64% from 2011 to 2018, but growth has slowed to a CAGR of 14% from 2018 to 2023, with the market size reaching 1.78 trillion yuan in 2023 [1][31]. - The company has successfully launched self-owned brands "LYCOCELLE" and "FineNutri," with significant sales growth expected in the coming years [2][15]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company started as an e-commerce agency in 2011 and has evolved into a digital management firm for consumer brands, focusing on brand positioning, store operations, integrated marketing, data mining, and supply chain management [13][14]. - The self-owned brand "LYCOCELLE" focuses on premium clothing care products, while "FineNutri" targets women's anti-aging needs with a focus on specific ingredients [2][13]. Business Analysis - The revenue distribution among agency services, brand management, and self-owned brands is shifting, with self-owned brands increasing from 13.22% in 2022 to an expected 28.37% in 2024 [15]. - The brand management market is projected to grow significantly, with the company transitioning from traditional agency services to brand management [1][31]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.37 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.50 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits increasing from 54 million yuan to 338 million yuan [2][4]. - The company expects a revenue growth rate of 52.3% in 2025, followed by 34.8% in 2026 and 24.1% in 2027 [2][4]. Market Position - The company ranks fifth among the top ten e-commerce operators in China, indicating a strong market position [1]. - The brand management market is expected to reach over 580 billion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of 7.53% from 2023 to 2028 [1][31].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rapid growth and upcoming IPO plans of the brand "Zhanjia," which specializes in fragrance laundry detergents and has gained popularity through celebrity marketing and concept promotion [2][4] - The parent company, Ruoyuchen, is planning to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its capital strength, competitiveness, and international brand image [2][4] Group 2 - Ruoyuchen, established in 2011, has evolved from a single e-commerce operation model to a leading third-party e-commerce service provider in China, expanding into various categories including beauty and health products [4][5] - The company experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50.49% in revenue from 2015 to 2019, but faced declining growth rates in revenue and net profit since 2016, prompting a shift towards brand management and self-owned brand incubation [4][5] Group 3 - In 2024, Ruoyuchen reported revenue of 1.766 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.26%, with net profit rising 94.58% to 106 million yuan [5] - The revenue contribution from the third-party operation business decreased to approximately 764 million yuan, accounting for 43.25% of total revenue, down from 68.98% in 2022 [5] - Conversely, the brand management business generated around 500 million yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 212.24%, raising its contribution to 28.38% [5][6] Group 4 - The self-owned brand "Zhanjia" achieved revenue of 484 million yuan, increasing its share from 18.65% to 27.42% [6] - Zhanjia's strategic product, fragrance laundry detergent, quickly gained traction, achieving over 100 million yuan in sales within months of launch, and ranked first in Tmall's new brand sales during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [8][10] Group 5 - Despite high sales, Zhanjia has faced criticism regarding product quality and effectiveness, with consumers expressing dissatisfaction over design flaws and fragrance longevity [9] - The company has emphasized its commitment to quality by partnering with top manufacturers and sourcing high-quality raw materials globally [9]

Core Viewpoint - Ruoyuchen is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as part of its global strategy, aiming to enhance its international presence and competitiveness in brand expansion and supply chain globalization [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Ruoyuchen, established in 2011, is a global consumer brand digital management company primarily engaged in brand operation [1]. - The company went public on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2020, becoming the first listed company in the brand operation sector [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2021, Ruoyuchen reported revenue of 1.288 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.44%, but net profit fell by 67.02% to 29.2 million yuan [1]. - In 2022, revenue decreased to 1.217 billion yuan, down 5.55%, while net profit increased by 15.55% to 33.74 million yuan [1]. - In 2024, Ruoyuchen's revenue and net profit grew by 29.26% and 94.58%, respectively, driven by the performance of its own brands [2]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Ruoyuchen launched its own brand "Zhanjia" in 2022, focusing on the "special care for special clothes" concept, with a strategic product, fragrance laundry liquid, achieving over 100 million yuan in sales within months [2]. - The revenue from Ruoyuchen's own brands increased by 90.28% in 2024, accounting for 28.37% of total revenue [2]. - The company plans to continue building a multi-brand matrix and deepen its ecological layout in the industry [3]. Group 4: Market Context - Other beauty brand operators are also facing challenges, with competitors like Liren Lizhuang experiencing continuous losses and Baozun e-commerce hitting growth bottlenecks [2]. - The decline in e-commerce growth has prompted brands to seek new growth avenues [2].

Group 1: AI Medical Industry Insights - The AI medical sector is entering a new phase of multi-modal integration and practical application, driven by technological changes that alter application scenarios and data utilization [11] - Clinical auxiliary diagnosis and drug development are leading commercialization, while health management potential remains to be unlocked [11] - Key investment targets include AI-assisted diagnosis, internet healthcare, and AI drug development, with specific companies highlighted for each segment [11] Group 2: Lin Qingxuan's Market Position - Lin Qingxuan is a leading high-end domestic skincare brand in China, focusing on camellia oil as a core ingredient and achieving significant sales milestones [11][12] - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with revenue projected to grow from 690 million yuan in 2022 to 1.21 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.7% [11] - The skincare market in China is expected to grow significantly, with the market size projected to increase from 332.9 billion yuan in 2019 to 461.9 billion yuan by 2024 [12] Group 3: Power Industry Developments - Gansu Province has introduced a capacity pricing mechanism for coal power, which is expected to enhance the profitability stability of coal power plants [16] - The new pricing mechanism aligns with national standards and is anticipated to improve the revenue stability of coal power plants, thereby optimizing the energy structure in China [16] - The introduction of capacity pricing for energy storage systems is expected to increase investment in storage solutions, improving the consumption rate of renewable energy [16]

Group 1: 若羽臣 (Ruo Yu Chen) - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for H1 2025, projected between 0.63 to 0.78 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 62% to 100% driven by strong performance of its proprietary brands [1][3][29] - The proprietary brand "Zhenjia" has shown robust growth since its launch, with the introduction of a strategic product, scented laundry detergent, expected to further enhance brand performance [4][30] - The company has raised its earnings forecast for 2025-2027, estimating EPS of 0.79 (+0.02), 1.16 (+0.09), and 1.56 (+0.12) yuan, reflecting a higher growth potential compared to industry averages [2][29] Group 2: 瀚蓝环境 (Hanlan Environment) - The company anticipates a net profit of approximately 9.67 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 9%, primarily due to the consolidation of Guangdong Feng Environmental Protection [7][26] - The acquisition of Guangdong Feng Environmental Protection is expected to enhance operational efficiency and contribute an additional 50 million yuan to net profit in June 2025 [7][27] - The company is actively pursuing cost reduction and efficiency improvement strategies, which are expected to sustain its growth trajectory [7][26] Group 3: 福田汽车 (Foton Motor) - The company forecasts a net profit of 7.77 billion yuan for H1 2025, an increase of approximately 87.5% year-on-year, driven by strong sales in heavy trucks and successful transitions to new energy vehicles [23][24] - Heavy truck sales reached 11,300 units in June, marking a year-on-year growth of 116.3%, with exports increasing by 135.7% [24] - The new energy vehicle segment saw sales exceeding 50,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 151%, positioning the company as a leader in the industry [24]

Group 1 - The company expects significant growth in its performance, with a projected net profit of 0.63-0.78 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 62%-100% [3] - The growth is primarily driven by the successful launch and expansion of its own brands, Zhanjia and Feicui, which are expected to continue gaining market traction [4] - Zhanjia's strategic product, the scented laundry detergent, is anticipated to enhance brand recognition and drive further sales growth in the laundry segment [4] Group 2 - The brand management business is experiencing healthy growth, leveraging operational efficiencies and introducing new brand partnerships to stimulate growth [4] - The company is focusing on optimizing internal management through talent development, technology application, and cross-department collaboration, leading to improved operational efficiency [4] - The acquisition of Yufeng Environmental is expected to enhance the company's operational capabilities and expand its market presence in waste incineration [9] Group 3 - The company reported a projected net profit of 9.67 billion yuan for H1 2025, marking a 9% increase year-on-year, with a more substantial increase of approximately 28% when excluding one-time gains from the previous year [9] - The company has successfully completed the acquisition of Yufeng Environmental, which is expected to create synergies in operations and enhance its competitive advantage in the waste management sector [9][10] - The company is actively expanding its heating business, having signed agreements for four new projects in H1 2025, contributing to its growth strategy [10]

Industry Overview - The National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting focusing on technology innovation, indicating the initiation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" preparation, which will highlight new fields and investment priorities that could attract capital market attention [2] - The autonomous driving industry is expected to see significant advancements, with Tesla's Robotaxi service anticipated to begin public trials on June 22, showcasing rapid progress in autonomous technology [2] - The Shenzhen pilot program for low-altitude economic management aims to enhance the application frequency of low-altitude economic scenarios, which could positively impact market expectations for the low-altitude economy industry chain [3] Advanced Manufacturing Sector - Major domestic automotive companies, including BYD and GAC Group, have committed to a payment term of no more than 60 days in response to the new regulations aimed at improving the payment environment for small and medium enterprises [6] - The average turnover days for accounts payable for major automotive manufacturers are as follows: BYD at 127.23 days, GAC Group at 112.87 days, and Dongfeng Motor at 221.27 days, indicating a significant impact on cash flow and operational costs [6] - This regulation is expected to improve cash flow for upstream suppliers, particularly small and medium enterprises, thereby reducing financing costs and operational risks [6] Consumer Sector - The summer tourism market is projected to grow significantly, with a 70% year-on-year increase in the number of travelers and an 80% increase in GMV, driven by family travel [9] - The brand Zhenjia has seen over 300% year-on-year growth in sales of its high-end fragrance laundry detergent, indicating a shift towards premium products in the home cleaning market [9] - The health supplement brand Feicui, focusing on high-end anti-aging products for women, is expected to contribute approximately 0.12 billion yuan in revenue after its launch in Q3 2024 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Viewpoints - The company has launched a significant new product, Ruby Oil, which is expected to expand its health supplement business [2] - The self-owned brands, Zhanjia and Feicui, are driving growth with Zhanjia projected to achieve a revenue of 501 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 90.28% [2] - The company's profitability is expected to improve due to the growth of its self-owned brands, with gross margins and net profit margins increasing in 2024 [3] - The brand management business is showing strong growth, with revenue expected to reach 501 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 212.24% [3] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards due to better-than-expected growth in self-owned brands, with a new forecast for 2027 net profit of 300 million yuan [4] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,366 million yuan in 2023 to 4,762 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 31.04% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 54.29 million yuan in 2023 to 302.92 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 30.37% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.33 yuan in 2023 to 1.85 yuan in 2027 [1]