国泰海通晨报 2026 年 01 月 29 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【策略研究】：本轮全球宽松周期下，各类资产关联度上升，新任美联储主席的变动有望重塑 全球货币政策路径与市场空间。 2、【建筑工程研究】华电科工：2025 全年公告重大合同同比增 83.8%，其中 2025Q4 重大合同同 比增 87.1%。重大合同快速增长，并将在后续不断落地，预示公司基本面有望受益提升。 3、【美妆研究】若羽臣：公司公告预计 2025 年归母净利润 1.76-2 亿元，同比+67%-89%，主要受 益自有品牌及品牌管理业务加速成长，看好旗下绽家、斐萃等多品牌高增，打开成长天花板。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 方奕(分析师) 021-38031658 fangyi2@gtht.com S0880520120005 黄维驰(分析师) 021-38032684 huangweich ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，本轮全球宽松周期下，各类资产关联度上升，新任美联储主 席的变动有望重塑全球货币政策路径与市场空间。短期来看，宽松交易仍在延续，权益与金属市场受 益。该行认为：1）无论哪位候选人上任，短期美联储货币政策或将延续宽松，弱美元概率较大，但需 注意潜在的缩表政策力度与传导。2）贵金属方面，弱美元与实际利率下降将支撑黄金的货币与金融属 性需求，而若哈塞特当选可能引发政策稳定性担忧，第三重利好因素或推动黄金等贵金属避险资产进一 步上行。3）宽松交易环境下，整体利好全球权益市场。对中国权益市场而言，随着经济转型加快、无 风险收益下沉与资本市场改革，"转型牛"的升势远未结束。 全球资本市场相关性显著提升。2024年9月美联储启动降息周期以来，中、欧等主要经济体同步推进， 全球流动性宽松格局形成。该行认为这一现象本质是全球化债，核心逻辑正是通过债务置换逐步降低资 金成本，缓解政府债务的利息偿付压力。对于全球市场而言：1）权益市场同步走强，纳斯达克100、日 经225等发达市场指数涨幅居前，上证指数、胡志明指数等新兴市场指数亦表现亮眼，且上行斜率的拐 点几乎同步出现；2）贵金属及工业金属价 ...

核心观点：本轮全球宽松周期下，各类资产关联度上升，新任美联储主席的变动有望重塑全球货币政策路径与市场空间。 摘要 ▶ 全球资本市场相关性显著提升 。2024年9月美联储启动降息周期以来，中、欧等主要经济体同步推进，全球流动性宽松格局形成。我们认为这一现象 本质是全球化债，核心逻辑正是通过债务置换逐步降低资金成本，缓解政府债务的利息偿付压力。对于全球市场而言：1）权益市场同步走强，纳斯达克 100、日经225等发达市场指数涨幅居前，上证指数、胡志明指数等新兴市场指数亦表现亮眼，且上行斜率的拐点几乎同步出现；2）贵金属及工业金属价 格同步上涨，金融属性领先实物需求属性扩张。商品市场与权益市场呈现强关联性，宽松交易的定价是核心。 ▶ 美联储决策逐渐透明、可预期，运转机制迭代优化。 近40年以来，历任美联储主席推动改革，主要包括：1）决策由秘密制定转向公开决策，强调利 率政策公布前与市场进行充分沟通。从格林斯潘开始，美联储的利率政策决策便开始有转向公开化、透明化的趋势，此后各位联储主席分别通过不同的方 式进一步促进了市场对于利率政策的消化过程。2）由经验驱动转向数据驱动。自格林斯潘开始，FOMC建立大量经济数据库，以 ...

[Table_Report] 相关报告 增量政策聚焦城市更新与新兴科技 2026.01.26 Q4 基金动向：增配 AI 基建与价值股 2026.01.24 主题轮动加快，聚焦国产半导体与电力 2026.01.18 AI 应用：以新生产工具重构新经济场景 2026.01.11 新兴产业空间广阔，看多中国产业龙头 2026.01.06 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 略 研 究 美联储换帅前瞻：历史复盘与影响展望 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 本报告导读 本轮全球宽松周期下，各类资产关联度上升，新任美联储主席的变动有望重塑全球 货币政策路径与市场空间。 投资要点： 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.27 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 黄维驰(分析师) | | | 021-38032684 | | | huangweichi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520110005 | 证 券 研 究 报 告 策 略 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Stock Market - US Stocks - Overweight [32] - European Stocks - Equal-weight [33] - Chinese A-shares - Equal-weight [35] - Hong Kong Stocks - Overweight [36] - Japanese Market - Overweight [40] - Indian Market - Equal-weight [41] Bond Market - US Bond Market - Overweight [57] - Chinese Bond Market - Overweight [59] - Japanese Bond Market - Underweight [60] - European Bond Market - Equal-weight [62] 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, global stock markets rose due to improved global liquidity under the Fed's interest rate cuts. Vietnamese stocks led in December, while US stocks were volatile at the end of the year, and the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index performed poorly in the last three months [30][31] - In December, the primary market of Chinese overseas bonds had different issuance situations for US dollar bonds and offshore RMB bonds. The secondary market of Chinese overseas bonds generally showed an upward trend [46][49][50] - In December, major global bond markets had mixed performances. The Fed's policy and market expectations affected the US bond market, while China's bond market rose due to policy support and economic data [53][59] - In December, the US dollar index declined, and the yen depreciated. The Fed's expected interest rate cuts in 2026 will weaken the US dollar, and the yen's interest rate attractiveness is insufficient [67] - In December, gold continued to rise but may have short - term corrections. Silver rose strongly but was highly volatile, and crude oil prices were weak and expected to remain under pressure [71] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Market - **12 - month Performance**: In December, most major global stock indices had different performances. The Vietnamese VN30 Index led with a 5.55% monthly increase, while the Hang Seng Tech Index had a significant decline of 1.48%. In 2025, all major global stock indices recorded gains [30][31] - **US Stocks**: The three major US stock indices had a differentiated trend in December. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record high, while the Nasdaq Composite Index declined slightly. The reasons for maintaining an overweight rating include the Fed's positive economic outlook, clear support for market liquidity, and the continuous realization of AI business [32][34] - **European Stocks**: European major stock indices oscillated higher in December. The reasons for maintaining an equal - weight rating are the stronger - than - expected economic resilience in the eurozone and the lack of growth potential despite lower valuations [33][34] - **Chinese A - shares**: The A - share market had a mild upward trend in December. The reasons for maintaining an equal - weight rating are the shift of policies from scale expansion to quality and efficiency improvement, slow fundamental repair, and a good liquidity structure [35] - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hong Kong stock market was under pressure in December. The reasons for maintaining an overweight rating are the expected return of southbound funds and the still - low valuation [36][38] - **Japanese/Indian Markets**: The Japanese stock market maintained a high - level oscillation in December. The reasons for upgrading to an overweight rating are the slower - than - expected pace of monetary policy normalization and the government's large - scale fiscal stimulus. The Indian stock market was in a high - level oscillation in December, and the reasons for downgrading to an equal - weight rating are trade frictions and currency depreciation, although the economy still maintains high - speed growth [40][41] Bond Market - **12 - month Performance**: In December, major global bond markets had different performances. The Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index declined by 0.51%, while the Bloomberg China Treasury and Policy Bank Bond Index rose by 1.22% [53][59] - **US Bond Market**: The US bond market declined in December. The reasons for an overweight rating are the expected Fed interest rate cuts in 2026 and its role in hedging market risks [57][59] - **Chinese Bond Market**: The Chinese bond market rose in December. The reasons for an overweight rating are the expectation of fiscal stimulus and the attractiveness of real yields [59] - **Japanese Bond Market**: The Japanese bond market declined significantly in December. The reasons for an underweight rating are the expected further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and fiscal risks [60][62] - **European Bond Market**: The European bond market was under pressure in December. The reasons for an equal - weight rating are the reduced expectation of safe - haven demand for European bonds and increased fiscal policy uncertainty [62] Foreign Exchange Market - **12 - month Performance**: In December, the US dollar index showed a mild downward trend, and the yen still depreciated slightly. The long - term stability of the US dollar is a concern, and the yen's interest rate attractiveness is insufficient [67] Commodity Market - **12 - month Performance**: In December, gold continued to rise, silver had a strong but volatile upswing, and crude oil prices were weak. Gold may have short - term corrections, silver has a risk of retracement after excessive speculation, and crude oil prices are expected to remain under pressure [71] Fund Selection - **December Performance**: The selected funds in December had different returns. For example, the monthly increase of the Taikang Kaitai Hong Kong Dollar Money Fund A HKD was 0.24%, and the monthly increase of the Huaxia Selected Greater China Technology Fund A HKD Acc was 3.63% [75]

Export Data Analysis - In October, China's export growth rate (in USD) turned negative at -1.1%, a decrease of 9.4 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Import growth rate (in USD) was 1.0%, down 6.4 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The decline in export growth is attributed to base effects and calendar effects, with one less working day in October compared to last year, suggesting a potential adjusted growth of 4.4%[4] Market Outlook - The negative export growth in October is unlikely to persist, supported by global easing cycles and manufacturing recovery, indicating strong external demand resilience[5] - Emerging markets, particularly Africa, showed robust growth, with exports to Africa increasing from 0.2% last year to 1.3% this year[6] - High-tech and electromechanical products maintained positive growth despite overall export declines, indicating a shift towards higher quality exports[6] Import Challenges - The import side faces more significant pressures, with domestic demand-related products showing mixed results; while some commodities like copper and iron ore saw marginal improvements, others like crude oil and steel experienced declining growth rates[6] - The overall decline in import volumes suggests that domestic demand growth remains unstable, necessitating close monitoring in the upcoming quarters[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy measures falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in domestic economic conditions, and unforeseen fluctuations in export dynamics[7]

Core Insights - The 10th Zhitong Finance Capital Market Annual Conference will be held in Shenzhen from December 3-5, 2025, focusing on investment opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market amid a global easing cycle [1][2] - The conference will feature top financial institutions and economists discussing new capital flow regulations and predicting the rhythm of the Hong Kong stock market for 2026 [2] Group 1: Market Trends - Since the last annual conference, global economic conditions have shown dual characteristics of "turmoil and restructuring," leading to significant changes in capital markets [1] - Major economies have entered a phase of monetary policy easing, with the UK and US initiating interest rate cuts, while the Eurozone maintains low rates to support recovery [1] - China's economy has demonstrated strong growth, with a GDP increase of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, contributing to global economic growth [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - There has been a substantial influx of capital into undervalued Chinese assets, with the Hang Seng Index rising 28% in a single quarter and the Hang Seng Tech Index rebounding over 50% this year [1] - Southbound capital inflows have reached new highs, indicating a comprehensive valuation recovery, with the price-to-earnings ratio of Hong Kong stocks rising from the historical 10th percentile to the 40th percentile [1] - Various sectors, including technology, biomedicine, cyclical industries, and new consumption, have led the market rally, with the IPO market experiencing explosive growth, topping global fundraising in the first three quarters [1] Group 3: Conference Details - The conference will include six major topics, such as thematic forums on capital markets and healthcare, a spring strategy meeting, and an awards ceremony for listed companies [2] - The annual awards will recognize outstanding companies and individuals, celebrating growth and leadership during market cycles [2] - The awards will feature 25 categories, including 18 company awards and 7 team/individual awards, with the winners announced on December 3, 2025 [2][3]

Government Policies - On September 19, the State Council held a meeting to discuss the implementation of the national ecological environment protection conference and policies related to domestic product standards in government procurement [2] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on September 22, 2025, to discuss the achievements of the financial industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2] Macroeconomic Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce, and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued a plan to stabilize growth in the light industry sector for 2025-2026 [3] - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments proposed to achieve the "Hundred Cities, Ten Thousand Circles" goal by 2030 to enhance urban convenience [3] - The People's Bank of China announced adjustments to the 14-day reverse repurchase operations to maintain liquidity in the banking system [3] - From January to August, 42,435 new foreign-invested enterprises were established, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, while the actual use of foreign capital decreased by 12.7% to 506.58 billion yuan [3][4] Investment Trends - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need for risk prevention and high-quality development in the capital market, accelerating reforms and opening up [6] - In 2023, the number of newly established index-enhanced funds reached 129, a 207% increase compared to the previous year, with a total scale of 72.843 billion yuan [6] - As of September 12, the number of domestic securities investment private equity firms with over 10 billion yuan in assets reached 92, with quantitative private equity firms accounting for nearly 50% [6] Company News - ByteDance announced it will continue to support its TikTok operations in the U.S. in compliance with Chinese laws [8] - Xiaomi announced a recall of 116,887 units of its SU7 standard electric vehicles due to safety concerns [8] - Ideal Auto signed a five-year strategic cooperation agreement with CATL to provide various battery systems for its products [8] - The State Administration for Market Regulation is investigating Chengdu Kuai Gou Technology Co., Ltd. for violations of e-commerce laws [8] International Developments - The U.S. stock market indices closed at new highs, with the Dow Jones up 0.37%, Nasdaq up 0.72%, and S&P 500 up 0.49% [10] - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain its current interest rate level while planning to reduce its asset holdings to normalize monetary policy [11] - The U.S. Senate rejected a temporary funding bill, increasing the risk of a government shutdown [11]

Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to lower its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%, the refinancing rate by 60 basis points to 3.65%, and the marginal lending rate by 60 basis points to 3.90% [2][4] - This marks the second rate cut by the ECB in 2023, following a previous cut in June [2][4] - Analysts suggest that the ECB's decision aligns with weak economic indicators and declining inflation data, making September a suitable time for further easing [2][5] Economic Indicators - The ECB forecasts overall inflation rates for the Eurozone over the next three years at 2.50%, 2.20%, and 1.90%, unchanged from previous predictions [4] - Core inflation rates are projected at 2.90%, 2.30%, and 2.00%, slightly revised from earlier estimates [4] - Economic growth forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been downgraded to 0.80%, 1.30%, and 1.50%, respectively, reflecting a weakening internal demand [4][5] Market Reactions - Following the ECB's announcement, major European stock indices saw gains, with the French CAC40, German DAX, and Italian FTSE MIB all closing higher [6] - Precious metals like gold and silver also experienced price increases, with gold closing at $2,558 per ounce, up 1.88% [6] Future Outlook - The next ECB meeting is scheduled for October 17, with speculation about potential further rate cuts [8] - Analysts predict that the ECB may continue to lower rates, possibly reaching levels between 2% and 2.25% by the end of 2025 [8][9] - The ECB's approach will remain data-dependent, with no predetermined path for future rate adjustments [8][9]