Group 1: Luxury Brands Entering the Restaurant Sector - Prada opened its first independent restaurant "迷上" in Shanghai, designed by renowned director Wong Kar-wai, blending Italian and Chinese culinary styles [1] - Other luxury brands like Gucci, Chanel, and Tiffany have previously explored the café sector in China, often as marketing strategies rather than standalone businesses [2] - The opening of "THE HALL" by Louis Vuitton in Chengdu marked a significant step for luxury brands in the full-service dining sector [2] Group 2: Operational Strategies and Market Trends - Many luxury dining projects are operated by third-party companies, indicating a reliance on specialized operators for successful execution [3] - Luxury brands aim to create experiential offerings that enhance customer engagement, with the goal of driving sales in their core product lines [3] - The shift in consumer behavior from shopping to experiential consumption is evident, necessitating adaptations in service models within the luxury sector [5] Group 3: Challenges in the Luxury Market - The luxury retail sector is facing challenges, with a reported 8% decline in retail rental income at Wynn Palace, reflecting a broader downturn in luxury consumption [6] - Despite an increase in tourist numbers and overall spending in Macau, per capita spending has significantly decreased, particularly among mainland Chinese tourists [6] - The luxury market may take several years to recover to pre-2019 levels, indicating a potential long-term shift in consumer preferences [6][7] Group 4: Changing Consumer Preferences - The luxury consumer landscape in China has evolved, with a notable decline in interest in traditional luxury brands like LVMH, as evidenced by a 2% drop in total revenue [7] - The emergence of alternative luxury offerings, such as local brands, suggests a shift in consumer loyalty and preferences away from established European luxury brands [7]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains its adjusted EBITDA forecast for Wynn Macau (01128) for 2025 and 2026, with the current stock price corresponding to 8.0 times the 2025 EV/EBITDA. The firm maintains an outperform rating and a target price of HKD 6.90, implying a 26% upside from the current stock price [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Wynn Macau reported Q1 2025 results with net revenue of USD 866 million, a year-on-year decline of 13% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 7%, recovering to 69% of Q1 2019 levels [2]. - Adjusted property EBITDA for Q1 2025 was USD 252 million, down 26% year-on-year and 14% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 65% of Q1 2019 levels, and falling short of Bloomberg's consensus estimate of USD 274 million [2]. Group 2: Management Insights - Management indicated that tariff policies may impact and delay capital expenditure plans for U.S. operations, but expect no effect on capital and operational expenditures in Macau [3]. - In April 2025, the mid-market betting volume remained stable compared to the same period in 2024, with direct VIP turnover showing year-on-year growth [3]. - The management emphasized that high-end mid-market business is the core development area for the Macau gaming industry, despite a highly competitive marketing rebate environment [3]. - The Wynn Palace's culinary landmark "Fleur" officially opened in May 2025, and the average fixed operating cost for Q1 2025 was USD 2.64 million, expected to maintain this level throughout the year [3]. - During the May Day Golden Week in 2025, mid-market betting volume increased compared to the same period in 2024, with hotel occupancy reaching 100% [3].