解码原奶周期时钟，2025 年有望迎来奶牧共振 20250809 摘要 青少年人口下降和原奶价格下跌导致乳制品需求和价格承压，城乡及区 域消费差异显著，但下沉市场和新消费场景有望驱动增长。 原奶成本占比高且产品同质化，使其成为乳制品产业链核心环节，原奶 价格波动直接影响终端产品价格和企业盈利。 原奶周期受奶牛生长周期、牧场盈亏、饲料成本、政策补贴等多重因素 影响，需关注牧场亏损对牛群淘汰的影响。 需求端升级和结构性爆发是奶价上涨的关键，供需短缺催化快速上涨， 供给增加导致加速下行，需关注需求端变化对供给侧的影响。 奶价下行期间，牧场产能去化缓慢，规模牧场短期内不会轻易退出，全 社会报表端已出现亏损，但现金流尚未亏损，投资回报不佳。 国内原奶价格倒挂导致进口奶粉占比下降，预计奶牛存栏量下降和生育 补贴有望带动消费，促使奶价进入长周期企稳状态。 牧业股价弹性大于乳制品行业，奶价企稳或上涨对牧业损益表有积极影 响。乳制品行业盈利改善需关注原奶止跌企稳，以及头部企业的盈利能 力。 Q&A 中国乳制品行业在过去十年的量价变化趋势如何？ 如何理解需求端在推动原料周期中的作用？ 国内乳制品消费存在城乡之间、高线市场与下沉市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector is experiencing steady growth in 2024, driven by consumption upgrades and health trends, with domestic companies enhancing R&D and brand influence amid trade tensions [1] Group 1: Alcoholic Beverages - In 2024, the liquor sector generated revenue of 12345.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 987.6 billion yuan, up 26.3% [3] - In Q1 2025, the liquor sector's revenue was 3212.4 billion yuan, growing by 17.9%, and net profit was 258.4 billion yuan, an increase of 28.1% [3] - High-end liquor continues to lead the market, while mid-range liquor is expanding rapidly, contributing to performance growth through product structure optimization [3] Group 2: Dairy Products - The dairy sector's revenue in 2024 was 3456.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.5% year-on-year growth, with net profit at 256.8 billion yuan, up 19.8% [3] - In Q1 2025, the dairy sector reported revenue of 885.4 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase, and net profit of 65.4 billion yuan, growing by 21.6% [3] - The performance of low-temperature yogurt and premium white milk is particularly strong, driven by consumption upgrades [3] Group 3: Snack Foods - The snack food sector achieved revenue of 4568.3 billion yuan in 2024, a 14.1% increase year-on-year, with net profit of 324.5 billion yuan, up 20.1% [3] - In Q1 2025, the snack food sector's revenue was 1168.3 billion yuan, growing by 16.3%, and net profit reached 83.2 billion yuan, an increase of 22.7% [3] - The demand for health, convenience, and personalization is driving continuous innovation in the snack food industry, leading to an accelerated launch of new products and expanding market share [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from ongoing consumption upgrades and health trends, with opportunities arising from aging population, urbanization, and rising income levels [4] - It is recommended to focus on leading companies with brand advantages, channel strengths, and strong innovation capabilities, as well as on leading players in niche categories benefiting from consumption upgrades and health trends [4]