【笔记20260319— 央妈：吃饭不喝酒（-美联储议息会议表态偏鹰-油价上涨+股市大跌+资金面均衡偏松=小上】 如果你的经验还只是停留在对市场本身的回顾上，而没有提炼为更加客观的、能够战胜人性弱点的投资体系，那么，经验就只会成为你前进的绊脚石，而 不是腾飞的垫脚石。 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅上行。 ——笔记哥《应对》 隔夜伊朗巨型气田遇袭战争升级，油价大涨。美PPI数据超预期，美联储议息会议表态偏鹰，流动性担忧升温。早盘债市情绪偏谨慎，10Y国债利率 （250022）小幅高开在1.834%后震荡。股市大跌，利率最低下至1.8225%、后回升至1.836%。 -------------------------- 今天股民忙着打4000点保卫战，债农则忙着追涨杀跌。早间利率上行，空头：油价上涨，通胀预期升温！上午利率下行，多头：战事升级，衰退预期升 温！午后利率上行，空头：股市、黄金、比特币齐跳水，"流动性危机"来了！ 要说尾盘利率上行，央妈也有"助攻"。最新表述：综合运用存款准备金率等工具；此前表述：灵活高效运用降准降息等工具。好比之前说：改天请你吃饭 喝酒。现在变成了：改天请你吃饭。尽管你从不指望她请 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market cannot remain in a state of euphoria indefinitely; even in a bull market, there needs to be a period of rest and adaptation to new market heights, suggesting that the market may be experiencing fatigue with the previous bullish logic and is waiting for the next narrative or story [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The Shanghai Composite Index (沪指) has halted its 17-day consecutive rise, indicating a potential adjustment phase [5] - The marginal contraction of the funding environment is noted, with the People's Bank of China conducting a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 358.6 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 257.6 billion yuan [3] - The interbank funding rates are stable, with DR001 slightly rising to approximately 1.33% and DR007 around 1.49% [3] Group 2: Bond Market - The bond market is experiencing fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield starting at 1.8525% and fluctuating throughout the day [5] - The sentiment in the bond market remains stable, with the 30-year government bond yield showing cautious movements [6] - The bond market strategy includes a "barbell strategy" where investors are buying both bonds and technology stocks, betting on future market movements [6]