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金价走高抑制印度市场需求
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-09-21 21:53
为了提振黄金市场需求,印度商家们已经行动起来,力促节日消费水平维持此前水准。为了对冲需求不 足,印度黄金珠宝商加速自身产品的结构性调整。例如,18K金饰(纯度75%)市场份额从5%至7%跃 升至15%以上,价格较传统22K黄金低20%,以此迎合年轻消费者在婚庆刚需上的"轻量化"需求。 在印度约有三分之二的黄金需求由广大的农村市场驱动,而近期由于高关税的影响,印度农民收入水平 和未来前景难言乐观,该人群对黄金需求下降给整体市场行情造成了明显影响。在此背景下,消费者行 为呈现结构性调整:非必要首饰消费大幅萎缩,婚庆刚需黄金饰品呈轻量化设计及以旧换新态势。金属 市场研究机构金属聚焦公司(Metals Focus)发布的报告显示,今年一季度,在印度首饰消费中,以旧 换新占比高达60%。 与此同时,受金价持续走高影响,过去几周印度的消费者在投资属性上情绪提升。数据显示,今年一季 度,印度黄金交易型开放式证券投资基金规模接近1600亿元,较年初增长明显,反映出投资者对黄金的 长期配置意愿。世界黄金协会印度区首席执行官萨钦·贾恩指出,"即使实物量下降,印度的黄金需求仍 将高于去年"。他补充称,印度的投资需求,尤其是对黄金交 ...
金价太疯狂,印度黄金需求旺季恐遇冷!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-15 09:29
Core Insights - India's gold demand during the festival season is expected to be weaker than last year due to record-high gold prices, which may suppress jewelry purchases and offset moderate growth in investment demand [1] - The decline in gold demand in India, the world's second-largest gold consumer, could limit the recent surge in global gold prices [1] - Despite high gold prices, investment demand, particularly for gold ETFs, has been rising, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards long-term investment in gold [2] Group 1: Gold Demand Trends - Gold prices in India reached a historic peak of 109,840 rupees per 10 grams, up 42% year-to-date, with a 21% increase projected for 2024 [1] - Consumer budgets are fixed, making it difficult to keep up with rising gold prices, leading to an expected decline in physical demand by approximately 10%-15% [1] - The fourth quarter typically accounts for one-third of India's gold sales, driven by wedding season and festivals, with 2024 demand reaching 265.8 tons due to price corrections [1] Group 2: Investment Demand and Consumer Behavior - Investment demand, especially for gold ETFs, has been increasing, with the ETF size in India approaching 160 billion rupees in Q1 2025, reflecting a strong long-term allocation willingness [2] - Structural changes in consumer behavior are evident, with a significant decline in non-essential jewelry purchases, while wedding-related demand is maintained through lightweight designs and trade-in options [2] - The share of trade-in jewelry consumption reached 60% in Q1 2025, with retailers offering installment payment plans to ease budget constraints [2] Group 3: Retail Market Challenges - Recent tax relief measures may partially boost retail demand, but the benefits of tax cuts have already been largely realized in 2024, leading to a 27% year-on-year decline in gold imports from January to May 2025 [3] - Retail jewelry consumption fell by 25% year-on-year to 71 tons in Q1 2025, marking the lowest level since 2020, with southern markets experiencing a similar decline [3] - Jewelers are adjusting product structures, increasing the market share of 18K gold jewelry from 5%-7% to over 15%, appealing to younger consumers seeking fashion and value [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The World Gold Council predicts that if gold prices exceed $3,000 per ounce, India's total gold demand may drop to 700 tons in 2025, the lowest in four years [4] - Some institutions remain optimistic, suggesting that as consumers adapt to high gold prices and with favorable monsoon conditions, demand may rebound by 5%-10% in the fourth quarter [4] - The decline in India's gold import demand may limit global gold price increases, but central bank purchases could provide long-term support for prices [5]
MetalsFocus:印度黄金首饰需求是否会回升?
智通财经网· 2025-05-27 11:45
智通财经APP获悉,MetalsFocus发布报告称,2025年迄今黄金表现极为强劲,以美元和印度卢比(以及 其他货币)计价的金价都迭创历史新高。尤其引人注目的是,4月后期印度国内金价涨破100,000卢比/10 克(含商品及服务税),之后短暂回调,撰写该报告之时5月初已重返该重要心理关口下方。金价持续走 强已导致消费者的黄金首饰购买力下降。有鉴于此,MetalsFocus认为印度市场上18K金饰和较低克重金 饰可能会加速渗透。 首先来看金价涨至创纪录高位对需求的影响,2025年一季度印度黄金首饰消费量同比下降25%,至71 吨,创出2020年三季度以来单季消费量的新低。由于消费者购买首饰的预算通常为固定预算,金价涨至 创纪录高位意味着可购买的金饰重量下降。此外,金价涨速很快,存在近期回落的预期,也促使印度消 费者暂缓购买金饰。 消费者用于购买低价位或日常佩戴首饰的非必需品支出降幅尤其大。相比之下,婚礼相关首饰购买量则 更具韧性,反映出婚礼首饰为刚性需求,不可能长期推迟购买。除零售店客流量明显下降外,越来越多 的印度消费者因零售商提供颇具吸引力的换购方案,选择以旧首饰换购新首饰。MetalsFocus的估算显 ...