| [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 5,257 | 5,358 | 5,463 | 5,825 | 6,467 | | 同比（%） | 12.98 | 1.91 | 1.97 | 6.63 | 11.01 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 665.94 | 787.10 | 880.40 | 996.63 | 1,175.65 | | 同比（%） | (5.89) | 18.19 | 11.85 | 13.20 | 17.96 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.73 | 0.86 | 0.96 | 1.09 | 1.29 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 23.49 | 19.87 | 17.77 | 15.70 | 13.31 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 老白干酒（600559） 秉节持重，厚积薄发 2025 年 05 月 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 老白干酒（600559） 秉节持重，厚积薄发 2025 年 05 月 25 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 5,257 | 5,358 | 5,463 | 5,825 | 6,467 | | 同比（%） | 12.98 | 1.91 | 1.97 | 6.63 | 11.01 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 665.94 | 787.10 | 880.40 | 996.63 | 1,175.65 | | 同比（%） | (5.89) | 18.19 | 11.85 | 13.20 | 17.96 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.73 | 0.86 | 0.96 | 1.09 | 1.29 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 23.49 | 19.87 | 17.77 | 15.70 | 13.31 | [Table_Tag] [Table_S ...

近日我们参加老白干酒股东大会，就2024 年公司经营情况、2025 年公司经营规划等与管理层进行交 流，核心总结如下： 推进费用精细化管理，费投结构向C 端转型。公司持续推进精细化费用管理，通过优化费用投放结构与 绩效考核体系，提升费用使用效率。销售费用和管理费用整体聚焦"精准投入、直投C 端"的策略方向， 弱化渠道端粗放式投放，强化消费者触达与终端拉动的实际成效。C 端倾斜对于销售人员队伍整体素质 与品牌触达的响应能力提出更高要求，预计人员费用将维持上升趋势。同时当前公司处于高端化品牌形 象建设期，产品升级提升成本+品牌培育期持续市场投放下，毛利率预计中短期维稳或微升。长期来 看，随着升级产品占比提升及品牌力加强带来的规模效应，叠加费用端费效比持续提升，公司整体净利 率水平具备改善空间。 多品牌协同推进全国化布局，持续渠道去库维持稳态运营。公司以本部老白干销售为基石，推进多品牌 协同发展，形成"核心品牌夯实+区域品牌突破"的格局。旗下武陵酒持续推进圈层营销与短链直销模 式，24 年实现双位数增长，全国化拓展进程加速，短链模式下渠道库存水平保持低位。 25 年，武陵酒将继续依托品质优势与品牌积淀，对并对产品线 ...

Core Viewpoint - The revenue growth of Laobai Gan liquor has significantly declined, with a 2024 revenue of 5.36 billion yuan, a mere 1.91% increase year-on-year, raising concerns about the sustainability of profit growth despite a net profit increase of 18.19% [2][4][5] Financial Performance - In 2024, Laobai Gan achieved a total revenue of 5.36 billion yuan, up 1.91% from 2023's 5.26 billion yuan, which had a 12.98% growth [3][4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 787 million yuan, reflecting an 18.19% increase compared to 666 million yuan in 2023 [3][4] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 738 million yuan, a 20.12% increase from 614 million yuan in 2023 [3] Revenue Breakdown - The primary sales region for Laobai Gan remains Hebei, generating 3.12 billion yuan in revenue, a 2.61% increase [5] - Other notable revenue contributions include Hunan at 1.10 billion yuan (12.30% growth), Anhui at 550 million yuan (0.53% growth), and Shandong at 210 million yuan (31.39% growth) [5] Product Performance - The core product line, Laobai Gan series, generated 2.59 billion yuan, accounting for 48% of total revenue, with a growth of 9.96% [8] - The Wuling series saw a revenue of 1.10 billion yuan, up 13.30%, while the Kongfu family series grew by 28.12% to 230 million yuan [8] - High-end products priced above 100 yuan generated 2.70 billion yuan, a 5.29% increase, while products priced at or below 100 yuan generated 2.62 billion yuan, a 7.09% increase [8][9] Strategic Challenges - Laobai Gan's struggle to expand its market presence and high-end product sales is attributed to limited geographical reach and insufficient brand recognition [5][7] - The company faces intense competition not only from leading domestic brands but also from local competitors in Hebei [7] - The high pricing strategy for the 1915 series has not translated into significant market traction, highlighting the challenges of positioning as a premium brand [10] Future Outlook - The company's ability to penetrate the high-end market through targeted marketing and the success of its regional strategies will be critical for future growth [12] - Without achieving a revenue scale of 10 billion yuan within the next 3-5 years, Laobai Gan risks falling out of the second-tier market [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Laobai Ganjiu reported a mixed performance in its 2024 financial results, achieving revenue growth but facing challenges in market expansion and high-end product transformation [2][3] Group 2 - Laobai Ganjiu's total revenue for 2024 was 5.358 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.91%, significantly lower than the growth rates of 12.98% in 2023 and 15.54% in 2022, and did not meet the initial target of 5.78 billion yuan for 2024 [2] - The net profit for 2024 was 787 million yuan, reflecting a robust year-on-year growth of 18.19%, primarily driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements [2] - The main revenue contributor was the Hengshui Laobai Gan series, generating 2.59 billion yuan, accounting for 48% of total revenue, while the high-end 1915 series struggled with poor e-commerce sales and limited market acceptance [2] - The Wulingjiu series performed well, with revenue increasing by 13.3% to 1.098 billion yuan and a high gross margin of 81.06%, becoming a key driver of profit growth [2] - Overall gross margin for Laobai Ganjiu declined by 1.21 percentage points to 65.95%, indicating a need for improved cost control and product pricing power [2] Group 3 - In terms of regional markets, Hebei remained the primary market for Laobai Ganjiu, contributing 3.118 billion yuan in revenue, which accounted for nearly 60% of total revenue, but with a modest growth rate of 2.61% [3] - The Hunan market showed strong performance due to Wulingjiu, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 12.3%, although the number of distributors decreased by 230, indicating ongoing channel adjustments [3] - The Shandong market had the highest growth rate at 31.39%, but its small base indicates that national expansion remains a significant challenge [3] - Operating cash flow for Laobai Ganjiu decreased by 32.63% year-on-year, raising concerns about the quality of earnings despite revenue growth [3] - For 2025, Laobai Ganjiu set a cautious revenue target of 5.47 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of only 2.1%, highlighting the challenges in achieving sustainable growth amid sluggish high-end product sales and regional market slowdowns [3]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.358 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 787 million yuan, up 18.2% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its product structure, particularly in the high-end segment, which has shown significant growth [1][4] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.270 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 231 million yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.168 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 152 million yuan, up 11.9% year-on-year [1] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 65.95%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a gross margin of 68.58%, an increase of 5.86 percentage points year-on-year [3] Product and Brand Performance - The company’s products priced above 100 yuan showed strong growth, with revenues of 2.704 billion yuan for 2024, up 5.3% year-on-year, and 661 million yuan for Q1 2025, up 25.5% year-on-year [1] - The company’s brands, including Wuling and Kongfu Family, showed varied performance, with Kongfu Family achieving a revenue increase of 28.1% year-on-year [2] Cost Management and Efficiency - The company has implemented cost control measures, resulting in a decrease in sales and management expense ratios for 2024 [3] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 14.69%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a net profit margin of 13.05%, up 1.0 percentage point year-on-year [3] Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve total revenues of 5.664 billion yuan and 6.188 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.7% and 9.3% [4] - The company is focusing on long-term development and product structure enhancement, particularly in the high-end market segment [4]

4月26日，以"商报四秩.国脉同行"为主题的中国商报社产业服务活动启动暨地方美食好物进京推介会在北京举行。活动汇聚全国多地特色产业代表，江西遂 川县狗牯脑茶作为地方名茶代表之一，在推介会上展现千年茶韵与现代产业发展的深度融合，引发广泛关注。 守千年匠心铸茶业新篇 在"地方美食好物进京"推介环节中，江西遂川县农业农村局党委委员、狗牯脑茶业集团有限公司总经理肖水凤以"传承千年茶韵.赋能乡村振兴"为主题，向 与会嘉宾介绍了狗牯脑茶的历史底蕴与产业实践。她提到，遂川不仅是井冈山革命根据地的红色热土，更是狗牯脑茶的原乡。凭借得天独厚的生态优势与百 年非遗工艺，狗牯脑茶以"外形紧结、香气清雅、汤色明亮"的独特品质闻名，曾获巴拿马万国博览会金奖、上海世博会金奖等国际荣誉，品牌价值达47.51 亿元。 肖水凤重点阐述了遂川县"以茶立县"的战略布局。作为国有全资控股企业，江西狗牯脑茶业集团有限公司通过"1+N+X"模式整合产业链资源，建成智能化无 尘生产车间，开发绿茶、红茶及茶衍生品，并依托"联企、联村、联社、联农"机制，带动全县30.31万亩茶园提质增效，助力茶农增收与乡村振兴。 科技赋能创新驱动 活动现场展示了狗牯脑茶的系 ...

智通财经记者 | 武冰聪 智通财经编辑 | 牙韩翔 4月25日晚，老白干酒披露2024年年报，该公司实现营收53.58亿元，同比增长1.9%；实现归母净利润 7.87亿元，同比增长18%。 财报指出，老白干酒2024年年利润增长主要原因有两方面，一方面是优化产品结构，高中档酒销售收入 增加，另一方面是持续开展降本增效活动，降低费销比和各项费用，盈利水平不断提升。 值得注意的是，在通过降本拉高了净利润的同时，老白干酒2024年全年营收未达预期。老白干酒曾定下 2024年计划实现营收57.8亿元的营收目标。但2024年，其实现营收53.58亿元，同比仅增长1.91%。 回顾以往，2021年—2023年，老白干酒营收分别为40.27亿元、46.53亿元、52.57亿元，期间增速 11.93%、15.54%、12.98%，均保持两位数增长，2024年的表现明显不如以往。 老白干营收增速放缓与几方面原因有关，首先是高端化增长有限。以价格带来对产品进行区分，该公司 去年100元以上产品收入27亿元，同比增长5.29%，100元以下产品收入26亿元，同比增长7.09%，中低 端产品的收入增幅更为明显。 根据财报资料，该公司 ...