新华财经北京2月24日电（王菁）随着春节假期结束，债券市场正式步入丙午马年的交易时段。尽管节 前在央行流动性呵护下，10年期国债收益率一度下破1.8%的关键点位，但节后市场正面临超2.7万亿元 公开市场到期、税期与跨月重叠等多重因素的考验。 超2.7万亿资金回笼压境，流动性能否平稳"过关"？ 春节后首个交易周，市场即将迎来流动性的"压力测试"。多位市场分析人士指出，本周公开市场到期规 模创下近年新高，叠加税期走款等因素，资金面难免出现波澜。 近日，新华财经综合多家机构观点后发现，虽然节后资金面难免承压，但投资者对债市后市并不悲 观，"逢调整布局"、"继续保持多头思维"成为主流策略。 华西证券研究所首席经济学家刘郁测算，2月24日至28日，央行公开市场操作合计到期27024亿元，为 2019年以来节后首周到期规模的最高点。其中，仅节后前两个交易日的到期规模就分别高达14524亿元 和8500亿元。具体来看，7天逆回购到期8524亿元，14天逆回购到期14000亿元；MLF到期3000亿元； 国库定存到期1500亿元。 除了公开市场到期的"洪峰"，税期与跨月的重叠也是扰动因素之一。受春节假期影响，2月税期申报截 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the fixed income market dynamics and government bond issuance in China, particularly focusing on the year-end market conditions and projections for 2026. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Conditions**: The year-end market in 2025 is characterized by a pure allocation strategy, primarily driven by insurance companies and large banks, with low trading activity. Insurance institutions have pre-allocated 30-year local bonds, but as yields decline, their focus has shifted to older government bonds [1][3][4]. - **Liquidity and Borrowing Costs**: The liquidity stratification phenomenon has resulted in high borrowing costs for non-bank institutions, limiting their ability to engage in leveraged trading. Despite a low overnight rate of 1.25%, these institutions face challenges in participating in short-term market activities [2][4][5]. - **Government Bond Issuance**: The National Financial Work Conference has proposed optimizing the government bond tool mix, indicating potential for more diversified and flexible government bond products to meet varying investor needs and enhance market liquidity and efficiency [1][6]. - **Fiscal Strategy**: The focus of fiscal policy is on effective fund utilization through bond issuance rather than on market interest rate risks. Central fiscal measures may include transfer payments to alleviate local fiscal pressures and promote physical investments [1][8]. - **Bond Issuance Timeline**: The issuance of government bonds will not significantly change due to market absorption capacity. It is expected that the issuance of ultra-long bonds (10 years and above) in 2026 will remain no less than 6.5 trillion yuan, indicating limited overall impact [1][9]. Additional Important Content - **Communication Between Fiscal and Central Bank**: There exists a communication mechanism between the fiscal authority and the central bank, which influences the issuance of long-term bonds. A high volume of ultra-long bond issuance suggests central bank support, while a reduction in issuance may indicate limited backing [1][11]. - **Future Market Logic**: The market logic is expected to change significantly entering 2026, with large banks shifting focus to credit work and an increase in local bond supply. This necessitates a reassessment of market conditions and investment strategies [1][5][12]. - **Temporary Measures for Interest Rate Risks**: Current measures to address interest rate risks are not systemic and include increasing bond issuance and targeted central bank support. These are seen as short-term solutions rather than long-term strategies [1][10].