报告导读： ONRRP 类工具的影响以及双向隔夜回购的逻辑。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 如何理解ONRRP类工具与双向隔夜回购；报告日期：2026.01.30；报告作者： 唐元懋（分析师），登记编号：S0880524040002 杜润琛（分析师），登记编号：S0880525110004 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 从近两年货币政策迭代的思路看，目标是朝着进一步降低资金利率的波动以及资金分层，如果新设面向非银机构的工具，方向大概率是投放而非回笼。 此前 央行也已经在多个场合表述"特定情景下向非银机构提供流动性的机制安排"。最先是潘行长在 2025 年 10 月的金融街论坛年会上提到"探索在特定情景下向 非银机构提供流动性的机制安排"， ...

本报告导读： ONRRP 类工具的影响以及双向隔夜回购的逻辑。 投资要点： 配置力度不减，高久期偏好更趋明确 2026.01.27 人民币升值结汇如何影响银行间流动性 2026.01.25 固收加锐不可当，延续增长 2026.01.23 带"负久期"特征的基金产品平均超额收益再测 算 2026.01.19 债 券 研 究 如何理解 ONRRP 类工具与双向隔夜回购 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.30 | 专 | | --- | | 题 | | 研 | 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 究 0755-23976753 tangyuanmao@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880524040002 杜润琛(分析师) 021-38031034 durunchen@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880525110004 | 1. | | ONRRP | 类工具和双向隔夜回购可能有何影响 错误!未定义书签。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1.1. | 关于 | ONRRP 类工具的猜想 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the fixed income market dynamics and government bond issuance in China, particularly focusing on the year-end market conditions and projections for 2026. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Conditions**: The year-end market in 2025 is characterized by a pure allocation strategy, primarily driven by insurance companies and large banks, with low trading activity. Insurance institutions have pre-allocated 30-year local bonds, but as yields decline, their focus has shifted to older government bonds [1][3][4]. - **Liquidity and Borrowing Costs**: The liquidity stratification phenomenon has resulted in high borrowing costs for non-bank institutions, limiting their ability to engage in leveraged trading. Despite a low overnight rate of 1.25%, these institutions face challenges in participating in short-term market activities [2][4][5]. - **Government Bond Issuance**: The National Financial Work Conference has proposed optimizing the government bond tool mix, indicating potential for more diversified and flexible government bond products to meet varying investor needs and enhance market liquidity and efficiency [1][6]. - **Fiscal Strategy**: The focus of fiscal policy is on effective fund utilization through bond issuance rather than on market interest rate risks. Central fiscal measures may include transfer payments to alleviate local fiscal pressures and promote physical investments [1][8]. - **Bond Issuance Timeline**: The issuance of government bonds will not significantly change due to market absorption capacity. It is expected that the issuance of ultra-long bonds (10 years and above) in 2026 will remain no less than 6.5 trillion yuan, indicating limited overall impact [1][9]. Additional Important Content - **Communication Between Fiscal and Central Bank**: There exists a communication mechanism between the fiscal authority and the central bank, which influences the issuance of long-term bonds. A high volume of ultra-long bond issuance suggests central bank support, while a reduction in issuance may indicate limited backing [1][11]. - **Future Market Logic**: The market logic is expected to change significantly entering 2026, with large banks shifting focus to credit work and an increase in local bond supply. This necessitates a reassessment of market conditions and investment strategies [1][5][12]. - **Temporary Measures for Interest Rate Risks**: Current measures to address interest rate risks are not systemic and include increasing bond issuance and targeted central bank support. These are seen as short-term solutions rather than long-term strategies [1][10].

Core Insights - The narrative illustrates the financial struggles of an individual facing mounting expenses for education and healthcare, leading to risky investment decisions in the stock market [2][3] - The story highlights the transition from high-risk stock trading to more stable and reliable investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of financial security over speculative gains [4][6] Investment Behavior - Initially, the individual was drawn to stock trading after hearing about significant returns from a colleague, leading to a substantial investment of 320,000 yuan [2] - The initial success in stock trading resulted in a profit of 27,000 yuan in the first month, which created a false sense of security [3] - A sudden market downturn caused by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut led to significant losses, prompting a family crisis over the mismanagement of funds [3][4] Financial Strategy Shift - Following advice from a neighbor, the individual shifted to a more conservative investment approach, focusing on diversified and low-risk financial products [4][5] - The new strategy included splitting remaining funds into different categories: 30,000 yuan for daily expenses in a high-yield savings account, 100,000 yuan in government bonds for education expenses, and 50,000 yuan in short-term bond funds [4] - The individual also discovered a short-term investment opportunity with a brokerage offering a 4.5% annualized return, which was seen as a favorable option [5] Market Trends - The narrative reflects a broader trend in the financial market where individuals are moving away from high-risk investments towards safer, more stable options, as evidenced by the growth of bank wealth management products and public funds [4][6] - The emphasis on financial prudence and the avoidance of high-risk products is underscored by the character's realization that financial security is paramount for managing family expenses [6] Conclusion - The story concludes with a sense of stability and peace of mind achieved through careful financial planning and investment, contrasting the earlier thrill of speculative trading [6]