Workflow
500ml 飞天茅台
icon
Search documents
贵州茅台(600519):i茅台强化消费者触达,市场化改革加速
CMS· 2026-01-12 03:05
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai [2][7] Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai has enhanced consumer reach through the launch of its i Moutai platform, addressing consumer pain points and establishing a four-dimensional channel system that benefits government, company, shareholders, distributors, and consumers [1][6] - The company is experiencing strong demand as it approaches the Spring Festival, with low channel inventory levels, which supports the ongoing market reform and cash returns [1][6][7] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report reiterates a "Strong Buy" rating, indicating confidence in the company's growth potential and market performance [2][7] Company Strategy - The launch of 500ml Flying Moutai and premium products on the i Moutai platform aims to improve consumer access and address the mismatch between supply and demand [6] - The new sales model combines self-sale, distribution, agency, and consignment, creating a win-win situation for all stakeholders involved [6] Market Dynamics - The i Moutai platform is expected to strengthen pricing power and mitigate concerns over wholesale price fluctuations, as it provides a reliable price benchmark for consumers [6] - Current market conditions show robust consumer demand, particularly among younger demographics, with low inventory levels reported across various sales channels [6][7] Financial Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 71.54, 73.49, and 76.96 yuan respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19x for 2026 [7][10] - Revenue and net profit are projected to grow steadily, with total revenue expected to reach 182.49 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5% [10][19]
食品饮料行业周报:茅台定调投放量总体稳定,食品加大顺周期布局-20251229
CMS· 2025-12-29 02:33
证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 29 日 茅台定调投放量总体稳定,食品加大顺周期布局 食品饮料行业周报(12.28) 消费品/食品饮料 本周茅台经销商大会召开,26 年投放量定调总体平稳,减少高附加值产品投入 量,从以产定销到以销定产、分销取消。老窖在临时股东会上表示,国窖价格 管控将继续克制,26Q1 可能是行业重点调整窗口,公司将延续理性。我们预 计茅台 26 年量增落在持平-小个位数区间,叠加新兴渠道挖潜激发大众购酒需 求,供需关系相比 25 年有望显著改善。大众品板块加大顺周期板块布局。乳 制品随着供给有序去化+深加工需求逐步释放,明年奶价拐点确定性提升,牧 场之后看好 26 年龙头乳企在业绩修复+股息支撑的估值中枢抬升。仙乐 BF 个 护业务剥离在即,26 年业绩低基数下弹性高、建议结合季度节奏布局。 ❑ 核心公司跟踪:茅台定调投放量总体稳定,国窖价格管控克制。 贵州茅台:定调投放量总体稳定,26 年以销定产。茅台全国经销商联谊 会在贵阳召开,公司指出 25 年存在产品动销循环不畅、渠道转型动能不 足、"市场化"转型配套支撑不足三大问题,为此 26 年公司 1)维护量 价动态 ...