周林生 大年初八，开工吉日。当岭南大地仍沉浸在年味中时，广东政商学界的"最强大脑"将齐聚广州，参加广 东省高质量发展大会。这是新春第一会，背后是深植于经济大省骨子里的紧迫感与使命感。 作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，2026年，广东要往哪里冲?怎么冲?在大会召开前夕，南方都市报记者专 访了广东省"十五五"发展规划专家委员会委员、广东省体制改革研究会会长周林生。这位长期观察广东 改革的资深专家，从历史纵深、改革逻辑和全球视野三个维度，解读了2026年广东高质量发展的深意与 新局。 外部环境复杂化、内部转型 2026广东怎么"顶上去" "十五五应该说是一个非常关键的时期。"采访伊始，周林生便点明了2026年特殊的时代背景。在他看 来，广东此时面临的挑战与机遇是多维度的:国际上，外部环境复杂化；国内，疫情后的经济复苏仍需 巩固，而一场以智能化为核心的智能革命正席卷全球。 "我们处在一个非常关键的历史时期，2035年要基本实现现代化。"周林生说。 在这样一个历史交汇点，广东为何连续三年在初八"开工"?周林生认为，这首先源于广东在全国改革发 展大局中无可替代的体量与使命。 "广东的经济社会体量已经非常之大，GDP去年是1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moutai's recent market-oriented reforms have led to significant increases in consumer demand and sales across various channels, demonstrating the effectiveness of its strategy to engage directly with consumers and adapt to market needs [2][25][30] Group 1: Consumer Demand and Sales Performance - Moutai's self-operated store in Chongqing reported a 41% year-on-year increase in foot traffic since early January, with peak daily visits reaching around 300 [1][7] - The iMoutai platform saw over 15.31 million active users in January, with 6.28 million new registrations and over 2.12 million orders, including more than 1.43 million for the 500ml Flying Moutai [3][5] - The overall sales of Moutai products have been robust, with many stores reporting supply shortages and increased consumer inquiries [3][13] Group 2: Market Strategy and Reforms - Moutai's market-oriented reforms initiated in January 2026 focus on a consumer-centric approach, enhancing product availability, pricing, and service [1][4][19] - The company has implemented a "pyramid" product strategy, emphasizing the 500ml Flying Moutai as the core product while diversifying offerings to include premium and collectible items [17][19] - Moutai's pricing strategy aims for stability and alignment with market demand, avoiding drastic price cuts while selectively increasing prices for certain products [19][28] Group 3: Channel and Service Enhancements - Moutai is transitioning to a multi-channel marketing system that includes self-sale, distribution, consignment, and agency sales, enhancing overall market penetration [21][29] - The company has improved customer service by expanding its customer support team and implementing AI systems to handle increased demand [24][23] - Moutai's stores are enhancing the customer experience by providing tasting areas and personalized service, which has attracted new customers and increased sales of other products [9][10][12] Group 4: Long-term Implications and Industry Position - Moutai's proactive approach to market reforms is seen as a strategic shift that not only boosts sales but also addresses long-term consumer demand, positioning the brand as a leader in the premium beverage market [27][30] - The company's ability to adapt to consumer needs and optimize its supply chain is expected to solidify its market position and serve as a model for other companies in the industry [25][30]

"最近确实很忙，你看这些箱子都是刚到的货，店里都快摆不下了。" 茅台重庆渝中自营门店的熊林经理一边和电话那头的客户确认购酒需求，一边向进店咨询的笔者打招呼。 1月30日，重庆小雨。位于解放碑商圈的贵州茅台（600519）重庆渝中自营门店上午刚一开门，便迎来了络绎不绝的顾客。很多消费者是前来提取在i茅台 申购成功的飞天53%vol 500ml贵州茅台酒（即大众所说的53度飞天茅台），也有不少人是咨询、购买其他茅台产品。 笔者在现场看到，店里有几十箱各类茅台产品刚刚到货，几乎摆满了过道，等待顾客提货或送货上门。笔者在前台仅仅观察十分钟左右，就有十几名顾客 进店提货。 "最近是春节前夕，需求确实非常旺盛，1月初以来我们门店的到店人次同比增加了41%，单日最高到店300人左右。"熊经理介绍。 2026年1月，茅台拉开了一场"以消费者为中心"的全面市场化改革，在产品、价格、渠道、服务等方面推出多项重要改革举措，目的是让消费者可以公 平、便捷、保真购酒。 对于普通消费者而言，茅台今年的市场化改革，最容易感知到的便是有机会以1499元/瓶的价格在i茅台上申购到53度飞天茅台。 2026年1月1日，53度500ml飞天茅台等 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful implementation of a consumer-centric market reform by Kweichow Moutai, which has led to increased demand and sales across various channels, demonstrating the effectiveness of the company's strategic adjustments in response to market needs [1][2][11]. Group 1: Market Demand and Sales Performance - Kweichow Moutai's self-operated store in Chongqing reported a 41% year-on-year increase in customer visits since early January, with peak daily visits reaching around 300 [1][4]. - The online platform iMoutai saw over 15.31 million monthly active users in January, with 628,000 new registrations and over 212,000 orders, indicating strong consumer engagement [3][5]. - The sales of various Moutai products, including the flagship 53% vol 500ml Flying Moutai, have been robust, with many stores reporting supply shortages due to high demand [2][10]. Group 2: Strategic Reforms and Consumer Engagement - Kweichow Moutai initiated a comprehensive market reform in January 2026, focusing on product, pricing, channel, and service improvements to enhance consumer purchasing experiences [1][12]. - The company adopted a "pyramid" product strategy, emphasizing the 500ml Flying Moutai as the base, while activating demand for premium products and maintaining high-end brand value [13][15]. - The pricing strategy has been adjusted to reflect market realities, with some products seeing price increases to enhance brand value, while others are priced competitively to attract consumers [15][19]. Group 3: Channel Strategy and Distribution - Moutai is transitioning its distribution model from "self-sale + distribution" to a four-dimensional collaborative marketing system that includes self-sale, distribution, consignment, and consignment sales [16][21]. - The self-operated channel serves as a price stabilizer, ensuring that prices across various channels are aligned with the self-sale retail price [16][21]. - The company has improved its logistics and distribution efficiency, with 75% of users receiving their orders within five days, reflecting enhanced operational capabilities [18]. Group 4: Consumer Experience and Feedback - The market reform has led to positive consumer feedback, with many appreciating the easier access to Moutai products and faster response to demand [17][19]. - The company has implemented various customer service enhancements, including proactive communication with consumers regarding order pickups and product inquiries [9][18]. - Moutai's approach to engaging with new consumer segments, including international tourists, has broadened its market reach and increased brand visibility [8][9].

股 票 研 究 市场化改革及财富管理引领，ROE 向上拐点 兴业证券(601377) 兴业证券更新报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 吴浩东(分析师) | 010-83939780 | wuhaodong@gtht.com | S0880524070001 | 本报告导读： 公司当前推进市场化改革，有望进一步发挥财富管理优势，ROE迎来向上拐点，维 持"增持"评级。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 10,627 | 12,354 | 12,207 | 13,994 | 15,255 | | (+/-)% | -0.3% | 16.2% | -1.2% | 14.6% | ...

市场化改革及财富管理引领，ROE 向上拐点 兴业证券(601377) 兴业证券更新报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 吴浩东(分析师) | 010-83939780 | wuhaodong@gtht.com | S0880524070001 | 本报告导读： 公司当前推进市场化改革，有望进一步发挥财富管理优势，ROE迎来向上拐点，维 持"增持"评级。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 10,627 | 12,354 | 12,207 | 13,994 | 15,255 | | (+/-)% | -0.3% | 16.2% | -1.2% | 14.6% | ...

消息面上，茅台市场化改革初现成效，核心单品销量放量与价格韧性并现。i茅台发布1月月报，143万 笔飞天订单亮眼，C端渠道释放大众需求，叠加春节消费旺季窗口，飞天茅台动销表现超市场预期，也 为全年量价节奏调控奠定基础。 2月4日午后，贵州茅台（600519）股价继续上行，一度涨近4%，继2025年9月之后，首次重回1500元/ 股上方，盘中最高报1533元/股。 具体来看，目前飞天茅台批价围绕1500元/瓶附近震荡，该价位已逐步成为厂商、渠道与消费者之间的 共识区间。该机构维持茅台目标价1860元，对应26/27年25.8/25.4倍P/E，现价对应26/27年19.8/19.5倍 P/E，有30.34%上行空间。 白酒反弹之余，也可以关注大众食品的渐次修复机会，如食品ETF华夏(159151.SZ)，不含白酒，聚焦乳 业/啤酒/调味品/软饮料等大众食品细分领域龙头(如伊利股份（600887）、海天味业（603288）、中粮 糖业（600737）、安琪酵母（600298）、双汇发展（000895）等)，业绩风险基本释放，底层刚需韧性 强。 中金公司（601995）食品饮料分析师最新点评称："飞天茅台价格筑底信号 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for Moutai during the Spring Festival exceeded expectations, leading to a rapid recovery in wholesale prices. The price of Moutai increased from 1610 RMB to 1710 RMB within two days, indicating a strong upward trend [3] - The industry is currently at a low valuation, with pessimistic expectations fully priced in. A weak recovery in demand is anticipated as policy pressures ease, and the industry is expected to undergo a clearer phase of performance improvement [2] - The report highlights that the white liquor sector is showing signs of recovery, with leading companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu being recommended for their stable pricing and attractive dividend yields [2] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry increased by 1.56% in the week of January 26-30, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which decreased by 0.44%. The white liquor sector led the gains with a 3.86% increase [3][8] - The report notes a significant divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with snacks and health products experiencing declines of 6.07% and 5.59%, respectively [3] Moutai's Market Dynamics - Moutai's management is pushing for market-oriented reforms, reducing the supply of non-standard products and eliminating bundled sales, which has alleviated pressure on distributors and reduced channel selling pressure [3] - The demand side is benefiting from concentrated gift-giving during the Spring Festival, alongside the expansion of the i Moutai channel, which allows consumers to purchase at fair prices, leading to sustained incremental demand [3] Fund Allocation Trends - The allocation of active equity funds in the food and beverage sector has decreased slightly to 4.1%, with a notable reduction in white liquor holdings. However, there is a marginal increase in allocations towards consumer goods, indicating a search for more certain and better-valued targets within the consumption sector [3]

截至1月30日，细分食品指数最新PE-TTM仅19倍，位于近十年2.91%分位数，也就是说比历史上98%时 间都要"便宜"，处于极度低估区域。场外投资者也可以关注其联接基金。 2月2日，贵州茅台再度放量大涨，盘中一度涨近4%，近三日涨超9%。白酒板块跟随大涨，水井坊冲击 涨停，山西汾酒、五粮液涨3%。1月29日，贵州茅台单日曾大涨8.6%，成交额达263亿元，同时飞天批 价上行，一度突破1710元引发市场关注。尽管周末批价回落，但从股价反应来看，并未影响市场乐观情 绪。 长江证券最新观点表示："在本轮调整期中，茅台凭借自身的量价策略，成功扩大了消费群体，随着终 端需求的改善，茅台将最先迎来业绩的爆发。"该机构看好本次市场化改革将重塑茅台公司产品体系、 渠道体系，为公司长期健康增长夯实基础。 食品饮料ETF持有贵州茅台仓位17%，相比纯酒类ETF，食品饮料ETF更聚焦一二线优质白酒，如贵州 茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、泸州老窖、水井坊、舍得酒业等，在行业周期底部更具韧性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increases of Moutai products are driven by a combination of seasonal demand and the company's market-oriented reforms, which include a shift from a fixed pricing system to a dynamic pricing mechanism [5][11]. Group 1: Price Trends - The price of 2026 Moutai original boxes has reached 1590 yuan per bottle, an increase of 35 yuan from the previous day, while the 2025 Moutai original boxes are priced at 1600 yuan, also up by 35 yuan [3]. - The price of non-standard products, such as the Year of the Horse Moutai classic version, has seen significant increases, with a daily rise of 120 yuan, totaling a 400 yuan increase over three days [3]. - The retail price of Moutai at the terminal has stabilized around 1700 yuan per bottle, with the demand for gifts during the Spring Festival being a key factor in this price increase [13]. Group 2: Market Reforms - Moutai is implementing a market-oriented reform that alters its pricing strategy, moving away from the fixed guidance price of 1499 yuan established in 2017 to a flexible pricing model based on market supply and demand [5]. - The company is transitioning its operational model from traditional self-sale and distribution to a multi-dimensional collaboration involving self-sale, distribution, consignment, and agency sales [7]. - Moutai's new model changes the role of distributors, who will now earn fixed commissions rather than holding product ownership, thus altering their profit structure [7]. Group 3: Product Structure and Distribution - Moutai is adjusting its product structure to return to a "pyramid" product system, focusing on the flagship Moutai, with additional offerings like kilogram Moutai and 100ml small Moutai [9]. - The iMoutai platform has increased its product offerings ahead of the Spring Festival, allowing for a daily purchase limit of six bottles of Moutai per person [9]. - The company has expanded its distribution capabilities by adding new shipping warehouses in Nanjing and Beijing to address logistics challenges and improve delivery times [14].