Core Viewpoint - In April 2025, China's exports grew by 8.1% year-on-year, exceeding the 5.8% growth in the first quarter, despite the impact of new U.S. tariffs implemented on April 2 [2][6] Export Performance Analysis - The resilience in exports can be attributed to a 21.0% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S., which, while significant, was better than expected. Exports to ASEAN, India, Africa, and Latin America saw year-on-year growth rates of 20.8%, 21.7%, 25.3%, and 17.3%, respectively, effectively offsetting the decline [2][8][10] - Major export categories showed mixed results, with labor-intensive products like textiles, bags, clothing, and toys experiencing a combined year-on-year decline of 0.8%. Electronics, particularly mobile phones, were significantly affected by tariffs, with year-on-year declines of 21.4% for phones and 1.7% for automatic data processing equipment. Home appliances and furniture also saw low growth rates of -2.9% and -7.8%, respectively. However, automotive exports increased slightly by 4.4%, surpassing the first quarter's 2.2% [2][12][15][16] Competitive Advantage of Chinese Manufacturing - April's export data highlighted the competitiveness and resilience of "Made in China" products. China's manufacturing sector has both scale and efficiency advantages, as evidenced by its global manufacturing value added share of approximately 31% in 2021, compared to the U.S. at 16% and Japan at 6%. The Competitive Industrial Performance (CIP) index shows China ranked second globally in 2021, up from 35th in 1990 [3][17] Caution on Tariff Impact - There is a need for vigilance regarding the impact of tariffs, as the effects may become more pronounced in the coming months. Historical data from 2018 indicates that significant tariff implementations led to delayed impacts on export growth, with a notable decline occurring several months after tariffs were enacted. The April PMI data showed a 4.3-point month-on-month decline in export orders, particularly in textiles, chemicals, and midstream equipment manufacturing, indicating a potential lag in the transmission from orders to delivery [3][18][19] Economic Growth Dynamics - The relationship between growth momentum and stabilization efforts is likened to a seesaw, with current economic conditions suggesting a continued focus on counter-cyclical policies. Despite a strong actual growth rate in the first quarter, nominal growth remains low, with tax revenue and profits from large enterprises showing declines. The government is expected to leverage recent policy measures to stimulate domestic demand and address the ongoing pressures from tariffs [4][20]

Core Viewpoint - The export growth in April 2025 reached 8.1% year-on-year, exceeding expectations despite the impact of new tariffs from the U.S. [1][5][6] Group 1: Export Performance - April's export growth of 8.1% is higher than the 5.8% growth in the first quarter and significantly above the market expectation of 0.6% [5][6] - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 21.0% year-on-year, but this was still better than anticipated [6][7] - Exports to ASEAN, India, Africa, and Latin America showed strong growth rates of 20.8%, 21.7%, 25.3%, and 17.3% respectively, providing a counterbalance to the decline in U.S. exports [8][6] Group 2: Export Product Categories - Labor-intensive products such as textiles, bags, clothing, and toys saw a combined year-on-year decline of 0.8% [9] - Electronics, particularly mobile phones, were significantly affected by tariffs, with exports down 21.4% for phones and 1.7% for automatic data processing equipment [11] - Home appliances and furniture exports also declined, with year-on-year decreases of 2.9% and 7.8% respectively [12] - Automotive exports showed slight improvement, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4% in April, up from 2.2% in the first quarter [13] - Notable growth was observed in several categories: general machinery equipment exports increased by 17.0%, ship exports surged by 36.1%, and integrated circuit exports rose by 20.2% [13][11] Group 3: Competitive Advantage of Chinese Manufacturing - The April export data highlights the competitiveness and resilience of "Made in China" products [13] - China's manufacturing sector has both scale and efficiency advantages, as indicated by its global manufacturing value added share of approximately 31% in 2021, compared to the U.S. at 16% and Japan at 6% [14] - The Competitive Industrial Performance (CIP) index shows that China has improved its ranking from 35th in 1990 to 2nd in 2021, indicating enhanced efficiency [14] Group 4: Tariff Impact and Future Outlook - Caution is advised regarding the potential impact of tariffs, as historical data suggests that the effects may intensify in the coming months [15] - The PMI for April showed a 4.3-point decline in export orders, indicating a slowdown in demand, particularly in textiles, chemicals, and midstream equipment manufacturing [16] - The current growth dynamics suggest a need for policies to stimulate domestic demand, especially in light of the ongoing tariff pressures [17]