证券研究报告 经纬恒润 (688326 CH) 25 年业绩预告扭亏，规模效应凸显 | 泰研: 究 | | --- | | सह | 2026 年 1 月 28 日│中国内地 汽车零部件 公司发布 2025 年年度业绩预盈公告，预计 2025 年年度实现归属于母公 司所有者的净利润与上年同期相比，将实现扭亏为盈，实现归属于母公司所 有者的净利润 0.75 亿元到 1.1 亿元。公司的预盈利润区间下限超过我们此 前预测的 0.66 亿元，我们继续看好公司 2026 年公司规模化效应驱动下的 盈利增长，看好公司 2026 年海外业务落地放量，维持"买入"评级。 2025 回顾：扭亏为盈，研发成果释放与降本增效共同驱动 2025 年公司收入规模的扩大主要受益于前期研发投入的释放，以域控制器 等新产品阵营为代表的核心电子产品实现快速放量，同时原有产品持续迭代 获得更多客户与项目机会，推动整体收入增长。降本增效方面，公司通过 AI 工具优化开发流程、推动国产替代和提升智能制造水平，有效控制各项成本 费用，使毛利率有所提升、期间费用率显著下降，从而对盈利能力改善形成 实质支撑。产品与客户层面，公司电子产品包括区域控制器、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 145.23 RMB [6][4]. Core Views - The company experienced a quarter-on-quarter revenue decline in Q3 2025, attributed to price pressures from downstream customers, but year-on-year revenue growth remains positive [1][2]. - The outlook for Q4 2025 and 2026 is optimistic, particularly in the ADAS and L4 autonomous driving sectors, with expectations for improved profitability driven by cost reduction and efficiency gains [1][3]. Summary by Sections Q3 2025 Performance - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 1.555 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.40% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.57%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.92 million RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 115.52% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 63.89% [1][2]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached 4.464 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.88%, while the net profit was -75.05 million RMB, indicating a year-on-year improvement of 81.70% [2]. Q4 2025 and 2026 Outlook - The company is expected to continue its revenue growth trend into 2026, driven by smart driving electronic products and autonomous driving solutions. Key clients like Geely, Xiaopeng, Xiaomi, and FAW are anticipated to enter stable production phases [3]. - The company aims to enhance profitability through improved R&D efficiency and cost control, with L4 autonomous driving platform products expected to accelerate commercialization [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are maintained at 7.39 billion RMB, 9.53 billion RMB, and 11.68 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits projected at 66.10 million RMB, 361.79 million RMB, and 607.76 million RMB [4][10]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in gross margins, with estimates of 23.9%, 24.8%, and 25.3% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in revenue for 2024, but continued to face losses in net profit, indicating challenges in profitability despite growth in the automotive electronics sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.46%, but reported a net loss of 550 million yuan, which is an expanded loss compared to the previous year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company generated revenue of 1.328 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 49.34%, while the net loss narrowed to 120 million yuan [1][3]. Product Performance - The automotive electronics segment saw robust growth, with revenue from electronic products reaching 4.406 billion yuan in 2023, up 28.89% year-on-year [2]. - The company has begun mass production of key components for new clients such as Xiaomi and Xpeng, contributing to the growth in automotive electronics [2]. Profitability and R&D - The gross margin for 2024 was 21.51%, a decrease of 3.11 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a shift in product mix towards lower-margin automotive electronics [2]. - R&D expenses for 2024 were 1.039 billion yuan, an increase of 7.3% year-on-year, with a R&D expense ratio of 18.8% [2]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 21.4%, showing a slight recovery from the previous quarter, driven by increased sales volume in automotive electronics [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain high revenue growth, with projected revenues of 7.2 billion yuan, 9 billion yuan, and 10.8 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - The company is in a high R&D investment phase, with a target price of 95.8 yuan based on a price-to-sales ratio of 1.6 for 2025 [4].