证券研究报告 经纬恒润 (688326 CH) 25 年业绩预告扭亏，规模效应凸显 | 泰研: 究 | | --- | | सह | 2026 年 1 月 28 日│中国内地 汽车零部件 公司发布 2025 年年度业绩预盈公告，预计 2025 年年度实现归属于母公 司所有者的净利润与上年同期相比，将实现扭亏为盈，实现归属于母公司所 有者的净利润 0.75 亿元到 1.1 亿元。公司的预盈利润区间下限超过我们此 前预测的 0.66 亿元，我们继续看好公司 2026 年公司规模化效应驱动下的 盈利增长，看好公司 2026 年海外业务落地放量，维持"买入"评级。 2025 回顾：扭亏为盈，研发成果释放与降本增效共同驱动 2025 年公司收入规模的扩大主要受益于前期研发投入的释放，以域控制器 等新产品阵营为代表的核心电子产品实现快速放量，同时原有产品持续迭代 获得更多客户与项目机会，推动整体收入增长。降本增效方面，公司通过 AI 工具优化开发流程、推动国产替代和提升智能制造水平，有效控制各项成本 费用，使毛利率有所提升、期间费用率显著下降，从而对盈利能力改善形成 实质支撑。产品与客户层面，公司电子产品包括区域控制器、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 57.70 CNY per share [2]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the line-controlled chassis sector and is expected to play a significant role in the future of humanoid robotics. It has established a comprehensive product layout in braking systems, steering, suspension, control, and structural components, transitioning from traditional mechanical systems to intelligent electric control systems [8][9]. - The company is benefiting from the ongoing trends of electrification and automation in the automotive industry, with a strong focus on global expansion and technological innovation [12][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Line-Controlled Chassis Leadership - The company has developed a robust capability in intelligent chassis systems, with a complete product layout in braking, steering, suspension, and control systems. It has established partnerships with major automotive brands, including both domestic and international clients [21][29]. - The company has made significant advancements in electric control systems, becoming a leader in the domestic market for electronic parking brakes (EPB) and expanding into active suspension systems [24][35]. 2. Technical Capability Building - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with continuous investment leading to a significant increase in its technical capabilities. It has established multiple R&D centers globally, enhancing its innovation capacity [61][66]. - The company has developed a comprehensive product matrix, including lightweight components, electric control systems, and line-controlled chassis, which positions it well for future growth [70]. 3. Transition from Automotive to Robotics - The company is leveraging its extensive experience in the automotive sector to expand into the humanoid robotics market. It has already established subsidiaries focused on key components such as motors and actuators, which are essential for robotics [13][18]. - The global market for humanoid robots is expected to grow significantly, with the company poised to become a key player in this emerging field due to its technological expertise and established supply chain [12][18]. 4. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 12.88 billion CNY in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.6% from 2024 to 2027. Net profit is expected to reach 1.51 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2][52]. - The financial metrics indicate a healthy growth outlook, with improvements in gross margins expected as new products scale up and operational efficiencies are realized [55][58].

Core Viewpoint - The value of a company in the automotive industry is increasingly determined by its ability to reshape the industry ecosystem and define future competitive rules, rather than just capturing current orders. Dongjian Technology (300978) is transitioning from a "product supplier" to a "definer of off-road lifestyle" through its clear "one body, two wings" strategy [1]. Group 1: Basic Business Resilience - The company's basic business, built over 20 years, consists of global modification and OEM supply businesses, showcasing a solid industry position and operational resilience through cycles [1]. - In 2024, the company expects revenue of 2.19 billion yuan and a net profit of 150 million yuan, maintaining profitability despite a complex external environment and achieving a 15.73% year-on-year increase in operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 [1]. - The company has a balanced business structure with two main systems: "global OEM business" and "global automotive modification business" [1]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - The front-end supply business is the fastest-growing segment, with expected revenue of 923 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.04%. This segment has capitalized on the booming market for off-road and pickup vehicles, achieving significant sales growth with key customers [2]. - The modification business, which is the company's original segment, has a wide channel and brand recognition in the global aftermarket, exporting to over 90 countries. Despite short-term industry changes, the company has stabilized its basic business by focusing on core customers and high-growth categories [2]. - The strategic transformation is opening new growth spaces, with the company moving from being a "behind-the-scenes hero" to directly engaging with end consumers through branding and ecosystem development [3]. Group 3: Key Growth Points - The brand strategy has evolved from B2B to B2C, launching three brands: Steelcraft, Winbo, and Manta, targeting different off-road consumer segments. The WINBO brand has entered the domestic market with innovative services like a "3-year warranty" and "trade-in for new" [4]. - The "official modification vehicle" model is creating new market opportunities by collaborating with OEMs to integrate personalized modifications into the vehicle production and sales process, addressing user pain points and sharing new car sales benefits [5]. - The company is enhancing its product categories through technology, with over 600 patents, expanding from traditional exterior parts to high-value electronic categories like electric steps and intelligent cockpit control systems, significantly increasing per-vehicle value and profit margins [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The company's strategic transformation aligns with two major trends: the personalization of automotive consumption and the popularization of off-road culture, positioning Dongjian as a foundational infrastructure provider and ecosystem organizer in this cultural consumption wave [7][8]. - The current stock price reflects short-term challenges from industry price wars and market changes, but this presents an opportunity to assess long-term value. The company demonstrates a strong self-reform capability in response to industry changes, combining manufacturing depth, channel breadth, and brand warmth [9]. - The growth path is clear: short-term focus on the continued expansion of the front-end supply business, medium-term assessment of market acceptance of the three C-end brands and the number of official modification projects, and long-term evaluation of the prosperity of the off-road ecosystem being built [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 145.23 RMB [6][4]. Core Views - The company experienced a quarter-on-quarter revenue decline in Q3 2025, attributed to price pressures from downstream customers, but year-on-year revenue growth remains positive [1][2]. - The outlook for Q4 2025 and 2026 is optimistic, particularly in the ADAS and L4 autonomous driving sectors, with expectations for improved profitability driven by cost reduction and efficiency gains [1][3]. Summary by Sections Q3 2025 Performance - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 1.555 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.40% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.57%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.92 million RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 115.52% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 63.89% [1][2]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached 4.464 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.88%, while the net profit was -75.05 million RMB, indicating a year-on-year improvement of 81.70% [2]. Q4 2025 and 2026 Outlook - The company is expected to continue its revenue growth trend into 2026, driven by smart driving electronic products and autonomous driving solutions. Key clients like Geely, Xiaopeng, Xiaomi, and FAW are anticipated to enter stable production phases [3]. - The company aims to enhance profitability through improved R&D efficiency and cost control, with L4 autonomous driving platform products expected to accelerate commercialization [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are maintained at 7.39 billion RMB, 9.53 billion RMB, and 11.68 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits projected at 66.10 million RMB, 361.79 million RMB, and 607.76 million RMB [4][10]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in gross margins, with estimates of 23.9%, 24.8%, and 25.3% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4].

Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses **Rongtai Co., Ltd.** and its acquisition of **Aodu Electronics**. Aodu Electronics specializes in automotive electric pedals and electric tailgates, rapidly gaining market share in China and becoming a key supplier for major manufacturers like **Seres** and **Li Auto**. [2][5][10] Key Points and Arguments 1. **Investment and Acquisition Strategy** - Rongtai Co., Ltd. invested **40 million yuan** in Aodu Electronics and co-financed **100 million yuan** to mitigate risks and assess growth potential. [2][5] - The acquisition of **51%** of Aodu Electronics aims to expand market presence and achieve resource integration for technological and market synergies. [5][10] 2. **Market Performance and Projections** - Aodu Electronics is projected to achieve **800 million yuan** in sales in **2025**, a significant increase from **200 million yuan** in **2022**. [2][7] - Expected net profit for Aodu Electronics in **2025** is over **60 million yuan**, with sales anticipated to reach at least **1 billion yuan** in **2026**, reflecting a growth rate of no less than **30%** annually for the next two years. [2][10] 3. **International Market Expansion** - Aodu Electronics is actively pursuing international markets, collaborating with companies like **Mercedes-Benz** and **BMW**, with mass production expected to start in **2026**. [2][7][10] - The gross margin for international clients is projected to be **35%**, significantly higher than the domestic market's **28%**. [7] 4. **Technological Capabilities** - Aodu Electronics' motor development capabilities are bolstered by a team of retired experts from **Bosch**, focusing on innovative designs for electric motors used in robots and robotic dogs. [3][16] - Plans to eliminate outsourcing by **2026** and establish a manufacturing facility in North America to meet international demand are underway. [3][18] 5. **Synergies and Resource Integration** - The acquisition is expected to enhance competitive advantages through resource sharing, particularly in entering new markets and accelerating product development. [13][10] - Collaboration on R&D in automotive motors and robotic components is anticipated to improve product performance and reduce costs. [13] 6. **Future Growth and Development Goals** - Aodu Electronics aims to rapidly capture market share by leveraging top-tier global technology teams and establishing overseas production bases for localized service. [21] - The company plans to achieve a production capacity of **100,000 units** by **2026**, addressing both automotive and robotics sectors. [26] Additional Important Information - The acquisition process involves multiple steps, including shareholder approval and compliance with disclosure obligations, expected to be completed by the end of **August**. [14][15] - Aodu Electronics currently derives over **90%** of its revenue from the domestic market, with plans to significantly increase its international sales contribution in the coming years. [11] - The company is also exploring new applications for its products, including planetary rolling screws, with ongoing discussions with major clients like **Tesla** and **BYD**. [25][30] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding Rongtai Co., Ltd.'s strategic acquisition of Aodu Electronics, market expectations, and future growth plans.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing accessibility and adoption of advanced automotive technologies, particularly rear-wheel steering, which was once exclusive to high-end luxury and performance vehicles. Group 1: Technology Accessibility - Many high-end features that were once exclusive to luxury vehicles are now becoming standard in various models, including electric vehicles [1][2] - Technologies such as air suspension and advanced driving assistance systems have seen significant growth in recent years [2] Group 2: Rear-Wheel Steering - Rear-wheel steering, previously found in high-end models like Porsche 911 and Lamborghini Aventador, is now being standard in many domestic electric vehicles at lower price points [5][7] - Examples include models like the Tengshi N9 and Xiaopeng X9, which offer rear-wheel steering at prices around 400,000 and 300,000 respectively, with some models even exceeding 200,000 [8][10] Group 3: Benefits of Rear-Wheel Steering - Rear-wheel steering significantly enhances maneuverability, allowing larger vehicles to have a turning radius comparable to smaller cars, improving parking and navigation in tight spaces [10][13] - The technology also enables advanced features like crab walking, which relies on rear-wheel steering [14] Group 4: Market Penetration and Challenges - Despite its advantages, rear-wheel steering has a low global penetration rate of only 1.2%, indicating limited adoption compared to other technologies [17] - The complexity and cost of implementing rear-wheel steering systems, along with the need for additional space and maintenance considerations, hinder widespread adoption [53][67] Group 5: Historical Context and Evolution - The evolution of rear-wheel steering began in the late 19th century, with early attempts using simple mechanical systems, leading to its application in agricultural and military vehicles during the 20th century [18][22][24] - The transition to passenger vehicles occurred in the late 20th century, but early systems were passive and had reliability issues, prompting the development of more advanced active systems [29][32] Group 6: Future Prospects - Despite current challenges, domestic companies are investing in rear-wheel steering technology, which may lead to increased accessibility and innovation in the future [70][72] - The potential for domestic suppliers to disrupt the market and drive down costs is highlighted, suggesting a promising outlook for the technology's adoption [72][73]

Core Insights - The collaboration between Zhongshan Industrial Technology Research Institute and various universities has led to the establishment of a robust innovation ecosystem, resulting in the incubation of 223 technology companies and nearly 100 projects at the municipal level [2][4]. Group 1: Company Developments - Audo Technology, a company focused on automotive intelligent core components and vehicle networking, has grown its annual output value from 200 million yuan to an expected 800 million yuan this year [3]. - Precision Optical Technology Co., Ltd. has developed an intelligent optical fiber early warning system for safety monitoring in engineering projects, gaining market recognition [3]. - Guangdong Jingcui Biotechnology Co., Ltd. produces natural plant surfactants for various cleaning products, with an annual output of approximately 400 tons and over 200 clients [5]. - Guokai Ruino (Zhongshan) Biotechnology Co., Ltd. has developed water-soluble chitosan technology to address chronic wound issues, with an expected annual output value exceeding 80 million yuan [6]. - 聚云软件科技有限公司 has established a bridge collision warning monitoring center, addressing safety concerns in the shipping industry [7]. - Guangdong Zhengde Material Surface Technology Co., Ltd. has developed advanced nano-composite surface coating materials, achieving import substitution and securing 20 million yuan in angel round financing [8][9]. Group 2: Innovation and Support Mechanisms - The establishment of a market-oriented research institute platform has facilitated deep integration of industry, academia, and research, with over 200 scientists engaged in various projects [4]. - Continuous financial support from Zhongshan's technology bureau has been crucial for the growth of innovative enterprises, with policies updated to enhance the incubation system [6]. - The collaboration between scientists and entrepreneurs has proven effective in transforming scientific achievements into marketable products, thereby bridging the gap in technology commercialization [9].