国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2026年1月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1、本周双胶纸市场横盘运行。据卓创资讯数据显示，本周70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为4725元/吨，环比持平，本周趋势延续稳定；70g 木浆本白双胶纸市场均价为4454元/吨，环比持平，与上周趋势相比由涨转稳。影响市场价格走势的主要因素有：第一，月初个别纸企报盘上 调，出货基本稳定，经销商谨慎拿货为主，备货意愿偏低；第二，江西地区个别停机产线复产，市场供应压力增加；第三，出版订单继续提 货，下游印厂社会面接单有限，采买热情欠佳，整体交投偏刚需；第四，上游木浆价格部分上涨，成本面对双胶纸支撑 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the paper industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - In June, the prices of pulp and paper have stabilized after a decline, with pulp prices expected to remain low and paper prices showing weakness during the off-season [3] Summary by Sections Cultural Paper - Prices and costs have stabilized with a marginal improvement in supply and demand. As of June 27, the average market price for 70g high white double glue paper was 5153 CNY/ton, down 47 CNY/ton (0.90%) month-on-month and down 573 CNY/ton (10.01%) year-on-year [5][8] - Supply and demand are expected to improve marginally as the publishing order cycle approaches, although the overall demand remains weak [10] - Profitability is stable as the average theoretical gross margin for double glue paper was 1.81%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points from May [21] White Cardboard - Prices initially increased before declining, with the average market price for 250-400g flat white cardboard at 4088 CNY/ton, a 0.29% increase from May but a 6.17% decrease year-on-year [24] - Supply and demand are expected to widen, with a forecast of increased production and limited demand during the traditional off-season [28] - Profitability has improved due to a decrease in costs, with the gross margin rising by 1.46 percentage points from May [37] Boxboard Paper - The market price for boxboard paper has decreased, with an average price of 3503 CNY/ton, down 11 CNY/ton (0.31%) from May and down 3.68% year-on-year [40] - The industry is entering a traditional off-season, leading to increased supply pressure and weak demand [44] - The profitability of the industry is under pressure due to rising costs and declining prices [40] Pulp - External prices for pulp are declining, with a supply-demand imbalance expected to persist. The new external prices for needle pulp are set at 720 USD/ton and for bleached pulp at 620 USD/ton [6][8] - The demand side remains weak, with paper mills adopting price-cutting strategies to optimize raw material procurement costs [6][8] Waste Paper - Prices have fluctuated, with overall supply and demand remaining weak. The market is experiencing a traditional off-season, leading to reduced demand [4][6]