Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of pulp futures have not improved. It is recommended to view it as range - bound and sell on rallies [7]. - The fundamentals of double - offset paper futures have not improved. It is recommended to view it as range - bound and sell on rallies [18]. 3. Summary by Variety Pulp - **Demand**: Demand is flat, with only rigid demand replenishment. Terminal orders in the downstream base paper market are limited, and paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. Only sporadic publishing tenders in the cultural paper field have slightly boosted market confidence, but demand has not improved substantially. The overall operating rate of downstream finished paper has declined [5]. - **Supply**: Supply is relatively abundant. Although the domestic pulp import volume decreased in October, port inventories are still ample. Overseas prices have fluctuated, but there is no shortage of supply [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 211.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.2 million tons or 5.1%. The inventory shifted from narrow - range destocking to high - level accumulation [5]. - **Profit**: Paper mill profits continue to decline. Although the pulp futures market rebounded, weak downstream demand has led to a lack of support for price increases in the finished paper market, and the industry profit is contracting [6]. Double - offset Paper - **Demand**: Demand remains weak. This week, the domestic sales volume of double - offset paper was 169.6 thousand tons. Only sporadic orders were released in the publishing field, and social printing demand was sluggish. The market transaction was light, and only some downstream enterprises replenished inventory moderately [17]. - **Supply**: Supply increased slightly. This week, the operating rate of double - offset paper was 51.40%, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 percentage points, but the growth rate narrowed. The industry output reached 175.6 thousand tons, and imports remained at a low level [17]. - **Inventory**: Inventory decreased from an increase but the pressure still exists. This week, the inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 0.66% compared with last week. Although paper mill inventories decreased slightly, the overall inventory pressure has not been substantially alleviated [17]. - **Profit**: The industry is still in a loss state. Although some paper mills' planned price increases may offset cost pressure slightly, the industry has been in a loss situation since October, and rising costs and weak demand have failed to reverse the loss pattern [17]. Waste Paper - **Demand**: Demand is strong and rising. The e - commerce festival and year - end promotions have led to concentrated procurement by downstream cardboard and carton factories. The seasonal recovery of cultural paper has also increased the demand for waste paper, driving up the procurement volume of waste cartons. The operating rate of paper mills exceeded 85%, and leading paper mills have raised purchase prices [26]. - **Supply**: Supply is continuously tight. The recycling volume of waste cartons has decreased in many domestic areas, and import restrictions and price increases of imported recycled pulp have increased the demand for domestic waste cartons. Some paper mills' maintenance has further exacerbated the supply gap [26]. - **Inventory**: Overall, there is a narrow - range destocking trend. As of November 6, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 200.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.3 million tons or 2.6%. Downstream cardboard factories' raw material inventories are mostly at medium - to - high levels, while paper mills' raw material inventories are generally low [26]. - **Profit**: Industry profits are clearly divided. The cost pressure of corrugated paper and boxboard paper has increased, and gross profit has shrunk. However, the demand for yarn tube paper is good, and the gross profit of some high - end paper types has remained at a good level [27]. Boxboard Paper (Packaging Paper) - **Demand**: Demand shows resilience. The e - commerce replenishment demand after the "Double 11" promotion and the subsequent Chinese New Year goods stocking demand support the demand for boxboard paper. Downstream cardboard factories have a certain demand for boxboard paper, driving some paper mills to raise prices [36]. - **Supply**: Supply is structurally tightened. Leading paper mills such as Nine Dragons and Shanying have raised prices, but due to the shortage of raw material waste paper, some medium - and large - sized paper mills in East and South China have announced machine shutdowns for maintenance in mid - November, resulting in a decrease in overall market supply [36]. - **Inventory**: The inventory turnover is 10.5 days, which is relatively controllable. However, the high - level raw material inventories of downstream cardboard factories have restricted their replenishment, and the low raw material inventories of paper mills have affected the production and stocking rhythm of boxboard paper [36]. - **Profit**: The immediate profit is 270 yuan, and profitability has some support. The price increase of boxboard paper and the rising cost of raw material waste yellow board paper have affected the profit margin, which is in a moderate recovery state [36].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Double-offset Paper Data Daily Report [3] - Report Date: October 17, 2025 [4] - Researcher: Yang Lulin from the Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [4] Group 2: Double-offset Paper Futures Data - On October 16, 2025, the price of 0P2601 was 4210, with a daily increase of 0.10% compared to the previous day [5]. - The open interest of the main contract on October 16, 2025, was 1107, a daily decrease of 3.99% [5]. Group 3: Spot Price Data Double-offset Paper - On October 16, 2025, the prices of various double-offset papers in different regions remained stable with no daily or weekly changes, except for Beijing Gaobai Ruixue which also had no changes [5]. Copperplate Paper - The prices of most copperplate papers remained stable on October 16, 2025, but Shandong Chenming Xuetutu decreased by 2.11% week-on-week, and Shandong Taiyang Tianyang decreased by 1.03% week-on-week [5]. Group 4: Papermaking Raw Material Data - On October 16, 2025, the prices of some papermaking raw materials changed. Shandong Needle-leaf Silver Star increased by 0.71% daily and decreased by 0.88% weekly; Shandong Broad-leaf Goldfish increased by 0.71% daily and decreased by 0.88% weekly [6]. Group 5: Double-offset Paper Supply and Demand Data - From August 29, 2025, to October 17, 2025, the production volume, capacity utilization rate, factory inventory, and social inventory of double-offset paper fluctuated [6]. - The production profit of double-offset paper also fluctuated during this period, with the production profit of double-offset paper mainly using chemimechanical pulp being 586.25 on October 17, 2025, and that mainly using broad-leaf pulp being 264 [6]. Group 6: Core Viewpoint - The current spot price of double-offset paper has not stopped falling and stabilizing, and most double-offset papers are still slightly declining. The benefits of the "Golden September and Silver October" have not been reflected. The price of broad-leaf pulp in the raw material end has increased, compressing the production profit of double-offset paper. The production volume has increased due to the resumption of production of Chenming Paper, and the inventory has slightly increased. However, the current capital participation in the futures market is poor, and the overall market is fluctuating. The double-offset paper market is currently in a reasonable operating range, and short-term observation is recommended [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current spot price of offset paper has not stopped falling and stabilizing, most double - rotary papers are still slightly declining, and the benefits of the "Golden September and Silver October" have not been reflected. The pulp price increased during the week, compressing the production profit of offset paper. The output increased due to the resumption of production by Chenming Paper, and the inventory increased slightly. The futures market currently has poor capital participation and is generally in a volatile state. The offset paper market is basically in a reasonable operating range, and short - term observation is recommended [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - On October 14, 2025, the price of OP2601 was 4216, with a daily increase of 0.14% compared to the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1140, a decrease of 2.48% compared to the previous day [5]. 3.2 Spot Price Data - **Offset Paper**: The prices of various brands of offset paper in different regions showed little daily change. For example, the price of Shandong High - white Swan was 4675 yuan/ton, with a daily and weekly change of 0.00%. However, some products had negative weekly changes, such as Yidong High - white Blue Leaf with a weekly decrease of 1.08% [5]. - **Coated Paper**: Similar to offset paper, the daily price changes of coated paper were mostly 0.00%. For instance, the price of Guangdong Chenming Snow Rabbit was 4650 yuan/ton, with a daily and weekly change of 0.00%. Some products also had negative weekly changes, like Shandong Chenming Snow Rabbit with a weekly decrease of 2.11% [5]. 3.3 Papermaking Raw Material Data - The prices of different types of pulp in Shandong and Guangdong regions had different daily and weekly changes. For example, the price of Shandong Coniferous Silver Star was 5600 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.88% and a weekly increase of 0.71% [6]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Data - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: From August 22, 2025, to September 26, 2025, the output of offset paper increased from 19.48 tons to 21 tons, and the capacity utilization rate fluctuated between 52.93% and 56.9% [6]. - **Inventory**: Both the factory - level inventory and social inventory showed little change during the period from August 22, 2025, to September 26, 2025. The factory - level inventory was around 117.81 - 122.7 tons, and the social inventory was around 53 - 53.8 tons [6]. - **Profit**: The production profit of offset paper using chemimechanical pulp as the main raw material was between 541.25 - 629 yuan/ton, and that using hardwood pulp as the main raw material was between 264 - 392 yuan/ton during the period from August 22, 2025, to September 26, 2025 [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - This week's view on offset printing paper: The futures price is undervalued, and the overall driving force is bearish. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand remains weak. The paper price may decline next week, and the futures price may follow suit. The recommended strategy is to sell high [51]. Summary by Directory Industry News - Domestic double-offset paper inventory days increased by 0.87% week-on-week, with a narrower increase of 0.45 percentage points compared to last week. The supply pressure increased, but the downstream demand did not improve significantly, and the dealer inventory remained cautious [6]. - The domestic double-offset paper operating rate was 50.12%, a week-on-week increase of 1.90 percentage points, reversing the downward trend. Some production lines in Shandong and Henan resumed production or increased their operating rates [6]. - In July 2025, the total European port pulp inventory decreased by 1.91% month-on-month but increased by 19.19% compared to July 2024. Most European countries' port inventories decreased month-on-month [6]. Market Trends - The average price of 70g high-white double-offset paper on September 12 was 4,818.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and last week [9]. - The prices of various double-offset paper products in the Shandong and Guangdong spot markets remained unchanged week-on-week [10]. - In terms of cost and profit, the pre-tax and after-tax gross margins increased by 11 yuan and 10 yuan respectively week-on-week [10]. Supply and Demand Data - **Industry Capacity**: In 2024, the domestic double-offset paper industry capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7%. The annual output was about 9.478 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 57% [19]. - **Weekly Production and Capacity Utilization**: This week, the domestic double-offset paper industry output was 168,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 50.1% [24]. - **Weekly Sales and Inventory**: This week, the domestic double-offset paper industry sales were 165,300 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory was 355,400 tons [29]. - **Imports and Exports**: In July, the domestic double-offset paper imports were about 12,000 tons, and the exports were about 62,000 tons [36]. - **Inventory**: In August, the social and enterprise inventories of double-offset paper increased slightly [42]. - **Terminal Consumption**: In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [48]. Market Judgment - **Supply**: Domestic production this week was 168,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 50.1%. In July, imports were about 12,000 tons, maintaining a low level [51]. - **Demand**: Domestic sales this week were 165,300 tons. In July, exports were about 62,000 tons [51]. - **View**: The double-offset paper futures market has been in a low-level shock. The lack of upward momentum is due to the lack of positive drivers. In the short term, the impact on the spot market is limited. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand remains weak. The paper price may decline, and the futures price may follow suit [51]. - **Valuation**: The current valuation does not provide delivery profits, and the overall valuation is low. The current futures price is close to the production cost of some less integrated enterprises [51]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to sell high [51].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved an operating income of CNY 19.113 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 1.780 billion [3] - As of the end of the reporting period, total assets amounted to CNY 56.445 billion, with net assets attributable to shareholders at CNY 30.356 billion, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of 46.01% [3] Group 2: Operational Strategies - The company implemented a differentiated strategy focusing on "raw materials, processes, and products" to enhance overall competitiveness [3] - The company achieved a 3.3% reduction in unit comprehensive energy consumption for pulp and paper products in the first half of 2025 [3] Group 3: Project Developments - The 37,000-ton specialty paper project at the Yandian plant began trial production in April 2025 and entered stable operation in May 2025 [4] - The 600,000-ton bleached chemical pulp project and the 700,000-ton high-end packaging paper project are set to enhance production capacity and reduce reliance on external purchases [5][6] Group 4: Market Expansion - The company reported a 72% year-on-year increase in overseas sales revenue in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong focus on expanding international markets [7] - Plans to enhance product exports, particularly in cultural paper, life paper, and specialty paper, are a key focus for future growth [7] Group 5: Industry Impact - The introduction of double-glue paper futures is expected to increase price transparency and stabilize market prices, although it may also lead to increased volatility in the short term [8] - The company is strategically expanding its operations in Shandong to enhance its competitive edge in the northern market [9]