[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|电子 2026 年 1 月 26 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] AI 的 Memory 时刻 5 | | | | AI NAND | 供需紧张，涨价仍有弹性 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： [Tabl | 王亮 | 分析师： | 耿正 | 分析师： | 焦鼎 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260519060001 | | SAC 执证号：S0260520090002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522120003 | | | SFC CE.no: BFS478 | | | | | | | 021-38003658 | | 021-38003660 | | 021-38003658 | | | gfwangliang@gf.com.cn | | gengzheng@gf.com.cn | | jiaoding@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 张大伟 | | | | | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523050001 | | | | | | | 02 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market [1] - Experts predict an increase in fiscal support for consumption in the coming year, with measures including proactive fiscal policies, potential interest rate cuts, and stabilization of the real estate market to achieve dynamic balance between supply and demand [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - OpenAI officially launched the GPT-5.2 series, claiming it to be the most powerful model for professional knowledge work, surpassing previous versions in reasoning and financial modeling capabilities [2] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to introduce policies to accelerate innovation and development in the retail sector, aiming to enhance the quality of goods and services and promote fair competition between online and offline channels [3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Market sentiment is positive following the Central Economic Work Conference, with historical data suggesting that the market tends to perform well in the week following such announcements [6] - Analysts expect a period of resonance among policies, liquidity, and fundamentals, with a focus on technology growth and large financial sectors [7] - Short-term market adjustments are anticipated, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to test support around 3850 points [8] Group 4: Emerging Opportunities - The collaboration between SK Hynix and NVIDIA to develop next-generation AI NAND storage products is seen as a significant opportunity, with expectations for increased demand for SSDs driven by AI applications [9] - The nuclear fusion sector is entering a phase of intensive bidding, with multiple projects like "Spark One" being initiated, indicating potential growth in capital expenditures in the industry [10] - The tungsten market is expected to remain tight due to supply constraints, leading to a sustained increase in tungsten prices over the next 3-5 years [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key stocks in the semiconductor and storage sectors, including companies like 香农芯创, 东山精密, 胜宏科技, and 工业富联 [5] Core Insights - The storage market is undergoing a significant structural transformation, with DRAM and NAND flash experiencing unprecedented supply shortages, expected to last until at least 2026 [1][10] - The demand for optical chips is surging, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance, particularly in the data center sector [1][37] - SK Hynix is transitioning towards a comprehensive AI storage strategy, introducing customized HBM and AI-focused DRAM and NAND products [2][13] - SanDisk reported exceptional FY26 Q1 results, driven by strong NAND demand, with revenue reaching $2.308 billion, a 21% increase quarter-over-quarter [3][29] Summary by Sections Storage Supply and Demand - The DRAM market is experiencing a severe shortage, with prices for DDR5 and DDR4 expected to rise until 2027, driven by a lack of new capacity and high demand from data centers [1][10] - NAND flash supply is also tight, with significant price increases observed in November, reflecting a 50% rise in quotes [1][10] - SanDisk's NAND bit shipments grew by approximately 15%, with expectations of continued strong demand through 2026 [3][29] Optical Chip Demand - Lumentum and Coherent reported strong earnings, benefiting from increased demand for optical chips in data centers, with Lumentum noting a supply-demand gap widening to 25-30% [1][43][49] - Coherent's Q1 revenue reached $1.58 billion, with a significant portion coming from data center and communication sectors [2][51] Key Company Developments - SK Hynix unveiled its product roadmap focusing on AI storage solutions, including customized HBM and AI DRAM, aiming to enhance computational efficiency [2][13] - Lumentum's Q1 revenue was $533.8 million, with a gross margin of 39.4%, driven by strong demand in data center interconnects [43][44] - Coherent's Q1 revenue was $1.58 billion, with a focus on expanding its phosphide production capacity to meet growing demand [50][58]