证 券 研 究 报 告 通信行业周报（20250707-20250713） 博通管理层会议指引积极，Grok 4 正式发布，建 推荐（维持） 议关注海外算力链景气度机遇 行业研究 通信 2025 年 07 月 13 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧子兴 邮箱：ouzixing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080007 联系人：谢然 邮箱：xieran@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 123 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 49,248.97 | 4.66 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 23,006.93 | 2.77 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 8.7% | 18.6% | 30.5% | | 相对表现 | 4.9% | 11.2% | 13.5% | -13% 3% 18% 33% 24/07 24/09 24/12 25/02 25/04 25/07 2024-07-12~2025-0 ...

AI强劲需求助推博通业务多线增长 小摩重申"增持"评级 智通财经7月11日电，摩根大通发布研报称，该行近日与博通的管理层进行了投资者小组会议，讨论重 点围绕强劲的人工智能(AI)需求趋势，这不仅推动了博通定制AI XPU业务的增长，也带动了对其高性 能网络产品组合的强劲需求。此外，订单回暖突显出非AI业务也出现了逐步复苏的趋势，VMware业务 持续增长。该行重申对博通的"增持"评级，对该股在2025年12月的目标价为325美元。这一目标价较博 通7月10日收盘价275.4美元有约18%的上涨空间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report highlights strong demand trends in artificial intelligence (AI) driving growth for Broadcom's custom AI XPU business and high-performance networking product portfolio [1][3] Group 1: AI Demand and Market Potential - AI demand remains robust, with inference workloads creating additional demand that was not included in the previous 2027 serviceable available market (SAM) forecast, indicating potential upside [2] - The execution in product technology development is strong, with 2nm 3.5D AI XPU products expected to complete tape-out this year, and the first generation AI XPU products also anticipated to complete tape-out, with partnerships established with key potential clients [2][3] Group 2: Networking and Non-AI Business Recovery - AI computing workloads are driving strong networking demand, significantly enhancing unit value in expanded networks, providing substantial revenue capture opportunities [2] - Non-AI semiconductor business is experiencing a "U-shaped" gradual recovery, with observed order/reservation inflection points expected to drive earnings per share (EPS) upgrades next year [2] Group 3: VMware and Overall Financial Outlook - The VMware Cloud Foundation (VCF) platform transition is expected to continue driving strong growth for VMware business, projected to reach an annual revenue of $20 billion by the end of 2026 or 2027, with growth rates returning to mid to high single digits thereafter [2] - Despite some margin pressure in AI XPU business, overall semiconductor operating profit margins are expected to continue expanding due to operational leverage, with management focusing on reinvestment in AI growth opportunities rather than acquisitions [3] Group 4: Market Position and Valuation - Broadcom is positioned as the second-largest AI semiconductor supplier globally and the largest custom chip (ASIC) supplier, with a strong presence in wireless communication, data center networking, AI/deep learning ASICs, storage, and infrastructure silicon chips [3][4] - Morgan Stanley maintains a price target of $325 for Broadcom by December 2025, representing approximately 18% upside from the closing price of $275.4 on July 10 [3]

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research 09 July 2025 Broadcom Inc Mgmt Meeting: AI Demand Remains Strong Driven By Inference Along With Non-AI Businesses Recovery and Sustained VMware Revenue Growth; Business Firing On All Cylinders Yesterday, we hosted an investor group meeting with Broadcom's President and CEO, Hock Tan, CFO, Kirsten Spears, and VP of IR, Ji Yoo. The discussions centered around strong AI demand trends, which are driving strong growth in Broadcom's custom AI XPU business and driving ...

Core Insights - The management of Broadcom has indicated a significant and unexpected increase in demand for AI inference, which is currently exceeding existing production capacity, suggesting potential upward revisions in future profitability [1][2][3] - Non-AI business segments are also showing signs of recovery, particularly through VMware's growth, contributing to a multi-faceted growth strategy for the company [1][4] AI Inference Demand - Broadcom's custom AI XPU chip business remains strong, with a clear growth trajectory. The past year saw AI demand primarily focused on training workloads, but a notable surge in inference demand has been observed in the last two months as clients seek to monetize their AI investments [2][3] - The current inference demand is not included in Broadcom's 2027 market size forecast, which estimates $60-90 billion for three existing AI clients, indicating a potential upside opportunity [3] Technological Advancements - Broadcom is collaborating closely with four potential AI XPU clients, aiming to build 1 million XPU AI cluster infrastructures. The company plans to complete the first generation of AI XPU products for two major clients this year [3] - The company is leading the industry transition to next-generation 2nm 3.5D packaging AI XPU architecture, with plans to complete the 2nm 3.5D AI XPU tape-out this year [3] Non-AI Business Recovery - After several quarters of cyclical pressure in non-AI semiconductor businesses, Broadcom is witnessing a gradual "U"-shaped recovery, reflected in current booking and order situations. This recovery may drive positive EPS revisions next year [4] - VMware is leveraging its cloud infrastructure (VCF) platform to provide comprehensive solutions for large enterprise clients, with expected revenue growth to approximately $20 billion annually by 2026/2027 [4] Profitability and Financial Metrics - Despite potential pressure on gross margins from high demand for custom AI XPUs, Broadcom anticipates continued expansion of operating margins due to operational leverage. AI revenue is expected to grow by 60% year-over-year in fiscal 2026, while operating expenses are not expected to increase at the same rate [5] - Key financial estimates for Broadcom include projected revenues of $51.574 billion for FY24, $63.447 billion for FY25, and $76.362 billion for FY26, with adjusted EPS expected to grow from $4.86 in FY24 to $8.38 in FY26 [6] Market Outlook - JPMorgan maintains an "overweight" rating on Broadcom with a target price of $325, representing a 16.9% upside from the current stock price. Broadcom's stock has risen nearly 20% year-to-date [7]

He believes these customers—including OpenAI—are aiming to build massive AI clusters of "1 million XPU" units, which would place Broadcom at the heart of the AI buildout. Nvidia Corp NVDA may dominate AI headlines, but JPMorgan's Harlan Sur thinks Broadcom Inc AVGO deserves more credit for building the infrastructure that makes artificial intelligence work. From cutting-edge XPUs to networking muscle and enterprise software, Broadcom is the "#2 global AI semiconductor supplier" and the top name in custom AS ...

Core Insights - Marvell Technology (MRVL) is experiencing significant revenue growth driven by custom AI silicon chips, particularly among hyperscalers, despite facing inconsistent gross margins and a long-term declining trend [1][4]. Revenue Growth - The robust top-line growth is attributed to the strong demand for custom AI XPUs, electro-optics solutions, and custom high bandwidth memory chips, which enhance performance and bandwidth for custom AI servers [2][9]. - Marvell's revenues are rising due to the increasing demand for these custom AI solutions [9]. Gross Margin Trends - Marvell's non-GAAP gross margin has declined by 260 basis points year-over-year and 30 basis points sequentially to 59.8% in Q1 of fiscal 2026, with projections for Q2 of fiscal 2026 indicating a range of 59% to 60%, lower than the previous year's 61.9% [4]. - The higher manufacturing costs associated with AI silicon are contributing to the continued decline in gross margin [3][9]. Competitive Landscape - Marvell faces significant competitive pressure from Broadcom (AVGO) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) in the custom silicon solutions market [5][9]. - Broadcom's semiconductor segment, which includes custom silicon solutions, grew by 11% year-over-year in Q1 of fiscal 2025, highlighting the competitive environment [6]. - AMD's custom silicon solutions and AI accelerators are widely used in data centers, further intensifying competition [7]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Marvell's shares have decreased by 32.2% year-to-date, contrasting with the Electronics - Semiconductors industry's growth of 13.3% [8]. - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 7.23X, which is lower than the industry average of 8.63X [10]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Marvell's fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings suggests year-over-year growth of 77.7% and 27.73%, respectively, with upward revisions in estimates over the past 30 days [11].

Core Insights - Marvell Technology (MRVL) reported approximately $1.9 billion in revenues for Q1 fiscal 2026, marking a 63% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by growth in the Data Center market [1] - The company forecasts Q2 revenues to reach $2.0 billion (+/- 5%), indicating a potential 57.4% year-over-year growth and a 5.5% sequential increase [1][10] - The growth is largely attributed to demand for AI-driven custom silicon, which has become the largest component of Marvell's data center revenues [2][10] Revenue Growth - The Data Center end market experienced a robust 76% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1, significantly contributing to Marvell's overall performance [3] - Custom AI silicon chips, including custom AI XPUs and electro-optics solutions, are key drivers of this growth [3] Investment and Strategy - Marvell is heavily investing in custom silicon programs to scale production rapidly, including the introduction of a 2.5D advanced packaging platform [4] - The company aims to strengthen its portfolio of custom application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) to maintain a competitive edge in the custom AI silicon space [4] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Broadcom reported $4.4 billion in AI-related semiconductor revenues, showing a 46% year-over-year growth, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported $3.7 billion in Data Center revenues, up 57% year-over-year [6][7] Valuation and Estimates - Marvell Technology's shares have decreased by 37.5% year-to-date, contrasting with the Electronics - Semiconductors industry's growth of 3.4% [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 6.8X, which is lower than the industry average of 7.96X [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Marvell's fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 77.07% and 28.06%, respectively, with upward revisions in the past 30 days [14]

Key Takeaways MRVL's data center unit jumped 76% Y/Y in Q1 FY26, led by strong custom AI silicon and optics demand. Partnership with NVIDIA and new 2.5D packaging platform fuel MRVL's AI XPU scalability and cost control.Marvell Technology’s (MRVL) custom AI silicon chips are experiencing massive traction among hyperscalers, which is evident in the high-growth rate of Data Center end-market revenues. The custom AI silicon chips mainly account for Marvell’s custom AI XPUs and electro-optics solutions.Marvell ...

Core Viewpoint - Marvell Technology has not participated significantly in the recent semiconductor stock recovery, with disappointing earnings results leading to a drop in share price [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - Marvell's fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report showed sales growth of over 63%, slightly exceeding the anticipated 62% growth, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at 62 cents, beating estimates by one cent [4]. - The company's shares dropped approximately 5.5% following the earnings announcement, and are down around 45% from the May 30 close, recovering only moderately from a 55% decline in early April [2][3]. Market Context - The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down about 5% compared to April lows of -28%, indicating a broader market trend affecting semiconductor stocks [2]. - External factors, such as trade tensions between the U.S. and China, have also contributed to the decline in chip stocks [5]. Analyst Sentiment - Despite the disappointing performance, analysts maintain a positive outlook on Marvell, with an average price target of just over $92, suggesting a potential upside of 53% from the May 30 closing price [3][9]. - The most bearish analyst has set a price target of $60, which is close to the stock's recent closing price, indicating that shares may be fairly valued [11]. Key Business Developments - Marvell's revenue from the data center market grew rapidly at 76% year-over-year, with four out of five end markets experiencing growth [6]. - The company has a significant partnership with Amazon Web Services (AWS), confirmed by a five-year deal for custom chips, although there are concerns about competition from other suppliers [7][10]. - Management indicated that production of the AI XPU for AWS's Trainium 2 chip is ramping up, and they are engaged in developing the next-generation Trainium 3 chip [8][9]. Future Outlook - Analysts believe that Marvell's partnerships with AWS and potentially Microsoft position the company for recovery, especially with an upcoming event focused on custom silicon technology for AI infrastructure [11].