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银河期货农产品日报:苹果日报-20260317
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-17 11:08
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Although the fundamentals of apples are strong, with low cold - storage apple inventory and high cost of May contracts, the upward momentum and time for the May contract are insufficient due to the high previous price and upcoming position - limit. The market will likely focus on the new - season apple production as the key growing period approaches. With a likely increase in production and more flower buds, the report suggests short - term short - selling of the October contract [5]. Group 3: Market Information Spot Price - Fuji apple price index is 110.41 today, down 0.15 from the next - working - day price. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.84, down 0.06 [2]. - The prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, Penglai first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, and Yiyuan paper - bagged 70 remain unchanged [2]. Futures Price - AP01 is 8622, up 25 from yesterday's close; AP05 is 10118, up 54; AP10 is 8765, up 32 [2]. - The spreads between different contracts have also changed. For example, AP01 - AP05 is - 1496, down 29; AP05 - AP10 is 1353, up 22; AP10 - AP01 is 143, up 7 [2]. Basis - The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against different contracts has decreased. For example, Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 is - 622, down 25; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP05 is - 2118, down 54; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP10 is - 765, down 32 [2]. Group 4: Market News - As of March 12, 2026, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas is 499.72 million tons, a decrease of 27.81 million tons from last week and 24.34 million tons from last year, with a decline of 4.6% [7]. - The main apple market in the producing areas is stable. There are many merchants in the producing areas, starting to stock up for Tomb - sweeping Festival. The cold - storage packaging quantity is acceptable, and some cold - storage owners are reluctant to sell. The market arrival has increased, and the mainstream price remains stable [7]. - In Shandong, the price of high - quality late - maturing paper - bagged Fuji in cold storage is stable. There are merchants packaging in cold storage, mainly in the main producing areas. The cold - storage trading volume is small, and foreign traders mainly purchase medium - and small - sized fruits. The number of merchants has increased. The mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruits in Qixia is 3.0 - 3.5 yuan per jin [7]. - In Shaanxi, the mainstream price is stable. The number of merchants has increased, mainly purchasing high - quality goods. The supply of high - quality goods is limited, and the procurement is difficult. In recent days, merchants have become more accepting of high prices. The mainstream price of 70 and above paper - bagged Fuji in Luochuan is 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per jin [7]. Group 5: Trading Strategy Single - side - It is recommended to exit and wait for the May contract and short - sell the October contract at high prices [6]. Arbitrage - It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Options - It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Group 6: Related Attachments - There are multiple graphs in the report, including the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, AP contract basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volume in wholesale markets, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple out - bound volume [10][11][14]
银河期货农产品日报-20260316
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-16 11:13
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Although the fundamentals of apples are strong, with low cold - storage apple inventory and poor quality, and high cost of May contracts' warehouse receipts, the upward momentum and time for the May apple contract are insufficient. As the key growing season of new - season apples approaches, the market will focus on the production of new - season apples, which are expected to increase. It is recommended to short the October contract on rallies in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index is 110.41, down 0.15 from the next - working - day forecast. Prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remain stable. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.90, up 0.04 [2] - **Futures Prices**: AP01 is at 8597, up 62 from yesterday's close; AP05 is at 10064, up 66; AP10 is at 8733, up 90. There are also changes in spreads like AP01 - AP05, AP05 - AP10, and AP10 - AP01 [2] - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against AP01, AP05, and AP10 all show declines [2] Second Part: Market News and Views - **Apple Market News** - As of March 12, 2026, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory is 499.72 million tons, a decrease of 27.81 million tons from last week and 24.34 million tons from last year, a 4.6% reduction [7] - In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples is about 15.65 million tons, a 28.63% increase from the previous month and a 26.76% increase from the same period last year. The import volume is 0.31 million tons, a 21.31% increase from the previous month and a 20.02% increase from the same period last year. The annual cumulative import volume in 2025 is 11.68 million tons, a 19.72% increase from the previous year [7] - The main apple market in the producing area remains stable. There are many merchants in the producing area, starting to stock up for the Tomb - sweeping Festival. The cold - storage packaging volume is okay, and some cold - storage facilities show reluctance to sell. The market arrivals increase, and the mainstream price remains stable [7] - In Shandong, the price of late - maturing paper - bagged Fuji in the cold - storage is stable. There are merchants packaging in the cold - storage, mainly in the main - producing area. The trading volume in the cold - storage is small. Foreign - trade merchants mainly buy medium - and small - sized fruits. In Qixia, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruits is 3.0 - 3.5 yuan per catty. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price is stable, with an increase in the number of merchants mainly buying high - quality goods. The supply of high - quality goods is scarce, and the procurement is difficult. In Luochuan, the mainstream price of 70 and above cold - storage paper - bagged Fuji is 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per catty [7] - **Trading Logic**: The May contract has limited upward momentum and time. As the key growing season of new - season apples approaches, the market will focus on new - season apple production, which is expected to increase. It is recommended to short the October contract on rallies in the short term [5] - **Trading Strategy** - For the single - side strategy, it is recommended to exit and wait and see for the May contract and short the October contract on rallies [8] - For the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [8] - For the option strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [8] Third Part: Relevant Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, AP contract main - contract basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrivals in some markets, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple out - bound volume [10][11][14]
苹果日报-20260224
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-24 11:10
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an Apple Daily from the Agricultural Products R & D Report on February 24, 2024, analyzing the apple market [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji apple price index was 107.22, down 0.30 from the previous workday; 6 - fruit average wholesale price was 8.10, up 0.12 from the previous workday [2] - Prices of various apple varieties like Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70, Qixia first and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remained stable [2] Futures Prices - AP01 was 8286, down 15 from the previous close; AP05 was 9705, down 130; AP10 was 8425, down 45 [2] - Spreads like AP01 - AP05, AP05 - AP10, and AP10 - AP01 changed by 115, - 82, and - 30 respectively [2] Basis - Basis of Qixia first and second - grade 80 against AP01, AP05, and AP10 changed by 15, 130, and 45 respectively [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Transaction Logic - Pre - Spring Festival apple出库 data was okay, and inventory decreased significantly, with the year - on - year inventory decline widening. Apple demand was not bad considering the high cold - storage apple prices [5] - The apple warehouse receipt cost this season is around 9700 - 10000 yuan/ton. As the March contract is approaching the delivery month after the Spring Festival, the market may trade the warehouse receipt cost, and the price of the May contract is expected to remain strong in the short term [5] Transaction Strategy - For the single - side strategy, go long on the May contract on dips and short the October contract on rallies [8] - For the arbitrage strategy, go long on the May contract and short the October contract [8] - For options, it is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 4: Related Attachments - There are 10 figures in total, including those showing the prices of Qixia first and second - grade paper - bagged 80, Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70, AP contract basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volume, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple出库 volume [10][11][12]
银河期货农产品日报-20250522
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 12:56
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Apple Daily Report, May 22, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] - Contact: liuqiannan_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: 108.50, up 0.24 from the next working day [3] - 6 Kinds of Fruit Average Wholesale Price: 7.67, down 0.05 from the next working day [3] Futures Prices - AP01: 7469, down 150 from yesterday's close [3] - AP05: 7636, down 130 from yesterday's close [3] - AP10: 7552, down 120 from yesterday's close [3] Basis - Qixia First and Second - Grade 80 - AP01: 731, up 150 from the previous trading day [3] - Qixia First and Second - Grade 80 - AP05: 564, up 130 from the previous trading day [3] - Qixia First and Second - Grade 80 - AP10: 648, up 120 from the previous trading day [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Apple Market News - Cold - Storage Inventory: As of May 16, 2025, the cold - storage inventory in major apple - producing areas was 2.2886 million tons, a decrease of 0.3791 million tons from last week, at a five - year low [4] - Export and Import: In April 2025, fresh apple exports were about 72,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.77%. Imports were 19,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 102.29% and a year - on - year increase of 63.56%. The cumulative imports from January to April 2025 were 32,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 83.87% [7] - Market Price: The mainstream apple prices in the origin remained stable. Storage merchants were actively selling, and market traders mainly purchased as needed. The overall wholesale market was stable [7] - Profit: The profit of Qixia 80 first and second - grade storage merchants in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.9 yuan per catty, up 0.2 yuan per catty from last week [7] - Spot Price: In Qixia, Shandong, the demand for apple slice - red goods was good. The prices of different grades of apples remained stable [8] Trading Logic - The apple cold - storage inventory this year is at a low level since 2019. Before the new apples are on the market, the supply is likely to be tight. The current market sales are okay, and the spot price is strong, which supports the apple price. In addition, the windy and hot - dry weather in the western producing areas in April affected apple fruit - setting in some areas. It is expected that the apple trend will continue to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner [9] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Build long positions in AP10 at low prices in the short term [10] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [11] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [12] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes 10 related charts, such as the price of Qixia first and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, AP contract basis, and apple arrival volume in wholesale markets [16][18][24]
银河期货农产品日报-20250521
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 13:09
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an apple daily report from the Commodity Research Institute, dated May 21, 2024 [2] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - The Fuji apple price index is 108.50, up 0.24 from the previous trading day. The average wholesale price of 6 fruits is 7.70, down 0.13 [3] - Prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70, Qixia first and second - grade paper - bag 80, etc., remained stable compared to the previous trading day [3] Futures Prices - AP01 closed at 7619, down 104 from the previous close; AP05 closed at 7766, down 83; AP10 closed at 0, down 7784 [3] - The spreads between different contracts also changed, e.g., AP01 - AP05 was - 147, down 21 [3] Basis - The basis of Qixia first and second - grade 80 against AP01 is 581, up 104; against AP05 is 434, up 83; against AP10 is 8200, up 7784 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of May 16, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 2.2886 million tons, a decrease of 379,100 tons from the previous week, and the current cold - storage inventory is at a five - year low [4] - Yesterday, the mainstream price of apples in the producing areas remained stable. The supply of slice - red apples was tight with good demand, and the mainstream transaction price showed a firming trend. Other specifications' prices remained stable. Cold - storage trading volume was average, and most merchants had completed their Dragon Boat Festival stocking [7] - The profit of Qixia 80 first and second - grade apple storage merchants in the 2024 - 2025 production season is 0.9 yuan per catty, up 0.2 yuan per catty from last week [7] - In Shandong Yantai Qixia, the demand for slice - red apples is good. The price ranges for different types of apples are provided, and the overall transaction is stable. In Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan, the cold - storage apple price is stable, with less remaining inventory in the warehouse and merchants reluctant to sell [8] Trading Logic - This year's apple cold - storage inventory is at the lowest level since 2019. Before the new apples are on the market, the market supply is likely to be tight. The current market sales are okay, and the spot price is strong, which supports the apple price. In addition, the windy and hot - dry weather in the western producing areas in April affected apple fruit - setting in some areas. It is expected that the apple price will continue to fluctuate slightly upwards [9] Trading Strategies - For the single - side strategy, it is recommended to build long positions in AP10 at low prices in the short term [10] - For the arbitrage and option strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [11][12] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes 10 related charts, such as the price chart of Qixia first and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price chart of Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70 apples, and the chart of AP contract main basis [16][18][22]
银河期货苹果日报-20250512
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 12:26
Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Apple Daily Report, May 12, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] - Contact: liuqiannan_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Chiba Prefecture Index: 115.09, down 0.15 from the previous day [3] - Luochuan Semi-commodity Paper Bag 70: 4.30, unchanged [3] - Qixia First and Second Grade Paper Bag 80: 4.10, unchanged [3] - Penglai First and Second Grade Paper Bag 80: 4.20, unchanged [3] - Yiyuan Paper Bag 70: 2.40, unchanged [3] - Average Wholesale Price of 6 Fruits: 7.92, down 0.09 [3] Futures Prices - AP01: 7772, up 52 from the previous close [3] - AP05: 7872, down 94 [3] - AP10: 7837, up [3] - AP01 - AP05: -100, up 146 [3] - AP05 - AP10: -119, down 119 [3] - AP10 - AP01: -27, down 27 [3] Basis - Qixia First and Second Grade 80 - AP01: 428, down 52 [3] - Qixia First and Second Grade 80 - AP05: 328, up 94 [3] - Qixia First and Second Grade 80 - AP10: 363.0, down 25 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of May 16, 2025, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 2.2886 million tons, a decrease of 379,100 tons from the previous week, and the current cold storage inventory is at a five - year low [4] - In March 2024, the export volume of fresh apples was about 96,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 255,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. In March 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 9,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 535.7% and a year - on - year increase of 167.1%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative import volume was 13,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 123.9% [7] - Last Friday, the mainstream market in the origin remained stable. The number of cold storage merchants in the origin was okay, but the procurement became more cautious. The willingness of cargo owners to ship goods increased, but the asking prices were still high. During the weekend, the cold storage trading volume in the Shandong production area decreased, and the shipping speed slowed down. The market arrivals decreased slightly, the shipping situation was average, and the mainstream wholesale price remained stable [7] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first and second - grade storage merchants was 0.9 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.2 yuan/jin from last week [7] - The price of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The price of fruit growers' first and second - grade slice - red apples above 80 was 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin, striped apples were 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin, merchants' slice - red apples were 4.0 - 4.5 yuan/jin, striped apples were 4.0 - 5.0 yuan/jin. The price of general goods was 2.8 - 3.0 yuan/jin, and the price of third - grade merchants' goods was 2.5 - 3.0 yuan/jin. The mainstream transaction price of 70 apples was 2.5 - 2.7 yuan/jin, priced according to quality. The willingness of cold storage to ship goods increased, merchants' procurement was cautious, and the overall transaction and shipping slowed down [8] Trading Logic - This year's apple cold storage inventory is at a low level, the lowest since 2019. Therefore, it is very likely that the market supply of apples will be tight before the new fruit is launched this fruit season. At present, the market sales are okay, and the spot price is strong, which forms a certain support for the apple price. In addition, the strong wind + high - temperature and drought weather in the western production areas in April of the new fruit season has indeed affected the fruit setting of apples in some production areas. In general, it is expected that the apple trend will continue to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner [9] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - term, build long positions in AP10 on dips [10] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [11] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [12] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include Qixia First and Second Grade Paper Bag 80 Price, Luochuan Semi - commodity Paper Bag 70 Price, AP Contract Main Basis, AP10 - AP01, AP05 - AP10, AP10 - AP05, Total Apple Arrivals in Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao, 6 - Fruit Price, National Cold Storage Apple Inventory, National Cold Storage Apple Outbound Volume [16][18][22][24][28] - Data sources are Galaxy Futures, Steel Union, and Wind Information [18][20][24]