We revise our baseline EUR-USD forecast, reflecting expectations of further USD weakness, by changing our end-2025 EUR-USD forecast to 1.20 (from 1.17), and end- 2026 to 1.25 (from 1.20). We do not make direct changes to other G10 FX forecasts. Accessible version World at a Glance Further Dollar Downside Key forecasts in FX, rates and commodities Amid growing concerns around stagflationary risks, we raise our EUR-USD forecast profile, as we are looking for additional USD softening. Since last month, we also ...

Group 1: Economic and Political Developments - President Trump vowed to remove homeless individuals from Washington D.C. and imprison criminals, despite the mayor's assertion that crime rates have not significantly increased [1] - The White House is preparing to deploy hundreds of National Guard troops to Washington, although the final decision on troop numbers and specific roles is still pending [1] - The U.S. trade representative confirmed that a 15% tariff is not being imposed, leading to a significant drop in European exports to the U.S., particularly a 36% decline in automobile exports [2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Commodity Prices - Gold prices reached a record high due to tariff uncertainties, with futures rising over 2% before the White House clarified that no tariffs on gold would be imposed [2] - Gold closed at $3,397.79 per ounce, with a trading range between $3,379.26 and $3,408.18 per ounce, indicating strong demand for safe-haven assets [2] - The market is closely monitoring the implementation of tariff policies, changes in Federal Reserve personnel, and geopolitical risks [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold - The daily chart for gold shows an expanding BOLL channel and a KD death cross, while the four-hour chart indicates an upward BOLL channel and a KD golden cross [3] - The one-hour chart suggests a narrowing BOLL channel with a KD golden cross, indicating potential short-term upward movement [3] - The key support level for gold is identified at $3,350 per ounce, which is crucial for maintaining bullish momentum [3] Group 4: Trading Strategies - For gold, buy recommendations include entering at $3,365.00 with a stop loss of $7 and a take profit target of $3,400/$3,410 [5] - Another buy strategy suggests entering at $3,350.00 with the same stop loss and a take profit target of $3,395/$3,400 [5] - The strategies emphasize the importance of adjusting stop losses to mitigate risks while trading [20]

Group 1 - The spot gold price opened high on Monday, increasing by $17 to surpass $3220 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.56% [1] - The previous closing price for gold was $3202.02, indicating a significant upward movement [1] - The trading range for gold during the day included a high of $3211.61 and a low of $3207.55 [1] Group 2 - Other commodities showed mixed performance, with UKOUSD down by 0.11% and USOUSD down by 0.19% [1] - The DXY index decreased by 0.14%, while AUDUSD, GBPUSD, and EURUSD showed slight increases [1] - Silver (XAGUSD) experienced a minor decline of 0.02% [1]