| 国泰海通证券 | | --- | | GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES | 目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2026-02-13 09:00——2026-02-24 15:00） 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观专题：《有多少存款：可供"搬家"》2026-02-22 3 | | |  | 宏观专题：《关税一周年：全球贸易重塑的"真相"》2026-02-22 3 | | |  | 宏观周报：《春节期间：海外有何变化》2026-02-22 4 | | |  | 宏观周报：《新春经济温和修复》2026-02-22 5 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《特朗普关税被否：后续如何演绎》2026-02-21 5 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《"K 型分化"的边际收敛》2026-02-21 6 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《超级核心通胀压力仍存》2026-02-14 7 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《M2 增速：创新高的背后》2026-02-14 8 | | |  | 策略专题报告：《中国股市上升的关键动力三：中国内需提振的"有力转折"》2 ...

Core Insights - The Zacks Premium service offers various tools for investors to enhance their stock market strategies and confidence in investing [1] Zacks Style Scores - Zacks Style Scores provide a unique rating system for stocks based on value, growth, and momentum characteristics, serving as complementary indicators to the Zacks Rank [2] - Stocks are rated from A to F, with A indicating the highest potential for outperforming the market [3] Value Score - The Value Style Score focuses on identifying undervalued stocks by analyzing financial ratios such as P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, and Price/Cash Flow [3] Growth Score - The Growth Style Score evaluates stocks based on projected and historical earnings, sales, and cash flow to identify those with sustainable growth potential [4] Momentum Score - The Momentum Style Score helps investors capitalize on price trends by analyzing short-term price changes and earnings estimate revisions [5] VGM Score - The VGM Score combines the Value, Growth, and Momentum Scores to identify stocks with the best overall characteristics for investment [6] Zacks Rank - The Zacks Rank is a proprietary model that uses earnings estimate revisions to simplify portfolio building, with 1 (Strong Buy) stocks achieving an average annual return of +23.86% since 1988 [7] - There can be over 800 stocks rated 1 or 2, making it essential to utilize Style Scores for better stock selection [8] Investment Strategy - For optimal returns, investors should focus on stocks with a Zacks Rank of 1 or 2 and Style Scores of A or B, while 3 ranked stocks should also have A or B Scores for maximum upside potential [9] Stock Analysis: Apple (AAPL) - Apple primarily generates revenue from its iPhone and a growing Services portfolio, which includes cloud services and other offerings [11] - AAPL holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) with a VGM Score of B and a Growth Style Score of A, indicating a forecasted year-over-year earnings growth of 12.7% for the current fiscal year [12] - Recent upward revisions in earnings estimates by nine analysts and an increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate to $8.41 per share further support AAPL as a strong candidate for growth investors [12]

Core Insights - Google and Apple are integrating music-focused generative AI features into their consumer applications, highlighting the mainstream adoption of advanced AI tools [1] Group 1: Google Developments - Google's Gemini AI assistant can create 30-second music tracks based on user-uploaded text, photos, or videos using the Lyria 3 model, available to users over 18 in multiple languages [2] - The Gemini AI will also generate custom cover art through its Nano Banana model, enhancing the sharing experience for users [3] - Google aims to strengthen its consumer offerings amid competition with OpenAI's ChatGPT, following positive reception of its Gemini 3 AI model [4] - The AI-driven music creation feature will have usage limits, allowing free users to generate 10 tracks per day, while paying users can create between 20 to 100 tracks daily based on their subscription tier [7] - Google has implemented safeguards to prevent the AI from using specific artists' content, ensuring compliance with intellectual property and privacy regulations [9] Group 2: Apple Developments - Apple is introducing a feature called Playlist Playground in Apple Music, enabling users to create playlists from text prompts, which will include cover art, descriptions, and 25 songs [5] - This new feature is part of iOS 26.4, currently in beta, and will be more widely available in the spring [5] - Apple is working to enhance its AI capabilities across its applications, although updates to its Siri virtual assistant may face delays [6] Group 3: Industry Context - The music industry has expressed concerns regarding generative AI tools, viewing them as potential threats to business and intellectual property [8] - Major music companies have taken legal action against AI startups for copyright infringement, with some reaching settlements to ensure proper licensing and controls [8]

来源：芝麻AI 一、市场: ●2月19日收盘：美股收高科技股领涨 市场关注联储会议纪要 北京时间 2 月 19 日凌晨，美股周三收高，道指、纳指、标普 500 指数均上涨。英伟达、亚马逊、美光 科技等科技股表现亮眼，部分"不太为人熟知"的工业技术类股也有良好表现。投资者关注美联储 1 月会 议纪要，官员们对后续货币政策方向存在分歧，部分担忧通胀走高需上调借贷成本，部分对是否及何时 降息有不同看法。市场预计美联储在 6 月会议前维持当前政策利率，6 月及 9 月或降息。此外，因美国 称对伊朗动武仍有可能，油价跳涨，软件板块当日下跌。 [1] ●2月19日美股成交额前20：谷歌进军AI音乐创作领域 周三美股成交额前 20 中，英伟达成交 301.82 亿美元居首，收高 1.63%，其与 Meta 达成多年协议，被 指对英特尔不利。特斯拉收高 0.17%，因广告问题调整措辞免被吊销加州驾照。闪迪收高 1.66%，西部 数据将出售其部分股份。美光收高 5.3%，借英伟达工具加速分子发现。苹果虽仅成交 88.84 亿美元但 推出 AI 创建播放列表功能。谷歌 A 类股收高 0.43%，引入音乐类生成式 AI 功能。此外 ...

来源：环球市场播报 第9名谷歌A类股收高0.43%，成交47.62亿美元。谷歌与苹果公司正将音乐类生成式人工智能功能引入 其核心消费者应用，此举凸显了先进的AI工具在步入主流使用。 谷歌周三在博客文章中表示，Gemini人工智能助手现可基于用户上传的文本、照片或视频，利用Google DeepMind最新的Lyria 3模型生成30秒的音乐曲目。该功能可生成定制歌词或纯音乐音频，将向18岁以 上用户开放，并支持多种语言。谷歌表示，新功能将在Gemini桌面版率先推出，并将在未来几天登陆移 动应用。 谷歌还表示，其广受欢迎的图像生成模型Nano Banana将为音乐作品生成定制封面，在用户分享曲目链 接时添加视觉效果。 第10名Palantir收高1.77%，成交81.6亿美元。随着南佛罗里达州打造科技中心的努力日益增强，该公司 已将其总部从丹佛迁至迈阿密。此前，该公司已从帕洛阿尔托迁出，并且其政府和国防合同仍在持续扩 展中。 周三美股成交额第1名英伟达收高1.63%，成交301.82亿美元。据报道，英伟达和Meta Platforms宣布达 成一项多年期协议，将为Meta的美国AI数据中心扩张提供"数百万块" ...

谷歌周三在博客文章中表示，Gemini人工智能助手现可基于用户上传的文本、照片或视频，利用Google DeepMind最新的Lyria 3模型生成30秒的音乐曲目。该功能可生成定制歌词或纯音乐音频，将向18岁以 上用户开放，并支持多种语言。谷歌表示，新功能将在Gemini桌面版率先推出，并将在未来几天登陆移 动应用。 Alphabet Inc．旗下谷歌与苹果公司正将音乐类生成式人工智能功能引入其核心消费者应用，此举凸显 了先进的AI工具在步入主流使用。 谷歌还表示，其广受欢迎的图像生成模型Nano Banana将为音乐作品生成定制封面，在用户分享曲目链 接时添加视觉效果。 在移动应用中加入音频创作工具有望加强谷歌相对OpenAI旗下ChatGPT的竞争力。谷歌去年11月发布的 Gemini 3模型获得投资者和用户的广泛好评，促使OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman拉响"红色警报"，推动 加快ChatGPT研发。 与此同时，苹果本周表示，用户很快可以利用人工智能在Apple Music创建播放列表。这一名为"Playlist Playground"的功能通过Apple Intelligence将文本提示 ...

The market’s focus this week will be on corporate earnings results and economic news. On Wednesday, Dec capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts (a proxy for capital spending) are expected to increase by +0.4% m/m. Also, Dec housing starts and building permits will be released. In addition, Jan manufacturing production is expected to climb by +0.4% m/m. Finally, the minutes of the Jan 27-28 FOMC meeting will be released. On Thursday, initial weekly unemployment claims are expected to declin ...

Core Viewpoint - Apple Music maintains its subscription pricing amidst rising costs from competitors like Spotify, which has increased its prices multiple times in recent years [4][5][6]. Group 1: Pricing Comparisons - Spotify's individual subscription price in the US has increased from $9.99 to $10.99 in 2023, and is set to rise to $11.99 in 2024 [6]. - The current price for Spotify Premium individual users is $12.99 per month, while Apple Music's price remains at $10.99 per month [7]. - For Spotify's Premium Family plan, the price has increased from $19.99 to $21.99 per month, compared to Apple Music's Family plan at $16.99 per month [7]. Group 2: Consumer Reactions - Users have expressed dissatisfaction with Spotify's continuous price hikes, comparing it unfavorably to Apple Music and QQ Music [4]. - Some consumers feel that after significant investments in Apple devices, services like Apple Music should be included or offered at a better value [2].

Company Performance - Spotify reported a 10% year-over-year revenue growth for 2025, reaching €17.236 billion, with a significant increase in net profit. However, Q4 revenue was €4.53 billion, growing only 7% year-over-year, indicating a slowdown compared to the previous quarters. The annual gross margin was 31.86%, which, despite being an improvement, fell short of some investors' expectations regarding cost optimization in the audio streaming sector [1][4] - The decline in revenue from the ad-supported business and sluggish growth in the North American market contributed to the weakening of the positive signals from the earnings report [1] Stock and Market Performance - On the day of the earnings report release, February 10, the stock price surged by 14.75%, followed by a further increase of 2.34% on February 11, resulting in a cumulative gain of nearly 17% over two trading days. However, profit-taking led to a stock price decline of 8.49% on February 12, with a trading volume of approximately $3.1 billion and a turnover rate of 3.35% [2] Industry and Risk Analysis - On February 12, the Nasdaq index fell by 2.03%, with technology stocks under pressure, particularly in the AI software sector. As a technology and media content platform, Spotify is susceptible to the overall sentiment in the tech sector. Concerns about AI tools potentially disrupting traditional content distribution models have intensified, leading to increased scrutiny of long-term growth prospects and subsequent sell-offs [3] - The depreciation of the US dollar against the euro negatively impacted revenue from the North American market. After adjusting for currency effects, the actual revenue growth rate was 13%, surpassing the nominal growth rate. The North American market faces intense competition from Apple Music and Amazon Music, prompting the company to consider price increases to maintain profitability, which may raise concerns about user retention [4]

Core Insights - Apple shares have appreciated 18.1% over the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's return of 10.2, driven by strong iPhone 17 sales and growth in Services [1][8] iPhone Sales Performance - iPhone 17 sales increased by 23.3% year over year to $85.27 billion, accounting for 59.3% of first-quarter fiscal 2026 net sales [1][8] - The strong sales of iPhone 17 significantly boosted revenues in China during the first quarter of fiscal 2026 [1] Services Growth - Services contributed 20.9% to quarterly revenues, growing 14% year over year to $30.01 billion, aligning with management guidance [1] - The Services segment includes advertising, AppleCare, Cloud Services, and digital content, achieving all-time revenue records in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 [6] AI Initiatives and Collaborations - Apple is enhancing iPhone features through Apple Intelligence tools and a collaboration with Alphabet, which is expected to improve the capabilities of Apple Intelligence [2][3] - The partnership with Alphabet aims to address execution challenges and enhance the adoption of Apple Intelligence among developers [5] Market Position and Valuation - Apple shares have outperformed Microsoft and Amazon but underperformed Alphabet in the past six months, with Alphabet shares rising by 53.9% [11] - Apple's stock is trading at a premium, with a forward price/sales ratio of 8.56, compared to the sector's 6.51 and Microsoft's 8.43 [14] Fiscal Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Apple's fiscal 2026 earnings has increased by 3.2% to $8.41 per share, indicating a 12.7% growth from fiscal 2025 [9] - The revenue estimate for fiscal 2026 is pegged at $461.12 billion, reflecting a 10.8% growth over fiscal 2025 [10] Conclusion - Apple's strong iPhone and Services business, along with the expanding AI capabilities from the collaboration with Alphabet, are expected to drive future growth, justifying a premium valuation despite competitive pressures [17]