预计阅读时长 8mins 彭博的报道显示，以 2020 年为例，在 Billboard 100 榜单中，三分之一都是节日歌曲。但是这三十多首歌曲 里，只有七首是当年新发行的作品，而这七首歌曲中，还有三首是翻唱，原唱作品只有四首。占据排行榜的多 数曲目其实是数年前甚至数十年前的老歌。 那么为什么圣诞节来临的时候，热门的节日歌曲还是那几首经典老歌呢？ 本文整理自播客「声动早咖啡」 Mariah Carey 的《All I Want For Christmas Is You》在 1994 年发行，但直到 2017 年才跻身十大热门单曲榜， 2019 年才首次在排行榜上登顶 。彭博的报道显示， Mariah Carey 的这首歌曲之所以能够在近几年流行，是因 为在 2013 年，她多次在 NBC 环球旗下的电视台进行演出，当时恰好是音乐流媒体服务的爆发时期，在 Spotify 平台上每 50 次圣诞歌曲的播放，就有 1 次是《All I Want For Christmas Is You》。 天气越冷，圣诞歌越「烫」？是谁在操控我们的 节日耳朵? 欢迎来到今天的轻解读，在上周的billboard百强单曲榜上，Mari ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid rise of Soda Music, a new player in the mobile music app industry, which has quickly gained a significant user base despite lacking exclusive rights to popular artists and a distinct artistic style [3][4]. Group 1: Market Position and User Growth - Soda Music has reached 120 million monthly active users by September 2025, marking a 90.7% year-on-year growth, surpassing KuGou Music and approaching NetEase Cloud Music's 147 million users [4]. - The app has positioned itself as a top competitor in the market, ranking among the top four music apps in terms of monthly active users [3]. Group 2: Unique Features and User Engagement - Soda Music employs a "brushing music" interface, allowing users to switch songs easily, similar to the experience on Douyin (TikTok), which enhances user engagement [6]. - The app integrates Douyin's long video content, allowing users to access a variety of media, including talk shows and educational videos, directly within the music app [6][8]. - Users have reported that Soda Music's recommendations are highly accurate, often feeling that the app understands their preferences better than they do [8][9]. Group 3: Monetization Strategy - Unlike competitors, Soda Music offers a completely free listening experience by allowing users to watch ads for access to the full music library, appealing to price-sensitive consumers [11][13]. - The app's subscription prices are lower than those of QQ Music, KuGou Music, and NetEase Cloud Music, making it an attractive option for users [11]. Group 4: Copyright Challenges and Strategies - Soda Music faces challenges regarding music copyright, as it lacks the exclusive rights that competitors like Tencent Music have secured [14]. - The app has focused on expanding its mainstream music rights and leveraging Douyin's ecosystem to create its own content sources [15][17]. Group 5: User Demographics and Market Impact - Soda Music attracts a different user demographic compared to its competitors, with a significant portion of its users coming from lower-tier cities and a higher male-to-female ratio [18][19]. - The app's growth has had a notable impact on KuGou Music, which has seen a decline in active users, indicating Soda Music's disruptive presence in the market [22]. Group 6: Douyin's Strategic Intent - Douyin's motivation for developing Soda Music is to capture the value generated by popular songs that originate on its platform, ensuring that it benefits directly from the music consumption that follows [25][26]. - The establishment of a complete music ecosystem, from creation to distribution, is part of Douyin's strategy to enhance user engagement and retention [26][28].

Core Insights - Tencent Music Entertainment Group reported its unaudited financial performance for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025, showing total revenue of RMB 8.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, driven primarily by online music service revenue of RMB 6.97 billion, which grew by 27.2% [1] - The net profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 2.15 billion, up 36.0% year-on-year, while the non-IFRS measure was RMB 2.41 billion, reflecting a 32.6% increase [1] - Despite stable financial growth, the user base of Tencent Music is under pressure, with monthly active users for online music services declining by 4.3% year-on-year to 551 million [1][2] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 reached RMB 8.46 billion, a 20.6% increase from the previous year [1] - Online music service revenue was RMB 6.97 billion, marking a 27.2% year-on-year growth [1] - Net profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 2.15 billion, a 36.0% increase year-on-year [1] - Monthly active users for online music services decreased to 551 million, down 4.3% year-on-year [2] User Metrics - Paid users for online music services reached 125.7 million, a 5.6% increase year-on-year [2] - Average revenue per user (ARPU) rose to RMB 11.9, reflecting a 10.2% year-on-year growth [2] - The decline in monthly active users has been a consistent trend, with a 16-quarter streak of year-on-year decreases [2] Business Development - Tencent Music is expanding its content ecosystem through collaborations with various labels and hosting international tours, such as G-DRAGON's concerts in Australia [5] - The company launched the first TMElive International Music Awards (TIMA), featuring 22 Asian artists and attracting over 20,000 attendees [5] - Strategic partnerships with labels like DREAMUS and KING RECORDS have been established to enhance the music library [5] Market Position - The overall market for music apps is facing challenges, with major competitors like KuGou, QQ Music, and KuWo experiencing a decline in monthly active users [2][4] - NetEase Cloud Music showed a slight increase in monthly active users, while ByteDance's Soda Music achieved a 90.7% year-on-year growth [2][4] Innovations and User Engagement - Tencent Music is focusing on enhancing user experience through technological upgrades, including AI-generated features and improved audio quality [10] - The membership system is designed to cater to different user needs, with a multi-tiered approach that includes free, ad-supported, and premium memberships [10] - The introduction of exclusive content and enhanced audio features has driven the growth of super memberships, contributing to ARPU increases [10] Internal Issues - Tencent Music faced internal corruption issues, leading to the dismissal of two key management personnel, although their actions were not directly related to current business operations [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase Cloud Music [3][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the company's competitive advantages and growth potential, particularly focusing on its young user base and the resilience of the online music industry [7][8]. - The company has improved its liquidity and profitability significantly, with a return to profitability in 2023 and continued improvement expected in 2024 and 2025 [7][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Review: Return to Core Product and Improvement in Liquidity and Profitability - The company has refocused on its music core by simplifying its app and enhancing music recommendations and community experiences [19][22]. - Major copyright returns have strengthened the content offering, covering top artists across various genres [22][24]. - Liquidity has improved, with the proportion of mid-to-long tail equity increasing from 22.8% at the end of 2022 to over 31% currently [24][25]. - The company achieved a gross margin exceeding 36% in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong recovery [7][26]. 2. Industry: Strong Anti-Cyclicality and Favorable Market Structure - The online music market in China is projected to reach 28.8 billion RMB in 2024, growing at 20% year-on-year, with a CAGR of 32% from 2017 to 2024 [35][36]. - Young users are the primary growth driver, with nearly 70% of new users being from the post-2000 generation [37][38]. - The competitive landscape is stable, with Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music as the dominant players [40][41]. 3. Growth Drivers: Focus on Young Users with High Certainty and Potential - The user structure influences the company's differentiated copyright strategy, targeting a high proportion of young users [54][62]. - The company aims to increase its paid user base significantly, with projections suggesting a potential membership of over 88 million if the payment wall is raised [9][62]. - The community engagement is high, with average daily usage time nearing 80 minutes, indicating strong user loyalty [69]. 4. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 7.9 billion, 8.8 billion, and 9.8 billion RMB, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 2.86 billion, 2.33 billion, and 2.74 billion RMB [6][8]. - The report estimates a target market capitalization of 76.5 billion HKD for 2026, based on comparative company valuations [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The online music industry is becoming a profitable business, with significant revenue growth reported by major players like Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music, driven by improved copyright management and user payment habits [1][3][6]. Financial Performance - Tencent Music reported total revenue of 8.44 billion yuan for Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, with online music service revenue growing by 26.4% to 6.85 billion yuan [1]. - NetEase Cloud Music's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 3.827 billion yuan, a decrease of 6% from the previous year, but online music service revenue increased by 15.9% to 2.967 billion yuan [1]. - Tencent Music's adjusted net profit for the quarter was 2.64 billion yuan, up 33% year-on-year [1]. Market Dynamics - Online music services now account for 80% of Tencent Music's total revenue and 77.5% of NetEase Cloud Music's total revenue, a significant shift from 2018 when these figures were much lower [2]. - The competitive landscape has evolved, with Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music now focusing on online music services rather than social entertainment services, which previously dominated their revenue streams [2][3]. Copyright Management - The decline of music piracy in China, from 95% to below 5%, has been pivotal in the growth of the digital music industry, leading to a "copyright accumulation competition" among platforms [4]. - Tencent Music has secured exclusive rights to a significant portion of the music library, forcing competitors like NetEase Cloud Music to pay high prices for licensing [4][5]. - The copyright wars have driven up the prices of music rights, but they have also fostered a culture of paid subscriptions among users [6][7]. User Engagement and Payment Models - Tencent Music's online music subscription revenue reached 4.38 billion yuan in Q2 2023, with a 17.1% year-on-year growth, and the number of paying users increased to 124 million [7]. - NetEase Cloud Music's subscription revenue grew to 2.47 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase [7]. - The platforms have developed a tiered subscription model to enhance user engagement and payment rates, effectively turning music into a sustainable profit-generating business [7]. Competitive Landscape - The rise of new players like "Soda Music" and "Tomato Listening" is challenging the dominance of Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music, leveraging lower subscription fees and algorithm-driven user engagement [14][15]. - The competition is intensifying as these new entrants utilize short video platforms to attract users, creating a potential shift in the market dynamics [14][17]. - The future of the online music industry may evolve into a three-way competition, with Tencent Music, NetEase Cloud Music, and new entrants vying for market share [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the music industry driven by short video platforms and streaming services, highlighting the significant shift in revenue sources and the impact on music creation and copyright dynamics [2][11][40]. Group 1: Revenue Trends - In 2024, short video and streaming revenues account for 69% of global recorded music revenue, while physical music sales have shrunk to 16.4%, and download revenues have declined for 12 consecutive years, now representing only 2.8% [2][15]. - The Chinese digital music industry is projected to reach a scale of 102.7 billion yuan, with the copyright music market exceeding 60 billion yuan [8]. Group 2: Music Copyright and Monetization - Music copyright encompasses the legal rights to use and disseminate songs, with revenue generated from various scenarios including advertisements, short videos, and live events [14]. - The monetization model has shifted from a one-time purchase of albums to ongoing revenue sharing based on play counts, with platforms paying artists monthly based on streaming data [15][17]. - For instance, Spotify pays between $3 to $7 per 1,000 streams, while domestic platforms offer around 1.5 yuan per 1,000 streams [17]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Creation Process - The industry has developed a standardized promotional process for songs, involving initial rights acquisition, targeted marketing through social media, and leveraging trending topics to maximize exposure [18]. - The "ROI" (Return on Investment) concept is now applied to music, where songs with low ROI are quickly abandoned, while successful tracks can yield significant returns on promotional investments [19]. - The creation of music has become increasingly influenced by commercial viability, often prioritizing catchy elements and rapid production cycles over artistic integrity [21][22]. Group 4: Distribution and Market Challenges - The music industry has undergone three distinct phases: the record industry era, the independent production era, and the current digital streaming era, each marked by changes in production, distribution, and consumption [34][35][36]. - The current landscape sees a high volume of new releases, with 1.35 million new songs in 2024, but a stark disparity in success, as only 0.8% achieve over 10 million streams [39]. - The concentration of wealth and success among a few artists and producers raises concerns about the sustainability and diversity of the music ecosystem [40][41]. Group 5: Future Considerations - The article emphasizes the need for fair distribution mechanisms and transparency in copyright transactions to ensure that creators receive appropriate compensation for their work [41][42]. - A balanced approach that fosters both commercial success and artistic expression is essential for the long-term health of the music industry [43].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) has shown strong performance in its Q2 2025 financial report, with online music subscriptions being the main driver of growth, despite a decline in monthly active users (MAU) over the past three years [2][3]. Group 1: Online Music Revenue - TME's total revenue for Q2 reached 8.44 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, with adjusted net profit at 2.64 billion RMB, up 33.0% [2]. - Online music service revenue grew to 6.85 billion RMB, a 26.4% increase from 5.42 billion RMB in the same period last year, driven by strong growth in subscription revenue and increased income from advertising and live performances [5]. - Online music subscription revenue was 4.38 billion RMB (611 million USD), up 17.1% from 3.74 billion RMB year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in average revenue per paying user [5][9]. - The number of SVIP subscribers has surpassed 15 million, marking a historical high, attributed to the introduction of a higher-tier membership option [8]. Group 2: Social Entertainment Decline - Revenue from social entertainment services decreased by 8.5% year-on-year to 1.59 billion RMB, with operating costs rising by 13.1% to 4.69 billion RMB [10]. - The decline in social entertainment revenue is linked to increased costs associated with IP, artist-related expenses, and advertising fees, while revenue-sharing costs have decreased due to the drop in income [10][12]. - The competitive landscape in music streaming is heavily influenced by copyright ownership, with TME controlling approximately 95% of the industry’s copyright resources through its various platforms [12]. Group 3: Future Potential - Analysts suggest that TME's current 20% subscription rate has significant room for growth compared to Spotify's over 40% [14]. - The company is expanding its content offerings and community engagement through initiatives like the "Bubble" product, which allows direct interaction between fans and artists [13].

Group 1 - The investigation into G-DRAGON and YG Entertainment's founder Yang Hyun-Suk is based on allegations of copyright infringement related to a performance and album release from 16 years ago [1][2] - The case originated from a complaint filed by composer A, who accused YG Entertainment of unauthorized reproduction and distribution of his song "G-DRAGON" during a concert in 2009, which was included in the live album "Shine a Light" [2][3] - The core issue revolves around the rights of adaptation and attribution, as A claims that his name was not credited when the song title was changed to "My Age is Thirteen" [3][4] Group 2 - The investigation highlights the complexities of copyright law in the music industry, particularly regarding the balance between original creators' rights and new interpretations of their work [6][7] - The case reflects broader issues in the music industry, including frequent copyright disputes in music variety shows, indicating a lack of understanding of adaptation and performance rights among professionals [6][7] - The evolving landscape of copyright law in China, including the 2020 amendments that strengthened protections for audiovisual works, suggests a need for clearer legal guidance on common creative practices like remixing and sampling [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The KTV industry is increasingly adopting AI-generated music videos (MVs) as a cost-saving measure, despite the negative reception from consumers regarding the quality and emotional connection of these AI-generated content [9][33][38]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Many KTV establishments across the country are embracing AI technology, but this shift is not solely about modernization; it is also a response to declining patronage and changing consumer behavior [18][19]. - The traditional role of KTV as a social gathering place has diminished, with younger consumers opting for alternative entertainment options such as online karaoke and various gaming activities [19][23][24]. - The rise of self-service KTV and the integration of singing services in restaurants and bars have further diluted KTV's market share [22][25]. Group 2: Cost Management - KTV operators face increasing pressure to manage costs, particularly regarding the expensive licensing fees associated with original MVs, which include music and video rights [27][28][34]. - AI-generated MVs significantly reduce costs, as they require minimal resources to produce compared to traditional MVs, making them an attractive option for KTVs looking to cut expenses [29][38]. - The complexity of negotiating MV rights for popular songs adds to the financial burden, prompting KTVs to seek AI solutions as a more straightforward alternative [34][37]. Group 3: Consumer Experience - The shift to AI-generated MVs has led to a decline in the emotional connection that consumers previously experienced with original MVs, resulting in a fragmented and disjointed viewing experience [44][48]. - Many consumers express dissatisfaction with the lack of coherence and emotional resonance in AI-generated content, which detracts from the overall KTV experience [41][56]. - The desire for authentic emotional experiences in entertainment is becoming a new consensus among younger audiences, who are increasingly rejecting overly commercialized and standardized content [55][62].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth and development of NetEase Cloud Music as a leading music community platform, emphasizing its focus on music discovery and sharing, and its significant user base of over 200 million monthly active users [2] - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with NetEase being the largest shareholder and founder Ding Lei holding nearly 30% of the shares as of the first half of 2025 [3] - The company has successfully reduced content costs, leading to an increase in gross margin to 33.7% in 2024, with a notable decrease in content service costs as a percentage of revenue from 98% in 2020 to 50% in 2024 [8] Group 2 - The music streaming industry is entering a mature phase, with the recorded music market in China growing at a rate of 9.6% year-on-year in 2024, making it the fifth largest market globally [9] - The complexity of the Chinese music industry is highlighted, with a fragmented copyright landscape and a long digital music industry chain involving multiple stakeholders [10] - The cessation of exclusive copyright models has led to a more competitive environment, with Tencent Music integrating mainstream copyrights and NetEase Cloud Music expanding its music library from 80 million in 2021 to 150 million in 2023 [12]