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HOKA Sales Surge Strengthens the Bull Case for Deckers Stock
ZACKS· 2025-12-26 19:00
Core Insights - Deckers Outdoors Corporation (DECK) has shown strong brand performance, particularly with its HOKA brand, which has driven recent quarterly results [1] Sales Performance - In Q2 of fiscal 2026, HOKA's net sales increased by 11.1% year over year, reaching $634.1 million compared to $570.9 million in the same period last year [1][9] - Overall net sales growth for Deckers was 9.1% [1] - HOKA's wholesale channel saw a 13% year-over-year increase, while Direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales grew by 8% [2][9] Growth Drivers - HOKA's revenue rose by 15% in the first half of the fiscal year, driven by its main road running franchises: Clifton, Bondi, and Arahi [3] - The brand's growth was further supported by expanded trail offerings through the Mafate franchise [3] - Strong sell-through rates and positive consumer response to product enhancements indicate ongoing demand for HOKA's innovative product lineup [3][5] International Performance - HOKA performed well across all international regions, with significant revenue growth in EMEA and China [4] - In EMEA, the brand achieved strong results supported by market share gains and robust reorder activity from specialty partners [4] Future Outlook - Despite anticipating a cautious consumer environment in the second half due to pricing and tariff impacts, HOKA's innovative product pipeline and international strength are expected to sustain its growth [5] - Deckers expects HOKA to be a key growth driver in fiscal 2026, with revenue projected to rise at a low-teens rate [5] Competitive Landscape - American Eagle Outfitters reported a 6% increase in net revenue to $1.36 billion in Q3 of fiscal 2025, with a gross profit rise of 5% [6] - Boot Barn Holdings posted an 18.7% year-over-year net sales growth to $505.4 million in Q2 of fiscal 2026, with gross profit increasing to 36.4% of net sales [7] Valuation Metrics - Deckers trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 15.07, which is lower than the industry average of 18.06 [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deckers' earnings implies year-over-year growth of 1.1% for the current fiscal year and 6.3% for the next [12]
Deckers(DECK) - 2026 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-23 21:32
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a revenue increase of 9% in the second quarter, with total revenue for the first half growing by 12% [7][26] - Diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased by 14% in the second quarter and by 17% in the first half [7][30] - Gross margin for the second quarter was 56.2%, up 30 basis points from 55.9% in the previous year [28][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - HOKA revenue increased by 15% in the first half, driven by updates to major road-running franchises and strong international performance [10][20] - UGG revenue rose by 12% in the first half, with men's footwear growing at twice the rate of the overall brand [20][21] - HOKA's wholesale channel grew by 13% in the second quarter, while DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) grew by 8% [26][27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International regions were the primary growth drivers for both HOKA and UGG, with UGG and HOKA revenue in international markets increasing by 38% year-over-year [7][20] - HOKA gained two points of market share in the U.S. road-running category and outpaced competition in Europe [11][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for continued international expansion and a balanced approach between DTC and wholesale channels, targeting a 50/50 split [9][18] - The focus remains on building brand awareness and consumer engagement through strategic marketing initiatives [8][19] - The company is committed to sustainable growth and long-term value creation for both HOKA and UGG brands [36][37] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding consumer sentiment in the U.S. due to macroeconomic pressures, but remains optimistic about brand positioning for the holiday season [40][43] - The company anticipates a more challenging environment in the second half due to tariff impacts and shifts in consumer preferences [34][35] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $282 million worth of shares during the second quarter, with $2.2 billion remaining authorized for share repurchases [31] - The guidance for fiscal year 2026 includes total revenue expectations of approximately $5.35 billion, with HOKA projected to grow in the low teens and UGG in the low to mid-single digits [32][33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance reinstatement and growth expectations for HOKA and UGG - Management indicated that the guidance reflects a cautious outlook due to anticipated consumer behavior changes and tariff impacts, but remains confident in brand strength [40][42][43] Question: DTC and wholesale channel dynamics - Management explained that while wholesale growth has been strong, DTC is expected to improve in the back half of the year as inventory dynamics normalize [56][57] Question: Long-term margin structure and tariff impacts - Management acknowledged that while tariff pressures will continue, they are committed to maintaining strong operating margins above 20% in the long term [58][60] Question: Price actions and consumer demand - Management noted that price increases have not negatively impacted demand, with strong sell-throughs for key styles [68][70] Question: Order book health and consumer behavior - Management expressed satisfaction with the order book for spring/summer 2026 and noted that consumer behavior has shown deeper valleys and higher peaks due to uncertainty [80][84]
Will HOKA & UGG's Global Surge Propel DECK's Sales Mix Toward 50%?
ZACKS· 2025-08-25 16:01
Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation's international business is a key growth driver, with HOKA and UGG showing strong performance abroad, particularly in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 where international revenues increased by 49.7% year over year to $463.3 million, significantly outperforming U.S. sales [1][10] International Business Performance - HOKA's international growth is robust, especially in the EMEA region, with record European reorders and strong consumer acquisition. Key products like Bondi, Clifton, and Arahi are leading sales, with Bondi and Clifton being top U.S. running franchises and doubling volumes in China for spring/summer 2025 [2] - UGG has also seen strong international growth, particularly in Europe and China. The brand's 365 strategy has expanded its appeal beyond cold-weather items, with new styles like the PeakMod clog gaining popularity, supported by effective marketing campaigns [3] Infrastructure and Strategic Investments - To meet rising demand, Deckers has invested in infrastructure, including changing its EMEA logistics provider and opening new stores in cities like Berlin, Milan, and various locations in China. These initiatives aim to enhance retail presence and build long-term brand equity [4] Future Outlook - Management anticipates that international markets will continue to outpace U.S. growth, with HOKA positioned as the fastest-growing brand and UGG expanding its seasonal and demographic reach. The goal is to increase international sales to 50% of total revenues, creating a more balanced and resilient business model [5] Competitive Landscape - In comparison, Steven Madden, Ltd. reported an 8% year-over-year increase in international revenues for the second quarter of 2025, while Wolverine World Wide, Inc. saw a 15.7% increase to $250 million, both outpacing U.S. sales [6][7][8] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Deckers shares have declined by 46.3% year to date, contrasting with the industry's decline of 9.6%. The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16.80X, below the industry average of 18.22X [9][12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deckers' fiscal 2026 earnings suggests a slight decline of 0.6%, while fiscal 2027 indicates an 8.3% increase, with recent upward revisions in earnings estimates for both fiscal years [13]