Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains the rating, but the specific rating is not clearly stated [1] Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of the oil and fat industry, including futures prices, spot prices, industry news, and production and trade data [1][2][4] According to the Related Catalog 1. Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Malaysian palm oil main contract was 4,546 ringgit/ton with a daily gain of 1.65%, and 4,560 ringgit/ton at night with a gain of 0.33%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract was at 51.29 cents/pound with a gain of 0.49% [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,060 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,450 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,250 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton [1] - **Base Difference**: The base difference of palm oil in Guangdong was - 168 yuan/ton, that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 310 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 206 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spread**: The price spread between the rapeseed and palm oil futures main contracts was 816 yuan/ton, the soybean and palm oil futures main contracts was - 1,088 yuan/ton, etc. [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Indonesia's Bio - diesel Policy**: Indonesia is moving towards a B50 biodiesel policy, planning to launch it next year. The implementation of the B50 policy will require 2,010 million liters of palm - based bio - fuel annually, compared with 1,560 million liters for the current B40 policy [2][3] - **Malaysia's Palm Oil Data**: From September 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports were estimated to be 1,013,140 tons, a 13.41% decrease from the previous month. Production was estimated to decrease by 2.42% (SPPOMA data) or 2.35% (MPOA data). The estimated inventory in September was 215 tons, a 2.5% decrease from August [4] - **Indonesia's Palm Oil Exports**: From January to August 2025, Indonesia exported 16.2 million tons of crude and refined palm oil, a 13.56% year - on - year increase, with 2.56 million tons exported in August alone [4] - **India's Oil Imports**: In September, India's soybean oil imports increased by 37.3% month - on - month to 505,000 tons, while total edible oil imports decreased by 0.7% to 1.61 million tons. Sunflower oil imports increased by 5.8% to 272,000 tons [5] - **US Crop Forecasts**: S&P Global Commodity Insights lowered the forecast of US soybean average yield to 53.0 bushels/acre and corn average yield to 185.5 bushels/acre [5] - **Brazil's Soybean Forecast**: StoneX predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach 178.6 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the September forecast [5] - **Argentina's Labor Issue**: Argentina's government suspended the planned indefinite strike of oil workers' unions in processing plants [6] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is both 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2, 2] interval [7]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - For palm oil, the supply and demand in the producing areas are both strong, and the strategy is to go long at low prices [1]. - For soybean oil, the U.S. soybeans are strong, and soybean oil will fluctuate at a high level [1]. Detailed Summaries from Different Sections 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,424 yuan/ton with a 0.66% increase, (night session) 9,486 yuan/ton with a 0.66% increase; trading volume was 384,052 lots, a decrease of 58,978 lots, and open interest was 226,780 lots, a decrease of 43,883 lots [1]. - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,592 yuan/ton with a 1.23% increase, (night session) 8,554 yuan/ton with a -0.44% change; trading volume was 183,673 lots, an increase of 43,470 lots, and open interest was 261,043 lots, a decrease of 45,207 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 10,069 yuan/ton with a 2.72% increase, (night session) 9,976 yuan/ton with a -0.92% change; trading volume was 298,318 lots, an increase of 27,033 lots, and open interest was 90,567 lots, a decrease of 26,912 lots [1]. - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price was 4,435 ringgit/ton with a 0.80% increase, (night session) 4,436 ringgit/ton with a 0.02% increase [1]. - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price was 53.40 cents/pound with a 0.49% increase [1]. - **Spot Data**: - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: Spot price was 9,380 yuan/ton, a price increase of 120 yuan/ton [1]. - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: Spot price was 8,820 yuan/ton, a price increase of 170 yuan/ton [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: Spot price was 10,190 yuan/ton, a price increase of 500 yuan/ton [1]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB price: 1,090 dollars/ton, a price increase of 10 dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis Data**: - Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was - 44 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 228 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was 121 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread was 574 yuan/ton, compared to 448 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread was - 914 yuan/ton, compared to - 886 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 66 yuan/ton, compared to - 34 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 16 yuan/ton, compared to 12 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 5 yuan/ton, compared to - 8 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - Malaysia has raised its reference price for crude palm oil in September, and the export tax has been increased to 10%. The September reference price is 4053.43 ringgit/ton (962.12 dollars/ton), compared to 3864.12 ringgit/ton in August with a 9% export tax [2][3]. - Indonesia has saved at least 3.68 billion dollars in foreign exchange this year by using palm - oil - based biodiesel. The palm oil blending ratio in its biodiesel is 40% (B40 biofuel), and the policy took effect at the beginning of this year. As of June, about 6.8 million kiloliters of B40 biodiesel had been distributed, achieving half of the 2025 target of 13.5 million kiloliters [3]. - As of the week ending August 6, Argentine farmers sold 868,100 tons of 2024/25 soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 28.8286 million tons. The local oil mills purchased 679,500 tons, and the export industry purchased 188,600 tons. They also sold 52,700 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 593,100 tons. The total soybean sales for all years in that week were 961,800 tons, and the cumulative sales reached 70.2008 million tons. The cumulative export sales registration of 2024/25 soybeans was 8.092 million tons, and that of 2025/26 soybeans was 0 tons [4]. - Ukraine's 2025 rapeseed production is expected to drop to 2.7 - 2.8 million tons, down from 3.7 million tons in 2024. The extreme drought in southern and central - eastern Ukraine has cut the sunflower seed production forecast to no more than 14 million tons, compared to the previous forecast of 16 million tons [4]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5].

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia will implement a mandatory 50% palm oil-based biodiesel blending policy (B50) starting in 2026, although the policy is still under research and testing, which may delay its launch until later in the year [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources reiterated the B50 blending policy, which is expected to increase biodiesel demand significantly [1] - The Indonesian Biodiesel Producers Association (APROBI) predicts that B50 will raise annual biodiesel demand from 15.6 million kiloliters to approximately 19 million kiloliters [1] - The Ministry estimates that around 19.7 million kiloliters of biodiesel will be needed to implement B50, necessitating the establishment of new production facilities [1] Group 2: Current Status and Future Goals - Indonesia currently enforces a B40 blending policy, with a consumption target of 13.5 million kiloliters for the year [1] - From January to June this year, B40 consumption reached 6.8 million kiloliters [1] - Critics warn that without stronger safeguards and clear planning, the implementation of B50 in 2026 could pose significant environmental and economic risks [1]