Report Title - "Grease Weekly Market Observation" [1] Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is expected to oscillate in the short term due to factors such as higher-than-expected production in Malaysia, slower export growth, potential inventory accumulation, and uncertain Indonesian biodiesel policies [33] - Soybean oil is likely to experience short - term oscillations. Uncertainty in US biodiesel policies and the potential resumption of soybean trade between China and the US are key factors, along with high domestic inventory [33] - Rapeseed oil is also expected to have short - term oscillations. Tensions in China - Canada relations, low domestic rapeseed inventory, and potential supply relief from Australian rapeseed are important considerations [33] Market Review - If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, the palm oil used for blending will reach about 17 million tons, 3 million tons higher than the current B40 policy, and the exportable supply will drop significantly [4] - The US government shutdown has suspended the release of key information, and attention should be paid to US biodiesel policies and Sino - US relations [4] - Brazil may not be able to increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 16% by March 2026, which may affect soybean crushing demand [5] - In the 11th week of the 2025/26 season, Canada's rapeseed export slowed down, with exports of 124,000 tons in the week ending October 19 [5] Fundamental Observation Supply - As of October 24, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 0.45 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 million tons [7] Demand - As of October 24, the total transaction volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key domestic oil mills was 7,032 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,799 tons [8] - As of October 24, the domestic soybean oil transaction volume was 66,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,500 tons [8] - As of October 24, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 14,510 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,600 tons [8] Inventory - As of October 24, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 607,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31,400 tons, or 5.45% [9] - As of October 24, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1,250,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons, or 2.15% [9] - The rapeseed oil inventory was 536,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,000 tons, or 2.72% [9] Cost and Profit - As of October 24, the CIF price of Malaysian palm oil was $1,094 per ton, the import cost was 9,332 yuan per ton, and the hedging profit for November and December shipments was negative [10] Production and Trade - MPOA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20 is estimated to increase by 10.77%. From October 18 - 24, 4 new palm oil purchase ships and 1 wash - out ship were added in China [11] - As of October 24, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3674 million tons, the operating rate was 65.13%, and the soybean oil production was 449,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,200 tons [11] Spot Prices - As of October 24, the spot price of Zhangjiagang's fourth - grade soybean oil was 8,240 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 140 yuan per ton [13] - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,000 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 250 yuan per ton [13] - The spot price of Nantong's fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,090 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan per ton [13] Malaysia's Palm Oil Situation Production - In September 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.8412 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%. From October 1 - 20, production is estimated to increase by 10.77% [15] Inventory - In September, the inventory was 2.361 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.2%, and at a high level year - on - year [16] Export - In August, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 1.4276 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.69%. From October 1 - 20, export volume increased compared to the same period in September [17] Consumption - Malaysia's domestic palm oil consumption was 333,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.21% [17] India's Palm Oil Import - In September, India's palm oil import volume dropped to a four - month low, with 829,000 tons imported, a month - on - month decrease of 161,500 tons, or 16.31% [19] Domestic Palm Oil Situation - In September, domestic palm oil import volume was 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 190,000 tons [21] - In September, palm oil demand was 251,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 122,700 tons [23] - As of October 24, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 184 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 69 yuan per ton [26] Domestic Soybean Oil Situation - As of October 24, the oil mill operating rate rose to 65.13%, and soybean oil production was 449,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,200 tons [28] - As of October 24, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1,250,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons [29] - In September, soybean oil export volume was 51,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,300 tons [29] Domestic Rapeseed Oil Situation - As of October 24, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 0.45 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory was 536,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,000 tons [31]

综合来看，随着各国的生物柴油掺混计划逐步落地，作为主要原料的豆油和棕榈油中期增量需求就有了 稳定的支持。加上相关国家本身就是全球油脂及原料的重要供应国。这意味着全球油脂供求中期面临收 紧的压力。这也为相关油脂品种价格提供重要支撑。 国际油价低迷带来压力 随着生物柴油在豆油、棕榈油消费中的比重提高，油脂品种同时兼具农产品和工业品的属性。而在生柴 政策推广整体利多油脂消费的同时，政策能否转变为实际的油脂消费增量也面临现实挑战。其中最直接 的阻力就来自于低迷的原油价格。在欧佩克+产油国逐步退出前两年减产政策，转而加大石油供应的背 景下，美国挑起的关税战延缓全球经济复苏的进程，也给石油需求带来直接的利空冲击。对原油市场供 需过剩的担忧拖累国际原油价格重心已经从去年的每桶70至80美元下滑到今年迄今的60美元上下，与 2022年95美元左右的均价相比更是跌去三成。低迷的油价压低了生物柴油掺混的性价比，也给未来生物 柴油需求前景蒙上阴影。 新华财经北京10月17日电 全球生物柴油行业近年来的快速发展，为作为农产品的植物油产品注入了"工 业"属性。尽管多国陆续出台多项政策推广生物柴油的使用，给豆油、棕榈油等相关油脂带来积极 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: The Malaysian crude palm oil futures market is oscillating narrowly. With potential positive factors like slowing production growth and increasing exports, there's a chance for it to strengthen. Dalian palm oil futures may follow suit if they can effectively stay above the moving average. After breaking through 9,500 yuan, a new upward space may open, maintaining a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength [1]. - Soybean oil: The negative impact of the US EPA's proposal is almost digested. If the upcoming China - US summit mentions China's purchase of US soybeans, CBOT soybeans will rise, boosting CBOT soybean oil. Domestic consumption is good during the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking period, and soybean oil export news also supports the market. The Q4 increase in soybean supply may drag down forward contracts, while the rise in CBOT soybeans may boost near - term contracts [1]. Sugar - The Brazilian sugar production in late August exceeded market expectations, causing the raw sugar price to decline significantly. The domestic sugar market is under pressure due to increased imports in August, weakening raw sugar prices, weakening processed sugar quotes, restricted sugar transportation in Guangxi, and a slowdown in spot purchases as the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking nears the end. It is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern [3]. Cotton - On the supply side, there is little willingness to rush to buy seed cotton, and new cotton can be hedged at a reasonable price, resulting in significant hedging pressure on cotton prices in the medium term. On the demand side, the downstream industry has little confidence in the peak season, and demand is weaker than in previous years. Overall, domestic cotton prices may face pressure in the medium term [4]. Corn - In the short term, the corn market will remain at a low level or may have a slight rebound due to the influence of the rhythm of corn supply and price support. In the medium term, the weak situation remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the grain - purchasing rhythm and weather conditions [6]. Eggs - With the egg - laying hen inventory at a high level and the egg - laying rate and egg weight increasing after the weather cools down, the egg supply is sufficient. As the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival approach, cold - storage eggs are being released, increasing supply pressure. Recently, egg prices have declined, reducing traders' purchasing intentions. However, as the festivals approach, supermarkets and e - commerce may increase their egg purchases for promotions. It is expected that egg prices will oscillate within a bottom - range [10]. Meal - The uncertainty of the biodiesel blending policy and the unclear demand outlook for US soybeans suppress US soybean oil and soybeans. The US soybean supply - strong and demand - weak pattern continues. Although the concern about the Q4 supply in China is gradually alleviated, the spot market is loose, and the terminal lacks stocking enthusiasm. There are many short - term negative factors for meal, but there is also a basis for a subsequent rebound [13]. Pigs - The supply pressure from farmers' increased slaughter is being realized. Although demand is slowly recovering, it is uncertain whether it can absorb the supply. The weight of retail pigs is still high, and there is continuous slaughter pressure before the double festivals. After the Ministry of Agriculture's meeting showed an intention to strengthen production capacity regulation, the slaughter pressure on farmers may increase, mainly affecting the market after mid - next year. In the short term, although there is state purchasing, the spot price lacks support, and near - term contracts will maintain a weak adjustment [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices**: On September 19, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8,620 yuan, up 80 yuan (0.94%) from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,328 yuan, up 44 yuan (0.53%). The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9,300 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.32%); the futures price of P2601 was 9,316 yuan, up 12 yuan (0.13%). The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,180 yuan, up 120 yuan (1.19%); the futures price of OI601 was 10,068 yuan, up 84 yuan (0.84%) [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spot spread was - 680 yuan, up 50 yuan (6.85%); the 2601 contract spread was - 1,062 yuan, up 24 yuan (2.21%). The rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread was 1,560 yuan, up 40 yuan (2.63%); the 2601 contract spread was 1,740 yuan, up 40 yuan (2.35%) [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On September 22, the price of sugar 2601 was 5,461 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan (- 0.24%); the price of sugar 2605 was 5,446 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (- 0.18%); the ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.18 cents/pound, up 0.05 cents (0.31%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 5,830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (- 0.17%); in Kunming, it was 5,845 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (- 0.09%) [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons (12.03%); the cumulative national sugar sales were 1,000 million tons, up 114 million tons (12.87%) [3]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On September 22, the price of cotton 2605 was 13,705 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.15%); the price of cotton 2601 was 13,720 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan (- 0.33%); the ICE US cotton main contract was 66.30 cents/pound, down 0.62 cents (- 0.93%) [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,198 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan (- 0.33%); the CC Index of 3128B was 15,283 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan (- 0.24%) [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 148.17 million tons, down 33.85 million tons (- 18.6%); the industrial inventory was 89.23 million tons, down 3.19 million tons (- 3.5%) [4]. Corn - **Corn**: On September 22, the price of corn 2511 was 2,168 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (- 0.41%); the basis was 112 yuan, up 9 yuan (8.74%) [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 was 2,463 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan (- 0.32%); the basis was 97 yuan, up 8 yuan (8.99%) [6]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On September 22, the price of the egg 11 - contract was 3,112 yuan/500KG, down 20 yuan (- 0.64%); the price of the egg 10 - contract was 3,025 yuan/500KG, down 18 yuan (- 0.59%) [10]. - **Related Indicators**: The egg - laying hen chick price was 2.60 yuan/feather, unchanged; the culled hen price was 4.67 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan (1.30%); the egg - feed ratio was 2.50, up 0.07 (2.88%); the breeding profit was - 17.89 yuan/feather, up 4.71 yuan (20.84%) [10]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 2,950 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of M2601 was 3,014 yuan, up 21 yuan (0.70%); the basis was - 64 yuan, down 21 yuan (- 48.84%) [13]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2,600 yuan, up 30 yuan (1.17%); the futures price of RM2601 was 2,522 yuan, up 52 yuan (2.11%); the basis was 78 yuan, down 22 yuan (- 22.00%) [13]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,980 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the soybean No.1 main contract was 3,904 yuan, unchanged [13]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: On September 22, the price of the pig 2511 contract was 12,825 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the price of the pig 2601 contract was 13,350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (0.15%) [15]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Henan was 12,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Shandong, it was 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Sichuan, it was 12,370 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [15]. - **Related Indicators**: The daily sample slaughter volume was 149,450 heads, up 842 heads (0.57%); the weekly white - striped pig price was 0.00 yuan, down 19.97 yuan (- 100.00%); the weekly piglet price was 26.00 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly sow price was 32.50 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan (- 0.03%); the weekly slaughter weight was 128.45 kg, up 0.13 kg (0.10%); the weekly self - breeding profit was - 24 yuan/head, down 41.3 yuan (- 245.13%); the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit was - 199 yuan/head, down 37.4 yuan (- 23.08%); the monthly fertile sow inventory was 4,042 million heads, down 1 million heads (- 0.02%) [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Affected by the decline of US soybean oil futures, the crude palm oil futures have adjusted at a high level. Supported by potential positive factors such as slow - down or decline in production due to rainstorms and continuous improvement in exports, the crude palm oil futures may return above 4,500 ringgit. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures market is in high - level shock adjustment, and there is a risk of a rapid downward break in prices [1]. - Soybean oil: The biofuel blending obligation redistribution proposal of the US Environmental Protection Agency lacks a clear mechanism for small refinery exemptions, leading to short - selling of CBOT soybean oil futures. In the domestic market, soybean oil supply is sufficient, and consumption is increasing. The market is concerned about the soybean import volume in the fourth quarter [1]. 2.2 Corn and Corn Starch - In the short term, the market supply and demand are slightly loose, the futures price fluctuates weakly, but there is strong support around 2,150. In the medium term, the situation remains weak, and attention should be paid to the new grain purchase rhythm and opening price [2]. 2.3 Meal - The bio - diesel blending policy has high uncertainty, the demand prospect of US soybeans is unclear, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. The domestic concern about supply in the fourth quarter is gradually alleviated, but there are many short - term negative factors, suppressing soybean meal, yet there is a basis for subsequent rebound [5]. 2.4 Live Pigs - The slaughter of the breeding end increases, and the spot pressure is continuously realized. The demand is slowly recovering, but whether it can smoothly absorb the supply is uncertain. The Ministry of Agriculture intends to strengthen production capacity regulation, the spot price lacks support, and the near - month contracts are in weak adjustment. Attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 and 3 - 7 reverse spread opportunities [6][7]. 2.5 Sugar - The supply pressure causes the raw sugar price to drop significantly. The import volume increases, the actual transaction price of processed sugar falls below 6,000, and the domestic sales data in August is poor. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will maintain a weak pattern [10]. 2.6 Cotton - In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range. In the long term, it will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed [11]. 2.7 Eggs - Recently, the increase in demand may drive up the egg price, which is expected to reach the annual high. However, the high inventory and cold - storage egg release may suppress the increase. After the replenishment of traders next week, the demand may weaken, and the egg price in some areas may decline slightly [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On September 18, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,540 yuan/ton, down 1.73% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,284 yuan/ton, down 0.98%. The basis of Y2601 was 256 yuan/ton, down 20.99% [1]. - **Palm oil**: On September 18, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,270 yuan/ton, down 1.90%; the futures price of P2601 was 9,304 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. The basis of P2601 was - 34 yuan/ton, down 230.77% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: On September 18, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,060 yuan/ton, down 0.49%; the futures price of Ol601 was 9,984 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The basis of Ol601 was 76 yuan/ton, down 31.53% [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On September 18, the futures price of corn 2511 was 2,177 yuan/ton, up 0.74%; the basis was 103 yuan/ton, down 20.16% [2]. - **Corn starch**: On September 18, the futures price of corn starch 2511 was 2,471 yuan/ton, up 0.73%; the basis was 89 yuan/ton, down 16.82% [2]. 3.3 Meal - **Soybean meal**: On September 18, the spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 2,950 yuan/ton, down 1.01%; the futures price of M2601 was 2,993 yuan/ton, down 0.30%. The basis of M2601 was - 43 yuan/ton, down 95.45% [5]. - **Rapeseed meal**: On September 18, the spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2,570 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of RM2601 was 2,470 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The basis of RM2601 was 100 yuan/ton, down 9.09% [5]. 3.4 Live Pigs - On September 18, the futures price of live pigs 2511 was 12,830 yuan/ton, down 1.31%; the spot price in Henan was 12,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Sugar - On September 18, the futures price of sugar 2601 was 5,474 yuan/ton, down 0.99%; the spot price in Nanning was 5,840 yuan/ton, down 0.51% [10]. 3.6 Cotton - On September 18, the futures price of cotton 2605 was 13,725 yuan/ton, down 0.90%; the Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15,249 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [11]. 3.7 Eggs - On September 18, the futures price of the egg 11 - contract was 3,132 yuan/500KG, up 0.51%; the egg - producing area price was 3.73 yuan/jin, down 0.91% [14].

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia will implement a mandatory 50% palm oil-based biodiesel blending policy (B50) starting in 2026, although the policy is still under research and testing, which may delay its launch until later in the year [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources reiterated the B50 blending policy, which is expected to increase biodiesel demand significantly [1] - The Indonesian Biodiesel Producers Association (APROBI) predicts that B50 will raise annual biodiesel demand from 15.6 million kiloliters to approximately 19 million kiloliters [1] - The Ministry estimates that around 19.7 million kiloliters of biodiesel will be needed to implement B50, necessitating the establishment of new production facilities [1] Group 2: Current Status and Future Goals - Indonesia currently enforces a B40 blending policy, with a consumption target of 13.5 million kiloliters for the year [1] - From January to June this year, B40 consumption reached 6.8 million kiloliters [1] - Critics warn that without stronger safeguards and clear planning, the implementation of B50 in 2026 could pose significant environmental and economic risks [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Core View - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. Weak US export demand and policy uncertainties constrained price movements. Multiple key decisions on US biofuel policies are yet to be finalized, leading to the oil price fluctuations [3] Summary by Related Content Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,190.00 yuan/ton, a change of +114 yuan or +1.41% from the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,724.00 yuan/ton, a change of +12.00 yuan or +0.16%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,427.00 yuan/ton, a change of +24.00 yuan or +0.26% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,590.00 yuan/ton, a change of +60.00 yuan or +0.70%, with a spot basis of P09 + 400.00, a change of -54.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 7,930.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton or +0.13%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 206.00, a change of -2.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,610.00 yuan/ton, a change of +30.00 yuan or +0.31%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 183.00, a change of +6.00 yuan [1] Market News Aggregation - According to a report released by the US Department of Agriculture on May 27, as of May 25, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 68%, 5 percentage points lower than market expectations. The good - to - excellent rate of spring wheat was only 45%, far from the market - expected 71% [2] - Malaysia will increase the biodiesel blending ratio for ground - transportation vehicles from B10 to B20. Currently, Malaysia has a 10% mandatory biodiesel blending policy nationwide, while Labuan, Langkawi, and Sarawak (except Bintulu) have implemented the B20 standard. Similar pilot projects have been launched at multiple major ports [2] - Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, has implemented a B40 mandatory blending program and is considering further increasing it to B50 [2] - The C&F price of Canadian canola (July shipment) is 613 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian canola (August shipment) is 603 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (July shipment) is 455 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of US West Coast soybeans (July shipment) is 450 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (July shipment) is 438 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton [2] - Import soybean premium quotes: The premium for the Gulf of Mexico (July shipment) is 210 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day; the premium for the US West Coast (July shipment) is 183 cents/bushel, unchanged; the premium for Brazilian ports (July shipment) is 145 cents/bushel, unchanged [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) is 1,042 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) is 1,015 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The C&F quote for imported rapeseed oil: The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (June shipment) is 1,050 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) is 1,030 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]