Market Overview - As of November 19, 2025, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance, with lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon rising over 4%, while soda ash fell over 3% [3][4] - The A-share market experienced a volatile trading session, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18% and the ChiNext Index up 0.25% [6] - The bond market saw a decline across all maturities, with the 30-year contract down 0.41%, reflecting increased market divergence on long-term interest rates [7] Commodity Insights - Palm oil prices increased significantly, reaching a three-week high, while soybean oil also saw a rise, indicating strong demand despite a weak supply outlook for Malaysian palm oil [8][9] - The coal market is under pressure due to concerns over potential supply increases, with the focus on energy production stability during the heating season [11] - Gold and silver futures rose by 2.01% and 3.84% respectively, influenced by recent employment data indicating a decrease in private sector jobs [12][13] Specific Commodity Analysis - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 6.18% due to high demand from the power and storage sectors, although there are concerns about potential supply disruptions from upcoming mine restarts [14] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon contracts rose by 4.57% and 4.63% respectively, driven by reduced production rates in key regions [15] - Soda ash prices fell sharply, with the main contract dropping to a new low, reflecting weak demand and a slowdown in new orders [16] Shipping and Logistics - The European shipping index declined by 2.66%, with a notable drop in freight rates for container shipments, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [19]

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/11/14 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 9月25日止当周美国大豆出口销售合计净增87.05万吨 美国农业部（USDA）周四公布的出口销售报告显示，9月25日止当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净增87.05万 吨。当周，美国下一年度大豆出口销售净增0万吨。 当周，美国大豆出口装船61.13万吨。 当周，美国当前市场年度大豆新销售93.69万吨，下一市场年度大豆新销售0万吨。 9月25日止当周美国豆粕出口销售合计净增40.73万吨 美国农业部（USDA）公布的出口销售报告显示，9月25日止当周，美国当前市场年度豆粕出口销售净减21.62万吨， 较之前一周减少372%，较前四周均值减少718%。 当周，美国下一年度豆粕出口销售净增62.35万吨。 当周，美国豆粕出口装船28.93万吨，较之前一周增加27%，较前四周均值增加13%。 当周，美国当前市场年度豆粕新销售6.86万吨，下一市场年度豆粕新销售67.5万吨。 Conab：巴西2025/26年度大豆产量预估为1.776亿吨 巴西国家商品供应公司（CONAB）最新预测数据显示，2025/26年度大豆产量预估为创纪录的1 ...

Core Insights - The Indonesian government is considering implementing a Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) policy for palm oil companies, requiring them to prioritize domestic crude palm oil supply before exporting the remainder to support the upcoming B50 biodiesel program [1][2] Group 1: Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) - The DMO policy mandates that companies must meet domestic market demand before exporting products, which will redirect some crude palm oil originally intended for export to the domestic market [1] - The B50 biodiesel plan involves a blend of 50% palm oil-based biodiesel and 50% petro-diesel, with the current mandatory blending ratio being 40% (B40) [1] - The implementation of B50 is expected to require 19 million tons of crude palm oil, an increase of approximately 4 million tons compared to the B40 phase, while palm oil exports will be reduced by 5.3 million tons [1] Group 2: B50 Biodiesel Program - The Indonesian government has completed trials for the application of B50 in various transportation modes, including trains, ships, heavy equipment, and vehicles [1] - The official rollout of the B50 program is planned for the second half of 2026, pending confirmation of its cleanliness and environmental benefits [1] Group 3: Additional Measures - In addition to the DMO, the government is evaluating two other measures to ensure the supply of biodiesel raw materials: strengthening oil palm cultivation management and establishing new oil palm plantations [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The Indonesian government plans to enforce the B50 biodiesel program in the second half of 2026, which will generate an additional demand for 530,000 tons of crude palm oil. However, the progress of the US biodiesel policy remains uncertain due to the government shutdown [4]. - The September MPOB report showed an increase in the ending inventory to 2.36 million tons, which was bearish for the market. But the production in the producing areas will enter the off - season, leading to a gradual contraction in supply. In India, the palm oil imports decreased in September due to more soybean oil imports. In China, the palm oil trading was sluggish, with weekly inventory decreasing and expected to be stable in the future. The domestic soybean oil inventory is at a five - year high, while the import of rapeseed products is expected to decrease [4]. - The Sino - US trade conflict has escalated, reducing the market's expectation of easing at the APEC meeting. The US dollar index continues to fluctuate at a low level, and the oil price is weakening. The Malaysian palm oil production is entering the off - season, and there is support from the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the September MPOB report showed lower - than - expected consumption, increasing the ending inventory and limiting price increases. It is expected that palm oil will fluctuate widely in October with strong support at the bottom [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1:油脂市场行情回顾 - Since September, the oil and fat sector has been oscillating. In the domestic market at the end of September, the palm oil 01 contract fell 88 to 9228 yuan/ton (-0.94%), the soybean oil 01 contract fell 218 to 8140 yuan/ton (-2.61%), and the rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 255 to 10044 yuan/ton (+2.60%). In the overseas market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 55 to 4351 ringgit/ton (-1.25%), the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 2.66 to 49.44 cents/pound (-5.11%), and the ICE rapeseed active contract fell 23.6 to 603.9 Canadian dollars/ton (-3.76%). In the spot market, the palm oil in Guangzhou fell 260 to 9060 yuan/ton (-2.79%), the first - grade soybean oil in Shandong fell 170 to 8300 yuan/ton (-2.01%), and the imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu rose 350 to 10250 yuan/ton (+3.54%) [9]. 3.2:基本面分析 3.2.1: MPOB Report - In August 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.855 million tons (+2.35% month - on - month), exports were 1.3247 million tons (-0.29% month - on - month), imports were 49,000 tons (-19.66% month - on - month), and the ending inventory increased to 2.2025 million tons (+4.18% month - on - month). The report was slightly bearish [19]. 3.2.2: Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - From September 1 - 30, 2025, the Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 2.42% month - on - month according to SPPOMA, and by 2.35% according to MPOA, with an estimated total production of 1.81 million tons in September. Different institutions' data on September exports varied, with ITS showing a 9.6% increase, AmSpec showing a 7.3% increase, and SGS showing a 13.41% decrease compared to the previous month [22][23]. 3.2.3: Indonesian Situation - In July 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 5.606 million tons, exports were 3.537 million tons, domestic consumption was 2.034 million tons, and the inventory was 2.568 million tons. Compared with the previous year and the five - year average, there were significant changes in production, exports, and consumption [29]. 3.2.4: Indian Vegetable Oil Imports - In August 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.62 million tons. Among them, palm oil imports were 991,000 tons, soybean oil imports were 368,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports were 257,000 tons. There were changes compared with the previous month and the previous year [31][32]. 3.2.5: Chinese Oil and Fat Imports - In August 2025, China's palm oil imports were 340,000 tons, rapeseed oil imports were 138,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports were 20,000 tons. The cumulative imports from January to August also showed different trends compared with the previous year [36]. 3.2.6: Domestic Oil and Fat Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.3794 million tons, with soybean oil inventory at 1.2487 million tons, palm oil inventory at 552,200 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory at 578,500 tons. There were changes compared with the previous week and the previous year [41]. 3.3:总结与后市展望 - The Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy will generate additional demand for palm oil, but the US biodiesel policy has uncertainties. The September MPOB report was bearish, but the production will enter the off - season. In India, palm oil imports decreased, and in China, the palm oil inventory is expected to be stable. The Sino - US trade conflict has escalated, and the US dollar index and oil price are weak. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate widely in October with strong support at the bottom [44][45].

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Report's Core View - Palm oil is expected to be relatively strong among varieties due to the early B50 road test. - Soybean oil is likely to fluctuate with US soybeans and is difficult to reach new highs [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data** - Palm oil: The daytime closing price was 9,570 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 3.71%, and the night - session closing price was 9,596 yuan/ton with a 0.27% increase. Trading volume was 509,596 lots, up 110,994 lots, and open interest was 379,054 lots, up 46,907 lots [2]. - Soybean oil: The daytime closing price was 8,332 yuan/ton with a 2.36% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,374 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase. Trading volume was 336,990 lots, up 136,756 lots, and open interest was 506,255 lots, down 8,109 lots [2]. - Rapeseed oil: The daytime closing price was 10,248 yuan/ton with a 2.03% increase, and the night - session closing price was 10,197 yuan/ton with a - 0.50% decrease. Trading volume was 209,869 lots, up 28,319 lots, and open interest was 329,150 lots, up 25,710 lots [2]. - Malaysian palm oil: The closing price was 4,594 ringgit/ton with a 1.06% increase, and the night - session closing price was 4,595 ringgit/ton with a 0.09% increase [2]. - CBOT soybean oil: The closing price was 50.97 cents/pound with a - 0.99% decrease [2]. - **Spot Data** - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): The spot price was 9,460 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton [2]. - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): The spot price was 8,680 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan/ton [2]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The spot price was 10,450 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [2]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB price: The spot price was 1,120 dollars/ton, up 30 dollars/ton [2]. - **Basis Data** - Palm oil (Guangdong): The basis was - 110 yuan/ton [2]. - Soybean oil (Guangdong): The basis was 348 yuan/ton [2]. - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The basis was 202 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spread Data** - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread: The previous trading day's spread was 678 yuan/ton, compared with 816 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2]. - Soybean - palm oil futures spread: The previous trading day's spread was - 1,238 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,088 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2]. - Palm oil 1 - 5 spread: The previous trading day's spread was 210 yuan/ton, compared with 192 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2]. - Soybean oil 1 - 5 spread: The previous trading day's spread was 258 yuan/ton, compared with 244 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2]. - Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread: The previous trading day's spread was 519 yuan/ton, compared with 523 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - Indonesia will implement a mandatory B50 biodiesel program starting in the second half of 2026, which will eliminate the need for diesel imports [3]. - The B50 biodiesel program in Indonesia in 2026 will generate an additional demand for 530,000 tons of crude palm oil [4]. 3. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0 - Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 Note: The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains the rating, but the specific rating is not clearly stated [1] Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of the oil and fat industry, including futures prices, spot prices, industry news, and production and trade data [1][2][4] According to the Related Catalog 1. Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Malaysian palm oil main contract was 4,546 ringgit/ton with a daily gain of 1.65%, and 4,560 ringgit/ton at night with a gain of 0.33%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract was at 51.29 cents/pound with a gain of 0.49% [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,060 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,450 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,250 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton [1] - **Base Difference**: The base difference of palm oil in Guangdong was - 168 yuan/ton, that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 310 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 206 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spread**: The price spread between the rapeseed and palm oil futures main contracts was 816 yuan/ton, the soybean and palm oil futures main contracts was - 1,088 yuan/ton, etc. [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Indonesia's Bio - diesel Policy**: Indonesia is moving towards a B50 biodiesel policy, planning to launch it next year. The implementation of the B50 policy will require 2,010 million liters of palm - based bio - fuel annually, compared with 1,560 million liters for the current B40 policy [2][3] - **Malaysia's Palm Oil Data**: From September 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports were estimated to be 1,013,140 tons, a 13.41% decrease from the previous month. Production was estimated to decrease by 2.42% (SPPOMA data) or 2.35% (MPOA data). The estimated inventory in September was 215 tons, a 2.5% decrease from August [4] - **Indonesia's Palm Oil Exports**: From January to August 2025, Indonesia exported 16.2 million tons of crude and refined palm oil, a 13.56% year - on - year increase, with 2.56 million tons exported in August alone [4] - **India's Oil Imports**: In September, India's soybean oil imports increased by 37.3% month - on - month to 505,000 tons, while total edible oil imports decreased by 0.7% to 1.61 million tons. Sunflower oil imports increased by 5.8% to 272,000 tons [5] - **US Crop Forecasts**: S&P Global Commodity Insights lowered the forecast of US soybean average yield to 53.0 bushels/acre and corn average yield to 185.5 bushels/acre [5] - **Brazil's Soybean Forecast**: StoneX predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach 178.6 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the September forecast [5] - **Argentina's Labor Issue**: Argentina's government suspended the planned indefinite strike of oil workers' unions in processing plants [6] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is both 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2, 2] interval [7]

Group 1 - Indonesia is considering adopting B45 biodiesel before implementing the B50 biodiesel plan [1] - The B50 biodiesel plan aims to increase the use of biofuels in the country's energy mix [1] - The shift to B45 is seen as a transitional step to enhance the biodiesel program's feasibility and effectiveness [1] Group 2 - The decision reflects Indonesia's commitment to sustainable energy and reducing reliance on fossil fuels [1] - The government is likely to assess the impact of B45 on the environment and economy before full implementation [1] - This move may influence the biodiesel market dynamics in Southeast Asia [1]

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia will implement a mandatory 50% palm oil-based biodiesel blending policy (B50) starting in 2026, although the policy is still under research and testing, which may delay its launch until later in the year [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources reiterated the B50 blending policy, which is expected to increase biodiesel demand significantly [1] - The Indonesian Biodiesel Producers Association (APROBI) predicts that B50 will raise annual biodiesel demand from 15.6 million kiloliters to approximately 19 million kiloliters [1] - The Ministry estimates that around 19.7 million kiloliters of biodiesel will be needed to implement B50, necessitating the establishment of new production facilities [1] Group 2: Current Status and Future Goals - Indonesia currently enforces a B40 blending policy, with a consumption target of 13.5 million kiloliters for the year [1] - From January to June this year, B40 consumption reached 6.8 million kiloliters [1] - Critics warn that without stronger safeguards and clear planning, the implementation of B50 in 2026 could pose significant environmental and economic risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia is researching the B50 biodiesel plan, with studies expected to be completed by the end of the year [1] Group 1 - Indonesia's Energy Ministry is preparing to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% [1] - The completion of the B50 testing work is anticipated by the end of the year [1] - The implementation of B50 by 2026 is still uncertain, pending calculations on palm oil demand and funding support [1]