Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Malay high-frequency data has improved, but there is still significant pressure in December. The market is expected to rebound in the short term and then continue to decline, awaiting the release of MPOB's December data. For rapeseed oil, influenced by traders taking delivery and obstacles in Australian imports, the price has risen. Short-term observation is recommended, and it is not advisable to chase the upward trend. For soybean oil, wait for the USDA's January report and pay attention to the adjustment of the new US soybean yield per unit area [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Spot Price - 24-degree palm oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8650, 8590, and 8490 respectively, with a decrease of 20 compared to December 26, 2025. The palm oil main contract spot basis in South China for Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu was 5000, 4000, and 3000 (or 2000) respectively [1] - First-grade soybean oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8250, 8390, and 8400 respectively, with no change compared to December 26, 2025 [1] - Fourth-grade rapeseed oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9880, 9930, and 10130 respectively, with an increase of 100 compared to December 26, 2025. The soybean oil main contract spot basis in North China for Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu was 2000, 1500, and 1000 respectively [1] Futures Data - The price difference between the soybean and palm oil main contracts was -694 on December 29, 2025, an increase of 38 compared to December 26, 2025. The price difference between the rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1222 on December 29, 2025, an increase of 12 compared to December 26, 2025 [1] - The palm oil warehouse receipts were 260 on December 29, 2025, with no change compared to December 26, 2025. The soybean oil warehouse receipts were 28264 on December 29, 2025, with no change compared to December 26, 2025. The rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3456 on December 29, 2025, with no change compared to December 26, 2025 [1] Industry News - On December 19, the Indonesian energy minister said that the country had launched a road test for B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, which is expected to last about six months. The mandatory use policy for B50 biodiesel is likely to be officially implemented in the second half of 2026 [2] - MPOC predicts that the crude palm oil price will fluctuate between 3800 and 4100 ringgit per ton in January next year, supported by seasonal low production and increased demand before the Lunar New Year and Ramadan [2] - According to MPOA, Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44% compared to the same period last month. According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last month; exports from December 1 - 20 increased by 2.4% compared to the same period last month; exports from December 1 - 15 decreased by 15.9% compared to the same period last month. According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 15 decreased by 16.4% compared to the same period last month [2] - ANEC predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in December will be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 3.33 million tons. The US Department of Agriculture announced that a private exporter reported the sale of 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 fiscal year [2] - According to the Indian Solvent Extractors' Association, India's palm oil imports in November increased by about 5% compared to October, reaching 632,341 tons. Soybean oil imports decreased by more than 18% compared to the previous month, reaching 370,661 tons. Sunflower oil imports decreased by 45% compared to the previous month, reaching 142,953 tons, the lowest in two years. India also imported 5,000 tons of rapeseed oil from the UAE. The decrease in soybean and sunflower oil imports led to a 13.3% decrease in India's total edible oil imports in November compared to the previous month, reaching a seven - month low of 1.15 million tons. In November, India imported a record - high 69,919 tons of soybean oil from China due to discounts offered by Chinese crushers due to oversupply [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high-frequency data in Malaysia has improved, but there is still significant pressure in December. It is expected that the market will continue to decline after a short-term rebound, waiting for the release of MPOB's December data. For rapeseed oil, influenced by traders' purchases and obstacles in Australian imports, the price has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and avoid chasing high prices. For soybean oil, wait for the USDA's January report and pay attention to the adjustment of the new US soybean yield per unit area [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - **24-degree Palm Oil**: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8,650, 8,590, and 8,490 respectively, down 20 from December 26, 2025. The spot basis of palm oil futures in South China was 5,000, 4,000, and 3,000 [1] - **First-grade Soybean Oil**: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged at 8,250, 8,390, and 8,400 respectively compared to December 26, 2025 [1] - **Fourth-grade Rapeseed Oil**: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9,880, 9,930, and 10,130 respectively, up 100 from December 26, 2025. The spot basis of soybean oil futures in North China was 2,000, 1,500, and 1,000 [1] Futures Data - **Soybean-Palm Oil Main Contract Spread**: On December 29, 2025, it was -694, up 38 from December 26, 2025 [1] - **Rapeseed-Soybean Main Contract Spread**: On December 29, 2025, it was 1,222, up 12 from December 26, 2025 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil remained unchanged at 260, 28,264, and 3,456 respectively from December 26 to 29, 2025 [1] Industry News - **Indonesia**: On December 19, 2025, the Indonesian Energy Minister stated that the country had launched the road test of B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, which is expected to last about six months, and the mandatory use policy is likely to be officially implemented in the second half of 2026 [2] - **Malaysia**: MPOC expects the crude palm oil price to fluctuate between 3,800 and 4,100 ringgit per ton in January next year. According to MPOA, from December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.44% compared to the same period last month. According to ITS, from December 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last month; from December 1 - 20, exports increased by 2.4%; from December 1 - 15, exports decreased by 15.9%. According to AmSpec, from December 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 16.4% compared to the same period last month [2] - **Brazil**: ANEC expects Brazil's soybean exports in December to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 3.33 million tons [2] - **USA**: The USDA announced that private exporters reported the sale of 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 fiscal year [2] - **India**: According to SEA data, India's palm oil imports in November increased by about 5% to 632,341 tons compared to October. Soybean oil imports decreased by more than 18% to 370,661 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 45% to 142,953 tons, reaching a two - year low. The total edible oil imports in November decreased by 13.3% to 1.15 million tons, a seven - month low. In November, India imported 69,919 tons of soybean oil from China, a record high [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills are shut down, but with Australian rapeseed arriving and potential Canadian imports, supply is expected to increase. Also, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens demand. The rapeseed meal price has maintained a narrow - range fluctuation recently. Attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US [2]. - The rapeseed oil market has a structurally tight supply currently, with oil mills shut down and inventory decreasing, which supports the price. However, with Australian rapeseed arriving and potential improvement in China - Canada trade relations, future supply pressure will increase. The abundant supply and good substitution of soybean oil keep rapeseed oil demand at a basic level. Affected by the rise of palm oil, rapeseed oil has rebounded slightly, and the short - term downward trend may slow down [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil is 8864 yuan/ton (up 120), rapeseed meal is 2337 yuan/ton (up 14), ICE rapeseed is 594.5 CAD/ton (down 5.6), and domestic rapeseed is 5481 yuan/ton (up 33) [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) is - 4 yuan/ton (down 2), rapeseed meal (5 - 9) is - 56 yuan/ton (up 3) [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 200067 lots (down 8112), rapeseed meal is 604362 lots (up 5874) [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is - 28709 lots (down 1210), rapeseed meal is - 57003 lots (up 17456) [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 3876 sheets (down 50), rapeseed meal is 0 sheets [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9270 yuan/ton (down 230), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2420 yuan/ton (up 40) [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil is 9388.75 yuan/ton (down 230), the import cost of rapeseed is 7294.69 yuan/ton (down 83.67) [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main - contract basis is 526 yuan/ton (down 29), rapeseed meal main - contract basis is 83 yuan/ton (up 26) [2]. - Substitute prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8310 yuan/ton (up 80), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8270 yuan/ton (up 20), soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3100 yuan/ton [2]. - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil is 1040 yuan/ton (down 80), rapeseed - palm oil is 1020 yuan/ton (down 80), soybean - rapeseed meal is 680 yuan/ton (down 40) [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 92.27 million tons (up 1.31 million tons), and the annual forecast for rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons [2]. - Rapeseed imports are 0 tons (down 11.53 tons), and the import rapeseed crushing profit is 564 yuan/ton (up 100) [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 0.1 tons (up 0.1), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0% [2]. - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil are 14 tons (down 2), and rapeseed meal imports are 22.06 tons (up 6.29) [2]. Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 tons (down 0.15), coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 tons (down 0.02) [2]. - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 29.8 tons (down 2.4), East China rapeseed meal inventory is 18.61 tons (down 0.75) [2]. - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 0.4 tons (down 0.15), South China rapeseed meal inventory is 24.8 tons (up 1.4) [2]. - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 0.9 tons (up 0.9), weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0 tons (down 0.45) [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production is 2977.9 tons (up 20.9), and the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 6057 billion yuan (up 858) [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production is 427.6 tons (down 67.4) [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 16.65% (down 0.05), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 16.65% (down 0.06) [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.82% (up 0.17), 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.85% (up 0.09) [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.49% (up 1.54), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.52% (up 1.55) [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 14.73% (up 1.67), 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 14.73% (up 0.67) [2]. Industry News - On December 19, ICE rapeseed futures fell for the sixth consecutive trading day, with the most - actively traded March contract falling below 600 CAD/ton for the first time since March 2025 [2]. - The US soybean export season has abundant supply, and Brazil is expected to have a high - yield soybean harvest. The US is facing competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans. China's soybean purchases have slowed down [2]. - Canada's AAFC raised the ending inventory forecast of Canadian rapeseed for the 2025/26 season by 450,000 tons to 2.95 million tons [2]. - Indonesia started the road test of B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, and the test is expected to last about six months. The mandatory use policy of B50 biodiesel is likely to be officially implemented in the second half of 2026 [2]. Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions reported by My Agricultural Network on Monday, and the development of China - Canada trade relations [2]

Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis Main Contracts and Basis On December 19, 2025, the price of the SC main contract slightly declined to 426.6 yuan per barrel, a decrease of 2.8 yuan or 0.65% from the previous day, showing a downward trend during the session (falling from a high of 436.5 yuan). The prices of the WTI and Brent main contracts remained stable at 55.9 dollars per barrel and 59.71 dollars per barrel, respectively, with no change. In terms of spreads, the SC - Brent spread weakened to 0.88 dollars per barrel, narrowing by 0.39 dollars (a decline of 30.71%); the SC - WTI spread also weakened to 4.69 dollars per barrel, narrowing by 0.39 dollars (a decline of 7.68%); the Brent - WTI spread remained stable at 3.81 dollars per barrel. The spread between SC continuous and SC - 3 weakened to -3.9 yuan per barrel, deepening by 0.6 yuan (a decline of 18.18%), indicating increased pressure on near - month contracts [1]. Position and Trading Volume As of the week ending December 16, 2025, ICE Brent crude oil speculators' net long positions decreased by 74,876 lots to 32,940 lots, and ICE diesel net long positions decreased by 19,818 lots to 38,760 lots, indicating that market sentiment has turned cautious, and the outflow of speculative funds may reflect concerns about geopolitical risks. No specific trading volume data was provided [2]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis Supply Side On December 20, the Iraqi National Oil Company stated that the oil export agreement between Baghdad and Erbil was progressing smoothly, suggesting stable supply from OPEC+ members. On the same day, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked a Caspian Sea oil and gas drilling platform of Russia's Lukoil, intensifying geopolitical risks and potentially disrupting exports in the Caspian region. The US intercepted an oil tanker related to Venezuelan crude oil transportation last weekend and is still tracking another similar tanker, indicating a continuous tightening of policy enforcement. On December 19, Japan and Kazakhstan signed an energy cooperation agreement, which may increase Central Asian supply in the medium - to - long term. The exploration director of Mexico's state - owned oil company is expected to resign, bringing short - term uncertainties [3]. Demand Side The Indonesian Energy Minister announced the launch of the B50 biodiesel road test, planning to implement it in the second half of 2026, which may boost biodiesel demand in the long term but has limited short - term impact. There is no direct information on refined oil profits and refinery equipment. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has not been updated, and overall, the demand side lacks strong drivers [3]. Inventory Side As of the week ending December 12, US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.274 million barrels to 424.417 million barrels, with analysts expecting a decrease of about 1.1 million barrels. Crude oil inventories at the Cushing delivery center in Oklahoma decreased by 742,000 barrels to 20.86 million barrels. US gasoline inventories increased by 4.808 million barrels to 225.627 million barrels, with analysts expecting an increase of about 2.1 million barrels. Distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, increased by 1.712 million barrels to 118.5 million barrels, with analysts expecting an increase of about 1.2 million barrels [4]. Price Trend Judgment Crude oil prices may enter a bottom - oscillation range, but geopolitical factors support prices to strengthen within the range. On the supply side, geopolitical risks support oil prices, but the stable Iraqi export agreement and the resumption of Venezuelan exports alleviate concerns about supply disruptions; OPEC+'s idle capacity and the limited impact of sanctions. On the demand side, the Indonesian B50 biodiesel test provides long - term benefits, but short - term refined oil demand lacks catalysts, and the delayed release of Chinese demand data increases uncertainties. Overall, geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions offset weak demand, and close attention should be paid to the development of international geopolitical situations [6].

Report Date - The report is dated December 22, 2025 [1] News Highlights - Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to arrange the implementation of decisions from the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing the need to speed up the formulation of implementation plans and strengthen cross - departmental cooperation [2] - Maersk completed a ship's passage through the Mandeb Strait and into the Red Sea on the 19th, the first in nearly two years, and is considering gradually resuming east - west routes via the Suez Canal and the Red Sea [2] - China's Cyberspace Administration and the China Securities Regulatory Commission are cracking down on online false information related to the capital market and have dealt with accounts spreading rumors and illegally recommending stocks [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the premium and discount of designated delivery warehouses for coking coal futures in Tangshan, Hebei and Tianjin from 170 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton, effective from the JM2701 contract [2] - Indonesia started road - testing B50 biodiesel (50% palm oil) two weeks ago, with the test expected to last about six months, and the mandatory use policy likely to be implemented in the second half of 2026 [3] Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are p - xylene, PTA, Shanghai gold, asphalt, and PP [4] Night - session Performance Plate Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.40%, precious metals 32.69%, oilseeds and fats 8.62%, soft commodities 3.31%, non - ferrous metals 24.35%, coal, coke, steel and minerals 10.75%, energy 2.55%, chemicals 10.40%, grains 1.32%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.62% [4] Asset Performance Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.36% daily, 0.05% monthly, and 16.07% annually; the S&P 500 rose 0.88% daily, - 0.21% monthly, and 16.20% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.75% daily, - 0.65% monthly, and 28.07% annually, etc. [7] Fixed - income - The 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.10% daily, 0.19% monthly, and - 0.71% annually; the 5 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.09% daily, 0.21% monthly, and - 0.54% annually; the 2 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.04% daily, 0.11% monthly, and - 0.47% annually [7] Commodity - The CRB Commodity Index rose 0.64% daily, - 2.12% monthly, and - 0.55% annually; WTI crude oil rose 0.98% daily, - 3.17% monthly, and - 21.37% annually; London spot gold rose 0.23% daily, 2.90% monthly, and 65.43% annually, etc. [7] Other - The US dollar index rose 0.28% daily, - 0.73% monthly, and - 9.01% annually; the CBOE Volatility Index fell - 11.62% daily, - 8.81% monthly, and - 14.06% annually [7]

Report Summary 1. Core Information - A private exporter reported selling 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [1] - Analysts estimated that US soybean export sales for the week ending December 4, 2025, would net increase by 80 - 200 million tons, with 80 - 200 million tons for the 2025 - 26 year and 0 tons for the 2026 - 27 year. US soybean meal export sales were expected to net increase by 20 - 50 million tons, and US soybean oil export sales were expected to net increase by 0.5 - 2.5 million tons, all for the 2025 - 26 year with 0 tons for the 2026 - 27 year [1] - ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil product exports from December 1 - 20, 2025, were 851,057 tons, a 2.4% increase from the 831,005 tons exported in the same period last month [1] - Indonesia launched a road test for B50 biodiesel (50% palm - oil content) two weeks ago, and the mandatory use policy is likely to be implemented in the second half of 2026 [1] 2. Spot Price Information | Date | Soybean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/15 | 3050 | 2510 | 8440 | 8530 | 9750 | | 2025/12/16 | 3050 | 2520 | 8380 | 8440 | 9540 | | 2025/12/17 | 3040 | 2500 | 8310 | 8370 | 9470 | | 2025/12/18 | 3020 | 2510 | 8270 | 8330 | 9420 | | 2025/12/19 | 3010 | 2490 | 8150 | 8250 | 9230 | [1][9]

Market Overview - As of November 19, 2025, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance, with lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon rising over 4%, while soda ash fell over 3% [3][4] - The A-share market experienced a volatile trading session, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18% and the ChiNext Index up 0.25% [6] - The bond market saw a decline across all maturities, with the 30-year contract down 0.41%, reflecting increased market divergence on long-term interest rates [7] Commodity Insights - Palm oil prices increased significantly, reaching a three-week high, while soybean oil also saw a rise, indicating strong demand despite a weak supply outlook for Malaysian palm oil [8][9] - The coal market is under pressure due to concerns over potential supply increases, with the focus on energy production stability during the heating season [11] - Gold and silver futures rose by 2.01% and 3.84% respectively, influenced by recent employment data indicating a decrease in private sector jobs [12][13] Specific Commodity Analysis - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 6.18% due to high demand from the power and storage sectors, although there are concerns about potential supply disruptions from upcoming mine restarts [14] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon contracts rose by 4.57% and 4.63% respectively, driven by reduced production rates in key regions [15] - Soda ash prices fell sharply, with the main contract dropping to a new low, reflecting weak demand and a slowdown in new orders [16] Shipping and Logistics - The European shipping index declined by 2.66%, with a notable drop in freight rates for container shipments, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the global oilseeds and oils market, including export sales data from the US, production forecasts from Brazil, import data from India, and policy developments in Indonesia [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - For the week ending September 25, US current - market - year soybean export sales net increased by 870,500 tons, with 0 tons for the next - year; export shipments were 611,300 tons; new sales were 936,900 tons for the current year and 0 tons for the next [1] - For the same week, US current - market - year bean meal export sales net decreased by 216,200 tons (372% less than the previous week and 718% less than the four - week average), next - year net increased by 623,500 tons; export shipments were 289,300 tons (27% more than the previous week and 13% more than the four - week average); new sales were 68,600 tons for the current year and 675,000 tons for the next [1] Brazil's Soybean Production Forecasts - CONAB predicts Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production at a record 177.6 million tons (slightly lower than October's 177.67 million tons), planted area at 49.06 million hectares (down from October's 49.08 million hectares), and exports at 112.1 million tons (5.11% more than the previous year) [1] - IBGE forecasts Brazil's 2025 soybean production at 165.913102 million tons (14.5% more than the previous year), planted area at 47.676233 million hectares (3.6% more than the previous year), and 2026 production at 167.683455 million tons (1.1% more than 2025) [1] India's Oil Imports - In October, India's palm oil imports dropped 28% to 602,381 tons, soybean oil imports fell 17% to 454,619 tons, sunflower oil imports declined 5% to 260,548 tons, and total vegetable oil imports decreased 21% to 1.33 million tons [1] - In the 2024/25 season, India's vegetable oil imports reached 16.36 million tons (higher than the previous year's 16.23 million tons), palm oil imports were 7.58 million tons (lower than the previous year's 9.01 million tons), soybean oil imports were 5.47 million tons (higher than the previous year's 3.44 million tons), and sunflower oil imports were 2.94 million tons (lower than the previous year's 3.5 million tons) [1] Indonesia's Policies - Indonesia will start B50 biodiesel road tests in early December and plans to implement the B50 blending standard in the second half of next year (up from 40% this year) to reduce import fuel dependence [1] - Indonesia's palm oil exports may drop 11% - 12% in 2026 due to the B50 policy [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices for various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from November 7 to 13, 2025 are provided [4]

Core Insights - The Indonesian government is considering implementing a Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) policy for palm oil companies, requiring them to prioritize domestic crude palm oil supply before exporting the remainder to support the upcoming B50 biodiesel program [1][2] Group 1: Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) - The DMO policy mandates that companies must meet domestic market demand before exporting products, which will redirect some crude palm oil originally intended for export to the domestic market [1] - The B50 biodiesel plan involves a blend of 50% palm oil-based biodiesel and 50% petro-diesel, with the current mandatory blending ratio being 40% (B40) [1] - The implementation of B50 is expected to require 19 million tons of crude palm oil, an increase of approximately 4 million tons compared to the B40 phase, while palm oil exports will be reduced by 5.3 million tons [1] Group 2: B50 Biodiesel Program - The Indonesian government has completed trials for the application of B50 in various transportation modes, including trains, ships, heavy equipment, and vehicles [1] - The official rollout of the B50 program is planned for the second half of 2026, pending confirmation of its cleanliness and environmental benefits [1] Group 3: Additional Measures - In addition to the DMO, the government is evaluating two other measures to ensure the supply of biodiesel raw materials: strengthening oil palm cultivation management and establishing new oil palm plantations [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The Indonesian government plans to enforce the B50 biodiesel program in the second half of 2026, which will generate an additional demand for 530,000 tons of crude palm oil. However, the progress of the US biodiesel policy remains uncertain due to the government shutdown [4]. - The September MPOB report showed an increase in the ending inventory to 2.36 million tons, which was bearish for the market. But the production in the producing areas will enter the off - season, leading to a gradual contraction in supply. In India, the palm oil imports decreased in September due to more soybean oil imports. In China, the palm oil trading was sluggish, with weekly inventory decreasing and expected to be stable in the future. The domestic soybean oil inventory is at a five - year high, while the import of rapeseed products is expected to decrease [4]. - The Sino - US trade conflict has escalated, reducing the market's expectation of easing at the APEC meeting. The US dollar index continues to fluctuate at a low level, and the oil price is weakening. The Malaysian palm oil production is entering the off - season, and there is support from the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the September MPOB report showed lower - than - expected consumption, increasing the ending inventory and limiting price increases. It is expected that palm oil will fluctuate widely in October with strong support at the bottom [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1:油脂市场行情回顾 - Since September, the oil and fat sector has been oscillating. In the domestic market at the end of September, the palm oil 01 contract fell 88 to 9228 yuan/ton (-0.94%), the soybean oil 01 contract fell 218 to 8140 yuan/ton (-2.61%), and the rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 255 to 10044 yuan/ton (+2.60%). In the overseas market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 55 to 4351 ringgit/ton (-1.25%), the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 2.66 to 49.44 cents/pound (-5.11%), and the ICE rapeseed active contract fell 23.6 to 603.9 Canadian dollars/ton (-3.76%). In the spot market, the palm oil in Guangzhou fell 260 to 9060 yuan/ton (-2.79%), the first - grade soybean oil in Shandong fell 170 to 8300 yuan/ton (-2.01%), and the imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu rose 350 to 10250 yuan/ton (+3.54%) [9]. 3.2:基本面分析 3.2.1: MPOB Report - In August 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.855 million tons (+2.35% month - on - month), exports were 1.3247 million tons (-0.29% month - on - month), imports were 49,000 tons (-19.66% month - on - month), and the ending inventory increased to 2.2025 million tons (+4.18% month - on - month). The report was slightly bearish [19]. 3.2.2: Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - From September 1 - 30, 2025, the Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 2.42% month - on - month according to SPPOMA, and by 2.35% according to MPOA, with an estimated total production of 1.81 million tons in September. Different institutions' data on September exports varied, with ITS showing a 9.6% increase, AmSpec showing a 7.3% increase, and SGS showing a 13.41% decrease compared to the previous month [22][23]. 3.2.3: Indonesian Situation - In July 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 5.606 million tons, exports were 3.537 million tons, domestic consumption was 2.034 million tons, and the inventory was 2.568 million tons. Compared with the previous year and the five - year average, there were significant changes in production, exports, and consumption [29]. 3.2.4: Indian Vegetable Oil Imports - In August 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.62 million tons. Among them, palm oil imports were 991,000 tons, soybean oil imports were 368,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports were 257,000 tons. There were changes compared with the previous month and the previous year [31][32]. 3.2.5: Chinese Oil and Fat Imports - In August 2025, China's palm oil imports were 340,000 tons, rapeseed oil imports were 138,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports were 20,000 tons. The cumulative imports from January to August also showed different trends compared with the previous year [36]. 3.2.6: Domestic Oil and Fat Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.3794 million tons, with soybean oil inventory at 1.2487 million tons, palm oil inventory at 552,200 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory at 578,500 tons. There were changes compared with the previous week and the previous year [41]. 3.3:总结与后市展望 - The Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy will generate additional demand for palm oil, but the US biodiesel policy has uncertainties. The September MPOB report was bearish, but the production will enter the off - season. In India, palm oil imports decreased, and in China, the palm oil inventory is expected to be stable. The Sino - US trade conflict has escalated, and the US dollar index and oil price are weak. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate widely in October with strong support at the bottom [44][45].